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Official Pac-12 Championship Buffs vs. Washington Score Prediction Thread

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McCaffrey did play against UW and had 12 rushes for 49 yards. He was not the same for weeks. Same for Royce Freeman. Completely shut down.

Game after playing uw, mccaffree had 8 rushes for 35 yards against WSU and then didn't even play the following week against ND.

Royce Freeman against UW? 11 for 50 and left the game. Next game against cal? 15 carries for 10 yards. Against cal....

In earlier responses to my post people were inferring that I didn't think your QB was good. He's good. But we will shut down your run game and force him to throw or if he does want to run he will get hit repeatedly. You will be one dimensional and he's not the kind of QB who's going to give us problems if the run game is shut down.

I have respect for your team and defense in particular but we have very few problems with teams when we can shut down the run game. USC was a problem for us because they have the athletes to match us and have BOTH a strong running game and passing attack.




Thanks for your response. It will be interesting to see how it goes.

I'd point out that you played Stanford without McCaffrey and without their two starting corners. We certainly struggled offensively at Palo Alto (really, we struggled to convert in the red zone), but we shut them down (at least score-wise) even more than you did. I see you've adopted the convenient "took time to return to form" narrative which suits your world view.

Do you have any respect that our defense can contain UW's offense, to some degree?
 
Help me with your Strength of Schedule. Seriously. You played Michigan and LOST. Are you really saying your other 2 games are much stronger than the crappy 3 teams we played. One game difference. Pac-12 play matters more....and we have the edge.
Yep. We suck. Pro Football Focus rates our secondary as the best in the FBS. They use stupid stats and advanced metrics to rate players. Pishpaw. Our QB isn't mobile. He's just one of three QBs this year to throw for 300+ yds and rush for 100+ yds in the same game. The Huskies have had one of the easiest schedules in the FBS, but that doesn't matter because CU has one of the toughest. Colorado doesn't have coaches with more/better experience. Colorado's players aren't hungrier after being slighted for years. Nope. This one will be easy for the dawgs. No need to worry about the Buffs.
 
Help me with your Strength of Schedule. Seriously. You played Michigan and LOST. Are you really saying your other 2 games are much stronger than the crappy 3 teams we played. One game difference. Pac-12 play matters more....and we have the edge.
We have the same record in Pac play. Explain your edge--I don't think I'm following here.
 
Help me with your Strength of Schedule. Seriously. You played Michigan and LOST. Are you really saying your other 2 games are much stronger than the crappy 3 teams we played. One game difference. Pac-12 play matters more....and we have the edge.
You have the edge? We have the same record. With the loss to the same team, whereas ours was at U$C and much closer, with a backup QB, and yours was at home with your entire team and you got boat raced.

Outside of that, we win all, you win all.

Explain to me how that is an "edge"?
 
Let me help you and then maybe you can help yourself by correcting your egregious error about conference play (hint: we have the same record. We fared better against our common loss too).

We both played teams who play in the FCS Big Sky conference. Yes. The problem is that our other two OOC opponents are MUCH better than the two y'all played.

We played Michigan in the Big House and lost. Our senior QB threw a monster TD on one leg and had to leave the game with a high ankle sprain. A player who never played before took over in crunch time against one of the nation's top five defenses. You guys played Rutgers at home. This is the same team who didn't score in four conference games. They only scored more than twenty points twice in conference play. Your vaunted defense let that powerhouse score 13 at your place.

We played Colorado State who is not great, but they are 7-5 in a very competitive Mountain West conference. CSU is going to a bowl and have a win against one of the teams playing for the Mountain West conference title. They scored 63 on the road in that game. We held them to one TD on a neutral site. You all played Idaho at home who also have a winning record. They play in the Sun Belt conference that has 4 of 11 teams with a winning record. Like you dub, Idaho just beats up on bad teams.

I could go on, but you simply glossed over all of the other facts I typed out. You'll probably ignore these ones too. But you're right, udub is not a paper tiger. Y'all haven't feasted on pass defenses with an average rank in the mid 80s. Y'all didn't get lucky when Stanford's best corners and all conference d-line player missed their games against you dub & you dub little brother. Y'all didn't struggle to beat Arizona (a team we beat by 25). Y'all didn't struggle against the conference's second best secondary at your place. Out of mind means it didn't happen.

Help me with your Strength of Schedule. Seriously. You played Michigan and LOST. Are you really saying your other 2 games are much stronger than the crappy 3 teams we played. One game difference. Pac-12 play matters more....and we have the edge.
 
Our confidence was based in statistical realities. The ability for our D to reduce Falk's production was what the metrics said would happen. Lo and behold, Falk had his worst game of the year against us. You dub's fans believe they're the greatest even though there are a ton of cracks in their resume. Those holes are the reason why the CFB playoff committee has been reluctant to rank them highly even with an 11-1 record.

