I am not surre what to think of the partnership. As long as CU goes to the Pac 10 I will be happy. Good scenario IMHO - but totally based upon the voices in my head:
- CU joins Pac 10
- Both conferences get a super-size tv deal, but conferences stay/operate separate
- Conferences share TV revenues - let the Texass schools fight UT for their chunk...Pac shares equally
- As part of deal, conferences agree to OOC conference challenges - similar to hoops. Can spread games throughout OOC to make sure there are attractive games each week before conference starts.
The Pac does NOT share equally. In fact they have a more skewed distribution towards the TV teams than the Big 12 does. So USC gets a much higher % of the cut over Washington State than Texas does over Baylor.
This is another reason why the Big-Pac partnership will probably be the best that the conferences can do, because both conferences reward the teams that get the national TV deals the most.
Most likely, you can expect that Fox Sports will enter into this as both conferences have long-standing ties with that networks. I would be willing to say that there is decent odds that the BigPac partnership ends up being a combined national deal on ABC/ESPN for like 20 to 24 football games per season + conference championship games, with a scheduling variant that puts the best Big 12 teams against the best Pac-10 teams whenever ABC/ESPN wants to cover what would appear to be a "slow" slate of games. This would be done ahead of time, and would be ABC/ESPN's directive to matchup Texas-USC on a weekend that lacks other "nationally appealing" games to drive ratings.
Fox would step in as a 49% of two conference branded networks or might sell off a controlling stake in Fox College Sports Pacific and FCS Central, with the conference possibly buying in as owners of their own networks (this could help the Big 12 to renegotiate out of their ABC/ESPN deal). Those TV networks already have a jump-start on distribution throughout the regions they serve and could help ease the transition.
Fox might even be willing to bid against ABC/ESPN for the primary rights if they can get the nuts to invest in college football to that extent.
The other player could be Comcast/NBC Universal/Versus who has a recently successful relationship with CAA Media Ventures, the agency hired to market the TV rights for the Pac-10.
There is certainly little doubt that these conferences would enter into an agreement such as this, and then "raid" each others membership, so if CU had any hopes of moving to the Pac-10 there would have to be something brokered well in advance with full notice given to each party and some acceptable compromise being given.
If the Big 12 loses any members, BYU could be in prime position to fill a slot, with Utah going to the Pac; there would be no legislative fallout and with the Big-Pac agreement on scheduling their rivalry game would be protected.
The question then becomes who is the 12th Pac member and who is the 12th member of the Big 12 if they lose a second school to Big Ten expansion?
New Mexico could be in a very lucrative spot, with the Pac being the conference that makes the most sense, and having a need to upgrade their basketball membership. Hawaii could even factor in for the Pac at that point.
For the Big 12 I wonder if they would bite the bullet on either TCU or Boise State? If you already have BYU and CU, adding Boise could make for a very intriguing North division in football. Market wise they offer something in between Lubbock and Omaha, but nationally have gained a good reputation in recent years. Most likely they would avoid them due to the TV market issue, small stadium, and lack of other quality sports programs. TCU would be a redundant market and only feasible if they booted Baylor out of the conference.
If Nebraska & Missouri jump ship:
PAC-12
Pacific Division
Washington
Washington State
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
USC
Southwest Division
Cal
UCLA
Arizona
Arizona State
Utah
Hawaii
BIG 12
West Division
Colorado
BYU
New Mexico
Texas Tech
Texas
Texas A&M
Central Division
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State
Baylor (TCU)
I highly doubt that AFA would be considered for any membership openings. They are a very good athletic department for where they compete and I don't think they really care about being in a "BCS" conference, and they aren't exactly dominant in their market of Colo Springs (TV wise). Of course their coach does, but he would be the last person to have any say-so in a the military academies conference alignment. They could just as easily go independent if their conference took a big hit to revenues and appeal of conference members.