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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

Liver said:
random conspiracy theory...

i can almost talk myself into this and i am not even inebriated.

rg to prime: you prefer the b12?

prime to rg: yes, i like the recruiting footprint and the chance to dominate the conference.

rg to prime: are you going to stick around for like 10+ years?

prime to rg: yes, if you want me to. why would i leave if i have it all built here? why would saban leave bama?

if i squint at it all really hard, maybe this is the real TRUTH.

The X Files Remix GIF
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So now you're not drunk...OK5r4tttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt-=my cat doesn't believe you.
 
InTheBuff said:
**** you. Nothing copied or pasted.

No plagiarizing.

Just reporting stuff that's not behind paywalls/subscriptions. Sharing stuff I believe is true. You can believe it, not believe it or shove it.

Just tonight Flugar mentioned that not only has CU met with the B12 numerous times but has also had conversations directly with FOX and ESPN. They have all of the information needed to where the next step would be to apply for a spot if that's where they decide to go.

Does CU stay or go ?
He feels there's enough info from sources along with the pure silence from the PAC that Colorado is a -6.5 favorite to bolt. He believes that if you don't see ANY positive leaks from the PAC tomorrow, then to not get your hopes up that we hear anything with substance Friday. Looking at history, before the SEC, BIG10 and B12 announced their deals, positive news leaked (on purpose) several days in advance. So that hasn't happened.

You don't like what I report, fine ...ignore it. If Colorado stays with the PAC and signs a deal I think is better than what's on the table in the Big12 then I'll eat crow.
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Flugar? I hardly know her.
Tie No Respect GIF by Rodney Dangerfield
 
Buffnik said:
All these Big 12 media "insiders" were completely blindsided when OU & UT announced for the SEC.

All these Pac-12 media "insiders" were completely blindsided when USC & UCLA announced for the B1G.

They don't know sh!t beyond what we do. All they're doing and have been doing for over a year is repeating their circle jerk assumptions they talk to each other about while running with the occasional planted story from a source.

They'll find out when we do.
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If you were paying attention the USC/UCLA move should have been no surprise.
 
InTheBuff said:
He feels there's enough info from sources along with the pure silence from the PAC that Colorado is a -6.5 favorite to bolt.
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What the actual **** is -6.5 supposed to represent in this context? Is there a point spread in the realignment game? Is this happening at a neutral field? Would we be -3.5 if we were playing on the road, or -9.5 favorites at home? Is the opposing starting ADs injured?

Of all the dumb **** that has been posted on conference realignment, this is probably the most moronic of the lot.
 
30Something said:
What the actual **** is -6.5 supposed to represent in this context? Is there a point spread in the realignment game? Is this happening at a neutral field? Would we be -3.5 if we were playing on the road, or -9.5 favorites at home? Is the opposing starting ADs injured?

Of all the dumb **** that has been posted on conference realignment, this is probably the most moronic of the lot.
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Ummm ... Wilner has done the exact same thing. Guess it's dumb for him too then.
 
Geezus guys. It just represents a ballpark estimate of the likelihood of a thing happening.

The higher the minus number the more likely the thing is to happen OR the higher the plus number the less likely. It’s just an analogy to a football betting spread.

If the number is Zero, the likelihood is a coin flip.

Y’all owe ITB a steak dinner if CU bolts to the B12.
 
PAHIBuff said:
Geezus guys. It just represents a ballpark estimate of the likelihood of a thing happening.

The higher the minus number the more likely the thing is to happen OR the higher the plus number the less likely. It’s just an analogy to a football betting spread.

If the number is Zero, the likelihood is a coin flip.

Y’all owe ITB a steak dinner if CU bolts to the B12.
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And I'll eat crow if they stay with a ****ty deal. If they get a better one than the Big12 deal I'll be OK with it.
 
