Found this at one of the entertainment sites I frequent....
What do you guys think?
Colorado State Rams +10
The Colorado Rams are underdogs by a lot more than I thought in this game tonight which I find quite strange based on the fact that the games between these two teams are traditionally very close every year and despite last year's blowout loss 38-17 to the Buffaloes, the Rams actually used that loss as a turning point for their season, they then went on to win 7 games and reach their first Bowl Game since 2005. So you would think that these guys would get a bit more credit from oddsmakers seeing how not only did they reach that New Mexico Bowl Game but they won as +2 points underdogs in a 40-35 win over the Fresno State Bulldogs. So what gives here Vegas? I have no idea how he did it, since he was useless with the Buffalo Bills, but Steve Fairchild led them to a Bowl Game in his first season and now he is back for more. The offense managed 25.2 points per game in 2008 and they had their highest rushing yards per game total since 2003. I think the reason Colorado State is such an underdog here is because Vegas is looking at the fact that the top two rushers on this team are gone and the QB from last season is gone too. We are going to see a new look offense I think if QB Grant Stucker is at the helms. This kid can run on the ground. He had 4 run attempts last year and produced 43 yards. Not bad. He also completed 3 of 5 passes and is a Senior who has experience and who understands rivalries. Rivalry games are shootouts most of the time unless teams can play defense and Colorado has only 4 returning starters from a team that allowed a whopping 29.3 points per game last season. They lose 3 combined interceptions and a whopping 17 sacks (Brad Jones was awesome and he is gone) so by all means Colorado State is going to put some points up on the board just like they did in that Bowl Game last winter and that is why I think they will have no problems keeping this game close and putting themselves in a nice position to win this game. I mean Colorado is not getting any better on defense and seeing how the Rams want revenge for last year's blowout, I say they get it.
The Colorado Buffaloes are well aware that Colorado State is out for blood. That will either help them or hurt them in this situation because they might come out nervous and make some early mistakes or they might feed off the energy of the crowd and shoot for the endzone on every play. Nonetheless, this is a very capable offense that scored only 20.2 points per game last season (shocking and disappointing if you ask me for a Dan Hawkins team) and now that they have 9 starters back on that side of the ball, we are in for some kind of offensive treat I think. Everyone and anyone who ran the ball last year is back. Everyone and anyone who passed the ball last year is also back. Sure they lose two key Wide Receivers in Patrick Williams and Cody Crawford (combined 61 catches last year) but they should be fine with the plethora of experience they bring to the table this year. Having said that, I expect a complete shootout in this game so scoring points may not mean jack if Colorado State is scoring just as many and it looks like they will be. Sure the Rams defense sucks having allowed 30.2 points per game last season and sure they return only 5 starters on that side of the ball but all that can be tossed out the window in games like this. All I know is that this team has a couple of guys who are real deal breakers on defense as LB Mychal Sisson is one of them and he finished with 105 tackles (7.5 for a loss) last season. No matter how much the Rams continue to attack and be aggressive, I don't think it will be enough to win this game by a lot because I am positive that they do not have the resources on defense to stop Colorado State enough times to pull away with the game. Both Dan and Cody Hawkins are on the hot seat coming into this season and that is the kind of pressure I think neither will react well to so I see the Buffaloes crashing and burning early in this one. It's going to be a good game but Colorado doesn't have the defense to blow it out.
The rivalry between these two schools always produces close games. Last year was an exception to the matter and even after their blowout loss to Colorado, the Rams from Colorado State still managed a Bowl Game while the Buffaloes did not. So what you can learn from this line is that oddsmakers have grossely invested too much into last year's blowout and they have not taken into consideration that Colorado State will be more motivated than ever to win this game or at least keep it close. How demoralizing must it be for Colorado to know that you had that blow out win over the Rams last season yet they made the Bowl Game and you didn't? Before last year's blowout win by Colorado, the previous 6 meetings had all been decided by a combined 25 points and none of them by more than a touchdown. I think we go back to that tradition here. I also find it interesting that since the arrival of Dan Hawkins as coach (the Buffaloes were 16-2 in home openers), this team is only 1-2 in home openers with a loss to I-AA team and a near loss to another I-AA team last year. No matter how bad Colorado State was last year and the year before as a road underdog, this is rivalry game, they are pissed about last year and they are coming off a huge Bowl Game win. Colorado finished 2008 going 2-7 ATS in their last nine games and you have to know that the line is severely blown up for this game as Colorado is only 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. That says it all right there, expect an upset win and expect Dan Hawkins to last another few weeks only if that happens. This could be the last straw Hawkins!
Trend of the Game: Colorado is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.
