You know you're pretty good when you have an off week, and still turn in the #13 performance.
http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2016/Oct16/DBOct26.html
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Advanced Stats and CU - 2016 Edition
- Thread starter Darth Snow
- Start date
You know you're pretty good when you have an off week, and still turn in the #13 performance.
http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2016/Oct16/DBOct26.html
should be able to do a bigger update on Monday.
I'm trying to figure out what that stat means - 23.6% of CU's defensive plays are against an opponent's 1st down, which is the 2nd lowest in the nation?
Took me a minute, too, but yes. A stat that is probably highly correlated to 3rd down %
Defeated is incorrect.
23.6% of plays against Colorado's defense went for first downs in the month of October. Which means, on average, it takes more than 3 downs to get a first down (yes, that's pedantic, but I think it explains how good this stat is. Teams are not getting easy first downs against us, and are more likely to go 3 and out then to get a first down on any particular drive.
That's good.
Michigan's #, btw, was INSANE.
Good work, pal. Take the rest of the day off!
No offense was meant, but let's try and keep your personal issues out of this thread, ok?
I'm sure. Go Buffs.
Thanks! I haven't looked at football advanced stats before, so the whole space is new for me.
That's really just an odd one put out by solid verbal. Not a "normal" advanced stat, which is why it's so confusing I think
Does your site have "Points Per Possession" (aka, "Points Per Drive")? That seems to be that stat that OCs and DCs are evaluated on these days since it takes uncontrollable factors like pace of play and style of play from the two teams out of the equation while automatically factoring in turnovers. Only thing it doesn't account for is the importance of average starting field position and non-offensive touchdowns as factors in winning. Mirrors the similar stat in basketball, which reigns supreme there as an advanced stat but needs to be bolstered with the stats on possessions per game vs opponent factors such as rebound, steal and turnover rates.
Does anyone have an actual Strength of Schedule ranking for the Buffs? I'm not talking about the SOS "ratings" that some sites put out, but strictly just based on opponents win %? I've tried searching but can't find anything on the major sites.
scoob
Well-Known Member
This is probably what you are looking for:
http://realtimerpi.com/college_football/ncaaf_power_rankings_Full.html
An easier way to explain is it is a ratio of first downs given up versus total plays on defense. For Stanford, we gave up 15 first downs on 62 defensive plays so that game alone had a 24.1% Defensive 1st Down Frequency.
It effectively removes unearned first down plays, the first downs after a fielded punt or kickoff or a turnover and only uses earned first downs. Basically like you said, CU doesn't give other teams a first down very often.
UCLA got 14 first downs on 49 snaps yesterday, so off our season average for sure. I would like to know how many we gave them off of penalties.
Five or so
89BUFF89
Well-Known Member
According to Box Score they had 59 offensive snaps.
| Total Offense | ||
|---|---|---|
| Yards | 210 | |
| Plays | 59 | |
| Avg. / Play | 3.6 | |
| Fumbles - Lost | 1-0 | |
| Penalties - Yds. | 13-96 |
Math is hard for me with a hangover!
A little spread sheet I put together. Food for thought...
This defense is so damn good.
BUFFSROCKS
Well-Known Member
Awesome analysis and spreadsheet that's good stuff. So 5 of the 9 teams we've played we have held them to their lowest scoring so far this year? JMFL dam.
Doing that against ucla despite 4 tos is incredible
Deleted member 807
Guest
Imagine how much better Michigan's percentage would be adjusting CU out of their results.
I enjoy watching our D more than our O. I have so much confidence in that squad! 25 yds rushing and holding them to 210 passing (most of that on a couple big plays/blown coverages). This defense is off the chain good....elite!
Since you're doing good work on this, do you have the time to pull together the same thing for yards (rather than score)?