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2012-13 Bubble Watch

InTheBuff said:
Buffs on the brink ?

Don't we all think CU's in as long as they win 2 out of the next 3 and then at least their first round Pac12 Tourney game ?
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I said prior to the Cal game, 3 of 4. So just need to win 2 of 3. I also said 2 and 2 with a P12 win should do it. I think if they beat Cal tonight it gives them more of a cushion. They should beat Oregon State. And if they beat Oregon that's a quality win.
 
cubuffs85 said:
I'm a Terps fan as well, I think they need to win both of these games and then win one in the ACC Tourney. UVa isn't definitely in IMO, although that win against Duke really helped.
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I think UVa is barely in at the moment, but they obviously can't slack off their final 3 games. Their record against the top 100 is impressive. Some bad early losses while banged up. Need to be very careful at BC tomorrow, they're feisty at home.
 
Out of all the teams projected in the 8/9 and 7/10 games, VCU scares me the most by far. Shaka Smart is great motivator.
 
Iowa State losing big at Oklahoma, about to go final. Cyclones drop to 19-10 (9-7). They need to win their last two in order to not sweat it out on Selection Sunday, IMO: Oklahoma State, @ West Virginia. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is pretty safe now at 19-9 (10-6), their computer numbers are impressive and their last two are: West Virginia, @ TCU. Nothing short of complete collapse with 3 bad losses (including Big XII tournament) is keeping OU out, IMO.
 
Tennessee goes down at Georgia. Crushing sub-100 loss for the Vols, who drop to 17-11 (9-7). Their bubble might have just burst. Any chance they have left involves winning their last two: @ Auburn, Missouri and then a deep run in the SEC Tournament.
 
Creighton beats Wichita State to win the MVC regular season championship. Creighton 24-7 (13-5) is safe. Wichita State 24-7 (12-6) is starting to sweat, however, and would be wise to avoid a bad early loss in the MVC Tournament.
 
sweaty teets said:
not bubble related, but penn st has scored 0 points in the first ten minutes today.
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Their win against Michigan after being winless in conference play is one of the more baffling wins in recent CBB history. Hell, their ability to even score more than 80 points in that game was shocking given their usual style of play.
 
So I finally realized the NBA doesn't exist for me anymore. I was flipping through the channels on my flight last night and ran across Memphis versus Miami. I literally spent a minute trying to figure out how they got a late season non conference matchup before I figured out it was the NBA.
 
Ole Miss loses at Mississippi State. That's a loss you don't ever recover from. Pop. Not a chance of an at-large now
 
tante said:
So I finally realized the NBA doesn't exist for me anymore. I was flipping through the channels on my flight last night and ran across Memphis versus Miami. I literally spent a minute trying to figure out how they got a late season non conference matchup before I figured out it was the NBA.
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That would've been a good matchup too
 
Junction said:
That's the same Miss St team that lost by 45 or something to one of Vandy's weaker teams, right? :wow:
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Yep, they've been losing games at home to weak teams by scores like 75-32. Not a chance in hell of Ole Miss getting an at-large now. Just be thankful we aren't really on the bubble (hopefully it stays that way) and that we took a top 50 road loss instead of a loss to #250
 
So with the loss to Kansas State, Baylor is now 17-12 (8-8) RPI 65th. They need to win their last two: @ Texas, Kansas to feel decent. Highly unlikely they pull that off.
 
Boise State is pulling away from Colorado State. Up 70-57 now. On a day when a lot of bubbles popped, Boise is quietly making a case for themselves. Assuming they hang on, they'll be 20-8 (8-6) with @ UNLV, San Diego State remaining. If they won both of those, they'd be in pretty decent shape. If they go 1-1, a strong MWC Tournament could still get them in.
 
First, let me reiterate that a top 50 road loss doesn't put the Buffs in any immediate danger. We split this road trip, which holds the line. Take care of business at home and we're almost certainly safe. Most importantly, avoid the RPI land mines (Oregon State and the First Round of the Pac-12 Tournament Utah/OSU/Wazzu) and we're in business.

Now, on to Sunday's bubble games:

Villanova at Pittsburgh: Villanova 18-11 (9-7) RPI 55. Nova got a big win over Marquette, only to turn around and get a bad loss at Seton Hall. As it stands, they're right on the line (Lunardi's next to last team in per his most recent update). Thus, they need at least 1 more win in the regular season. The problem is their remaining games are: @ Pittsburgh, Georgetown. Winning just one of those would be a boost, as it would add another solid win to Nova's resume (wins over Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette) but Seton Hall was an addition to the bad loss list that includes getting their doors blown off at home by Columbia. Even if Nova were to lose both, it wouldn't immensely damage their RPI, but they would then need a deep run in the Big East tournament. This is a team that's likely to linger right on the line until Selection Sunday, IMO. They certainly have their opportunities to make themselves safe, though.

