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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

His argument is dumb and doesn’t have any bearing on modern college football realignment
agree. I think his data is interesting but not definitive. There is probably some association but how much? Who knows. However, when data 100% points in one direction it is compelling.

In the end being a flag ship university seems to matter. Almost all flagships have fled the Big 12. They are populated by T2 universities. The PAC still has flag ships. Because of this it is my OPINION that there is no reason for PAC defections. They will get a bigger contract per school and we will see what 2030 brings.
 
Personal experience and, for lack of a better way of saying it, kind of a "duh, obviously" truth for anyone in academia (and I'm not even saying it should be that obvious to anyone outside of academia). If you think athletic association matters for research expenditures whatsoever, that's a strong claim. You've not shown any data that support it, only a correlation. If you truly believe it's a real phenomenon, you'd need to get rid of any other potentially explanatory variables, at a minimum. So far you've shown that a single university increased its research expenditures during a time when said single university has been putting a premium on upping its research output. If you want to claim that research expenditures have anything to do with athletic affiliation, you need to find data that actually show that. (A single data point with zero consideration given to other variables is not useful data, my friend).
I also very much doubt that anyone in academia writes grant applications with academic affiliation in mind. However, I don’t think that Tony Altimore would say that either. I think the idea is that the athletic affiliation has some spillover effect on academic reputation and R&D funding on the macro level. I think he has made some solid arguments and certainly shown some correlation. There is no proof of causation.

I would equate athletic affiliation to what the military would refer to as soft power.

Again, if you watch the video, I think some good arguments were made, but they certainly fall short of proof. We can also say that no school has downshifted to an inferior conference in the past 40 years, at least none that I could identify.

The second part of Tony Altimore’s argument has been fairly well ignored too. That is, the Big 12 signed a 99 year grant of rights. Some has burned off, but for arguments sake, pretty much everyone alive today will be dead when that grant of rights terminates. The GOR calls for any exiting member to pay 2x the annual conference per school revenue as an exit fee. He also showed that with the media contract, plus the extra $20 million from the expanded playoff, the exit fee would now move from $50 million that was charged to OU and Texas (each) to $100 million.

So, the argument proffered is that any school leaving the PAC 12 to the Big 12 would be 1) downshifting significantly in academic prestige which has never been done before, 2) the PAC 12 school would then be largely locked into the Big 12 for damn near forever, and 3) is it worth it to move over a few million dollars when that amounts to a rounding error on these massive university budgets?

The combination of these three points seemed rather compelling to me. I think they might also be compelling to university presidents.

I agree that individual professors writing grant requests give zero ****s.
 
I did. He doesn't understand what he's talking about. He sees a correlation with an extremely limited set of data points, fails to consider any other relevant variables, then makes a conclusion with no basis.
Then refute it. What are the other variables? What are the relevant data points? What are the conclusions that should be drawn? You are not getting a grant with that half ass rebuttal ;)
 
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I think it's also worth mentioning, the P10, as is, would mostly be a 4 team race for that CFP spot. UO UW UU and CU, with some projection needed for CU to be included there, but I'm feeling optimistic.

That certainly has some pull for UW/UO to know every season they start as odds on favorites to make the CFP, until UU comes in hot in October/November after ****ing themselves in September at least
 
I also very much doubt that anyone in academia writes grant applications with academic affiliation in mind. However, I don’t think that Tony Altimore would say that either. I think the idea is that the athletic affiliation has some spillover effect on academic reputation and R&D funding on the macro level. I think he has made some solid arguments and certainly shown some correlation. There is no proof of causation.

I would equate athletic affiliation to what the military would refer to as soft power.

Again, if you watch the video, I think some good arguments were made, but they certainly fall short of proof. We can also say that no school has downshifted to an inferior conference in the past 40 years, at least none that I could identify.

The second part of Tony Altimore’s argument has been fairly well ignored too. That is, the Big 12 signed a 99 year grant of rights. Some has burned off, but for arguments sake, pretty much everyone alive today will be dead when that grant of rights terminates. The GOR calls for any exiting member to pay 2x the annual conference per school revenue as an exit fee. He also showed that with the media contract, plus the extra $20 million from the expanded playoff, the exit fee would now move from $50 million that was charged to OU and Texas (each) to $100 million.

So, the argument proffered is that any school leaving the PAC 12 to the Big 12 would be 1) downshifting significantly in academic prestige which has never been done before, 2) the PAC 12 school would then be largely locked into the Big 12 for damn near forever, and 3) is it worth it to move over a few million dollars when that amounts to a rounding error on these massive university budgets?

The combination of these three points seemed rather compelling to me. I think they might also be compelling to university presidents.

