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Nate Silver Bracket Predictions

'Tini said:
26.8% of their points come from beyond the arc and they get to the line fairly often but not a ton. If their points aren't coming from 3 or the line then where are they coming from? Patterson is the only player on the team to have taken more than 65 three point shots all season but three players have 240+ shots from inside the arc. 10.4% of their shots get blocked to, that's not common if you're shooting from outside.

So you disagree that Scott and Gordon down low isn't the strength of our defense? I'm not saying it's as good as our past D (Dre) but as far as this team goes, it's the strength of our D.


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I'll give everybody a little insight into my preview that will drop tomorrow:


Pitt doesn't take 3's, it's not part of their offense, it has never been in the 10 year coaching history of Dixon. Pitt takes 35.2 % of their shots at the rim, good for a whopping 232nd, they don't attack the rim. They pass the ball around, are patient on offense and take good 2pt jumpers within the offense that are assisted. Not "dribble dribble dribble, huck an off balance mid-range jumper". Good mid-range shots that they shoot above average from (usually the kind of shots I hate FWIW).

And while the strength of the D very well may be Wes and Scott, this isn't your Dre's interior D buffs. Teams shoot an average amount of shots at the rim where they also shoot average against CU - but does it matter? This isn't where Pitt shoots from....
 
Just completed my bracket...used Nate's stuff mostly but picked a few upsets...including CU over Pitt. That nerd better help me win some bank.
 
'Tini said:
I like the statistics and everything, but they need to take into account the style of play. Pitt plays inside on offense which is the strength of our defense. We won't be favored but it's not that extreme.


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What are you, the prediction police?
 
Goose said:
Every metric other than RPI says Pitt is around a 5 seed and we're a double digit. Not sure why everyone thinks that number is crazy.
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Yep. Pitt isn't more talented, but they're as well coached and have more veteran players.
 
Nate Silver will tell you that predicting all 50 states is not much of an accomplishment. Others had 48 or 49 right. There's only 10 or so swing states to begin with.

Pitt's two victories over top 50 RPI teams are to the most jekyll/hyde teams that I'm aware of. How do advanced stats account for talented teams who have a knack for falling asleep at any given time? They should be favored because they have a more veteran line up and because they've consistently played top teams close. But 80%? Come on
 
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