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Official 2016 Coaching Carousel

Post-bailer Monday Morning reset

Open jobs:

1. Cincinnati- Tommy Tuberville resigns. Meanwhile, Mike Bohn calls Chuck.....MB says P.J. Fleck is a candidate, and HC experience not required. I sent my resume this a.m. Other names: Charles Strong.
2. San Jose St. Ron Carragher fired. Marcus Arroyo, OK St. RB coach a leading candidate,
3. Florida Atl. U- fired Charlie Partridge, Jim Leavitt, Mario Cristobal, and Randy Shannon mentioned.
4. Nevada- Brian Polian out. Marques Tuiasosopo, Chris Klenakis, Louisville CO-OC mentioned. Marques Tuiasosopo, may be out, Jay Norvell, ASU WR Beau Baldwin EWU, HC, and Andy Ludwig, Vandy OC now in the mix.
5. Oregon- Helfrich out. Willie Taggart of USF, a leading candidate, Scott Frost has come out stating he is not a candidate. Sparkles says he is not in contact (which means his agent is talking to them every hour on the hour), Chip Kelly says no thanks, Bryan Harsin, Greg Schiano, Kyle Whittingham, Philip Montgomery, James Franklin, Larry Fedora all being mentioned. UPDATE: P.J. Fleck OUT

Jobs filled:

1. Fresno- Jeff Tedford gets the job, mid-season. Good hire, but the timing is weird. Of note, D II Danny applied and interviewed for the gig, according to the Fresno Bee.
2. FIU- Butch Davis takes the FIU gig. 5 year deal and all the Banana Boat products he wants. HaLk is the OC, [insert laugh track here], until he took his rodeo back to DII, where he belongs.
3. LSU- Ed Orgeron takes the job when Herman's price was apparently to high. Jimbo stays at FSU.
4. UT- Herman to UT. Strong's firing wasn't even out of the AD's mouth before Herman was emptying HCCS' desk...looks like this was in the works for a while. UT apparently talked to Jimbo, Dabo and John Harbaugh.
5. Indiana- Kevin Wilson out, Tom Allen promoted and hired, pretty much all in one day. (h/t unionbuff on the firing, buffnik on the hire)
6. Purdue- Jeff Brohm from WKU gets the nod.
7. Bailer- Matt Rhule, the son of a Nazarene minister, now tasked with coaching FB and restricting the team's Animal House impersonations. (h/t SerenityBuff and BuffedUp).

Secondary openings:

1. UH- Herman hits the road, no names yet, search firm hired. Lane Kiffin seems to be the leading candidate, UH, rather publicly, slams door on Briles..
2. Western Kentucky- Brohm to Purdue.
3. Temple- Rhule to the land of Baptist consent.

Other news: Doeren safe at NCST with the win over UNC.
DII Danny takes the reins at UC-Davis
MikMac staying put.
 
It is a head scratcher, other than bailer was down to HC number 22 on their list. How depressing this must be for Sonny Dykes. Interviews at UH, turned down. Chases bailer, turned down, chases UVA, turned down, basically he has been throwing himself at every DI job for the last couple of years at cannot catch a train out of Berkeley....
Maybe he should have been working harder at winning games at Cal than finding another job and he likely would have gotten other offers.
 
ESPN has confirmed as well.
I'll be skeptical up until the point where I see him actually coaching on the sidelines. This is bailer we're talking about. They've floated every name in the phone book out there as their next coach. Just because ESPN says it, doesn't make it true.
 
Meanwhile...somewhere in Berkeley Sonny Dykes is starting to panic as he realizes he still can't get out of there and he no longer has the Davis Webb band-aid for next season.
 
Bailer could easily be a career ending job (as in 3 and out). They have some talent still, but will have a void, and it will be tough to recruit there if you are not a big name. The results that they had were unprecedented and would be difficult to not fall back, even without rapists wandering amongst them. I don't know why anyone would take that job unless the $$$ was so good, they figure it's their last job either way.
 
I do like Rhule's pedigree, having been a LB, then a defensive coach, then an offensive coach, then a head coach. The job he's done at Temple has been solid.

But man, that's a kick in the nuts for those yahoos who thought they were hiring HCMM or Mike Gundy.
 
bailer is going to be a tough job. 6 win talent (and falling), and a delusional fanbase that has come to expect 10 wins. Also, the refs appear to hate bailer now too. They lead the nation in penalties by an obscene margin that can't be coincidence.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2016/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category14/sort02.html

There's 1 shot in 2017 with a large senior class and fairly large junior class. But no QB, a severe lack of depth in the underclasses, little hope for salvaging the 2017 recruiting class, and a completely new staff & system points to it being a tough season that won't give Rhone the momentum he needs to start the rebuild with a good 2018 class (especially with no in-state ties & no work done on those prospects yet). All signs point to a complete meltdown of that program.
 