We may very well lose; but, it won't be because of you dub's awesomeness. It'll be because we don't execute. If we play Colorado Football as we've shown this year on D & running the rock (thereby setting up play action), it's lights out for the huskies. If we are careless with our ball handling in the run and pass game, we will lose.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/bi...l&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=college

Easy now. WSU started posting statements like this before our game (based on our confidence), and it didn't end well for them.
I fully expect a great game between very good teams. I'm assuming the football team from UW is not overlooking the Buffs.
 
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I have watched games and have seen your QB, even in HS. Stats are great but if you want to understand my basis, look at how the huskies have fared against opponents when we were able to shut down the run game. Rule out SC who has a good QB and the Arizona game which was simply a bad game for us all around. You will get behind, you won't be able to run and you'll have to rely on a passing offense...again throwing into a secondary with 3 players who are likely to be drafted in the NFL and one player who was freshman defender of the year. Simply put, it's a bad matchup for you guys.

When you played a great defense like Stanford, look at your score. Look at what we did to stanford ( again, shut down their running game and forced them to throw ).
Why do you get to throw out USC and Arizona? CU lost AT USC by 4 with the same QB that beat UDub AT UDub. And CU didn't go into OT at Arizona. WRT Utah, the CU and UDub had about the same outcome. As for throwing into a "secondary with 3 players who are likely to be drafted into the NFL" you could also be talking about CU.
I'm not discounting the UDub talent, just saying the two teams are lot more similar that most realize.

Mcaffery and Freeman both took multiple weeks to return to form after they played against our defense. It's about the matchup.
 
In earlier responses to my post people were inferring that I didn't think your QB was good. He's good. But we will shut down your run game and force him to throw or if he does want to run he will get hit repeatedly.

Wait a second, are you implying that if Sefo runs, the Washington defense will tackle him?! This changes everything. He can't take that kind of abuse.
 
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Someone do a welfare check on Christian McCaffery, he played UW earlier this season and may not have psychologically recovered yet.
 
Someone do a welfare check on Christian McCaffery, he played UW earlier this season and may not have psychologically recovered yet.
Managed to run for 1600 yards this season, but was definitely mentally harmed by UW. Or he was still hurt from a prior game. But nah, edge UW.
 
Here's my simplistic way of looking at things. Both teams have the same conference record. Both teams lost only to USC in conference. Both teams have great defenses. Both teams have great receivers. It's our first time in the Pac12 Championship game, and theirs as well. If we played their schedule we would be 11-1 and if they played our schedule they would be 10-2. We have Sefo, they have Browning. Essentially on paper the teams are pretty much like identical brothers from different mothers. Their only difference is playing a cupcake OOC schedule thus avoiding an early loss, playing USC late in the year keeping them undefeated long enough to become entrenched near the top of the ratings, and CU having been a doormat for so long it took 7-8 wins before anybody really started to take us even a little bit seriously. We are not big underdogs. Buffs win because they are the Buffs.
 
Here's my simplistic way of looking at things. Both teams have the same conference record. Both teams lost only to USC in conference. Both teams have great defenses. Both teams have great receivers. It's our first time in the Pac12 Championship game, and theirs as well. If we played their schedule we would be 11-1 and if they played our schedule they would be 10-2. We have Sefo, they have Browning. Essentially on paper the teams are pretty much like identical brothers from different mothers. Their only difference is playing a cupcake OOC schedule thus avoiding an early loss, playing USC late in the year keeping them undefeated long enough to become entrenched near the top of the ratings, and CU having been a doormat for so long it took 7-8 wins before anybody really started to take us even a little bit seriously. We are not big underdogs. Buffs win because they are the Buffs.
Because a Buff is a Buff, and that is enough!
 
I've been lingering reading some of the thoughts and predictions for the week ... I'd be surprised if I saw a bunch of Buffs fans saying that they were going to get beat so glad that I'm not seeing it. That being said, I've seen a number of things this week from both UW and CU fans that may be missing the mark. I do think that there are reasons that some are saying that this may not be a great matchup for Colorado. Likewise, I do think that there are some things that Colorado does that could be challenges for UW. A few thoughts on some things that I see for this game (note: I've watched closely the last 2 games for Colorado against Utah and Wazzu as well as pieces of the game against USC):

