CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

[BuffinCali]

I don't know that the Reddit post was more than wishful thinking and mental masturbation. But I do believe that there is tremendous value in a new conference formed from an ACC-PAC merger.

If doing this, I'd try to go big and take teams from the Big 12, maybe G5 and give Notre Dame whatever it wanted to be part of it. You don't have to stop at 16.

I think I want to play with this. My suspicion is that a 16-20 team conference could be created that paid as much per team as the B1G or SEC. Maybe more.

I could see a 20 team conference with , let's say, an ACC division and PAC division. The pay for each school would have to be significant. I don't remember the numbers, but read the operational travel costs for UCLA in the Big10 were ridiculously high

 

[NW Buff]

I don't know that the Reddit post was more than wishful thinking and mental masturbation. But I do believe that there is tremendous value in a new conference formed from an ACC-PAC merger.

If doing this, I'd try to go big and take teams from the Big 12, maybe G5 and give Notre Dame whatever it wanted to be part of it. You don't have to stop at 16.

I think I want to play with this. My suspicion is that a 16-20 team conference could be created that paid as much per team as the B1G or SEC. Maybe more.

I still think the only thing that stops the B1G/SEC from being the only two is if the "best of the rest" band together and build a third super league. Poaching from each other and picking up the random G5 school or two is not going to save the Pac12/ACC/Big12 and there's no way that all three (or even two) stay at a P5 level with the way things are going. How many G5 schools can you add before you simply become a G5 conference?

Of course, the three conferences are going to keep fighting over the scraps and **** talking each other while the B1G/SEC keep walking in and taking what they want.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I still think the only thing that stops the B1G/SEC from being the only two is if the "best of the rest" band together and build a third super league. Poaching from each other and picking up the random G5 school or two is not going to save the Pac12/ACC/Big12 and there's no way that all three (or even two) stay at a P5 level with the way things are going. How many G5 schools can you add before you simply become a G5 conference?

Of course, the three conferences are going to keep fighting over the scraps and **** talking each other while the B1G/SEC keep walking in and taking what they want.

The problem is that Fox and ESPN are the two biggest spenders on CFB and they don’t have any motivation to create a third league that competes.

 

[NW Buff]

The problem is that Fox and ESPN are the two biggest spenders on CFB and they don’t have any motivation to create a third league that competes.

That’s totally fair and probably part of why the other P5 leagues are scrambling the way they are. It’s in Fox and ESPN’s interest to keep it to the big 2

 

[hokiehead]

I'm not seeing the value in a Pac / ACC merger unless it's to shed dead weight of the Wakes, BCs, Oregon States, etc...

But the top eight valued schools in the ACC could do that without the Pac and the increased expenses of coast to coast travel.

There seems to be perception that bigger is better, but I'm not seeing the rationale for that.

Intuitively, it seems a reformed ACC of UNC, UVA, Clemson, FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech, Miami and Louisville would have more value per school than a merged mega-conference.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I'm not seeing the value in a Pac / ACC merger unless it's to shed dead weight of the Wakes, BCs, Oregon States, etc...

But the top eight valued schools in the ACC could do that without the Pac and the increased expenses of coast to coast travel.

There seems to be perception that bigger is better, but I'm not seeing the rationale for that.

Intuitively, it seems a reformed ACC of UNC, UVA, Clemson, FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech, Miami and Louisville would have more value per school than a merged mega-conference.

That’s not enough inventory. Same issue the Pac is having at 10 and why they are being directed to expand (possibly). They aren’t going to vote to dissolve the ACC GOR just to do an 8 team conference.

The idea with the Pac is that they convince 8 members to dissolve for the explicit intent to join the new conference that would warrant more money/school than they are currently getting

 

[skibum]

I'm not seeing the value in a Pac / ACC merger unless it's to shed dead weight of the Wakes, BCs, Oregon States, etc...

But the top eight valued schools in the ACC could do that without the Pac and the increased expenses of coast to coast travel.

