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Official 2016 Coaching Carousel Thread - How safe is Kevin Sumlin´s job?

Orr said:
Another reason it's nice to no longer have a rival. I could be happy being, you know, just successful, without looking over my shoulder.
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Disagree. I think a rival elevates your team. McCartney was very strategic making the Nubs our rival and subsequently elevating our program to the same elite status while here. I would like to see our coaching staff target USC as our rival and circle that game each year as special.
 
buffaholic said:
And with that said, Les Miles is exactly the persona who could inject life into a down-trodden program and make them relevant quickly by attracting recruits based on past reputation. But would he have the desire to work that hard?
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That would be my fear too, although Spurrier's success at SC was impressive - I thought he'd be mailing it in by the time he got there.
 
Hmm...take this with a mountain of salt given the source, but Chipper apparently reported this morning that he has a source on the Miami side that claims Strong has previously indicated he would take the Miami gig if offered. Up through yesterday Chip had said every indication was that Strong would be back for Texas.

However he also said that subsequent to whenever this conversation supposedly happened the Texas admin has reassured Strong that the support issues that occurred under Patterson wouldn't continue.
 
SuperD said:
Hmm...take this with a mountain of salt given the source, but Chipper apparently reported this morning that he has a source on the Miami side that claims Strong has previously indicated he would take the Miami gig if offered. Up through yesterday Chip had said every indication was that Strong would be back for Texas.

However he also said that subsequent to whenever this conversation supposedly happened the Texas admin has reassured Strong that the support issues that occurred under Patterson wouldn't continue.
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IDK, if TT and Bailer beat UT badly, I don't think Strong survives. I doubt a 4-8 record will cut it.
 
leftybuff said:
IDK, if TT and Bailer beat UT badly, I don't think Strong survives. I doubt a 4-8 record will cut it.
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Not sure you can go 6-7 at UT (losing in the Texas Bowl) and follow it up with a non-bowl losing season... and keep your job.
 
Buffnik said:
Not sure you can go 6-7 at UT (losing in the Texas Bowl) and follow it up with a non-bowl losing season... and keep your job.
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Yes, and even if he were to win out this year he would need to do something spectacular next year to stay around. I don't think they would accept incremental improvement from him.
 
MtnBuff said:
Yes, and even if he were to win out this year he would need to do something spectacular next year to stay around. I don't think they would accept incremental improvement from him.
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Comes back to the rival convo between Miles and Saban, Texas fans do not like to lose recruiting battles to A&M so even if UT is getting better they are still mad.
 
bombay said:
It appears that Herman is headed to south carolina. 4.5 million. Seems strange.
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Duff Man said:
I just do not get that move at all.
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Gary Indiana said:
Very surprised he jumped the gun like this. He was one of the top targets and probably could of had his choice of destinations/pay.
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Just to play devil's advocate a bit, I'd completely understand if that was the move for Herman. The way I'd see it, he's got three choices in this context: stay put, take the SC job, or wait for another offer.

  • Stay put
    • Pros: probably secure in his job making $3.0 M/yr (top 35 salary in the country) for another 5-10 years. Proven he can have success, might build Houston into something special and cement his legacy
    • Cons: unlikely to ever get a shot at the CFP due to the conference Houston plays in, any drop off from double-digit wins takes the luster off his resume, makes him unlikely to get a big payday from a P5 school
  • Take the SC job:
    • Pros: $4.5 Million likely to be higher than any other current opening will offer, save perhaps USC. Ceiling just about unlimited at South Carolina. Prior to Spurrier, they had been to 6 Bowls in the previous 20 years, so the fanbase probably not too demanding. Moreover, Spurrier won one divisional title in 10 seasons and I really didn't sense any real demand from their boosters to remove him, so probably a reasonable balance of compensation vs. demands
    • Cons: Likely to be expectations of a bowl every year, since salary in top 10 of CFB. Expected to compete in SEC while not being in or adjacent to the real recruiting hotbeds.
  • Wait for another offer:
    • Pros:
      • Strong might be fired or going to Miami and UT would fit him better considering his coaching history, and he'd have his pick of Texas recruits. LSU might come open as well, and would offer a better platform for success than SC. Both of those jobs are part of the 5-10 programs that would pay more than what SC is offering.
      • Miami is probably an open offer and is probably the best mix of local recruiting talent and degree of difficulty to get to the CFP.
      • Missouri might offer as much as SC, or try to outbid them.
    • Cons:
      • We're seeing right now how demanding both UT and LSU fanbases can be; Strong is in serious danger of getting run off after 23 months. LSU is considering paying a massive buyout to get rid of a coach who has AVERAGED 11 wins/season and has a NC. In addition, at UT there are bizarre politics and demands on the HC due to the LHN commitments.
      • Miami is going to offer much less money than SC
      • Missouri has a weird socio-political environment right now, which impacts the football team. Moreover, there's probably less talent in Missouri and bordering states than at SC. He'd also have to follow Pinkel, who's considered by the MU faithful to be one of the best coaches in the history of the program; tough act to follow.
Considering all of that, is there a reason you WOULDN'T go to SC? The money's the likely best, the fanbase isn't too demanding, and there's plenty of resources to be successful.
 
