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Official Buffs Dance Resume Thread

We are going to be a handful against a team that has not played us before. I would really like to play a team that does not have the best backcourt press in college B ball, but we are a handful. Specially if we do not play a first half like AZ today :)

Excited for the Dance stage.....
 
Palm has CU now a 7 in the East facing Temple, then West Virginia

Lunardi has CU an 8 in the Midwest facing Cincinnai

Buffs average out as the final 7 seed (Bracket Matrix)
 
ahoelsken said:
Heres what I don't get-Dayton has the same number of top 100 wins we do (9). Their best win came against Iowa (RPI 23) on a neutral floor. We'll have three wins after today that are better than that. (I would expect Arizona to move up today after the win over us) Our worst loss was UCLA (101-on the road). They have a loss at home to Rhode Island (RPI 104) and at La Salle (RPI 229).

Iowa also has 9 top 100 wins. They have sweeps of Michigan State and Purdue, which are impressive, but we compare well with the W's over Oregon, Cal, Oregon State (RPI 28), and Arizona. They've also got two bad losses (Illinois-155-which came today, and Penn State-111-who we beat) that are uglier than UCLA.

Wisconsin has 10 top 100 wins, but here's the kicker with them. They're currently losing to the Corn (RPI 170). They have lost to Georgetown, Marquette, and Northwestern (all of whom have worse RPIs than UCLA does). In addition, there are losses on their resume to UW-Milwaukee and Western Illinois. Both of those teams have sub-150 RPIs, and both those losses were at Madison.

I used these two profiles because Jerry Palm has both Dayton and Iowa as 6 seeds. Lunardi is in agreement on Dayton and Iowa, and he's also got Wisconsin as a 6. If you take the names off the front of the jerseys when comparing them to us, what makes Dayton, Iowa, and in Lunardi's case Wisconsin worthy of being 1-2 seed lines higher than us?
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This is a great post - and one that I largely agree with. However, there's one aspect that you overlooked. Here's a blind resume test showing each team's records on both neutral sites and road games. Due to pure laziness, I'm using the KenPom ranking of the teams instead of RPI rankings, so do take that in to account as there are some differences between the two systems.

Team #1
Neutral record: 2-1
Neutral wins (opponents KP ranking): #19, #67
Road record: 8-2
Road wins (opponents KP ranking): #26, #72, #93, #100, #161, #167, #205, #241

Team #2
Neutral record: 1-2
Neutral wins (opponents KP ranking): #35
Road record: 6-5
Road wins (opponents KP ranking): #19, #25, #41, #122, #137, #216

Team #3
Neutral record: 2-3
Neutral wins (opponents KP ranking): #137, #193
Road record: 4-7
Road wins (opponents KP ranking): #103, #157, #193, #209

Team #4
Neutral record: 2-3
Neutral wins (opponents KP ranking): #11, #278
Road record: 6-5
Road wins (opponents KP ranking): #3, #15, #56, #105, #122, #290

In order, they are Dayton, Wisconsin, Colorado and Iowa. Our RPI is great, and I have to salute Tad for that, but our neutral/road records suck. The committee does take that into account too because these tourney games will be played in neutral sites. Honestly, this is the only thing that's keeping me up at night in regards to us dancing. I'm pretty sure I'm chicken little here, but I'm still a little nervous. A win yesterday would have been huge.
 
scoob said:
My money is on 10. I'd be plenty ok with that too. I think were dreaming to expect a 7 and I think I'd rather be a 10 than an 8 or 9.
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I prefer to have low expectations and be pleasantly surprised, rather than high expectations and be disappointed. So I'll plan on 10. (But we deserve 7...)
 
BuffLuKe said:
They banned themselves right, Louisville?
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Yes they did. Not well worded on my part, but was imaging a press like theirs. If I was going to play to beat the Buffs, I would press the hell out us. Hoping we get a team that does not make Back court pressure, a work of art. Like Louisville for example.
 