I agree that individual professors writing grant requests give zero ****s.
A well said review
 
Then refute it. What are the other variables? What are the relevant data points? What is the conclusion that should be drawn? You are not getting a grant with that half ass rebuttal ;)
Again, in science, data supporting your argument are necessary before you can ever ask for data that refutes your/ their claim. Relevant data points would be literally every other thing going on at the university besides conference switching, along with comparable data over time (to see if any trend changes at the conference switch), just to start.
 
Again, in science, data supporting your argument are necessary before you can ever ask for data that refutes your/ their claim. Relevant data points would be literally every other thing going on at the university besides conference switching, along with comparable data over time (to see if any trend changes at the conference switch), just to start.
I mean….his data supports his own argument. Does it not?

If someone disagrees it would be up to them to present data that would refute it. So far no one has presented that data. They have just said they disagree. Disagreeing is opinion unless supported.
 
I think it's also worth mentioning, the P10, as is, would mostly be a 4 team race for that CFP spot. UO UW UU and CU, with some projection needed for CU to be included there, but I'm feeling optimistic.

That certainly has some pull for UW/UO to know every season they start as odds on favorites to make the CFP, until UU comes in hot in October/November after ****ing themselves in September at least
Do you see a scenario where Fox and ESPN are trying to kill off the Pac in order to eliminate a conference auto bid to the 12 team playoff that clearly puts the larger SEC and B1G at a disadvantage (or at least equal) footing as the other three P5 conferences?

There are only 6 at large bids at the moment for quite a few elite programs who are all going to be playing in significantly tougher conferences. The idea that the Pac 10 + SDSU and SMU gets an autobid for the next 5-7 years has to have B1G and SEC members rolling their eyes hard along with Fox and ESPN who are essentially not bidding on Pac media rights. If you force a consolidation with the Big 12, while likely dropping at least 2 properties, both Fox and ESPN get that inventory, while eliminating an autobid, at a cheaper payout than two separate conferences.
 
No, it does not. Just like a flat earther looking at the horizon and saying it looks flat is not actual evidence that the Earth is flat. It's a limited observation from which very grand conclusions are supposed.
Except that he uses data to draw conclusions. A flat earther is not using data. They are just observing.

Are you sure you are a professor?

Nbc Idk GIF by Good Girls


Snark I know but it has been fun. I will revisit this thread when the PAC has firmly stepped over the Big 12.
 
Another huge factor for conference expansion is the population, education level, wealth and alumni residents of current members where a prospective new member is located.

B1G institutions loved Southern California for this. It leads directly to quality undergraduate and graduate level applications of full-price students at out-of-state rates - plus bumps donations.

At the end of the day, CU has everything the B1G is looking for other than recent football success and the associated national following to drive revenue & ratings. We bring all the academic & state flagship research university stuff they love, the only notable population metro area & state in the Front Range Super Metro, an existing nationally-known rivalry with an existing member (Nebraska), a famous historic game with Michigan, lots of alumni in the Chicagoland metro, and one of the few football programs with the dual prestige of having both a Heisman and a National Champion.

I firmly believe that with the media attention and national recruiting news CU is making under Coach Prime, if major on-field success follows then we're a lock to get invites pretty much anywhere we want to go in the next round of realignment. We're not able to be the school that drives a conference, but we're comfortably among the 30 best schools to associate with as a conference partner.
 
I mean….his data supports his own argument. Does it not?

If someone disagrees it would be up to them to present data that would refute it. So far no one has presented that data. They have just said they disagree. Disagreeing is opinion unless supported.
If his argument is that conference jumping in the past has been schools going to a more prestigious academic conference, then I agree, his data supports his argument. However, that’s not really his argument. He is extending that data to argue that it means it won’t happen in reverse this time around, which is an entirely different argument that HE must prove before anyone else has to refute it
 
Except that he uses data to draw conclusions. A flat earther is not using data. They are just observing.

Are you sure you are a professor?

Nbc Idk GIF by Good Girls


Snark I know but it has been fun. I will revisit this thread when the PAC has firmly stepped over the Big 12.
He's using observations that are uncorrelated. That's not data. I'm not sure you understand what counts as data in science.

Here, I'll make you happy. You presented earlier that CU's R&D expenditures have increased since joining the PAC and they must be related. In half the time that CU has been in the PAC, R&D at the University of Texas has increased twice what CU's has. Thus a similar reading of equivalent "data" concludes that staying in a conference with a lower academic ranking will actually benefit R&D even more.

I'm sure you can see how ridiculous that is.
 
If his argument is that conference jumping in the past has been schools going to a more prestigious academic conference, then I agree, his data supports his argument. However, that’s not really his argument. He is extending that data to argue that it means it won’t happen in reverse this time around, which is an entirely different argument that HE must prove before anyone else has to refute it
FWIW, the history supports the argument that downgrading academic associations has never been a choice a school has made when opting to change conferences... therefore it would be a highly significant departure from past decisions if a school opted to do so.

That's how I took it and I think it's valid.
 
