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2012-13 Bubble Watch

Santa Clara losing to fall out of the Top 100 really hurt the resumes of teams like BYU and Saint Mary's. Santa Clara was a good chunk of each team's "quality" wins.
 
Only sub .500 team I can remember that had a run like that is San Jose St. in the late 90's. Don't remember if the '03 CSU team was sub .500 or not.
 
ScotchBuff said:
Only sub .500 team I can remember that had a run like that is San Jose St. in the late 90's. Don't remember if the '03 CSU team was sub .500 or not.
Click to expand...

Georgia winning the SEC tourney when there was that tornado that postponed a game to give them a much-needed rest and moved the rest of the games to a small arena.
 
Buffnik said:
Santa Clara losing to fall out of the Top 100 really hurt the resumes of teams like BYU and Saint Mary's. Santa Clara was a good chunk of each team's "quality" wins.
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BYU has been toast for a while now, but yes this does hurt St. Mary's. As anyone who reads my posts on here knows, I'm a pretty big St. Mary's skeptic. Randy Bennett should not be able to get away with pasty scheduling OOC the way he did and make the Dance without beating Gonzaga at all. And that win over Creighton at home? Meh. Not exactly beating Duke.
 
Buffnik said:
Georgia winning the SEC tourney when there was that tornado that postponed a game to give them a much-needed rest and moved the rest of the games to a small arena.
Click to expand...

Western Kentucky had a remarkable run last year. Were 9-18 in late February, before winning their final two regular season games, then a 4 game/4 day run to win the Sun Belt title and get the auto-bid to NCAA Tournament. Were a 16 seed, won "Play-in game", but then lost to Kentucky by 15 in "Second Round" to finish 16-19 overall.
 
Kentucky beats Florida in Lexington. UK now 21-10 (11-6). Going in, Lunardi had them as his 6th team OUT and Palm as his last team IN. My opinion is there's no way Kentucky is being left out after this win. Only a disastrous first SEC Tournament loss could run the risk of keeping them out. Good chance they get shipped to Dayton for the "First Round" without a strong SEC Tournament, though.
 
Providence lost in OT at UConn. That bursts Providence's (brief) bubble. They needed to win at UConn today and go deep in the Big East Tournament. They're 17-13 (9-9) now with an RPI in the 80s. It just isn't happening. The wins aren't there.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Kentucky beats Florida in Lexington. UK now 21-10 (11-6). Going in, Lunardi had them as his 6th team OUT and Palm as his last team IN. My opinion is there's no way Kentucky is being left out after this win. Only a disastrous first SEC Tournament loss could run the risk of keeping them out. Good chance they get shipped to Dayton for the "First Round" without a strong SEC Tournament, though.
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Would make it the most intriguing first four game ever, especially given it's proximity to the fanbase.
 
Iowa State avoided an RPI land mine by winning at West Virgina. They were just in before this and their ticket is likely punched given the state of the bubble, although a bad Big XII tournament loss could make things dicey. This is likely enough though.

Ole Miss won at LSU. They were likely just right on the outside looking in before this. A win at LSU is no huge boost, but they took care of business and with a solid SEC Tournament they'll likely be in

La Salle lost at Saint Louis. Not a bad loss, and La Salle will remain "in" for now, but they need to avoid any bad loss in the A10 Tournament or they'll be sweating it out big time
 
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Denver is absolutely destroying LA Tech. Up 46-23 at the half. DU is going to win the WAC regular season title if they hold on.
 
Whoa. #1 Gonzaga barely hanging on against Loyola Marymount, 27-26, at the half. LMU's already won three in a row in the WCC tournament after going 1-15 in regular season play, with an RPI/BPI well over 200. This is what I love about March.

Game's on ESPN3 if anyone's interested.
 
hsu said:
Whoa. #1 Gonzaga barely hanging on against Loyola Marymount, 27-26, at the half. LMU's already won three in a row in the WCC tournament after going 1-15 in regular season play, with an RPI/BPI well over 200. This is what I love about March.

Game's on ESPN3 if anyone's interested.
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What exactly does Gonzaga have to do to ensure it's number one spot? The committee hasn't thought too much it seems in the past of mid-majors.
 