There's no question that Jim Leavitt has worked wonders with the defense. The secondary is aggressive and contains probably the closest athletes on the team to that of elite PAC levels (as a positional group). The front 7 is sound fundamentally but I do think that they do lack a bit in the size/speed department. That being said, Leavitt does a great job of bringing pressure (I believe the stat I saw this week had Leavitt bringing pressure 40%+ of plays this year) ... and that goes hand in hand with the secondary playing their aggressive press schemes that takes away the short and intermediate passing game for the offense. It's the leading indicator as to why in conference Colorado is giving up less than a 50% completion rate and teams are averaging 6 yards per attempt. Those are high end numbers. However, there are a few things that I've noticed defensively that could provide some opportunities for an offense. First, in conference Colorado's giving up on average over 12 yards per completion ... which basically tells me that when teams are able to complete passes, there are opportunities for explosive plays. Additionally, the balance of Colorado's success in the run game defensively came against ASU (3rd string QB), Stanford (force QB to beat you), and UCLA (couldn't run against a wet paper bag) ... in most games teams were able to average in the 4 to 4.5 yards per carry range on average. As it pertains to UW, the biggest comparison that I can see to the skill position talent on Colorado’s schedule is Oregon, USC, and Michigan. If you look at the per attempt/completion rates in those games compared to the rest of the schedule, and the secondary definitely looks more gettable for an offense. The other thing that really stood out to me with Utah and Wazzu is that these are teams where as a DC you can really try to dictate teams being 1 dimensional (Utah struggles to throw and the Cougs basically refuse to for the most part). The other comparison to the 3 teams I mentioned above is that all of these teams have the ability to be successful offensively in both phases of the game. In the Utah game, what I saw from the Colorado defense was a definitive stacking of the box to stop the run forcing Troy Williams to beat with his arm (which he can’t do). Against Wazzu, it was taking away what they like to do in the short/intermediate passing game forcing either shots over the top against press coverage or the Cougs to run the football. I thought that the Cougs missed a few shots that were there as well as had a few drops. But when I looked at the USC game, I saw a defense that was more respective of USC’s speed on the outside and that created some holes in the passing game as Colorado had to go a little more zone in their coverage looks versus an aggressive press man.

That leads me a bit into where I can see Washington having some success offensively. USC was able to be very successful against UW for a couple of reasons. First, between their CB tandem of Jackson/Marshall, they have the kind of athletes that can run with Ross/Pettis … with particular respect to Ross, few CBs in the country can match his 4.2-4.3 level speed. But the bigger issue that UW had in that game was what USC was able to do on the DL and their domination of the LOS. That’s probably the best game that USC played all year defensively along the LOS … in particular their ability to cause problems on the interior of the line. The challenge with USC though is that their athletic ability on all 3 levels is as good as you’ll find on the West Coast and matches anybody that you’ll see in the nation. So when you can’t run inside, and you can’t get outside because of defensive team speed, that cripples any offense. The good news for Washington though is that there are few teams in the country that have that elite level of athleticism that can really cause problems. What most teams have been faced with for the balance of the season is trying to figure out whether or not they are going to drop the extra man into the box to stop the run (thereby exposing at least 1 CB to an island) or playing more of an umbrella coverage to prevent the big play but then leaving a favorable situation in the box for the run game. What complicates matters so much for the defense is that Washington runs a lot of 1 RB, 2 TE, and 2 WR sets. If you run 7 in the box, that’s been very advantageous to UW because while I’ve seen some in this thread really question the receiving accomplishments of the TEs, from a blocking standpoint, they are upper tier blockers. If you put 8 in the box, then you get the shot deep … which in large part is why Browning is the PAC Offensive POY and Ross/Pettis have had monster years. From a running game perspective, the 2 RBs for UW really bring different things to the table. Miles Gaskin is more of an elusive RB that can set up blocks well (particularly on counters) and can escape what looks like a good run fit and leave you wondering what happened. Lavon Coleman is much more of a downhill physical runner that can get you on your heels quickly. It’s really a damned if you do damned if you don’t offense. What I expect from the Colorado defense is that they will come out like most teams and force UW to beat them over the top putting the game in the hands of their secondary to rise to the challenge. UW will likely see favorable situations and try to take shots. How those plays go early in the game will dictate what happens going forward … if the shots are successful I would expect Colorado to go back into more of a bend but don’t break defense looking for opportunities to create turnovers and hold in the red zone (both strengths of Colorado’s defense). If not, then I could see UW either force feeding the run game trying to see if they can run against the 8 in the box or looking to spread the defense out a little bit more and seeing if they can attack the speed of Colorado’s LBs and depth DBs.

Defensively, UW really doesn’t change who they are based on the opponent. Their DL is very salty up the middle with 3 NFL caliber DTs that will rotate. The per metrics defensively are slightly skewed in places because there have been a number of games where the gas has been let off in the 2nd half (go look at the score comparisons per quarter this year for UW). If there’s an area to attack, it would be on the perimeter at Psalm Wooching and Conor O’Brien (who replaced the injured Joe Mathis – probably the biggest injury loss to UW). UW in an attempt to minimize some of that has moved Budda Baker from his S position to more of a slot/rover position turning the defense from a 3-4-4 defense to that of more like a 2-4-5 or 3-3-5 depending on what we’re trying to do. For anybody that hasn’t watched much of Budda Baker, watch some film and see his instincts. They are elite. On the outside, teams really haven’t thrown at Sidney Jones all year … he’ll be a 1st round pick in the NFL Draft. On the other side, Kevin King is very long and may honestly be a better long-term CB prospect at the next level. These two make it very difficult to throw to the outside or deep as on top of that, because UW doesn’t blitz often, there’s almost always safety coverage over the top which can limit the ability to even try to take shots deep. If there’s a place to attack the defense, it’s what USC did by bringing crossing routes at multiple levels over the middle of the field. The challenge is that these are often very dangerous passes that require elite decision making and accuracy. The UW defense largely limits explosive plays and forces teams to go 15 plays for 75 yards to get TDs. That’s a challenging proposition for any offense to consistently execute and not make mistakes over the course of 15 plays.

