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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

Agree that I don't think the Pac12 would be reaching out as a conference but certain schools reaching out would make sense. MHVER reported it was all Pac schools except Cal and Stanford which I don't buy because I don't think there would be any Big 12 interest in WSU or OSU either. Any or all of the other 6 is plausible though.
Dude, stop quoting MHVER, dude is an idiot. He only comes out with “info” right after a story comes out on ESPN, FOX, SI, etc.
 
I believe most of the PAC 12's issues today are a direct result of the decision made to go it alone with the PAC 12 Network a decade ago.

Larry Scott gave very nice projections for the PAC12 network showing a midpoint of his projection to be about $72 million per school over the life of the contract (12 Years). In reality it will be about $25 Million which is about 50% of what it cost to employ Larry Scott.

You will read a lot of spin on the the Bad Luck the PAC 12 ran into under Larry Scott but the PAC made their own bad luck. Without a media partner that was invested in the conference's viability the PAC12 network ran into many headwinds. They could not schedule games that would compete with the Fox or ESPN broadcast so many of the conference games languished in late evening time slots on the PAC12 network. With the limited reach of the PAC12 network and the late night games (really late on the east coast) viewership of the PAC12 teams was very limited. This showed up in recruiting and in lack of national brand recognition. One of the big reasons USC left was when Southern California 5* recruits were now ending in other conferences.

For a stark comparison - The ACC network (which as conference brand is comparable to the PAC12 ) which just started in partnership with ESPN has 42 million subscribers and a subscription fee of $0.73 per month per subscriber. Now the Pac-12 network which has been around much longer has 14 million subscribers with a fee of $0.13 per subscriber per month. It really helps to have a savvy media partner. A lot of opportunity cost have gone out the door.

I think the PAC12 Network is still an albatross during this round of media negotiations. It has become a RSN and we see how those are doing with Diamond missing their interest payments this week.
 
I believe most of the PAC 12's issues today are a direct result of the decision made to go it alone with the PAC 12 Network a decade ago.

Larry Scott gave very nice projections for the PAC12 network showing a midpoint of his projection to be about $72 million per school over the life of the contract (12 Years). In reality it will be about $25 Million which is about 50% of what it cost to employ Larry Scott.

You will read a lot of spin on the the Bad Luck the PAC 12 ran into under Larry Scott but the PAC made their own bad luck. Without a media partner that was invested in the conference's viability the PAC12 network ran into many headwinds. They could not schedule games that would compete with the Fox or ESPN broadcast so many of the conference games languished in late evening time slots on the PAC12 network. With the limited reach of the PAC12 network and the late night games (really late on the east coast) viewership of the PAC12 teams was very limited. This showed up in recruiting and in lack of national brand recognition. One of the big reasons USC left was when Southern California 5* recruits were now ending in other conferences.

For a stark comparison - The ACC network (which as conference brand is comparable to the PAC12 ) which just started in partnership with ESPN has 42 million subscribers and a subscription fee of $0.73 per month per subscriber. Now the Pac-12 network which has been around much longer has 14 million subscribers with a fee of $0.13 per subscriber per month. It really helps to have a savvy media partner. A lot of opportunity cost have gone out the door.

I think the PAC12 Network is still an albatross during this round of media negotiations. It has become a RSN and we see how those are doing with Diamond missing their interest payments this week.

But the Pac12 was smarter than everyone else by keeping 100% ownership of their own network
 
Dude, stop quoting MHVER, dude is an idiot. He only comes out with “info” right after a story comes out on ESPN, FOX, SI, etc.
Didn't he out scoop Wilner on Ucla and Usc? Next test is he March 7 B12 meeting. Is it for real ? Wilner silent on that one. Let's see what happens.
 
I am playing devil’s advocate on this, so keep that in mind as I respond to your questions.

Does he have any evidence to show that these relationships and research partnerships would NOT have happened if not for the jump to the P12? In other words, is the P12 relationship the driving factor or is it that the vast majority of R1/AAU accredited universities that are in the Western part of the US are in the P12?

Does he account for any non-obvious confounding variables, such as a change in the priority from university leadership towards research funding?


The short answer is no, there is not significant evidence to support causation. It‘s a podcast, not a peer reviewed academic paper.