It would require some interesting logic if we're a 10 or 11. If they want to focus heavily on away from home, that's where they can get us. It's not like we're the only ones with that flaw though -- OSU, for one, has been poor. Add me in to preferring 10 over 8/9. At least we've then got a prayer of surviving the weekend
 
CVilleBuff said:
It would require some interesting logic if we're a 10 or 11. If they want to focus heavily on away from home, that's where they can get us. It's not like we're the only ones with that flaw though -- OSU, for one, has been poor. Add me in to preferring 10 over 8/9. At least we've then got a prayer of surviving the weekend
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Yes, if we're going for practical vs prestige the 10 would be nice. Still have to get that first game though...
 
Eggon said:
Yes they did. Not well worded on my part, but was imaging a press like theirs. If I was going to play to beat the Buffs, I would press the hell out us. Hoping we get a team that does not make Back court pressure, a work of art. Like Louisville for example.
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No doubt, that's our kryptonite it seems.
 
I am not as worried about a team that would "press" us as much as those teams that play the perimeter hard and are athletic enough to compensate for it. Arizona did a great job of applying pressure on the ball around the three point line and we simply could not hit back cuts towards the basket like we needed to. I think the officiating played into that because even when we got near the basket we didn't get calls and we missed a ton of layups. It seems like TA and Dom have figured out how to get past a press but then teams are athletic enough to apply crazy on the ball pressure we tent to struggle.
 
Eggon said:
Yes they did. Not well worded on my part, but was imaging a press like theirs. If I was going to play to beat the Buffs, I would press the hell out us. Hoping we get a team that does not make Back court pressure, a work of art. Like Louisville for example.
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Just change Louisville to West Virginia and call it good.
 
Today's games we care about (Buffs currently sit at RPI 35):

UConn (RPI 59) vs Cincinnati (RPI 39), right now ESPN2. Need Huskies to come back & win.
George Washington vs St Joseph's (RPI 32), 12:30 on NBCS. St. Joe's favored by 2. GW fighting for bubble life at RPI 62. Go GW!
Savannah State vs Hampton (RPI 172), 4:00. Hampton favored by 6.5 and can give the Buffs a small RPI bump with the win.
Providence (RPI 36) vs Villanova, 4:30 on FSI. Providence jumps CU in RPI and seed line with a win. Nova favored by 8.5 and needs to win.
Bowling Green vs Akron (RPI 29), 4:30. Akron favored by 8.5 and hard to see them losing, but it would sure be nice if they did.
Notre Dame (RPI 31) vs North Carolina, 5:00 on ESPN. Go Tar Heels! Favored by 7.
Arizona vs Oregon, 7:00 on PACN. We played each twice, so this doesn't mean a whole lot. Only listed since we care about PAC Champ.
Davidson vs St. Bonaventure (RPI 25), 7:00 on NBCS. If Bonnies lose, it could change seeding in our favor. Only favored by 1.
Seton Hall (RPI 28) vs Xavier, 7:00 on FS1. The Hall's win over Creighton jumped us, but this could pull them back. X favored by 5.5.
Georgia vs South Carolina (RPI 53), 7:00 on SECN. "Bracketologists" have SC seeded near us. They lose, they might not make Dance. Go UGA! Just a 1.5 point dawg.
CSU (RPI 176) vs Fresno State (RPI 78), 9:30. CSU is a 3.5 pt dog and has a great shot here to make a move to the Top 150.
Cal vs Utah, 9:30 on FS1. Again, doesn't really matter other than interest in who wins the Pac tourney.
 
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Cville & Buffnik - you have done an awesome job on your updates all season. Could I beg for one last refresh going in to the weekend about which games I should care about as a layman/casual bball fan who just figured out this afternoon he isn't skiing this weekend?
begging.jpg
 
Highlander said:
Cville & Buffnik - you have done an awesome job on your updates all season. Could I beg for one last refresh going in to the weekend about which games I should care about as a layman/casual bball fan who just figured out this afternoon he isn't skiing this weekend?
begging.jpg
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No problem. I'll update the OP after tonight's games so that we've got that up-to-date heading into Saturday. I was also going to do some updates to this thread on the games we care about.

I was also going to do some other stuff in some of our other threads. There will be a ton of content for tomorrow.
 