Offensively, what I’ve seen from Colorado is that Lindsay is largely used going outside the tackles and with swing passes in the passing game … Sefo does the balance of the interior running. The offense runs a lot of RPO looking for opportunities to get the ball into the hands of the WRs in favorable situations. Sefo will take shots down the field particularly to Shay Fields … who could play for anybody in the conference. I’ve noticed that Colorado runs their WR splits quite wide looking to force/dictate getting numbers either out of the box or decide on RPOs. Against Washington, I think that could be a challenge for Colorado as with the quality of the DTs, Washington is not likely to put huge numbers into the box and will remain confident that the DTs can stonewall the run game and allow the ILBs to clean up the remains. Washington has begun to blitz just a little more in recent weeks but they will never be confused with all out blitzes … it’s more of “the offense doesn’t think we’re coming and there’s an opportunity and go” type of blitz. Sefo will have to be on point and accurate with his throws over the middle of the field on slants and ins … he can’t be late or off target on those throws. The windows can be there, but they aren’t vast or lengthy. One other thing that I noticed coming out of the games that I watched was that Colorado’s WRs aren’t particularly adept at scramble routes after the initial routes have broken down combined with Sefo not being particularly strong when he leaves the pocket of looking down the field. If I had one major complaint about Sefo, it would be that he at times looks to get happy feet and that can lead to some issues with accuracy. While there’s no question that Sefo will run, the QBs that have given UW the most problem with scrambling this year have been the more mobile types like Brandon Dawkins of Arizona (much of their offense in that game came from Dawkins freelancing). What I expect that you’ll see from the UW defense is that they won’t be spying Sefo as much as trying to keep him in the pocket, take away his passing lanes, and see if he gets some happy feet.

The other area where I see UW having a significant edge is in the return game as Colorado’s special teams return defense is definitely not strong (also an area where you typically see athletic disadvantages come to fruition – I saw it with UW a lot 3-5 years ago). Normally as the underdog you look for opportunities to find ways to steal possessions or points whether it be through turnovers, trick plays, or special teams. Colorado needs a very strong game on special teams in this game IMO.
In summary, I think too many people are focusing on the matchup between UW’s offense and Colorado’s defense. I think that it will largely be a good battle where both will win some and lose some. Where I do look for the game to be decided though is with Colorado’s offense versus UW’s defense. As I look at what Colorado does offensively, similar to how I feel each year when UW plays Wazzu, I don’t see a lot of ways for Colorado to consistently attack the defense in a way that will produce tangible results. For Colorado to win the game IMO, they need to be in a position where they have a decided edge in turnovers (including a possible score) as well as get something out of special teams. What I think is more likely though is that the special teams edge will go in the direction of a large return for UW.

If both teams play their best, UW is the stronger, more balanced team. I like UW to win something like 34-13 or something like that … although the game will in a lot of ways feel closer than that. I could definitely see UW with at least one of a defensive or special teams TD (particularly late on the defensive side) that really bumps up the margin of victory.
 
I've been lingering reading some of the thoughts and predictions for the week ... I'd be surprised if I saw a bunch of Buffs fans saying that they were going to get beat so glad that I'm not seeing it. That being said, I've seen a number of things this week from both UW and CU fans that may be missing the mark. I do think that there are reasons that some are saying that this may not be a great matchup for Colorado. Likewise, I do think that there are some things that Colorado does that could be challenges for UW. A few thoughts on some things that I see for this game (note: I've watched closely the last 2 games for Colorado against Utah and Wazzu as well as pieces of the game against USC):

