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2023 CFB Predictions/Gambling Thread

Bonus bets? Do you swing for the fences and try to turn $10 into $50+ or take a "sure thing" (ask Baylor about that :ROFLMAO: ) and bank the bonus?
 
ahoelsken said:
Take the sure thing. Why waste the free money?

I'm gonna grab Chiefs -5 and under 53 Thursday.
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I'm not at all on the Lions bandwagon, but if the Chiefs come in on Thursday without Kelce (on top of already being without the center of their defense), I'm taking Detroit to pull off the upset.
 
Surprised to see that Texas State is a 12.5 point underdog to UTSA this week after they soundly beat Baylor and UTSA had (I guess?) a respectable loss against Houston last week. ML is at +340.

Anyone have any insight on this one? Seems to be flying totally under the radar.
 
So what are the books missing, or what are we missing, about the cu line. The whiff on the first week makes sense since nobody had any idea. But the books saw that, are getting pounded on the cu side, and still just a slight favorite
 
jsmilkst said:
So what are the books missing, or what are we missing, about the cu line. The whiff on the first week makes sense since nobody had any idea. But the books saw that, are getting pounded on the cu side, and still just a slight favorite
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I really think they haven't corrected enough. We saw this in 2016, it took a while for the Buffs to be priced right. Made a lot of money off Bovada that season.
 
jsmilkst said:
So what are the books missing, or what are we missing, about the cu line. The whiff on the first week makes sense since nobody had any idea. But the books saw that, are getting pounded on the cu side, and still just a slight favorite
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The line is probably right based on any data they have. With all the attention and action on the Buffs plus such a large swing that took the game offline for a day, I guarantee this was one of the most researched lines of the week by oddsmakers. Fvck, I read somewhere that there might be more money Bey on CU-NU than on any NFL game this week.
 
Favorite games for this week? FanDuel has a bunch of parlay boosts available, so I’ll probably build some fun lottery ticket wagers. I’m liking the Buffs to cover, and Oregon, Mississippi, and Notre Dame on the money line.
 
Buffnik said:
The line is probably right based on any data they have. With all the attention and action on the Buffs plus such a large swing that took the game offline for a day, I guarantee this was one of the most researched lines of the week by oddsmakers. Fvck, I read somewhere that there might be more money Bey on CU-NU than on any NFL game this week.
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I read that it already is, and 3x more money on this game then any other cfb game currently
 
One of my TX buddies is a UT Law grad and very tapped into that program long term. Swears that taking Bama (spread or money line) is a complete no-brainer and that they will destroy UT.

A modest bet that I like and am making is the u48 for Eastern Michigan at Minnesota.
 
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Did something a little wild and put down a $5 pointsbet on CU -3.5. So win $5 per point when CU wins by more than 3, and loses $5 per point on the reverse. I'm bored with that site anyway. Was thinking $10, but they require someone to front 25x the bet amount and I didnt want to deposit.
 
Emmanuel Goldstein said:
Bonus bets? Do you swing for the fences and try to turn $10 into $50+ or take a "sure thing" (ask Baylor about that :ROFLMAO: ) and bank the bonus?
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Do you make long shot bets with real money? Bonus bets are actually more valuable when used on long odds bets. That's because the bonus bet money is NOT returned when you win, while with a real money bet the orginial ber amount is. The flip side is the bonus bet value is not lost, while the real money value would be.

Looking at expected value of a $10 bonus bet (I'm neglecting the vig because that varies between books and bet types):

win chance: 50%, odds +100, bet $10 to win $10, expected value: $5 (= $10 x 50%)

win chance: 66.7%, odds -200, bet $10 to win $5, expected value: $3.33 (=$5x 66%)

win chance: 33.3%, odds +200, bet $10 to win $20, expected value: $6.66 (=$20 x 33%)

won chance: 5%, odds +1900, bet $10 to win $200, expected value: $9.50 (=$190 x 5%)

I've thrown half of my free bets on futures (books often take higher than the regular 4.5% vig on futures though), and half on +!00 to +200 bets to keep my accounts from losing value.

I try not to make any future bets with real money, unless there's some kind of boost. But there are so many free bet offers, I just look around and harvetst free bets.
 
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I'm so pissed at myself. I had a big payout aligned if we'd won by between 13-18. I didn't believe enough. At the least, I should have covered my bets with equal bets up the victory margin ladder.
 
PAHIBuff said:
One of my TX buddies is a UT Law grad and very tapped into that program long term. Swears that taking Bama (spread or money line) is a complete no-brainer and that they will destroy UT.

A modest bet that I like and am making is the u48 for Eastern Michigan at Minnesota.
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Let’s all get together and agree that this friend can no longer be trusted.
 
I won my CU+8.5, CU-3, and CU-2.5 bets. Also won Incarnate Word-16.5 at Northern Colorado, and Eastern Mich at Minnesota u48.

Lost my Troy at Kansas State u48.5

I have an NFL bet tomorrow on Commanders -7 vs Cardinals.
 
RalphieMalph said:
Let’s all get together and agree that this friend can no longer be trusted.
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He grew up in AL and his parents moved to TX. Went to HS in TX - loves both programs, may have clouded his thinking - he’s also used to the Whorns cratering. Not a good game for him. He does finish in the black every betting season however.
 
I was down a bit today, but took Wazzu straight up and UA +9, so just turned the corner. Let it ride on a last second parlay on the late games because why not.
 
hawg1 said:
LSU -9

Anybody else using Pikkit? Integrated beats from all books you use. ROI, wins/losses, types of bets, different sports results. I like it.
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I've used Action for a while, but they've made the app harder to use and the synching has gotten worse. I'll have to check this out.
 
#1 pick said:
I wasn't gonna bet on this game but Norvell is a dumbass and Prime is extremely petty.
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I only had like $20 on CU to cover but then Norvell made that comment and I dropped another $150. Fully recognize that's not a lot but considering I was planning to take it real easy this weekend, it is for me lol
 
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