Latest from Lunardi, 8pm PST Sat:

LAST FOUR BYES
Iowa State
Colorado
Villanova
Temple

LAST FOUR IN
Kentucky
Boise State
La Salle
Tennessee
 
Gold said:
Latest from Lunardi, 8pm PST Sat:

LAST FOUR BYES
Iowa State
Colorado
Villanova
Temple

LAST FOUR IN
Kentucky
Boise State
La Salle
Tennessee
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Exactly where I thought they'd be. If we lose on Wed, were heading to Dayton pending some upsets either way. Bottom line, win on Wed and you probably avoid a trip to Dayton and will be in the Tourney.
 
yesterday's loss costs us about 10 in the rpi. in the 20's we are in for sure....30's is a diff game. teams have been left out in the 30's. both UO wins are not wins against rpi top 50 since they dog it at Utah. we lose 2 there.

work to do
 
Mick Ronson said:
yesterday's loss costs us about 10 in the rpi. in the 20's we are in for sure....30's is a diff game. teams have been left out in the 30's. both UO wins are not wins against rpi top 50 since they dog it at Utah. we lose 2 there.

work to do
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Actually, Top 40 RPI from a Power 6 conference and it's ridiculously unlikely that you get left out.

We just need to beat OSU to make sure we don't fall out of that Top 40. Then we'd be in bad shape and I don't think we could bitch too much if we got left out.
 
CVilleBuff said:
We're very likely in. Beat OSU and we def avoid First Four.
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cubuffs85 said:
Exactly my thoughts, just don't want to chance with some unlikely teams running the tables(like we did last year) in their respective conference tourneys.
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I agree with you guys, I think a win over OSU keeps us out of Dayton for the "first" round. A loss and we should still be in but that would just be cutting it too close especially with the way that you always get a few of these "bid-stealers" who win their conference tournaments.
 
If we lose to Oregon State again it will be reminiscent of CU football in 2005, which we still haven't exactly recovered from that Iowa State game.
 
As a fan as well, was definitely hoping for a win. Oh well. I wouldn't say Turgeon has fallen out of flavor here, but the honeymoon is definitely over. He had a tough act to follow after GW, but he knew that when he took the job. In fairness, GW didn't exactly leave the program in the best of shape.
 
cubuffs85 said:
As a fan as well, was definitely hoping for a win. Oh well. I wouldn't say Turgeon has fallen out of flavor here, but the honeymoon is definitely over. He had a tough act to follow after GW, but he knew that when he took the job. In fairness, GW didn't exactly leave the program in the best of shape.
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UVA needs to beat NCSU in the 4/5 game. If they get in without that, it's nothing other than ridiculous, absurd luck.

Maryland is pure toast (and, Maryland joining the B1G is a desperation move that is a mistake, IMO).
 
CVilleBuff said:
UVA needs to beat NCSU in the 4/5 game. If they get in without that, it's nothing other than ridiculous, absurd luck.

Maryland is pure toast (and, Maryland joining the B1G is a desperation move that is a mistake, IMO).
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Agreed on Maryland being out of it, barring an ACC Tourney championship of course.

In terms of the Big 10 move, I got mixed feelings on that one. It's not the same ACC it was prior to the first round of recent conference realignment. Once they lost the Duke home-and-home, it really didn't matter as much. More quality in terms of football matchups. They're not so great now, but they should probably get more people to the games. Every major state school has a significant alumni presence in the DC area, so I'd imagine unless they got better that Michigan, Ohio State, etc will be taking over the stadium, but it beats not having too many people there. In terms of basketball, they'll be competitive and I'm sure added interest at the beginning.
 
St Mary's related: they're not a very good team. My Toreros really really should've beat them in the semifinal, they totally blew it down the stretch. Our coach (former head assistant at Gonzaga) brutally overcoached, which I guess was the case all year. He out thought himself, St Mary's couldn't hit a jumper to save their life, but our coach decided to get out of the zone and match up, with no one who could actually guard Dellavadova. I hate playing zones, but this was a terrible plan. I don't see how St Mary's can beat Gonzaga to get the auto bid.
 
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