There seems to be perception that bigger is better, but I'm not seeing the rationale for that.

Intuitively, it seems a reformed ACC of UNC, UVA, Clemson, FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech, Miami and Louisville would have more value per school than a merged mega-conference.

Yak answered it, but there's only 7 conference games with 8 teams and no championship game.

Which means less content for the league to sell, and filling out 5 ooc games is both logistically challenging and hard to do in a revenue maximizing way unless you have a scheduling agreement with another conference.


Like an 8 team PAC for instance.

And if you're going to do that, might as well merge and get a championship game to which you can sell the rights as well...

 

[hokiehead]

That’s not enough inventory. Same issue the Pac is having at 10 and why they are being directed to expand (possibly). They aren’t going to vote to dissolve the ACC GOR just to do an 8 team conference.

The idea with the Pac is that they convince 8 members to dissolve for the explicit intent to join the new conference that would warrant more money/school than they are currently getting

Why isn't it enough inventory? Not trying to be argumentative, i just don't get it.

Seven real conference rivalry games every year and freedom to schedule non-conf games relevant to each school. UVA schedules VT, Maryland, Wake and two body bag games every year.

It sure seems like it should work.

 

[NW Buff]

Why isn't it enough inventory? Not trying to be argumentative, i just don't get it.

Seven real conference rivalry games every year and freedom to schedule non-conf games relevant to each school. UVA schedules VT, Maryland, Wake and two body bag games every year.

It sure seems like it should work.

An eight team conference means, at most, eight weeks worth of games if you include a championship game. That championship game is going to always be a repeat too. So you’re trying to fill up the other 5 or 6 weeks of the season with ooc games

 

[hokiehead]

An eight team conference means, at most, eight weeks worth of games if you include a championship game. That championship game is going to always be a repeat too. So you’re trying to fill up the other 5 or 6 weeks of the season with ooc games

1. That's what I said in the post you quoted. Why is it a problem?
2. Anticipating you have a good answer for #1, then what about a ten team ACC (add VT and NCSU to the others I listed)?

Seems to me, the PAC and ACC can create more value per school by shedding weight than by merging.

 

[White_Rabbit]

from what I saw in that post, ACC needs a whole mess of teams to vote to dissolve the GOR they're stuck under, hence why merging with the P10 would be ideal

 

[NW Buff]

1. That's what I said in the post you quoted. Why is it a problem?
2. Anticipating you have a good answer for #1, then what about a ten team ACC (add VT and NCSU to the others I listed)?

Seems to me, the PAC and ACC can create more value per school by shedding weight than by merging.

I think I answered 1 in the second part of my post. With bye weeks, the conference would need to fill too many weeks with non conference games. The networks won’t want that because it’s going to be unpredictable and probably a lot of bad games (game vs directional school) that nobody will watch.

I don’t think 8 or 10 really matters for the ACC, Big12 or Pac-12. They are competing for eyes with two super conferences that can put up games 12+ weeks per year. So yeah, a bit more money but you’re still fighting over scraps (imho)

 

[PAHIBuff]

Seems to me that a PAC and ACC merger wouldn't be much more than just a (very occasional) scheduling agreement with a CCG thrown in at the end. Where's the value if I'm a broadcaster/media company? I'm still stuck with a bunch of western teams playing mainly each other mostly at night, and except for Clemson and Florida State, a bunch of ACC football wannabes in basketball country, .......with apologies to Mack Brown.

 

[hokiehead]

I think I answered 1 in the second part of my post. With bye weeks, the conference would need to fill too many weeks with non conference games. The networks won’t want that because it’s going to be unpredictable and probably a lot of bad games (game vs directional school) that nobody will watch.

I don’t think 8 or 10 really matters for the ACC, Big12 or Pac-12. They are competing for eyes with two super conferences that can put up games 12+ weeks per year. So yeah, a bit more money but you’re still fighting over scraps (imho)

I guess i see that as true only if the other power conferences refuse to schedule OOC power games.