I do like Rhule's pedigree, having been a LB, then a defensive coach, then an offensive coach, then a head coach. The job he's done at Temple has been solid.
Could be that Rhule thinks he still needs a stop as a Coordinator in the P5 before he could get a legit shot at the big time. So, until now, he thought his career after this would be Temple -> P5 Coordinator -> P5 HC. Now that has changed to Temple -> **** Bailer HC -> P5 Coordinator -> P5 HC + never actually having to work again if he doesn't want to because **** Bailer threw so much money at him.

Either that or he knows it's a 3 and done situation, and he doesn't care because in year 4 he'll be on a beach with a ****load of **** Bailer's money in his bank account.
 
Could be that Rhule thinks he still needs a stop as a Coordinator in the P5 before he could get a legit shot at the big time. So, until now, he thought his career after this would be Temple -> P5 Coordinator -> P5 HC. Now that has changed to Temple -> **** Bailer HC -> P5 Coordinator -> P5 HC + never actually having to work again if he doesn't want to because **** Bailer threw so much money at him.

Either that or he knows it's a 3 and done situation, and he doesn't care because in year 4 he'll be on a beach with a ****load of **** Bailer's money in his bank account.
That is some seriously dirty money.
 
There's 1 shot in 2017 with a large senior class and fairly large junior class. But no QB, a severe lack of depth in the underclasses, little hope for salvaging the 2017 recruiting class, and a completely new staff & system points to it being a tough season that won't give Rhone the momentum he needs to start the rebuild with a good 2018 class (especially with no in-state ties & no work done on those prospects yet). All signs point to a complete meltdown of that program.
Just to put some numbers with it, here's the skinny on the classes that will theoretically be still on campus next year:

Year (class): Rivals Ranking (# of recruits)
'13 (RS SRs): 31 (22)
'14 (RS JRs/SRs): 34 (27)
'15 (RS SOs/JRs): 43 (19)
'16 (RS FR/SOs): 56 (15)
'17 (FR): NR < 100 (1)

Currently, there are 12 guys graduating this year, 26 who will be considered SRs next year, and 19 who will be JRs. My guess is they'll have some attrition from those numbers since some guys won't have a place in Rhule's system which (I have been told) is drastically different from what Baylor has been running.

There's also a recruiting problem. Rhule's actually been a pretty good recruiter at Temple- this year's is his weakest class and sits at 6th in the AAC. He also probably will not have any problem holding on to the 1 (!) recruit they have committed now. However, Rhule has never recruited TX, and has only recruited west of the Mississippi once- in one year as an assistant DL coach at UCLA. He has one player committed from the Pittsburgh metro area this year, and everyone else is from a city more eastern than that. He's never had a player from TX come to Temple.

As Buffnik points out- this is the year for Baylor. if they can't get any momentum under Rhule, that program could crater. In 2019 they could end up being worse than the '12 Buffs.
 
Just to put some numbers with it, here's the skinny on the classes that will theoretically be still on campus next year:

Year (class): Rivals Ranking (# of recruits)
'13 (RS SRs): 31 (22)
'14 (RS JRs/SRs): 34 (27)
'15 (RS SOs/JRs): 43 (19)
'16 (RS FR/SOs): 56 (15)
'17 (FR): NR < 100 (1)

Currently, there are 12 guys graduating this year, 26 who will be considered SRs next year, and 19 who will be JRs. My guess is they'll have some attrition from those numbers since some guys won't have a place in Rhule's system which (I have been told) is drastically different from what Baylor has been running.

There's also a recruiting problem. Rhule's actually been a pretty good recruiter at Temple- this year's is his weakest class and sits at 6th in the AAC. He also probably will not have any problem holding on to the 1 (!) recruit they have committed now. However, Rhule has never recruited TX, and has only recruited west of the Mississippi once- in one year as an assistant DL coach at UCLA. He has one player committed from the Pittsburgh metro area this year, and everyone else is from a city more eastern than that. He's never had a player from TX come to Temple.

As Buffnik points out- this is the year for Baylor. if they can't get any momentum under Rhule, that program could crater. In 2019 they could end up being worse than the '12 Buffs.

And most importantly, their QB pipeline is a giant, smoking crater.
 
Sadly, I think Rhule is a good hire. I kept tabs on Temple this season because I had to pick 10 games every week for a pool. They were like the Buffs - not only won but covered every week. Consecutive 10 win seasons.
 
Weird hire from a recruiting perspective. Rhule has never coached in TX, and his background is all northeast with the exception of one year at UCLA. He'll get 5 or 6 years there. They've almost given themselves the death penalty with this recruiting class.
 
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