The issue here is that Colorado does not recruit in B12 country. The relationship between Texas and Colorado ranges from disinterested to negative. When CU does not fill it's roster with the best athletes from Big 12 country, the relationship suffers. The B12 allegence isn't strong enough to replace the personal connection that comes with a Mason Crosby or Terrence Wheatly turning heads.
Colorado and the Denver market turn their collective noses up on all things mid-west and especially all things Texas. The psuedo scandal of the Barnett era combined with the ineptitude of Hawkins era added to the inability to recruit has basically made CU irrelevent in the Big 12. Who in their right minds, outside of a few hard core fans, are going to tune in Colorado football in DFW? The murder of Ft. Worth native Darrant Williams added just an other black mark on Denver's reputation.
In Denver, there are enough Nebraska fans and transplants from Big 8 Country and from Texas who are football fans that hold on to out of state allegiences. Even without CU in the Big 12, the Denver market will continue to draw viewers. The Big 12 won't lose that much at because CU isn't loved and worshipped in Denver the same way programs are loved eleswhere in the Big 12. The impact of the CU market on television sets can be measured by The.MTN network. Enough said.
TCU, on the other hand, is loved by Ft. Worth. Although the student population of TCU is 70% smaller than CU, the attendence at TCU games is only 18% less against a steady diet of crappy MWC diet of every team not named BYU or Utah...MWC schools that aren't exactly hot TV properties. Now imagine what would happen if TCU were to join the B12. Amon Carter stadium would need an expansion because it would sell out against virtually every B12 opponent. There are plenty of transplants from NE, KS, MO and OK who have escaped the harsh realities of the Midwest to benefit from the economic opportunities of Dallas. All these transplants in the metroplex would tune in to a TCU-KU game, where they might tune out when the Longhorns or Sooners play. TCU recruits DFW highschools very strongly and TCU turns that local talent into nationally ranked winners. A strong local bond convert passionate friday night fans into more Saturday afternoon TV viewers.
Now for the numbers.
Denver is the nation's 18th largest TV market with a value of $261M with NCAA viewers who will still tune in to watch top 25 teams compete. How much will the B12 value shrink by dropping a bottom feeder with limited local passion, a bare minimum of sports, and light weight boosters? Plus Denver isn't growing as fast as DFW and keeps losing corporate jobs. Let's assume NCAA revenue accounts for 0.5% of Denver's market value, and that 25% of those viewers would stop watching B12 broadcasts if CU left. Value of CU to B12 $261x0.05x0.25=$330K
DFW is the nation's 4th largest with a value of $484M, has survived the economic downturn better than most cities by attracting business, has better FB talent, better facilities, and a captive TV audience who is not tempted by out door recreational activities. Assume NCAA programming represents 0.51% of DFW's revenue and TCU would draw 1% more viewers than a CU broadcast. The value of adding TCU is $484x0.51%x1.01=$2.5M.
Plus factor in the value of the national market. Which program has a higher probability of fielding a top 25 ranked team, TCU or CU? If the answer is TCU, then the value of TCU only increases from there.
I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but the CU community needs to rally and become competitive. This means the CUAD and admin actually showing a commitment to winning, and the state of Colorado actually embrasing their football team and strengthening football culture. Right now CU's getting out gunned by private schools that are much smaller. And the trends don't look all that good.
Source of media $$& values:
http://adamschreck.wordpress.com/2010/01/18/top-50-tv-markets-ranked-by-2009-revenue-bia/
The team has made a habit of squandering it's opportunities when games have been picked up nationally.