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Playoffs are really not that out of reach...

Corn Manelton

Well-Known Member
The big key here for the Buffs is that Va. Tech pulls the upset of Clemson. Remember that in the two previous CFP seasons, ALL eight participants have been conference champions. So just ONE non conf. champion this year would be unprecedented. Below are the four possible scenarios that I see. The last one is the one that gives the Buffs a chance.


IF Washington beats Colorado and IF Clemson takes care of Va. Tech, here's the final 4:

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington

The committee will justify this group by saying that these are all one loss or less teams. Michigan and the Big 10 Champ. will be excluded due to two losses.
Final 4 (if Colorado beats Washington)

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Wisconsin/Penn State winner

Final 4 (if Va. Tech beats Clemson)

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Washington
4. Wisconsin/Penn State Winner
* committe will avoid Big 10 teams playing in semi-final

Final 4 (If Washington AND Clemson lose). Here's where it could get crazy.

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Wisconsin/Penn State Winner
4. Colorado (Possibly Oklahoma)

I think in this final scenario, Buffs jump Oklahoma and the justification is the lack of a Big 12 title game. In reality, I think the committee can't give the bid to a team from the worst power 5 conference, that was pummeled in it's two big OOC games and had a poor showing in last year's playoffs.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
Highlander said:
My biggest concern is that Michigan may be 5th this week and in line to jump Clemson if they lose.
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I'm with you. Michigan will have 2 losses (one to an unranked team) and no conference championship but own the head to head over us. We would have 2 losses to ranked top teams on the road but I could easily see the committee putting them in over us still. Either way, we just need to make sure to take care of business and let the chips fall where they may.
 
Highlander said:
My biggest concern is that Michigan may be 5th this week and in line to jump Clemson if they lose.
Click to expand...

B1G is clearly the strongest conference this year so that's a very fair argument. All those guys (Mich, tOSU, Wiscy, PSU) more or less are all ranked and all scored losses to each other.

I don't see Colorado cracking into that final 4.
 
WasianCU said:
I'm with you. Michigan will have 2 losses (one to an unranked team) and no conference championship but own the head to head over us. We would have 2 losses to ranked top teams on the road WITHOUT OUR BUFFALO HEART but I could easily see the committee putting them in over us still. Either way, we just need to make sure to take care of business and let the chips fall where they may.
Click to expand...
fify
 
WasianCU said:
I'm with you. Michigan will have 2 losses (one to an unranked team) and no conference championship but own the head to head over us. We would have 2 losses to ranked top teams on the road but I could easily see the committee putting them in over us still. Either way, we just need to make sure to take care of business and let the chips fall where they may.
Click to expand...
Michigan also has 3 wins against top 10 teams - that's a hell of a resume booster.
 
We're playing a really, really good football team on Friday, and we need to worry about beating them first and foremost. That said, I think Michigan is out, even with the head to head against us. They're .500 away from Ann Arbor IIRC, and their wins are over the worst P5 team in Rutgers and a pathetic Michigan State team. There's also the matter of yesterday-I think Michigan had several opportunities to put Ohio State away, and couldn't do it. They need to be playing in the Orange, Cotton, or Rose bowls. I'd love to see them again in Pasadena.
 
WasianCU said:
I'm with you. Michigan will have 2 losses (one to an unranked team) and no conference championship but own the head to head over us. We would have 2 losses to ranked top teams on the road but I could easily see the committee putting them in over us still. Either way, we just need to make sure to take care of business and let the chips fall where they may.
Click to expand...
You don't understand how it works then.....

They don't put teams in because "they had their shot..."

They put the best teams in.... and Michigan beat Wisconsin, PSU, and Colorado..... if the committee has to choose a 2 loss team, Michigan is in over those 3...
 
PhillyBuff said:
You don't understand how it works then.....

They don't put teams in because "they had their shot..."

They put the best teams in.... and Michigan beat Wisconsin, PSU, and Colorado..... if the committee has to choose a 2 loss team, Michigan is in over those 3...
Click to expand...

Nah. Michigan finished 3rd in its Division and lost its last 2 games. They've got no shot.
 
Buffnik said:
Nah. Michigan finished 3rd in its Division and lost its last 2 games. They've got no shot.
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No shot?

You do realize that they are ranked 5th in both polls after this weekend..... they are in front of Wisconsin, PSU, and us in one poll..... and in front of PSU and us in the other....

