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Do we want ASU to upset the UTEs or not?
- Thread starter lvbuff
- Start date
AlferdJasper
Well-Known Member
I know, right? They keep calling, but I am so busy with my freecell record (303 wins in a row) that I just can't make the meetings.
This seems so clear to me!
Ringer
Well-Known Member
Yes. Don't give no F**ks about "strength of schedule" and all that bu*****t that only matters in the playoff rankings. Let's face it guys, it would take several divine miracles for CU to end up in the top 4. Bottom line: A CU PAC 12 Championship game against an unbeaten Washington, win or lose, would likely result in a Buffs appearance in the Rose Bowl. How cool would that be? So **** USC, and ****UU.
King_George_XXIV_Rules
Well-Known Member
The South division is still a 3-way race between CU, USC, and UU. So one consideration is that if Utah wins tomorrow, then CU and UW can together eliminate USC entirely by both winning on Saturday.
However if Utah loses to ASU, then USC will remain alive for at least one more week, regardless of anything else happening on Saturday with USC/UW or CU/UA.
Yep. Understand all that. I don't care about "boosting our ranking". I am just looking at winning each week to win the P-12 South. If every other south team loses for the rest of the year...GOOD!!! Let's wait until next year to start worrying about the playoffs and control our own destiny.
Until then....PAC-12 CHAMPIONS!!!
jrj84105
Active Member
Ute fan here.
For the just make the CCG group, you root for a Utah win. If USC wins out, and CU loses to WSU, then USC beats CU in the tiebreaker due to head-to-head. Until USC is eliminated, CU fans need Utah to win to preserve the possibility of a 3-way tie where CU could win the tiebreaker. USC would be eliminated this week if CU and Utah both win and USC loses. After that, it's pragmatic to root for a Utah loss.
For the just make the Rose Bowl crowd, there are a few pathways:
A) Win out, and it doesn't matter what anyone else does.
B) UW wins out and makes the CFP. CU picks up at least one more loss in the CCG. Style points matter in getting the highest CFP ranking. Beating a better Utah team earns style points. This is why as a Utah fan, I want CU to win out until we meet. I want to the winner of CU/UU to go into the CCG knowing that win or lose the Rose Bowl is the final destination (with smallest of chances of the CFP).
C) chaos.
Final consideration is the long game. Rivalries make college football. Our forced rivalry has been a CFB punchline, but it shouldn't be. It's one of the most closely played rivalry series in all of college football. It decided conference championships annually over the span of decades when we were last in the same conference. The backdrop of snow covered mountains makes it instantly recognizable. I want this game to be for all the marbles. I'm rooting for Auburn to slide, for tOSU to pick up another WTF loss, and for every other iteration that makes this the most important rivalry game in he country this year. I want gameday there and all the fanfare. Because win or lose, the point of athletics is to play on the biggest stage. Utah has a great coach. Colorado has a great coach. The rest of the South will be replacing theirs. We'll both get our Rose Bowls in the next few years. I want all the talk to be on Utah and Colorado for the next five years. And I want that talk to include flashbacks to an epic 2016 Rumble in the Rockies.
For the just make the CCG group, you root for a Utah win. If USC wins out, and CU loses to WSU, then USC beats CU in the tiebreaker due to head-to-head. Until USC is eliminated, CU fans need Utah to win to preserve the possibility of a 3-way tie where CU could win the tiebreaker. USC would be eliminated this week if CU and Utah both win and USC loses. After that, it's pragmatic to root for a Utah loss.
For the just make the Rose Bowl crowd, there are a few pathways:
A) Win out, and it doesn't matter what anyone else does.
B) UW wins out and makes the CFP. CU picks up at least one more loss in the CCG. Style points matter in getting the highest CFP ranking. Beating a better Utah team earns style points. This is why as a Utah fan, I want CU to win out until we meet. I want to the winner of CU/UU to go into the CCG knowing that win or lose the Rose Bowl is the final destination (with smallest of chances of the CFP).
C) chaos.