Colorado State 34, Colorado 31
What do you guys think?
Colorado State Rams +10
The Colorado Rams are underdogs by a lot more than I thought in this game tonight which I find quite strange based on the fact that the games between these two teams are traditionally very close every year and despite last year's blowout loss 38-17 to the Buffaloes, the Rams actually used that loss as a turning point for their season, they then went on to win 7 games and reach their first Bowl Game since 2005. So you would think that these guys would get a bit more credit from oddsmakers seeing how not only did they reach that New Mexico Bowl Game but they won as +2 points underdogs in a 40-35 win over the Fresno State Bulldogs. So what gives here Vegas? I have no idea how he did it, since he was useless with the Buffalo Bills, but Steve Fairchild led them to a Bowl Game in his first season and now he is back for more. The offense managed 25.2 points per game in 2008 and they had their highest rushing yards per game total since 2003. I think the reason Colorado State is such an underdog here is because Vegas is looking at the fact that the top two rushers on this team are gone and the QB from last season is gone too. We are going to see a new look offense I think if QB Grant Stucker is at the helms. This kid can run on the ground. He had 4 run attempts last year and produced 43 yards. Not bad. He also completed 3 of 5 passes and is a Senior who has experience and who understands rivalries. Rivalry games are shootouts most of the time unless teams can play defense and Colorado has only 4 returning starters from a team that allowed a whopping 29.3 points per game last season. They lose 3 combined interceptions and a whopping 17 sacks (Brad Jones was awesome and he is gone) so by all means Colorado State is going to put some points up on the board just like they did in that Bowl Game last winter and that is why I think they will have no problems keeping this game close and putting themselves in a nice position to win this game. I mean Colorado is not getting any better on defense and seeing how the Rams want revenge for last year's blowout, I say they get it.
The Colorado Buffaloes are well aware that Colorado State is out for blood. That will either help them or hurt them in this situation because they might come out nervous and make some early mistakes or they might feed off the energy of the crowd and shoot for the endzone on every play. Nonetheless, this is a very capable offense that scored only 20.2 points per game last season (shocking and disappointing if you ask me for a Dan Hawkins team) and now that they have 9 starters back on that side of the ball, we are in for some kind of offensive treat I think. Everyone and anyone who ran the ball last year is back. Everyone and anyone who passed the ball last year is also back. Sure they lose two key Wide Receivers in Patrick Williams and Cody Crawford (combined 61 catches last year) but they should be fine with the plethora of experience they bring to the table this year. Having said that, I expect a complete shootout in this game so scoring points may not mean jack if Colorado State is scoring just as many and it looks like they will be. Sure the Rams defense sucks having allowed 30.2 points per game last season and sure they return only 5 starters on that side of the ball but all that can be tossed out the window in games like this. All I know is that this team has a couple of guys who are real deal breakers on defense as LB Mychal Sisson is one of them and he finished with 105 tackles (7.5 for a loss) last season. No matter how much the Rams continue to attack and be aggressive, I don't think it will be enough to win this game by a lot because I am positive that they do not have the resources on defense to stop Colorado State enough times to pull away with the game. Both Dan and Cody Hawkins are on the hot seat coming into this season and that is the kind of pressure I think neither will react well to so I see the Buffaloes crashing and burning early in this one. It's going to be a good game but Colorado doesn't have the defense to blow it out.
The rivalry between these two schools always produces close games. Last year was an exception to the matter and even after their blowout loss to Colorado, the Rams from Colorado State still managed a Bowl Game while the Buffaloes did not. So what you can learn from this line is that oddsmakers have grossely invested too much into last year's blowout and they have not taken into consideration that Colorado State will be more motivated than ever to win this game or at least keep it close. How demoralizing must it be for Colorado to know that you had that blow out win over the Rams last season yet they made the Bowl Game and you didn't? Before last year's blowout win by Colorado, the previous 6 meetings had all been decided by a combined 25 points and none of them by more than a touchdown. I think we go back to that tradition here. I also find it interesting that since the arrival of Dan Hawkins as coach (the Buffaloes were 16-2 in home openers), this team is only 1-2 in home openers with a loss to I-AA team and a near loss to another I-AA team last year. No matter how bad Colorado State was last year and the year before as a road underdog, this is rivalry game, they are pissed about last year and they are coming off a huge Bowl Game win. Colorado finished 2008 going 2-7 ATS in their last nine games and you have to know that the line is severely blown up for this game as Colorado is only 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. That says it all right there, expect an upset win and expect Dan Hawkins to last another few weeks only if that happens. This could be the last straw Hawkins!
Trend of the Game: Colorado is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.
Colorado State 34, Colorado 31