If Washington loses to CU.... Michigan goes
 
PhillyBuff said:
No shot?

You do realize that they are ranked 5th in both polls after this weekend..... they are in front of Wisconsin, PSU, and us in one poll..... and in front of PSU and us in the other....

If Washington loses to CU.... Michigan goes
Click to expand...

CFP hasn't come out yet. That's the only poll that matters. Also, their polls up until the last one don't factor in conference champion as part of the criteria and that's their #1 thing. I'm not sure that they don't throw a curveball by leaving Ohio State out. No way in hell they put 2 teams in that didn't win their conference... from the same conference, no less.
 
PhillyBuff said:
No shot?

You do realize that they are ranked 5th in both polls after this weekend..... they are in front of Wisconsin, PSU, and us in one poll..... and in front of PSU and us in the other....

If Washington loses to CU.... Michigan goes
Click to expand...
Those polls don't matter. Michigan is out. Most likely the winner of Wiscy and PSU replaces Washington when we win, with a smaller chance of us or OU being selected.
 
For those of you that think we have a shot....

Just write down the ranked wins and losses( what the team that beat them is ranked) for Colorado, PSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin. It's not even a debate....... Michigan is clearly at the head of these 4 teams.

You all put too much stock in conference championships. They reward teams for playing tough schedules and Michigan back doored into getting us as a great non confence game.
 
PhillyBuff said:
For those of you that think we have a shot....

Just write down the ranked wins and losses( what the team that beat them is ranked) for Colorado, PSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin. It's not even a debate....... Michigan is clearly at the head of these 4 teams.

You all put too much stock in conference championships. They reward teams for playing tough schedules and Michigan back doored into getting us as a great non confence game.
Click to expand...
I'll bet you $100 Michigan does not make the playoff no matter what happens next week.

EDIT: And we can cancel the bet if Bama, Clemson, and Washington all win.
 
PhillyBuff said:
You don't understand how it works then.....

They don't put teams in because "they had their shot..."

They put the best teams in.... and Michigan beat Wisconsin, PSU, and Colorado..... if the committee has to choose a 2 loss team, Michigan is in over those 3...
Click to expand...
I think you need to re-read my post. I was agreeing that Michigan has a real shot to get in over us if we win this week.
 
Ruckus said:
I'll bet you $100 Michigan does not make the playoff no matter what happens next week.

EDIT: And we can cancel the bet if Bama, Clemson, and Washington all win.
Click to expand...
I'll take it if we win.

I am sure Michigan gets in if we win....

If Clemson loses.... it changes things. Part of this equation is that Michigan has a top 5 win if we are conference champs.

Let me run my quadratic regression algorithm for that scenario and get back to you....
 
SINKRATZ said:
Wait, so you think they'll take 2 Big 10 teams who didn't win their conference, but leave out the actual champ? You're crazy dude.
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If Penn State beats Wisconsin, they might only take one B1G team since they beat OSU and there's really no controversy on who deserves to represent the conference.
 
WasianCU said:
I think you need to re-read my post. I was agreeing that Michigan has a real shot to get in over us if we win this week.
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Don't mistake my posts for my inability to quote the wrong person.... I am 42 using this new technology for Allbuffs has me stumped..... I still like the old N@$* Buffs site. (Just kidding smitty/denver)... that was meant for the guy that said Michigan had their chance..... not for you....
 
Why does this forum continue to tilt at windmills? I hope we beat Washington and get to the Rose bowl. Only Washington has a chance to represent the PAC 12 this year if we can't beat them.
 
SINKRATZ said:
Wait, so you think they'll take 2 Big 10 teams who didn't win their conference, but leave out the actual champ? You're crazy dude.
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"Win their conference". ..... due to a tiebreaker...

Both Wisconsin and Penn State lost to Michigan by a lot....

And they are only ranked high due to awful non conference scheduling.....

Your argument sounds good on its face.... but Conference Champ is very misleading.... and the committee knows that.... a committee member already said it....

If we wanted a playoff with conference champs, we would have designed it that way....
 
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In the "long shot" scenario in the OP where CU gets in, there is no way they would take Michigan over CU. That would mean three Big Ten teams. Not going to happen.

At this stage, it looks like Alabama, two Big Ten teams, plus one of a) Clemson, b)Oklahoma, and c) winner of Washington/CU.

Clemson needs to lose, then it's a beauty pageant between Oklahoma and the PAC 12 winner.
 
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