There's no question that Jim Leavitt has worked wonders with the defense. The secondary is aggressive and contains probably the closest athletes on the team to that of elite PAC levels (as a positional group). The front 7 is sound fundamentally but I do think that they do lack a bit in the size/speed department. That being said, Leavitt does a great job of bringing pressure (I believe the stat I saw this week had Leavitt bringing pressure 40%+ of plays this year) ... and that goes hand in hand with the secondary playing their aggressive press schemes that takes away the short and intermediate passing game for the offense. It's the leading indicator as to why in conference Colorado is giving up less than a 50% completion rate and teams are averaging 6 yards per attempt. Those are high end numbers. However, there are a few things that I've noticed defensively that could provide some opportunities for an offense. First, in conference Colorado's giving up on average over 12 yards per completion ... which basically tells me that when teams are able to complete passes, there are opportunities for explosive plays. Additionally, the balance of Colorado's success in the run game defensively came against ASU (3rd string QB), Stanford (force QB to beat you), and UCLA (couldn't run against a wet paper bag) ... in most games teams were able to average in the 4 to 4.5 yards per carry range on average. As it pertains to UW, the biggest comparison that I can see to the skill position talent on Colorado’s schedule is Oregon, USC, and Michigan. If you look at the per attempt/completion rates in those games compared to the rest of the schedule, and the secondary definitely looks more gettable for an offense. The other thing that really stood out to me with Utah and Wazzu is that these are teams where as a DC you can really try to dictate teams being 1 dimensional (Utah struggles to throw and the Cougs basically refuse to for the most part). The other comparison to the 3 teams I mentioned above is that all of these teams have the ability to be successful offensively in both phases of the game. In the Utah game, what I saw from the Colorado defense was a definitive stacking of the box to stop the run forcing Troy Williams to beat with his arm (which he can’t do). Against Wazzu, it was taking away what they like to do in the short/intermediate passing game forcing either shots over the top against press coverage or the Cougs to run the football. I thought that the Cougs missed a few shots that were there as well as had a few drops. But when I looked at the USC game, I saw a defense that was more respective of USC’s speed on the outside and that created some holes in the passing game as Colorado had to go a little more zone in their coverage looks versus an aggressive press man.

That leads me a bit into where I can see Washington having some success offensively. USC was able to be very successful against UW for a couple of reasons. First, between their CB tandem of Jackson/Marshall, they have the kind of athletes that can run with Ross/Pettis … with particular respect to Ross, few CBs in the country can match his 4.2-4.3 level speed. But the bigger issue that UW had in that game was what USC was able to do on the DL and their domination of the LOS. That’s probably the best game that USC played all year defensively along the LOS … in particular their ability to cause problems on the interior of the line. The challenge with USC though is that their athletic ability on all 3 levels is as good as you’ll find on the West Coast and matches anybody that you’ll see in the nation. So when you can’t run inside, and you can’t get outside because of defensive team speed, that cripples any offense. The good news for Washington though is that there are few teams in the country that have that elite level of athleticism that can really cause problems. What most teams have been faced with for the balance of the season is trying to figure out whether or not they are going to drop the extra man into the box to stop the run (thereby exposing at least 1 CB to an island) or playing more of an umbrella coverage to prevent the big play but then leaving a favorable situation in the box for the run game. What complicates matters so much for the defense is that Washington runs a lot of 1 RB, 2 TE, and 2 WR sets. If you run 7 in the box, that’s been very advantageous to UW because while I’ve seen some in this thread really question the receiving accomplishments of the TEs, from a blocking standpoint, they are upper tier blockers. If you put 8 in the box, then you get the shot deep … which in large part is why Browning is the PAC Offensive POY and Ross/Pettis have had monster years. From a running game perspective, the 2 RBs for UW really bring different things to the table. Miles Gaskin is more of an elusive RB that can set up blocks well (particularly on counters) and can escape what looks like a good run fit and leave you wondering what happened. Lavon Coleman is much more of a downhill physical runner that can get you on your heels quickly. It’s really a damned if you do damned if you don’t offense. What I expect from the Colorado defense is that they will come out like most teams and force UW to beat them over the top putting the game in the hands of their secondary to rise to the challenge. UW will likely see favorable situations and try to take shots. How those plays go early in the game will dictate what happens going forward … if the shots are successful I would expect Colorado to go back into more of a bend but don’t break defense looking for opportunities to create turnovers and hold in the red zone (both strengths of Colorado’s defense). If not, then I could see UW either force feeding the run game trying to see if they can run against the 8 in the box or looking to spread the defense out a little bit more and seeing if they can attack the speed of Colorado’s LBs and depth DBs.

Defensively, UW really doesn’t change who they are based on the opponent. Their DL is very salty up the middle with 3 NFL caliber DTs that will rotate. The per metrics defensively are slightly skewed in places because there have been a number of games where the gas has been let off in the 2nd half (go look at the score comparisons per quarter this year for UW). If there’s an area to attack, it would be on the perimeter at Psalm Wooching and Conor O’Brien (who replaced the injured Joe Mathis – probably the biggest injury loss to UW). UW in an attempt to minimize some of that has moved Budda Baker from his S position to more of a slot/rover position turning the defense from a 3-4-4 defense to that of more like a 2-4-5 or 3-3-5 depending on what we’re trying to do. For anybody that hasn’t watched much of Budda Baker, watch some film and see his instincts. They are elite. On the outside, teams really haven’t thrown at Sidney Jones all year … he’ll be a 1st round pick in the NFL Draft. On the other side, Kevin King is very long and may honestly be a better long-term CB prospect at the next level. These two make it very difficult to throw to the outside or deep as on top of that, because UW doesn’t blitz often, there’s almost always safety coverage over the top which can limit the ability to even try to take shots deep. If there’s a place to attack the defense, it’s what USC did by bringing crossing routes at multiple levels over the middle of the field. The challenge is that these are often very dangerous passes that require elite decision making and accuracy. The UW defense largely limits explosive plays and forces teams to go 15 plays for 75 yards to get TDs. That’s a challenging proposition for any offense to consistently execute and not make mistakes over the course of 15 plays.