InTheBuff said:
And I'll eat crow if they stay with a ****ty deal. If they get a better one than the Big12 deal I'll be OK with it.
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It’s being so certain of an uncertain outcome that is causing people to give you so much grief. But so we’re clear, you would consider a deal that is similar to the Big12 money-wise (+/- $10M) but with a heavy streaming component to be a “****ty deal”, correct?
 
Credit to CustersDoctor at Surly Horns

HOLLYWOOD MARRIAGES THAT DIDN'T LAST AS LONG AS THE PACX MEDIA NEGOTIATIONS:
BRITNEY SPEARS & JASON ALEXANDER 55hrs
NICOLAS CAGE & ERIKA KOIKE 4 DAYS
KRIS HUMPHRIES & KIM KARDASHIAN 72 DAYS
NICOLAS CAGE & LISA MAIRIE PRESLEY 107 DAYS
PAMELA ANDERSON & KID ROCK 122 DAYS
KENNY CHESNEY & RENEE ZELLWEGER 128 DAYS
CARMEN ELECTRA & DENNIS RODMAN 129 DAYS
SOPHIA BUSH & CHAD MICHAEL MURPHY 163 DAYS
JENNIFER LOPEZ & CHRIS JUDD 218 DAYS
JIM CAREY & LAUREN HOLLY 309 DAYS
ELIZABETH TAYLOR HAD FIVE MARRIAGES THAT DIDN'T LAST THIS LONG
MILEY CYRUS & LIAM HEMSWORTH 8 MONTHS
CHER & GREG ALLMAN 9 DAYS
 
PAC MAN said:
P12 isn't the only conference that is having drama this week.

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MWC is really in limbo right now. They expect SDSU to be gone. They know there's a chance the Pac takes more. I also think there's a chance that some look at the AAC if the MWC has significantly diluted.
 
Buffnik said:
MWC is really in limbo right now. They expect SDSU to be gone. They know there's a chance the Pac takes more. I also think there's a chance that some look at the AAC if the MWC has significantly diluted.
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I don't think anyone is going anywhere. The idea of expansion with G5 teams is no longer profitable and will only dilute revenue payout per school. As carriage fees decrease, being in a large metro area is not as valuable as a strong brand with a rabid fan base (fans who will buy streaming subscriptions).
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
1. The Pac 10 will certainly not have any kind of 99 year GOR in any part of their media deal. Nobody is going to agree to that willingly. I could see a provision that forces the repayment of media $$ if a program leaves within X amount of years, but nobody is going to sign up for any kind of 99 year GOR.

2. CU deciding they don't want to pay $100m exit fee from the Big 12 is not any kind of indication that they aren't interested in top tier athletics. Fact is, the $$ difference between the Pac 10 and Big 12 would have to be $10m+/year to make that kind of decision even close to a wash (if CU can make $60-$70m more in the Big 12 over the next 6-7 years, then it would be somewhat of a wash to then pay the B12 exit fee).

3. Huh? No other P5 programs want to be stuck in the Big 12 and half the ACC wants out of their GOR. Why would the Pac 10 take a copy of the ACC GOR?
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1- The Big 12 GOR isn't for 99 years. It's for whatever the term of the media deal is. The PAC will likely GOR their new media deal since we all expect it to be similar or shorter to the Big Ten.
2- The exit fee has the 99 year thing on it. That's 2 years of league distributions and is often negotiated way down. So basically the same as your idea in point 1 quoted above. Your 100M figure would be the starting point of a negotiation that would likely settle for much much less.
3- I could easily see the PAC put in an exit penalty. Those confident in either having no options (Wazzu, Oregon State, Cal) or those who know a Big Ten invite would easily pay for said exit fee (UO, UW, Stanford) could make an interesting voting block to keep the four corners chained into the league.
4- The ACC GOR is way different than the Big 12. Namely half a decade longer in length different. Makes waiting it out or risking it in court twice as difficult.
 
ahoelsken said:
1. Where is an SEC school going?