If that became the case, then it sure seems a real alliance between a "slimmer" ACC and Pac would lead to the remaining 16-20 schools having more value per school than forcing them together into the same conference.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Seems to me that a PAC and ACC merger wouldn't be much more than just a (very occasional) scheduling agreement with a CCG thrown in at the end. Where's the value if I'm a broadcaster/media company? I'm still stuck with a bunch of western teams playing mainly each other mostly at night, and except for Clemson and Florida State, a bunch of ACC football wannabes in basketball country, .......with apologies to Mack Brown.

Because they’d be getting the best matchups of the Pac, the best matchups of the ACC and at least 16 Pac vs ACC matchups with a CCG.

9 conference games. 3 fixed opponents and 6 rotational that they can divvy up how they want. The Reddit guy said 7 against your regional teams and 2 vs the other region, but they could choose to do 6/3, or 5/4 if they really want, depending on the costs.

 

[Buffs35]

What about the top 8 from the pac, and acc with the best 3 to 6 of the little 12? Might be a good 3rd conference.

 

[PAHIBuff]

Because they’d be getting the best matchups of the Pac, the best matchups of the ACC and at least 16 Pac vs ACC matchups with a CCG.

9 conference games. 3 fixed opponents and 6 rotational that they can divvy up how they want. The Reddit guy said 7 against your regional teams and 2 vs the other region, but they could choose to do 6/3, or 5/4 if they really want, depending on the costs.

As you’ve said before Yak, it all just depends on how many deep pocket big players are left in the CFB content provider universe.

 

[#1 pick]

from what I saw in that post, ACC needs a whole mess of teams to vote to dissolve the GOR they're stuck under, hence why merging with the P10 would be ideal

8 teams but why not invite all ACC teams knowing good and well many will bail for the SEC and B1G but at least the Pac-12 can survive while killing off the ACC

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

8 teams but why not invite all ACC teams knowing good and well many will bail for the SEC and B1G but at least the Pac-12 can survive while killing off the ACC

I don’t think the worst brands from the ACC keeps the Pac 10 in much of a better position. ESPN would just shift their money to the SEC where the top brands would be scooped up. They aren’t going to pay for a Syracuse vs Washington and BC vs Colorado type of setup

 

[hokiehead]

Ok.

Notre Dame, UNC, FSU and Clemson are the four schools that would add value to the B1G or SEC.

for four other ACC schools to vote to dissolve, they would need assurance their landing spot was better than an ACC with those in it.

Under what scenarios does this happen? Would the "next best" ACC schools add enough to the PAC 10 to make expansion worthwhile?

This is as far as I've gotten.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Ok.

Notre Dame, UNC, FSU and Clemson are the four schools that would add value to the B1G or SEC.

for four other ACC schools to vote to dissolve, they would need assurance their landing spot was better than an ACC with those in it.

Under what scenarios does this happen? Would the "next best" ACC schools add enough to the PAC 10 to make expansion worthwhile?

This is as far as I've gotten.

Miami as well and I could see Duke being desirable with UNC. GT would also be highly coveted by the B1G

 

[hokiehead]

Miami as well and I could see Duke being desirable with UNC. GT would also be highly coveted by the B1G

I see all three of those as doubtful, but not impossible as P2 candidates.

But, Ok. That's 7 votes to dissolve. so then who is vote 8 and what's their possible motive?

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I see all three of those as doubtful, but not impossible as P2 candidates.

But, Ok. That's 7 votes to dissolve. so then who is vote 8 and what's their possible motive?

You see Miami as doubtful? I think Duke and GT might be doubtful, although I think the B1G would love to get into SEC country, which also puts Miami in play for them, plus GT’s academics are on par with them. Louisville maybe could be the 8th if the SEC/ESPN decided their rivalry with Kentucky would be good to have.

 

[hokiehead]

You see Miami as doubtful? I think Duke and GT might be doubtful, although I think the B1G would love to get into SEC country, which also puts Miami in play for them, plus GT’s academics are on par with them. Louisville maybe could be the 8th if the SEC/ESPN decided their rivalry with Kentucky would be good to have.