Offensively, what I’ve seen from Colorado is that Lindsay is largely used going outside the tackles and with swing passes in the passing game … Sefo does the balance of the interior running. The offense runs a lot of RPO looking for opportunities to get the ball into the hands of the WRs in favorable situations. Sefo will take shots down the field particularly to Shay Fields … who could play for anybody in the conference. I’ve noticed that Colorado runs their WR splits quite wide looking to force/dictate getting numbers either out of the box or decide on RPOs. Against Washington, I think that could be a challenge for Colorado as with the quality of the DTs, Washington is not likely to put huge numbers into the box and will remain confident that the DTs can stonewall the run game and allow the ILBs to clean up the remains. Washington has begun to blitz just a little more in recent weeks but they will never be confused with all out blitzes … it’s more of “the offense doesn’t think we’re coming and there’s an opportunity and go” type of blitz. Sefo will have to be on point and accurate with his throws over the middle of the field on slants and ins … he can’t be late or off target on those throws. The windows can be there, but they aren’t vast or lengthy. One other thing that I noticed coming out of the games that I watched was that Colorado’s WRs aren’t particularly adept at scramble routes after the initial routes have broken down combined with Sefo not being particularly strong when he leaves the pocket of looking down the field. If I had one major complaint about Sefo, it would be that he at times looks to get happy feet and that can lead to some issues with accuracy. While there’s no question that Sefo will run, the QBs that have given UW the most problem with scrambling this year have been the more mobile types like Brandon Dawkins of Arizona (much of their offense in that game came from Dawkins freelancing). What I expect that you’ll see from the UW defense is that they won’t be spying Sefo as much as trying to keep him in the pocket, take away his passing lanes, and see if he gets some happy feet.

The other area where I see UW having a significant edge is in the return game as Colorado’s special teams return defense is definitely not strong (also an area where you typically see athletic disadvantages come to fruition – I saw it with UW a lot 3-5 years ago). Normally as the underdog you look for opportunities to find ways to steal possessions or points whether it be through turnovers, trick plays, or special teams. Colorado needs a very strong game on special teams in this game IMO.
In summary, I think too many people are focusing on the matchup between UW’s offense and Colorado’s defense. I think that it will largely be a good battle where both will win some and lose some. Where I do look for the game to be decided though is with Colorado’s offense versus UW’s defense. As I look at what Colorado does offensively, similar to how I feel each year when UW plays Wazzu, I don’t see a lot of ways for Colorado to consistently attack the defense in a way that will produce tangible results. For Colorado to win the game IMO, they need to be in a position where they have a decided edge in turnovers (including a possible score) as well as get something out of special teams. What I think is more likely though is that the special teams edge will go in the direction of a large return for UW.

If both teams play their best, UW is the stronger, more balanced team. I like UW to win something like 34-13 or something like that … although the game will in a lot of ways feel closer than that. I could definitely see UW with at least one of a defensive or special teams TD (particularly late on the defensive side) that really bumps up the margin of victory.
tl;dr
 
McCaffrey did play against UW and had 12 rushes for 49 yards. He was not the same for weeks. Same for Royce Freeman. Completely shut down.

Game after playing uw, mccaffree had 8 rushes for 35 yards against WSU and then didn't even play the following week against ND.

Royce Freeman against UW? 11 for 50 and left the game. Next game against cal? 15 carries for 10 yards. Against cal....

In earlier responses to my post people were inferring that I didn't think your QB was good. He's good. But we will shut down your run game and force him to throw or if he does want to run he will get hit repeatedly. You will be one dimensional and he's not the kind of QB who's going to give us problems if the run game is shut down.

I have respect for your team and defense in particular but we have very few problems with teams when we can shut down the run game. USC was a problem for us because they have the athletes to match us and have BOTH a strong running game and passing attack.

We played the duck before you did. Freeman didn't do a damn thing that day, either. He's had a bad year, and it has nothing to do with you guys. Not trying to trash talk with this next comment, but USC's athletes are better than yours. Ours too. They're on par with Alabama and Ohio State when they're on. By the way, strong run game and strong pass game? We've had two different QBs throw for 300 and run for 100 in games in the same season.
 
