OK, Snow mentioned in a recruit thread that he was hoping we'd recruit another big for the class of 2013. While I agree with him, I don't think Tad does (which is probably good news for all Buffs fans everywhere). Honestly, I've been pondering this project for a while, but that post made me realize it's time to take a look. What exactly is Tad going for line-up wise? Are we looking at a traditional lineup (PG, 2 wings, 2 bigs)? Are we going with a more traditional college lineup (3 guards, 2 bigs)? Some sort of hybrid? Honestly, I don't think this post will contain any clear answers, but it might lead us all a little in that direction.
The first thing I did was look at Tad's teams at UNC. Now I'll be the first to admit that I do'nt know much about Tad's players in Greeley, so I'm largely going off of listed heights & weights for this analysis. There's a chance there could have been a freak of nature like The Mayor who is a PG in a SF's body, but it's unlikely in the Big Sky.
In his first year there, he had 8 players playing at least 40% of the minutes available (Neal Kingman was at 39.6%, so I rounded up). His starting lineup consisted of two smaller guards (5'10", 175 lbs; 6'1", 190), a swingman (6'6", 185) and two hybrid 3-4 types (6'7", 230; 6'7", 230). His key players off of the bench were 5'9", 165; 6'3", 200; and 6'6", 200.
In year two, he had 6 players playing at least 40% of the minutes available, and another two who were above 35% so I added them. The starting lineup was four smaller guards (5'9", 165; 5'10", 160; 6'0", 175; 6'0", 210) and one hybrid 3-4 (6'7", 230). Off of the bench he had one swingman (6'6", 200), a hybrid 3-4 (6'7", 230) and a big (6'8", 200).
In his final year at UNC, Tad had 8 players once again playing at least 40% of the minutes available. The starting lineup was three guards (5'9", 155; 6'0", 170; 6'0", 210), a swingman (6'6", 210) and a big (6'8", 200). Off of the bench he had one guard (6'1", 175), a hybrid 3-4 (6'7", 195) and a big (6'7", 230).
Looking over that, it appears that while at UNC Tad tended to go with a 3 guard, 2 big lineup -- with one of the bigs usually being "smaller" (a hybrid 3-4 type guy). Now some of that could be because he was in the Big Sky, and his hands were tied on what he could recruit (because let's face it, if you're 6'10" and can manage to not accidentally light yourself on fire during a game, you can usually get some mid-major interest if not higher).
But then there's his time at CU. Last year we largely went with a three guard, 2 big lineup (Nate, The Mayor, Carlon, Dre & Austin). Some of that was due to limitations that we had on the roster from Bzdelik's time. But now Tad's had a chance to really make an imprint on the roster. The only guy on the team that was really a Bzzz recruit is Simba. So, let's look at this current roster (I also included commit Jaron Hopkins and three other recruits who we're in the running for to get a bit more of an idea -- the numbers at the top represent the positions on the floor):
* I only have Talton & Stalzer as PG's, but odds are they could play the 2 as well. I just don't know enough about them to mark that down.
Honestly, I think it's becoming more and more clear that Tad is planning on running a 3 guard offense with two bigs. Now it's a different version of what he did at UNC as a lot of his guards are bigger guards, giving them even more flexibility, but it's roughly the same thing. The key for me is seeing how many of the 3-4 hybrids Tad has gone after. He has Dre. XJ is going to fill those shoes next year (if not sooner), and we're looking at guys like Allen, Lexing and Thomas who are all capable of playing that position as well.
Now this isn't to say that Tad is going to turn down big men. Let's not kid ourselves, if in two years De'Ron Davis wants to commit, Tad will happily welcome him to Boulder. Same with guys in the 2014 class like Evan Fitzner, Malik Pope and Jack Williams. But I think Tad is going with quality over size, and is saying that he'd rather have the slightly undersized PF like Dre or XJ who's more talented than the big stiff in the middle who just takes up space. This is why you're going to see a lot more SG & SF's on the recruit lists than you will PF's & C's.