2. CU is making money hand over foot with Deion Sanders running the football program. Think of all the Coach Prime swag that this fanbase now owns. Think about ESPN televising the spring game. Selling out the spring game. All of this has taken place before Deion Sanders has coached a game at CU. Our first two games are on Big Noon-on a TV network that doesn't want anything to do with the Pac 12 as a whole. Regardless of how this ****ing Pac 12 TV circus turns out, CU's #1 priority needs to be ensuring Prime is here as long as possible. If this team gets to a bowl, give Prime a raise. Prime also brought in a championship caliber staff. Sean Lewis is one of the best young offensive minds in the sport, and he will be a Power 5 coach. Charles Kelly was the best recruiter in the country last year, and he should have been the defensive signal caller at Alabama at some point during his time there.

3. The Big 12 GoR isn't bulletproof. Texas and Oklahoma paid a $100M exit fee COMBINED. (https://athlonsports.com/college-fo...a-texas-will-pay-to-leave-big-12-a-year-early) There is a lot of overthinking the idea of joining the Big 12. I don't like the idea of a conference change, but I also don't like the fact that this media rights odyssey is now 13 months old. Either way-we're talking about the time between now and the time somebody finally gets out of the ACC's GoR/it blows up. My guess is that is going to be 2033-34.
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On the Big 12 GOR, it's strong but the combined negotiation had the following:

2 Years of League Distribution (99 year exit fee) of around 80-90M combined.
1 Year of TXOU Media Value. Saw some reports speculating as high as 55M each

So 200M with the exit fee highly negotiated down historically and the GOR losing teeth due to only having one year left. Also having the ability to use the immediate money to make the replacement expansion non-dilutive prior to the new tv deal kicking in.

Breaking a GOR farther out than that gets REALLY costly and the league has less incentive to negotiate.
 
SINKRATZ said:
It’s being so certain of an uncertain outcome that is causing people to give you so much grief. But so we’re clear, you would consider a deal that is similar to the Big12 money-wise (+/- $10M) but with a heavy streaming component to be a “****ty deal”, correct?
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****ty deal would be more than $3 million less than BIG12 (why take less money when there's guaranteed $$ on the table) and yes...heavy streaming unless it's
on Netflix ..LOL. BIG12 is at 31.5 million but really is closer to 45 million when all said and done.

I 100% believe that the PAC is dead conference walking. USC is gone folks and Oregon and Washington aren't far behind.
IF CU is ever considered for one of the BIG 2 they would find the $$ to get out of the BIG12. That is not an issue in the grand scheme of things.
Personally don't think I see Colorado in either BIG 2 conferences unless they both go to 24.
.
 
BlackNGold said:
I don't think anyone is going anywhere. The idea of expansion with G5 teams is no longer profitable and will only dilute revenue payout per school. As carriage fees decrease, being in a large metro area is not as valuable as a strong brand with a rabid fan base (fans who will buy streaming subscriptions).
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So the Big 12 made a mistake and shouldn't have added BYU, Cincy, UCF & UH? They shouldn't be looking at Memphis and UConn?

It's always something that seems inconsistent to me that something another conference is commended for which works is disparaged if it's something considered for the Pac-12.

For example, SDSU, Fresno State and UNLV all represent major & fast-growing media markets in the Pac footprint, Boise State has been the most successful G5 this century, and SMU is in one of the largest markets in the country. But many fans are sure they don't add value? That there's no deal which could be structured in a way that they were accretive to everyone's revenue? I don't buy that. When you can add significant markets with low travel costs for efficiencies in your unprofitable sports and add a lot of content assets, there's value. So it's just a matter of making a deal wherein the numbers work.
 
PAC MAN said:
That might not happen if they can convince some Big West schools that used to have football into reinstating those sports to varsity status. UC San Diego could be a target for membership to that non scholarship league given their travel distances in the Pioneer Football League.
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Matt Brown reached out to UCSD recently to ask if they would consider starting up FB and was told no.
 
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