Florida State at North Carolina: North Carolina 20-8 (10-5) RPI 21. Carolina is already safe, IMO. Their computer numbers are really solid. The one achilles heel (no pun intended) as it stands is that Carolina lacks any real elite wins (best wins are UNLV, NCSU, UVA). They've avoided bad losses for the most part (one bad loss to Texas), and a 20+ win Tar Heel squad simply won't be left out. Remaining games after this are: @ Maryland, Duke. Those last two will be tricky, but a win tomorrow over FSU essentially just ices it. They're in.

Virginia at Boston College: Virginia 20-8 (10-5) RPI 57. Virginia is fresh off that crucial win over Duke, yet there's still debate. Lunardi has them in, with room to spare (10 seed), yet Palm has them in his "Probably Out" category of the bubble. They're compiling a nice resume of solid wins: Duke, @ Wisconsin, NC State, North Carolina, @ Maryland. However, those bad early losses while they were banged up don't go away: Old Dominion, Delaware, @ Wake Forest, @ Georgia Tech, @ Clemson. The Hoos are 7-2 against the top 100, yet 13-6 for 101+. Truly one of the odder resumes you'll ever see. This is a tricky game for them at Boston College, a team that plays very tough at home (lost to Duke and Miami each by 1). Needless to say, Virginia's resume really cannot afford another sub-100 loss. Their remaining schedule after this is: @ Florida State, Maryland. My personal opinion is finishing 2-1 + an ACC Tournament win probably gets them in. 3-0 most certainly would. 1-2 would make it unlikely, with a deep ACC Tournament run necessary to have any chance.
 
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Lunardi's latest brief update (11pm EST Saturday night): http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebask...d/77929/bracket-update-wild-day-on-the-bubble

Last Four In: Iowa State, Temple, Villanova, Tennessee

First Four Out: Alabama, Baylor, Kentucky, Southern Miss

Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Maryland, Arizona State, Arkansas.

Top Seeds: Indiana (Midwest), Gonzaga (West), Kansas (East), Georgetown (South)

The bubble did indeed become a LOT softer today. But Tennessee in his bracket (albeit the last team in) after losing @ Georgia? Yet Kentucky falls out for losing @ Arkansas (who is much better than Georgia)? Just doesn't make sense. I recognize that Tennessee has beaten Florida and that Kentucky has not (they'll have their chance this week).

Then, there's Alabama. They lost at Florida, okay so not a bad loss. However, Lunardi moves Alabama from his 8th team out in his last update yesterday, to his first team out today? Moving up that much with a loss? Interesting.

Now, most insane of all, Lunardi has Ole Miss as his 5th team out. Ole Miss lost to Mississippi State. A team that had lost 13 straight games, many by scores like 72-31 (true story). A team with a sub-250 RPI. He drops them 5 spots? Are you kidding me? Ole Miss should be absolute toast. They are not even deserving of a mention.

Additionally, he has Arizona State still floating around in that "Next Four Out". Arizona State has 1 game left and their RPI is 94.

The true "bubble teams" for a 68 team NCAA Tournament are a disgrace. The fact any of the teams I just mentioned are still in the picture is about the biggest case you can ever make for taking this back to 64.
 
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Villanova falls at Pittsburgh in OT. Nova falls to 18-12 (9-8). One remaining game, Georgetown at home. They remain right on the line.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Lunardi's latest brief update (11pm EST Saturday night): http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebask...d/77929/bracket-update-wild-day-on-the-bubble

Last Four In: Iowa State, Temple, Villanova, Tennessee

First Four Out: Alabama, Baylor, Kentucky, Southern Miss

Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Maryland, Arizona State, Arkansas.

Top Seeds: Indiana (Midwest), Gonzaga (West), Kansas (East), Georgetown (South)

The bubble did indeed become a LOT softer today. But Tennessee in his bracket (albeit the last team in) after losing @ Georgia? Yet Kentucky falls out for losing @ Arkansas (who is much better than Georgia)? Just doesn't make sense. I recognize that Tennessee has beaten Florida and that Kentucky has not (they'll have their chance this week).

Then, there's Alabama. They lost at Florida, okay so not a bad loss. However, Lunardi moves Alabama from his 8th team out in his last update yesterday, to his first team out today? Moving up that much with a loss? Interesting.

Now, most insane of all, Lunardi has Ole Miss as his 5th team out. Ole Miss lost to Mississippi State. A team that had lost 13 straight games, many by scores like 72-31 (true story). A team with a sub-250 RPI. He drops them 5 spots? Are you kidding me? Ole Miss should be absolute toast. They are not even deserving of a mention.

Additionally, he has Arizona State still floating around in that "Next Four Out". Arizona State has 1 game left and their RPI is 94.

The true "bubble teams" for a 68 team NCAA Tournament are a disgrace. The fact any of the teams I just mentioned are still in the picture is about the biggest case you can ever make for taking this back to 64.
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That's why I was shaking my head when they were talking about expanding to 96 teams last year. If they were to ever expand to 96 we'd be talking about major-conference teams right around .500 being on the bubble. And that's .500 overall, not just in conference play
 
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