The first thing I did was look at Tad's teams at UNC. Now I'll be the first to admit that I do'nt know much about Tad's players in Greeley, so I'm largely going off of listed heights & weights for this analysis. There's a chance there could have been a freak of nature like The Mayor who is a PG in a SF's body, but it's unlikely in the Big Sky.
In his first year there, he had 8 players playing at least 40% of the minutes available (Neal Kingman was at 39.6%, so I rounded up). His starting lineup consisted of two smaller guards (5'10", 175 lbs; 6'1", 190), a swingman (6'6", 185) and two hybrid 3-4 types (6'7", 230; 6'7", 230). His key players off of the bench were 5'9", 165; 6'3", 200; and 6'6", 200.
In year two, he had 6 players playing at least 40% of the minutes available, and another two who were above 35% so I added them. The starting lineup was four smaller guards (5'9", 165; 5'10", 160; 6'0", 175; 6'0", 210) and one hybrid 3-4 (6'7", 230). Off of the bench he had one swingman (6'6", 200), a hybrid 3-4 (6'7", 230) and a big (6'8", 200).
In his final year at UNC, Tad had 8 players once again playing at least 40% of the minutes available. The starting lineup was three guards (5'9", 155; 6'0", 170; 6'0", 210), a swingman (6'6", 210) and a big (6'8", 200). Off of the bench he had one guard (6'1", 175), a hybrid 3-4 (6'7", 195) and a big (6'7", 230).
Looking over that, it appears that while at UNC Tad tended to go with a 3 guard, 2 big lineup -- with one of the bigs usually being "smaller" (a hybrid 3-4 type guy). Now some of that could be because he was in the Big Sky, and his hands were tied on what he could recruit (because let's face it, if you're 6'10" and can manage to not accidentally light yourself on fire during a game, you can usually get some mid-major interest if not higher).
But then there's his time at CU. Last year we largely went with a three guard, 2 big lineup (Nate, The Mayor, Carlon, Dre & Austin). Some of that was due to limitations that we had on the roster from Bzdelik's time. But now Tad's had a chance to really make an imprint on the roster. The only guy on the team that was really a Bzzz recruit is Simba. So, let's look at this current roster (I also included commit Jaron Hopkins and three other recruits who we're in the running for to get a bit more of an idea -- the numbers at the top represent the positions on the floor):
Name | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Askia Booker | X | X | |||
Spencer Dinwiddie | X | X | X | ||
Eli Stalzer* | X | ||||
Xavier Talton* | X | ||||
Jeremy Adams | X | X | |||
Sabatino Chen | X | X | |||
Chris Jenkins | X | X | |||
Xavier Johnson | X | X | |||
Andre Roberson | X | X | X | ||
Wesley Gordon | X | X | X | ||
Josh Scott | X | X | |||
Shane Harris-Tunks | X | ||||
Ben Mills | X | ||||
Jaron Hopkins | X | X | X | ||
Dakarai Allen | X | X | X | ||
Tre'Shaun Lexing | X | X | |||
Dustin Thomas | X | X |
* I only have Talton & Stalzer as PG's, but odds are they could play the 2 as well. I just don't know enough about them to mark that down.
Honestly, I think it's becoming more and more clear that Tad is planning on running a 3 guard offense with two bigs. Now it's a different version of what he did at UNC as a lot of his guards are bigger guards, giving them even more flexibility, but it's roughly the same thing. The key for me is seeing how many of the 3-4 hybrids Tad has gone after. He has Dre. XJ is going to fill those shoes next year (if not sooner), and we're looking at guys like Allen, Lexing and Thomas who are all capable of playing that position as well.
Now this isn't to say that Tad is going to turn down big men. Let's not kid ourselves, if in two years De'Ron Davis wants to commit, Tad will happily welcome him to Boulder. Same with guys in the 2014 class like Evan Fitzner, Malik Pope and Jack Williams. But I think Tad is going with quality over size, and is saying that he'd rather have the slightly undersized PF like Dre or XJ who's more talented than the big stiff in the middle who just takes up space. This is why you're going to see a lot more SG & SF's on the recruit lists than you will PF's & C's.