Buffnik said:
Today's games we care about (Buffs currently sit at RPI 35):

UConn (RPI 59) vs Cincinnati (RPI 39), right now ESPN2. Need Huskies to come back & win.
George Washington vs St Joseph's (RPI 32), 12:30 on NBCS. St. Joe's favored by 2. GW fighting for bubble life at RPI 62. Go GW!
Savannah State vs Hampton (RPI 172), 4:00. Hampton favored by 6.5 and can give the Buffs a small RPI bump with the win.
Providence (RPI 36) vs Villanova, 4:30 on FSI. Providence jumps CU in RPI and seed line with a win. Nova favored by 8.5 and needs to win.
Bowling Green vs Akron (RPI 29), 4:30. Akron favored by 8.5 and hard to see them losing, but it would sure be nice if they did.
Notre Dame (RPI 31) vs North Carolina, 5:00 on ESPN. Go Tar Heels! Favored by 7.
Arizona vs Oregon, 7:00 on PACN. We played each twice, so this doesn't mean a whole lot. Only listed since we care about PAC Champ.
Davidson vs St. Bonaventure (RPI 25), 7:00 on NBCS. If Bonnies lose, it could change seeding in our favor. Only favored by 1.
Seton Hall (RPI 28) vs Xavier, 7:00 on FS1. The Hall's win over Creighton jumped us, but this could pull them back. X favored by 5.5.
Georgia vs South Carolina (RPI 53), 7:00 on SECN. "Bracketologists" have SC seeded near us. They lose, they might not make Dance. Go UGA! Just a 1.5 point dawg.
CSU (RPI 176) vs Fresno State (RPI 78), 9:30. CSU is a 3.5 pt dog and has a great shot here to make a move to the Top 150.
Cal vs Utah, 9:30 on FS1. Again, doesn't really matter other than interest in who wins the Pac tourney.
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Shouldn't we theoretically be rooting for somebody not named Utah to win the Pac 12 tourney given that we have wins over each of the other three?
 
ahoelsken said:
Shouldn't we theoretically be rooting for somebody not named Utah to win the Pac 12 tourney given that we have wins over each of the other three?
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Played each of them twice, so there's not much that's going to change our RPI. Theoretically, Arizona was home/neutral so it has the least impact on RPI but we're talking thousandths of a point with that stuff.

We do want them all to end up as Top 25 RPI games even though CU's record wasn't good against them (3-5) with 2 other Top 25 loss games in neutrals versus ISU and SMU for 3-7. Then we're 1-2 against 26-50 (OSU & USC), 5-1 against 51-100 (BYU, Stanford, Washington, ASU), 2-1 vs 101-150 (UCLA, Penn State, Omaha), 3-0 vs 151-200 (Hampton, CSU, Auburn) and 8-0 against the rest of the schedule.

Also 16-1 at home, 2-3 in neutral games, and 4-7 on the road.

It's a typical mid-seed type resume.
 
Hampton rolled over Savannah State, 89-55.

Raised RPI formula result from .5899 to .5901 That's .0001 behind TTU for 34th, which makes the CSU game tonight a big deal for us. They win, we move up.

Hampton is also up to RPI 164. Still an outside chance they could end up Top 150 on our resume, which wouldn't suck.
 
Highlander said:
Cville & Buffnik - you have done an awesome job on your updates all season. Could I beg for one last refresh going in to the weekend about which games I should care about as a layman/casual bball fan who just figured out this afternoon he isn't skiing this weekend?
begging.jpg
Click to expand...

I'll do some updates as well for tomorrow's games once the dust settles tonight.

These next 8 days are the best in sports
 
Akron won, which we didn't really want. But it would be hard for the committee to seed a 7-loss MAC team above us no matter their RPI.

The really good news right now is that Providence (RPI 36) just lost to Villanova, so they won't jump us.
 
Here's a weird one that I just noticed.

We actually care about the Texas State vs Texas-Arlington game in the Sunbelt tourney. If Arlington loses, they drop to RPI 105, moving UCLA back to RPI 100 and keeping the CU resume clean of any sub-100 losses. Texas State up very early, 21-16.

Go Bobcats! :D
 
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