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A really sh*tty preview of the 2023 TCU game

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
Welcome to a new season of CU Buffs Football and our first installment of the Sh*tty Preview in 2023. Has it really been almost a year since I tried to suck it up and mail in a couple of these before it became impossible to manufacture any fun. But everything has changed and the Sh*tty Preview is ready to come back strong!
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The theme of this week, this season, the Prime Era is KARMA. Buff fans have been through hell for 20 years. Starting with the lead-up to the 2003 season which saw the recruiting scandal breaking, our best recruiters in EB and Embree getting in front of it to save their careers by leaving for UCLA jobs, leading to self-imposed restrictions placed on the program by the university (such as no overnight recruiting visits), Barnett hanging on for a few more years with his depleted roster and artificially lowered program potential, the changing of the guard to President Benson & Chancellor DiStephano focusing fundraising efforts everywhere but athletics & not caring about the program beyond wanting it to be scandal-free and within budget, the hiring of Dan Hawkins and his intramural culture, the disastrous hiring of throwback Jon Embree (Note: never hire NFL position coaches to be your head coach), the acceptance of a milquetoast mediocre program that doesn't want to try to recruit at an elite level with the hiring of Mike MacIntyre, the glimmer of hope when Rick George became AD with an emphasis on recruiting being the lifeblood of a program followed by the hiring of Mel Tucker only to see him leave for a monster-sized bag after 1 season, the miss on HC targets only to hire Karl Dorrell (Note: NEVER HIRE NFL POSITION COACHES TO BE YOUR HEAD COACH - especially if they were once fired in part for not meeting recruiting expectations when they were once a college HC), the national joke the Pac-12 became.

20 years of pain and suffering. 20 years of constantly being shat upon. 20 years of enduring.
Episode 7 Movie GIF by Star Wars


We have been freed! This fan base is now made of steel which has been forged and tempered in the depths of hell. All of that is now about to be rewarded with football nirvana.

That is how Karma works.

The Coach Prime Era has begun and CU will be returning to its rightful place as one of the top football programs in the nation.
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The glorious Colorado Buffaloes begin their stampede over the college football landscape on Saturday, September 2nd at TCU. From 1-11 to being featured as the Fox Sports Big Noon game with the network running constant promos during its NFL broadcasts to hype it to the next level. Our Buffs, driven by Coach Deion "Prime Time" Sanders are the headline of college sports. Some love us. Most hate us. Everyone is talking about us. If you think the noise is loud now, just wait until after this team is unleashed on Saturday. TCU sucks and we will crush them. The aftermath will turn the Buffs hype & hate meters up to 11.
Crank It Up GIF by Back to the Future Trilogy

We coming and the game has been changed.

This week, since so much has changed with the CU roster and staff, the Sh*tty Preview is going to diverge from its standard format. This one's going to be educational and scientific, exploring the CU football roster compared to last season and also do the same for TCU. It's something that's been in development for a while. That's why the Sh*tty Preview staff was expanded to include some statistical geniuses this offseason. The idea came from the realization that people take the ESPN prediction model seriously. They've got Tom Luginbill, the biggest idot in the industry, assigning numbers to each player recruited to determine how strong they will tell you the respective rosters are. They've got the FPI (Football Power Index) which hangs its hat on a set of data points which probably made some level of predictive sense prior to the changes to transfer rules but are now completely obsolete. They then present that garbage as viable data, give a percentage chance for each team to win, and spit out a score prediction. Most of the idots who follow sports assume it has credibility and that referencing those numbers makes them feel smart/ informed. So I figured I may as well follow that same logic and make the Sh*tty Preview more idot friendly.

With all that said, today I'm proud to debut the Sh*tty Power Index. The SPI is a highly scientific, mathematically driven model which takes last year's team, compares them to this year's team, applies a proprietary formula based on a six dimensional logarithmic algorithm to tell you exactly WTF is up* so you can make informed decisions.
(*Disclaimer: The SPI is for entertainment purposes only. The Sh*tty Preview, its affiliates, its employees and contractors are not responsible for any gambling losses or emotional hardship incurred from being such a dumb fvck that you used the SPI to make a decision.)

I hope you all appreciate the hard work and planning spent the entire offseason to develop the SPI. Every time I thought about it and worked on it literally added up to minutes of drudgery, but it had to be done and I just kept telling myself it was worth it and you assholes deserve at least a token effort. So that was motivating and pushed me through the process with a good attitude.
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Last year, the final score of the game was 38-13 TCU with the Frogs going into halftime with a 7-6 lead. That highpoint of the TCU season is the SPI baseline for comparison rather than the final game they played which everyone turned off some time around or before them being down 45-7. I'm not sure anyone knows what the final score ended up being. It's possible the refs simply ended it early under some NCAA sportsmanship rule or something and handed Georgia a trophy. Despite that, TCU superfans are so overconfident that they've done nothing but chirp all offseason about an easy win and the advantage of an early kickoff being that they have time to spend their evening at Mecca of the Fort Worth shopping, dining and entertainment scene.