I've been lingering reading some of the thoughts and predictions for the week ... I'd be surprised if I saw a bunch of Buffs fans saying that they were going to get beat so glad that I'm not seeing it. That being said, I've seen a number of things this week from both UW and CU fans that may be missing the mark. I do think that there are reasons that some are saying that this may not be a great matchup for Colorado. Likewise, I do think that there are some things that Colorado does that could be challenges for UW. A few thoughts on some things that I see for this game (note: I've watched closely the last 2 games for Colorado against Utah and Wazzu as well as pieces of the game against USC):

There's no question that Jim Leavitt has worked wonders with the defense. The secondary is aggressive and contains probably the closest athletes on the team to that of elite PAC levels (as a positional group). The front 7 is sound fundamentally but I do think that they do lack a bit in the size/speed department. That being said, Leavitt does a great job of bringing pressure (I believe the stat I saw this week had Leavitt bringing pressure 40%+ of plays this year) ... and that goes hand in hand with the secondary playing their aggressive press schemes that takes away the short and intermediate passing game for the offense. It's the leading indicator as to why in conference Colorado is giving up less than a 50% completion rate and teams are averaging 6 yards per attempt. Those are high end numbers. However, there are a few things that I've noticed defensively that could provide some opportunities for an offense. First, in conference Colorado's giving up on average over 12 yards per completion ... which basically tells me that when teams are able to complete passes, there are opportunities for explosive plays. Additionally, the balance of Colorado's success in the run game defensively came against ASU (3rd string QB), Stanford (force QB to beat you), and UCLA (couldn't run against a wet paper bag) ... in most games teams were able to average in the 4 to 4.5 yards per carry range on average. As it pertains to UW, the biggest comparison that I can see to the skill position talent on Colorado’s schedule is Oregon, USC, and Michigan. If you look at the per attempt/completion rates in those games compared to the rest of the schedule, and the secondary definitely looks more gettable for an offense. The other thing that really stood out to me with Utah and Wazzu is that these are teams where as a DC you can really try to dictate teams being 1 dimensional (Utah struggles to throw and the Cougs basically refuse to for the most part). The other comparison to the 3 teams I mentioned above is that all of these teams have the ability to be successful offensively in both phases of the game. In the Utah game, what I saw from the Colorado defense was a definitive stacking of the box to stop the run forcing Troy Williams to beat with his arm (which he can’t do). Against Wazzu, it was taking away what they like to do in the short/intermediate passing game forcing either shots over the top against press coverage or the Cougs to run the football. I thought that the Cougs missed a few shots that were there as well as had a few drops. But when I looked at the USC game, I saw a defense that was more respective of USC’s speed on the outside and that created some holes in the passing game as Colorado had to go a little more zone in their coverage looks versus an aggressive press man.

That leads me a bit into where I can see Washington having some success offensively. USC was able to be very successful against UW for a couple of reasons. First, between their CB tandem of Jackson/Marshall, they have the kind of athletes that can run with Ross/Pettis … with particular respect to Ross, few CBs in the country can match his 4.2-4.3 level speed. But the bigger issue that UW had in that game was what USC was able to do on the DL and their domination of the LOS. That’s probably the best game that USC played all year defensively along the LOS … in particular their ability to cause problems on the interior of the line. The challenge with USC though is that their athletic ability on all 3 levels is as good as you’ll find on the West Coast and matches anybody that you’ll see in the nation. So when you can’t run inside, and you can’t get outside because of defensive team speed, that cripples any offense. The good news for Washington though is that there are few teams in the country that have that elite level of athleticism that can really cause problems. What most teams have been faced with for the balance of the season is trying to figure out whether or not they are going to drop the extra man into the box to stop the run (thereby exposing at least 1 CB to an island) or playing more of an umbrella coverage to prevent the big play but then leaving a favorable situation in the box for the run game. What complicates matters so much for the defense is that Washington runs a lot of 1 RB, 2 TE, and 2 WR sets. If you run 7 in the box, that’s been very advantageous to UW because while I’ve seen some in this thread really question the receiving accomplishments of the TEs, from a blocking standpoint, they are upper tier blockers. If you put 8 in the box, then you get the shot deep … which in large part is why Browning is the PAC Offensive POY and Ross/Pettis have had monster years. From a running game perspective, the 2 RBs for UW really bring different things to the table. Miles Gaskin is more of an elusive RB that can set up blocks well (particularly on counters) and can escape what looks like a good run fit and leave you wondering what happened. Lavon Coleman is much more of a downhill physical runner that can get you on your heels quickly. It’s really a damned if you do damned if you don’t offense. What I expect from the Colorado defense is that they will come out like most teams and force UW to beat them over the top putting the game in the hands of their secondary to rise to the challenge. UW will likely see favorable situations and try to take shots. How those plays go early in the game will dictate what happens going forward … if the shots are successful I would expect Colorado to go back into more of a bend but don’t break defense looking for opportunities to create turnovers and hold in the red zone (both strengths of Colorado’s defense). If not, then I could see UW either force feeding the run game trying to see if they can run against the 8 in the box or looking to spread the defense out a little bit more and seeing if they can attack the speed of Colorado’s LBs and depth DBs.