Final consideration is the long game. Rivalries make college football. Our forced rivalry has been a CFB punchline, but it shouldn't be. It's one of the most closely played rivalry series in all of college football. It decided conference championships annually over the span of decades when we were last in the same conference. The backdrop of snow covered mountains makes it instantly recognizable. I want this game to be for all the marbles. I'm rooting for Auburn to slide, for tOSU to pick up another WTF loss, and for every other iteration that makes this the most important rivalry game in he country this year. I want gameday there and all the fanfare. Because win or lose, the point of athletics is to play on the biggest stage. Utah has a great coach. Colorado has a great coach. The rest of the South will be replacing theirs. We'll both get our Rose Bowls in the next few years. I want all the talk to be on Utah and Colorado for the next five years. And I want that talk to include flashbacks to an epic 2016 Rumble in the Rockies.
Welcome back, Devil Dog!
Kidding, that guy was dumb. Welcome.
Dp
Nice try. USC has a very tough game ahead of them with UW. I'm expecting an L for them. I'll take an L for the Yoots as well this weekend. Simple math is losses for those teams help Colorado. The rivalry thing will take care of itself. Welcome btw.
Ranking wouldn't matter though. We would be in contention for Rose, and they would not. Plus, they beat us head-to-head, so...
jrj84105
Active Member
You don't have to win your division to play in the Rose Bowl. If UW is selected to the CFP then the highest ranked PAC school plays in the Rose, not the CCG loser. A USC team coming off 6 straight wins is probably ahead of a CU team coming off a loss.
People seem to be seeing a lot wider margin for error than what actually exists. Although the probability of a PAC school winning out individually is low, the cumulative probability of one of UW, WSU, CU, UU, or USC winning out is very high.
The only real path for the schools are:
WSU: win out including CCG.
USC: Win out including CCG or win out regular season with either UU or CU losing CCG to CFP bound UW.
UU: Win out or win out regular season and lose CCG narrowly to a CFP bound UW.
CU: win out or win out regular season and lose CCG narrowly to CFP bound UW or lose one game to either AZ or WSU then beat UU and win CCG.
What UW does is really the only external result that significantly alters the probability of CU reaching the Rose Bowl because UW winning out and reaching the CFP is the only result that really increases everyone else's Rose Bowl chances. And because USC by virtue of name is the school most likely to win a CFP ranking free for all, the outcome of the UW vs USC game this week is the only game besides the actual CCG that really changes the probabilities for all parties left in play.
Strong motivation for us to root for UW to kick the snot our of USC and make them look baaad.
If both Utah and USC lose this week and CU wins at UA, then the Buffs have a 2-game lead in the South.
That sets up the Wazzu game as an opportunity to win the South next week.
Forget the tiebreakers. We lose all of them since we lost at USC and a tie that includes Utah would necessarily include losing to the Utes (unless the Buffs lost the next 2 games and then won the finale, but that's an extremely unlikely scenario).
My focus is on winning out, but the goals are: South title, Rose Bowl berth, Pac-12 title, Playoff... in that order.
Our best path through that mess is:
1. Both UW and CU win out (with the games left, that hangs a 4th loss on USC + 3rd & 4th losses on WSU... eliminating both from Rose Bowl consideration no matter what happens in the P12C).
2. Utah losing tonight makes it easier for CU since that would be 3 losses and we can hang the 4th. Plus, SOS might actually improve in the CFP committee's eyes since ASU would then likely finish 8-4 with a win in its finale over UA. That was a CU blowout win.
3. If it all shakes out the way we want in 1 & 2, then a 10-2 CU plays a 12-0 UW. If UW wins, they'd get a Playoff invite and a 10-3 CU would get selected to the Rose Bowl as the next highest ranked team by CFP. If CU wins, we'd automatically qualify for the Rose Bowl and have an outside shot at getting selected for the Playoff.
The thing that helps our SOS more than anything, I think, is for Stanford to win out to go 9-3 and be a ranked team on selection day. Also might help if UCLA won out to become bowl eligible (OSU, USC, @Cal)... though that would make the USC loss look worse and **** UCLA anyway so 5-7 for them with a loss to USC is what I'm hoping for.