Thus concludes PT1, since AllBuffs doesn't let us drop sh!t in excess of 15,000 characters.
 
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Pt 2

I thought about dropping this tomorrow, but it's ready now so I'll just let it go.

SPI Analysis

Coaching Changes
CU has hired Coach Prime (27-6 career record), who brought in an entirely new staff which includes the most dynamic offense around through OC Sean Lewis (who left an FBS HC position for this job) and DC Charles Kelley (former Florida State DC who left an Associate DC job at Alabama for this job). I think the guys they replaced are volunteering at high schools this year if they weren't able to call in a favor to be a position coach somewhere. The rest of the new coaching room is filled with guys who came from winning programs, former head coaches and coordinators, and top recruiters. SPI = +21 for CU

TCU lost OC Garrett Riley to a lateral move to Clemson. HC Sonny Dykes has a career record of 28-9 with Riley as his OC (SMU & TCU), a mediocre 66-56 without him. He was replaced by new OC Kendal Briles, previously at Arkansas as OC for 3 years with a 19-17 record and no winning conference seasons. Reports are that the TCU administration felt that the connection between the football team and female students had been lost when Gary Patterson left, so they wanted to bring in the system Briles helped develop at Baylor. SPI = -17 for TCU

Offensive Personnel Changes
Quarterback: CU replaces the lowest rated passer in FBS history (probably) with Shedeur Sanders, a former blue chip who passed for over 3,000 yards each of his 2 seasons at Jackson State. TCU replaces the ginger witch who came in off the bench to win last year's game with Chandler Morris, the guy who couldn't move the offense against us. A bit about Morris: undersized son of a sh*tty coach who is known for having good accuracy, unexpected mobility at times, a noodle arm, and a propensity for bad decision making when flustered. So basically Cody Hawkins. SPI = +23 for CU, -11 for TCU

That's a lot of text about football, so here's a quick break for some tennis:
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Running Back: CU replaces a RB by committee that lost its "star" from the year before to go be a 3rd stringer at a 5-7 Michigan State team. Leaders include former 4* Alton McCaskill who was the freshman RB of the year at Houston for scoring 18 touchdowns (16 rushing), Kavosiey Smoke who rushed for over 1500 yards on 5.4 ypc during his career at Kentucky, Sy'veon Wilkerson who was 1st Team All-SWAC last year, returns Anthony Hankerson who rushed for over 250 yards last season as a true frosh, and also adds blue chip frosh Dylan Edwards who was the fastest recruit in the nation and flipped to CU from Notre Dame. TCU, meanwhile, had its RB1 drafted in the 3rd round & its RB2 picked up as an UFA. They're counting on Trey Sanders, a former blue chip recruit for Alabama who didn't do anything there. SPI = +8 for CU, -9 for TCU

Wide Receiver & TE: CU didn't have a single WR go over 500 yards in 2022 and they're all gone. Highlighting the new players are Travis Hunter, former blue chip who is a preseason All-American as both an offensive and defensive star, Xavier Weaver and Jimmy Horn who had 718 & 551 yards receiving respectively for USF last year, a bunch more speed and blue chip pedigree with Dawson from Auburn and Ellis from Baylor, a huge target in Javon Antonio, and signed a highly regarded prep class led by 4* Omarion Miller. CU didn't get much from TE last year, didn't add much, and runs a WR heavy pass offense now, so that's a wash. Meanwhile, TCU had one of the best WR groups in the nation in 2022 with their top 3 WRs going to the NFL in the 1st, 4th and UFA. They also had several WRs transfer out, including a couple 4*s. Return their #4 WR Savion Williams (392 yards) and brought in a few transfers who might work out. Wiley's a good TE who returns for his senior year. SPI = +13 for CU, -16 for TCU.

Offensive Line: CU had some guys quit football and one quality transfer leave for Florida State. Returning starters at LT (Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan) and C (Van Wells) with new transfer starters at RT (Savion Washington) and both Gs (Landon Bebee, Jack Wilty or Jack Bailey, probably). Depth is almost entirely transfers, too. Probably not the strength of this team, but there's a lot of experience and high PFF grades within this group. More importantly, their scheme and coaching are settled and competent after dealing with a blocking sled salesman as the OL coach in 2020 & part of 2021 followed by an inexperienced replacement plus a new ineffective offense in 2022. Meanwhile, TCU has to replace a 1st Team AA OG (2nd round), a 1st Team All Big 12 C (UFA), and another OG starter. Return both OTs and they're good, but the interior of their OL went from a team strength to a huge question mark. SPI = +4 for CU, -6 for TCU.