Defensively, UW really doesn’t change who they are based on the opponent. Their DL is very salty up the middle with 3 NFL caliber DTs that will rotate. The per metrics defensively are slightly skewed in places because there have been a number of games where the gas has been let off in the 2nd half (go look at the score comparisons per quarter this year for UW). If there’s an area to attack, it would be on the perimeter at Psalm Wooching and Conor O’Brien (who replaced the injured Joe Mathis – probably the biggest injury loss to UW). UW in an attempt to minimize some of that has moved Budda Baker from his S position to more of a slot/rover position turning the defense from a 3-4-4 defense to that of more like a 2-4-5 or 3-3-5 depending on what we’re trying to do. For anybody that hasn’t watched much of Budda Baker, watch some film and see his instincts. They are elite. On the outside, teams really haven’t thrown at Sidney Jones all year … he’ll be a 1st round pick in the NFL Draft. On the other side, Kevin King is very long and may honestly be a better long-term CB prospect at the next level. These two make it very difficult to throw to the outside or deep as on top of that, because UW doesn’t blitz often, there’s almost always safety coverage over the top which can limit the ability to even try to take shots deep. If there’s a place to attack the defense, it’s what USC did by bringing crossing routes at multiple levels over the middle of the field. The challenge is that these are often very dangerous passes that require elite decision making and accuracy. The UW defense largely limits explosive plays and forces teams to go 15 plays for 75 yards to get TDs. That’s a challenging proposition for any offense to consistently execute and not make mistakes over the course of 15 plays.

Offensively, what I’ve seen from Colorado is that Lindsay is largely used going outside the tackles and with swing passes in the passing game … Sefo does the balance of the interior running. The offense runs a lot of RPO looking for opportunities to get the ball into the hands of the WRs in favorable situations. Sefo will take shots down the field particularly to Shay Fields … who could play for anybody in the conference. I’ve noticed that Colorado runs their WR splits quite wide looking to force/dictate getting numbers either out of the box or decide on RPOs. Against Washington, I think that could be a challenge for Colorado as with the quality of the DTs, Washington is not likely to put huge numbers into the box and will remain confident that the DTs can stonewall the run game and allow the ILBs to clean up the remains. Washington has begun to blitz just a little more in recent weeks but they will never be confused with all out blitzes … it’s more of “the offense doesn’t think we’re coming and there’s an opportunity and go” type of blitz. Sefo will have to be on point and accurate with his throws over the middle of the field on slants and ins … he can’t be late or off target on those throws. The windows can be there, but they aren’t vast or lengthy. One other thing that I noticed coming out of the games that I watched was that Colorado’s WRs aren’t particularly adept at scramble routes after the initial routes have broken down combined with Sefo not being particularly strong when he leaves the pocket of looking down the field. If I had one major complaint about Sefo, it would be that he at times looks to get happy feet and that can lead to some issues with accuracy. While there’s no question that Sefo will run, the QBs that have given UW the most problem with scrambling this year have been the more mobile types like Brandon Dawkins of Arizona (much of their offense in that game came from Dawkins freelancing). What I expect that you’ll see from the UW defense is that they won’t be spying Sefo as much as trying to keep him in the pocket, take away his passing lanes, and see if he gets some happy feet.

The other area where I see UW having a significant edge is in the return game as Colorado’s special teams return defense is definitely not strong (also an area where you typically see athletic disadvantages come to fruition – I saw it with UW a lot 3-5 years ago). Normally as the underdog you look for opportunities to find ways to steal possessions or points whether it be through turnovers, trick plays, or special teams. Colorado needs a very strong game on special teams in this game IMO.
In summary, I think too many people are focusing on the matchup between UW’s offense and Colorado’s defense. I think that it will largely be a good battle where both will win some and lose some. Where I do look for the game to be decided though is with Colorado’s offense versus UW’s defense. As I look at what Colorado does offensively, similar to how I feel each year when UW plays Wazzu, I don’t see a lot of ways for Colorado to consistently attack the defense in a way that will produce tangible results. For Colorado to win the game IMO, they need to be in a position where they have a decided edge in turnovers (including a possible score) as well as get something out of special teams. What I think is more likely though is that the special teams edge will go in the direction of a large return for UW.

If both teams play their best, UW is the stronger, more balanced team. I like UW to win something like 34-13 or something like that … although the game will in a lot of ways feel closer than that. I could definitely see UW with at least one of a defensive or special teams TD (particularly late on the defensive side) that really bumps up the margin of victory.
Good read. Thanks.

And for the record, I'm salty up the middle too.
 
His points were dumb, especially with the run defense. So if you take out the five worst teams on the schedule, they are worse against the run. No ****.
I didn't say I agreed. But he shared what he was thinking in a clear (albeit wordy) way. Basically he thinks that we've been able to shut down one-dimensional offenses with a one-dimensional (at a time) defense. He believes that the Huskies are not only more talented across the board, but multi-dimensional. He believes that The Buffs will fail when forced to simultaneously cover the run and pass.

I guess we'll know a lot more in just over 24 hours.
 
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