The longer answer is that both CU and Utah had a major bump in research funding after joining the pac 12. Perhaps both just had a leadership push toward that goal, although I think it would be safe to say that all leadership of major universities are making the same push. He also shows, somewhat tangentially, that other schools that moved into the Big 12 did not have the same bounce. And existing Big 12 schools had no bump at all. In fact CU and Utah’s bump was in many cases almost equal to the entire R&D for many of the Big 12 schools. So, it did not appear to be a “rising tide lifts all boats” scenario. It appeared that CU and Utah got a bump unlike others. And joining the PAC 12 was one common denominator. I have no idea if his figures are correct, and there absolutely could be other factors in play.

I found his arguments to be generally logical. He was essentially trying to answer the question, would any PAC 12 school go to the Big 12? Based on research funding, alumni reach, the rotten Big 12 grant of rights, the academic prestige, and the actual dollars involved, he made a credible argument that no school would leave over $5 million per year because everything else is a downgrade.
I recognize that you are playing devils advocate, but I’d point out there’s one more common denominator that seems a lot more relevant to me: UU and CU are AAU R1 universities; outside of KU and UT, the Big12 is not.

A much more likely explanation to me, for example, is that there has been a concentration of research grant dollars at AAU universities over the last decade. That would explain why CU and UU saw massive bumps but WVU and TCU did not. However, I don’t have any data that would definitively prove that.

This is just one of a number of examples that would explain the evidence besides PAC12 affiliation resulting in an increase in research funding
 
Talking about SMU and SDSU joining the P12. I think the Buffs leave within 2 years. With CP at the helm, CU is a much hotter property. Extend him into a 10 year
'no-bail' contract, CU that much more desirable.
Anyone remember when SMU got the NCAA "death-penalty"?

 
Talking about SMU and SDSU joining the P12. I think the Buffs leave within 2 years. With CP at the helm, CU is a much hotter property. Extend him into a 10 year
'no-bail' contract, CU that much more desirable.
Anyone remember when SMU got the NCAA "death-penalty"?

A 10 year, “no bail” contract?
 
Thamel put out an article on ESPN+ about realignment. Nothing new, but given he works for the network, it doesn't sound like ESPN is all that interested... Really starting to feel like it is Amazon or the Big12 for CU.

 
Talking about SMU and SDSU joining the P12. I think the Buffs leave within 2 years. With CP at the helm, CU is a much hotter property. Extend him into a 10 year
'no-bail' contract, CU that much more desirable.
Anyone remember when SMU got the NCAA "death-penalty"?

Your view of college football is wild
 
Thamel put out an article on ESPN+ about realignment. Nothing new, but given he works for the network, it doesn't sound like ESPN is all that interested... Really starting to feel like it is Amazon or the Big12 for CU.


 
Pay close attention to Thamel.
He's close to God in this situation if you know what I mean.
Mindy Kaling Crying GIF
 

Bellcow's?
GMAFB
Oregon and Washington are physically located in ****ty places. Super far away from the rest of the world.
Are they nice brands, yes
Would Oregon exist at all without Nike money, no
Either way, the PAC is dead if the attitude is that Oregon and Washington are the saviors because they do not want to stay unless it remains financially viable and the CFP is easy to attain.
 
Thamel is close to ESPN and is aware of the PAC's issues to get the $ GK promised. To me he seems to know things are unraveling.


This was his article a month before USC and UCLA announced they were leaving.
 
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if Stanford and cal go independent (for now), and oregon state and wsu get screwed (welcome to the MWC) and the remaining 6 are forced into the big 12, i am not sure if i am pissed off or happy.

i mean doesn’t it kinda put Stanford and cal a little further up the list then to go to the big? they would be unaffiliated and not subject to a GoR…

if the pac can hold together we have an easier path to the playoffs than if we end up in some expanded big 12 that only takes the 6 pac teams that aren’t wsu, osu and Stanford and cal.

in my dream scenario, which won’t happen, pac explodes and big decides that we are on the list of schools it would take.

larry scott ****ed us well and truly. and, usc of course. Like i could even hate them more than i already did.

what a ****ing spectacle of incompetence.
 
CU isn't even close to going BIG10.
They have two choices.
Stay in a heavily bandaged PAC for most likely 5 years or move to the Big12 where they will be on solid but not preferred standing.
 
Not sure how to feel about a writer, for a company in the midst of contract negotiations, putting out a story about how poor the future outlook is for the other party in the negotiations.
seems to me you're taking it with an appropriate grain of salt. I suspect you have better context than most people reading that story.
 
everyone hating on USC, but if Colorado had been in their position, I don't think I'd want the admin to play it any different than USC and UCLA did (specifically oppose expansion to not lock into a long term GoR while trying to plan our Pac 12 exit)
 
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