Ok. I'm not saying you're wrong. But yes, I'm not convinced Miami adds value to either in that scenario.

But if you're right, i see no way a Pac expansion with ACC schools makes sense.

 

[Buffnik]

If you're going for max value to bring to a new conference, the Pac would drop both OSU and WSU. And, I'd throw a curveball here and choose SDSU instead of Arizona. That's 8.

From the Big 12, I like KU, OSU, TCU, UH and Cincinnati. (Cincy makes it so we're not conceding one of the highest population and better recruiting states to Ohio State). That's 5 more.

That gives you 13.

Get Notre Dame and you're at 14. They take this to the next level, too.

Turning to the ACC, I'm looking at market and brand.

Miami, FSU, GT & Clemson lead this. Then you take Pitt for the same reason you took Cincy. I'm now at 20

Last 4, I think, starts with VT to own VA. Next is NC State - that's UNC's football rival and the largest school in the state.

Here it gets tough. I think I've covered all markets. 2 more spots to have a 24-team conference.

So I'm asking the question of who I think, from who is left, is most likely to make a FB Playoff and a Final Four. I think that's got to drive it here.

I think that the best 6 options from what's left are Arizona, Baylor, Connecticut (could deliver both NYC & New England TVs plus elite hoops and next door to ESPN), Duke, Louisville, Syracuse and West Virginia.

I'm dropping Arizona, UConn, Duke and Syracuse because I don't see them ever committing enough to football. WV is such a low population. I think I finish the 24 with Baylor and Louisville. Baylor has been close, both have recent Heisman winners and hoops titles, and Louisville has shown it's willing to go for it in NIL recruiting.

 

[Agent Dave Kujan]

I don't know that the Reddit post was more than wishful thinking and mental masturbation. But I do believe that there is tremendous value in a new conference formed from an ACC-PAC merger.

If doing this, I'd try to go big and take teams from the Big 12, maybe G5 and give Notre Dame whatever it wanted to be part of it. You don't have to stop at 16.

I think I want to play with this. My suspicion is that a 16-20 team conference could be created that paid as much per team as the B1G or SEC. Maybe more.

I like the idea of a ACC PAC merger better than joining the Big 12, but what is in it for the ACC?

 

[hokiehead]

I like the idea of a ACC PAC merger better than joining the Big 12, but what is in it for the ACC?

Getting out of their long term, low revenue media deal and GoR.

The problem with a merger idea is that it takes 8 votes to dissolve the ACC and the most valuable 4-8 properties would likely get taken by the P2.

 

[Buffnik]

Getting out of their long term, low revenue media deal and GoR.

The problem with a merger idea is that it takes 8 votes to dissolve the ACC and the most valuable 4-8 properties would likely get taken by the P2.

Yeah. If they dissolve the ACC it's because at least 8 have B1G/SEC invites.

 

[hokiehead]

Yeah. If they dissolve the ACC it's because at least 8 have B1G/SEC invites.

Largely agree, but i guess there's a possibile scenario where 2-4 could be lured to the PAC or XII somehow.

 

[#1 pick]

Getting out of their long term, low revenue media deal and GoR.

The problem with a merger idea is that it takes 8 votes to dissolve the ACC and the most valuable 4-8 properties would likely get taken by the P2.

I would say 8 will go to the P2.

Miami
FSU
ND
Georgia Tech to the B1G

UNC
UVA
Clemson
Duke to the SEC

What's left is NC State, Wake, Cuse, BC, Louisville, VT, and Pitt

Then you gotta hope they fully commit to the PAC and not the Big XII.

This is tough for the PAC. Maybe look at Gonzaga for Olympic sports which could appeal to the ACC teams since UCLA is gone.

It's risky for the PAC as it's nothing for the B1G to kill off the PAC if it wants Washington and Oregon but if they don't, they opened up that tier 2 and even more tier 3 slots.