As of 9:45 pm Mountain Time on 6/9/10:
Lots can and will still happen, but it looks like the 2 things you can take to the bank are Nebraska to the Big 10 and CU to the Pac 10.
Nebraska is voting Friday to make it official, but all the reports are that they have already said "yes" to an invitation. Every Big 10 board is treating Nebraska as the 12th member as a done deal.
The rest of the Big 10 scenario seems to be that Missouri's 50/50. They would be paired with Notre Dame, so it's contingent on a "yes" from ND. For members 15 and 16, there is still a chance it would be Texas and Texas A&M. More likely is Rutgers with either Syracuse or Maryland.
Colorado has the invite to the Pac 10 but the question is who we would be going with. The initial push is what has been reported: Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech. That may get broken up, however.
Not only is there the Big 10 option, we still haven't heard from the SEC. There is absolutely no way the SEC is going to watch the Big 12 fall apart without making a major play to get into Texas. This one may depend on how united Texas and Texas A&M are in this whole deal. A&M would actually prefer the SEC, wanted to go there instead of the Big 12 back in 1994, and doesn't like the travel or the cultural fit in the Pac 10. Texas, though, will not be going to the SEC. The SEC may make a try for 2 or all 3 of A&M, OU and OSU. There's also a chance they could make a play for Missouri if MU gets left out of the Big 10.
Some reports leaked today that the Pac 10 was taking a look at the University of Houston. Is it possible there's a backup plan in place that would send CU to the Pac 10 along with Texas, Texas Tech, Houston, Oklahoma and Utah? This would cost the conference zero televisions in the states of Texas and Oklahoma while bringing in the Salt Lake City market to completely secure the Mountain Time Zone. (Assumes Texas A&M and Oklahoma State to the SEC.)
Would the Texas and Oklahoma politicians ever let that happen? Maybe. Since Houston is a public school and the 3rd largest university in Texas, there would be support. Plus, it would make it so 4 Texas schools are in superconferences instead of just 3. The state of Oklahoma wouldn't have much to gain or lose in the scenario. The politics of breaking up UT/TAMU and OU/OSU may be too difficult to surmount, but it may also be that if each agreed to play every year like CU does with CSU that their respective states would let them separate.
Finally, there's the scenario of having staged expansion. Stage 1 would be Nebraska to the Big 10, CU and Utah to the Pac 10, and the Big 12 saving itself by adding Air Force and BYU (cultural fits with good programs, great facilities and international followings). This may actually be the most likely scenario. Stage 2 wouldn't kick off until the old guard at Notre Dame retired and the younger administrators who favor a conference opted to join the Big 10 (12).
Anyway, that's what I was able to pull this evening from the Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC boards. Crazy stuff. Things should start getting really crazy on Friday.
Lots can and will still happen, but it looks like the 2 things you can take to the bank are Nebraska to the Big 10 and CU to the Pac 10.
Nebraska is voting Friday to make it official, but all the reports are that they have already said "yes" to an invitation. Every Big 10 board is treating Nebraska as the 12th member as a done deal.
The rest of the Big 10 scenario seems to be that Missouri's 50/50. They would be paired with Notre Dame, so it's contingent on a "yes" from ND. For members 15 and 16, there is still a chance it would be Texas and Texas A&M. More likely is Rutgers with either Syracuse or Maryland.
Colorado has the invite to the Pac 10 but the question is who we would be going with. The initial push is what has been reported: Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech. That may get broken up, however.
Not only is there the Big 10 option, we still haven't heard from the SEC. There is absolutely no way the SEC is going to watch the Big 12 fall apart without making a major play to get into Texas. This one may depend on how united Texas and Texas A&M are in this whole deal. A&M would actually prefer the SEC, wanted to go there instead of the Big 12 back in 1994, and doesn't like the travel or the cultural fit in the Pac 10. Texas, though, will not be going to the SEC. The SEC may make a try for 2 or all 3 of A&M, OU and OSU. There's also a chance they could make a play for Missouri if MU gets left out of the Big 10.
Some reports leaked today that the Pac 10 was taking a look at the University of Houston. Is it possible there's a backup plan in place that would send CU to the Pac 10 along with Texas, Texas Tech, Houston, Oklahoma and Utah? This would cost the conference zero televisions in the states of Texas and Oklahoma while bringing in the Salt Lake City market to completely secure the Mountain Time Zone. (Assumes Texas A&M and Oklahoma State to the SEC.)
Would the Texas and Oklahoma politicians ever let that happen? Maybe. Since Houston is a public school and the 3rd largest university in Texas, there would be support. Plus, it would make it so 4 Texas schools are in superconferences instead of just 3. The state of Oklahoma wouldn't have much to gain or lose in the scenario. The politics of breaking up UT/TAMU and OU/OSU may be too difficult to surmount, but it may also be that if each agreed to play every year like CU does with CSU that their respective states would let them separate.
Finally, there's the scenario of having staged expansion. Stage 1 would be Nebraska to the Big 10, CU and Utah to the Pac 10, and the Big 12 saving itself by adding Air Force and BYU (cultural fits with good programs, great facilities and international followings). This may actually be the most likely scenario. Stage 2 wouldn't kick off until the old guard at Notre Dame retired and the younger administrators who favor a conference opted to join the Big 10 (12).
Anyway, that's what I was able to pull this evening from the Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC boards. Crazy stuff. Things should start getting really crazy on Friday.