That sets up the Wazzu game as an opportunity to win the South next week.
Forget the tiebreakers. We lose all of them since we lost at USC and a tie that includes Utah would necessarily include losing to the Utes (unless the Buffs lost the next 2 games and then won the finale, but that's an extremely unlikely scenario).
My focus is on winning out, but the goals are: South title, Rose Bowl berth, Pac-12 title, Playoff... in that order.
Our best path through that mess is:
1. Both UW and CU win out (with the games left, that hangs a 4th loss on USC + 3rd & 4th losses on WSU... eliminating both from Rose Bowl consideration no matter what happens in the P12C).
2. Utah losing tonight makes it easier for CU since that would be 3 losses and we can hang the 4th. Plus, SOS might actually improve in the CFP committee's eyes since ASU would then likely finish 8-4 with a win in its finale over UA. That was a CU blowout win.
3. If it all shakes out the way we want in 1 & 2, then a 10-2 CU plays a 12-0 UW. If UW wins, they'd get a Playoff invite and a 10-3 CU would get selected to the Rose Bowl as the next highest ranked team by CFP. If CU wins, we'd automatically qualify for the Rose Bowl and have an outside shot at getting selected for the Playoff.
The thing that helps our SOS more than anything, I think, is for Stanford to win out to go 9-3 and be a ranked team on selection day. Also might help if UCLA won out to become bowl eligible (OSU, USC, @Cal)... though that would make the USC loss look worse and **** UCLA anyway so 5-7 for them with a loss to USC is what I'm hoping for.
not so fast, my friends!
Utah loss:
Utah win:
lv is asking a question we all must ask ourselves... pac 12 champions? or champions of all this great* land!!!
*assumes no further FBI statements re:weiners &/or emails
WAIT..... so we have a better chance of winning the National Title than Washington, Auburn or Wisconsin???? I think I just got a little aroused. . . . .
Got it. Thanks.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
No chance your 2nd paragraph happens. The Rose Bowl has to take the Pac 12 champion or the highest available Pac 12 team in the final CFP rankings. If it's 10-2 us and 12-0 UW for the CCG, we go to at worse the Rose Bowl regardless of the CCG outcome.
I know the playoff scenario is pretty ridiculous right now, but it's still feasible. I don't know about you all, but I want Utah to win tonight and beat the Duck, and I want Wazzu to beat Cal. Here's the way I see it-WSU/UU/UW all win out until they play us, and we win the Pac 12. Alabama, Clemson, and Michigan (especially) all need to win out. That would get Auburn, Wisconsin, and Ohio State all out of our way by itself. I'd think we'd be ahead of even a one loss B12 champ, and I'd also think we'd pass Louisville for multiple reasons. One, they're not a conference champ. We are. Two, we'd have three top 25 wins at least to their......one? Third, I think the wins they have over bad competition (Duke and Virginia) hurt them. Lastly, I think our Michigan loss helps us. It's not that far fetched.
I'm not worried about the playoffs - if we win the whole thing, even better.
My concern is what happens when we win out, but lose the CCG? I don't want to get jumped by either U$C or UU for the Rose Bowl.
jrj84105
Active Member
It pains me as a Utah fan to say this, but the CFP ranking system is a beauty pageant, and CU beats Utah in a beauty pageant every time. Denver is a bigger market and there's better out of market interest due to CU's history with current and former BigXII schools. Utah is unsexy as a demographic, plays a boring style of football, and hasn't posted a strong margin of victory in Whittingham's entire 10 years (few exceptions). WSU is a bigger threat to leapfrog CU after a CCG loss, and that's saying something considering WSU's demographics.
No doubt that Colorado is a bigger story this year with more national history and a larger media market. I don't know that this would drive the CFP committee. I doubt it. I'd expect the networks would lean that way, but not the CFP.
jrj84105
Active Member
I expect that the CFP committee is very aware of and very responsive to the leanings of the networks.