For those of you not keeping track, SPI aggregate analysis of coaching & offense changes gives CU a +69 while TCU was a -59.

As a quick break from this deep analysis, before we turn to defense and special teams, I'd like to take a moment to get serious with a PSA and discuss binge drinking during football games. If you are going to Fort Worth for the game, make sure you plan accordingly to be responsible about your irresponsible behavior. Number one is to be certain you have arranged a ride so you won't be driving yourself to your post-game celebration spot and that you're able to get to your hotel or the airport safely that night. It's also gonna be a hot one, so mix in some Gatorade to stay hydrated (using the Shedeur Limited Edition GX Bottle, of course). Remember, too, that you need to wait to get back to Colorado to smoke weed and have abortions. And, most importantly, don't get banned from the stadium. First step in that is to have a foolproof plan for smuggling your booze in.
boob smuggler wtf GIF


Now that I've channeled some good karma with that call to civil responsibility, let's get back to the SPI forecast.

Defensive Personnel Changes

Defensive Line / EDGE: CU has the difficult task of replacing everyone from a unit which had probably the fewest sacks and TFLs in the nation in 2022. If there was a worse result somewhere, I hope their fans are getting the therapy they need. Buffs added a bunch of transfers who have shown that they play in the backfield and have the wheels to pursue sideline-to-sideline. It's a mix of former blue chips, productive players from top conferences & programs, and former blue chip recruits. Some of the notables to look for are Shane Cokes, Jordan Domineck, Bishop Thomas, Amari McNeill, Leonard Payne, Derrick McLendon, Sav'ell Smalls, Arden Walker, D'Vion Harris and Tajih Alston. Also, Taje McCoy is a freshman who has been turning heads on the Edge. TCU lost the guy who had led the team and then had 4 sacks against Michigan (RD4). Lost a couple transfers, gained a couple transfers. SPI = CU +29, TCU -9.

Linebackers: Another group where CU got very little production in 2022. Notably, the group does return Marvin Ham who was a 4* prospect in 2019 and became a starter during last season. Newcomers are headlined by Demouy Kennedy from Alabama (4* prep & 4* transfer), Vonta Bentley from Clemson (high 3*, big hitter), Juwan Mitchell from ASU, both UTs (may not be ready to play since only cleared last week, high volume tackler), and Jeremiah Brown from Jackson State (3* transfer, 7 sacks last year). On the other side, TCU lost its 2nd leading sacker (RD6) but return their top 2 LB tacklers, so they won't lose much of anything besides pass rush here. SPI = CU +24, TCU -3

We need another break from this. I apologize for this Sh*tty Preview. Figured people would need to dive into the roster a bit after all the changes, but this is way too dry and informative this week. Hopefully it hasn't been too awful. Let's take a quick moment to celebrate that we still have a few weeks left to enjoy summer weather:
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Secondary: Last season, CU had young corners a quality young safety who returns (Trevor Woods) and a revolving door at the other safety. Additions include cornerbacks in All-World Travis Hunter, Omarion Cooper from Florida State, and 5* recruit Cormani McClain. The new safeties include Shilo Sanders (South Carolina & Jackson State), Myles Slusher (Arkansas) and Travis Jay (Florida State). Also - don't be surprised if freshman Carter Stoutmire is the real deal. It's a deep and talented group which will often have 5 or 6 from the group on the field. TCU is going to be great up the middle, with all 4 from the 2-deep at safety returning from a good unit. At corner, they lost a Jim Thorpe Award guy to the NFL (Rd6) but do return an All Big 12 CB in Josh Newton. Other than that, it sounds like a bunch of JC & TNFR guys with no one standing out. SPI = CU +18, TCU +1

Special Teams: CU's got new kickers and punter. Return guys are electric. TCU probably won't suck at this since their punter is so old he used to jerk off to the Go Go's poster in his HS bedroom. SPI = special teams is irrelevant to SPI metrics.

Adding it all up, the final score prediction from the Sh*tty Power Index (which scientifically applies roughly 1 scoreboard adjustment for every 2 SPI point change) is...

Buffs 83
Frogs 3


P.S. If there are any TCU fans reading this I'd like to take this opportunity to say that we're looking forward to playing regularly in the new Big 12. You've never been part of a CU conference before and it will take some adjustment to get used to being dominated and demeaned by the Buffs on an annual basis. So I'm here to help you adjust. More positive karma for me. Just send me a DM and I'll use some of the windfall from betting on CU Saturday to hook you up with a "coping with being CU's bitch" care package. This will help you to acclimate to the feelings of helplessness you'll be experiencing and allow you to embrace your new reality.
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