Herman is in the perfect position. I also saw something where the current extension that is on the table has some language about the texas job where the buyout would be a lot less.

If baylor And TcU can do what they have done over the last ten years I have no doubt houston can do the same thing. He will never lose less than 10 games in that conference with the talent he is bringing in so no rush what so ever. Don't jump for a big job that you might now fit at like Charlie strong did.
 
The money's there at South Carolina, but it'd still be hard to get that excited about the 3rd or 4th best program in the division, probably even the 2nd best program in its own state.
 
Denver_sc said:
Just to play devil's advocate a bit, I'd completely understand if that was the move for Herman. The way I'd see it, he's got three choices in this context: stay put, take the SC job, or wait for another offer.

  • Stay put
    • Pros: probably secure in his job making $3.0 M/yr (top 35 salary in the country) for another 5-10 years. Proven he can have success, might build Houston into something special and cement his legacy
    • Cons: unlikely to ever get a shot at the CFP due to the conference Houston plays in, any drop off from double-digit wins takes the luster off his resume, makes him unlikely to get a big payday from a P5 school
  • Take the SC job:
    • Pros: $4.5 Million likely to be higher than any other current opening will offer, save perhaps USC. Ceiling just about unlimited at South Carolina. Prior to Spurrier, they had been to 6 Bowls in the previous 20 years, so the fanbase probably not too demanding. Moreover, Spurrier won one divisional title in 10 seasons and I really didn't sense any real demand from their boosters to remove him, so probably a reasonable balance of compensation vs. demands
    • Cons: Likely to be expectations of a bowl every year, since salary in top 10 of CFB. Expected to compete in SEC while not being in or adjacent to the real recruiting hotbeds.
  • Wait for another offer:
    • Pros:
      • Strong might be fired or going to Miami and UT would fit him better considering his coaching history, and he'd have his pick of Texas recruits. LSU might come open as well, and would offer a better platform for success than SC. Both of those jobs are part of the 5-10 programs that would pay more than what SC is offering.
      • Miami is probably an open offer and is probably the best mix of local recruiting talent and degree of difficulty to get to the CFP.
      • Missouri might offer as much as SC, or try to outbid them.
    • Cons:
      • We're seeing right now how demanding both UT and LSU fanbases can be; Strong is in serious danger of getting run off after 23 months. LSU is considering paying a massive buyout to get rid of a coach who has AVERAGED 11 wins/season and has a NC. In addition, at UT there are bizarre politics and demands on the HC due to the LHN commitments.
      • Miami is going to offer much less money than SC
      • Missouri has a weird socio-political environment right now, which impacts the football team. Moreover, there's probably less talent in Missouri and bordering states than at SC. He'd also have to follow Pinkel, who's considered by the MU faithful to be one of the best coaches in the history of the program; tough act to follow.
Considering all of that, is there a reason you WOULDN'T go to SC? The money's the likely best, the fanbase isn't too demanding, and there's plenty of resources to be successful.
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Tom Herman stands pat this year, unless USC decides they want him. I don't think LSU does anything with Miles this year for several reasons. If a coaching change is going to cost you upwards of $20m (thats A LOT of money, even for somebody like them), you better be certain you're getting something better in a new staff. Most of the available names are tough sells in that respect. They will more likely ask him to let Cam Cameron (most likely-their offense seems like its Leonard Fournette and not much else) go. This is obviously speculation, but Clay Helton makes sense as a new playcaller for them if Cameron goes. I still get the feeling the inmates are running the asylum at Miami (which means no opening at Texas more than likely)....still reading about Cristobal and that 20 games under.500 or whatever he was at FIU being the leader in the clubhouse. I think Strong is being encouraged by people at UT (Rick Neuheisel put that forth on his show on Sirius last week) to pursue the Miami job so they can avoid a buyout. The Palm Beach Post says he signed a 5 yr/$25 million contract before last year-so his buyout has to be absurd. If I'm CS, I'd make Texas fire me, take their huge chunk of cash, and take a year off and pursue an SEC East opening after next year.
 
TDbuff said:
Wasn't positive on the local view point. I know Clemson has it's detractors. Plus, some people value the SEC membership pretty highly.
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I don't think there's much question Clemson is the top program in the state. But then again, I'm from Colorado.
 
Well, count Les Miles among those who certainly don't believe the reports that Les is coaching for his job.
 
South Carolina interim HC has resigned effective immediately

Fake twitter account, sorry
 
Big Jim said:
Strong appears to be the anti-Urban Meyer.
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I wonder if that's going to work at one of the spotlight elite programs. Those players have been celebrities since middle school. It might be that a HC at a place like that needs to know how to play the game (Urban, Carroll, etc.).
 
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