If his argument is that conference jumping in the past has been schools going to a more prestigious academic conference, then I agree, his data supports his argument. However, that’s not really his argument. He is extending that data to argue that it means it won’t happen in reverse this time around, which is an entirely different argument that HE must prove before anyone else has to refute it
We will know in a couple weeks. My guess is the model holds. If by model we go by academic.

My final call is PAC +2 sign a deal slightly north of the Big 12.

If I am wrong I will fully admit it and will fully embrace Manhattan Kansas again while hoping for an eventual BIG invite.
 
FWIW, the history supports the argument that downgrading academic associations has never been a choice a school has made when opting to change conferences... therefore it would be a highly significant departure from past decisions if a school opted to do so.

That's how I took it and I think it's valid.
I agree that’s what history has shown, but there are a lot of other factors that didn’t exist in 2011 (and certainly not before) that aren’t being considered in the argument which makes it flawed, IMO
 
He's using observations that are uncorrelated. That's not data. I'm not sure you understand what counts as data in science.

Here, I'll make you happy. You presented earlier that CU's R&D expenditures have increased since joining the PAC and they must be related. In half the time that CU has been in the PAC, R&D at the University of Texas has increased twice what CU's has. Thus a similar reading of equivalent "data" concludes that staying in a conference with a lower academic ranking will actually benefit R&D even more.

I'm sure you can see how ridiculous that is.

Do you have a citation to those TX numbers? Not saying you are wrong but it would be interesting to see that growth over time as a percentage vs his PAC and Big 12 chart.
 
I thought the point Tony was Making in his video/with his numbers was that Colorado (and Utah) has benefited from the relationships within the P12 universities to increase R&D revenues. Colorado by some $300M (Utah less). The contracts awarded to the universities lift other conference partners as they add each other to satisfy portions of these award needs. I’m sure that partners outside the conference exist as well, but that wasn’t his point. He emphasized these R&D relationships as being weighted more than the media rights revenues in any decision to leave the P12 to the B12.
 
I thought the point Tony was Making in his video/with his numbers was that Colorado (and Utah) has benefited from the relationships within the P12 universities to increase R&D revenues. Colorado by some $300M (Utah less). The contracts awarded to the universities lift other conference partners as they add each other to satisfy portions of these award needs. I’m sure that partners outside the conference exist as well, but that wasn’t his point. He emphasized these R&D relationships as being weighted more than the media rights revenues in any decision to leave the P12 to the B12.
Yes I believe his overall point was that CU has benefited from its relationship to the schools that makeup the PAC. And that benefit outweighs any gain by jumping conferences. Except for the BIG or SEC where the dollars may actually sway opinion.

A million or two between the PAC and Big 12 just isn’t that big a deal.
 
I thought the point Tony was Making in his video/with his numbers was that Colorado (and Utah) has benefited from the relationships within the P12 universities to increase R&D revenues. Colorado by some $300M (Utah less). The contracts awarded to the universities lift other conference partners as they add each other to satisfy portions of these award needs. I’m sure that partners outside the conference exist as well, but that wasn’t his point. He emphasized these R&D relationships as being weighted more than the media rights revenues in any decision to leave the P12 to the B12.

I haven't watched the video or listened to the podcast or whatever the source of this claim is. Two questions for those who have:
  1. Does he have any evidence to show that these relationships and research partnerships would NOT have happened if not for the jump to the P12? In other words, is the P12 relationship the driving factor or is it that the vast majority of R1/AAU accredited universities that are in the Western part of the US are in the P12?
  2. Does he account for any non-obvious confounding variables, such as a change in the priority from university leadership towards research funding?

Because I have to say, if the argument is that "CU went to the P12, then CU increased the research funding they receive, ergo CU going to the P12 caused the increase in received research funding" I find that less than compelling. Pretty much a textbook example of "correlation does not equal causation."
 
I haven't watched the video or listened to the podcast or whatever the source of this claim is. Two questions for those who have:
  1. Does he have any evidence to show that these relationships and research partnerships would NOT have happened if not for the jump to the P12? In other words, is the P12 relationship the driving factor or is it that the vast majority of R1/AAU accredited universities that are in the Western part of the US are in the P12?
  2. Does he account for any non-obvious confounding variables, such as a change in the priority from university leadership towards research funding?

Because I have to say, if the argument is that "CU went to the P12, then CU increased the research funding they receive, ergo CU going to the P12 caused the increase in received research funding" I find that less than compelling. Pretty much a textbook example of "correlation does not equal causation."
good summary, but I'd further point out that ONE data points does not imply correlation
 

I've heard from some Ohio State boosters that this happened mainly because OSU doesn't want their team playing an away game
on tv behind a paywall.
I'm not sure about that but the perception is certainly present.
 
Here's something to keep all of you weirdos occupied


lots of thoughts, but chief among them is that I struggle with a scenario in which Oregon State remains in a Power conference while NC State and Louisville are out.
 
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