CU MBB Rankings/NET/KenPom/Bracketology Catch-All

[Buffnik]

The NET likes road wins, even over bad teams?

Somewhat. Beating a bad team doesn't penalize like RPI used to weight too heavily. Similarly you won't see a big resume improvement any more for losing to a top team like RPI overvalued. Additionally, which is why St John's win ended up helping more than we might have expected, is that they blew out DePaul. Margin of victory matters on NET. That's benefiting CU since most of our wins have been by comfortable margins while our losses other than Zona have been pretty close games.

 

[Buffsbball]

There's also an efficiency component there -- the NET incentivizes beating the piss out of your opponent, regardless of quality. The Johnnie's won by 27, and broke 100 in doing so, on the road.

It's a flawed metric, just as the RPI was, but it's what we got.

Which in theory we should benefit from if we can win against a not great beaver team in Corvallis regardless of Oregon

 

[Buffnik]

Tonight has a good chance of breaking well for us. Lots of games where the result we want seems to be the more likely outcome. They're close, though.

 

[Buffnik]

31 NET
32 KenPom

 

[GRM]

31 NET
32 KenPom

Buffs have got to get it done tonight, and see if/how much we jump up, then close out with Ore St. Winning on the road is so crucial with NET. Last night's games largely did not go our way, but Northwestern and Miss St. lost, so will be on bubble. Palm put Grambling in his bracket--I did not know they already won the regular season conference title--hopefully they win out and maybe become a Q3. Richmond won again moving to 65, if they beat Davidson in their tourney they could get into Top-50, for a Q1.

It is nerve-racking but a bit fun to be on the bubble, as we pay more attention.

 

[Buffnik]

Buffs have got to get it done tonight, and see if/how much we jump up, then close out with Ore St. Winning on the road is so crucial with NET. Last night's games largely did not go our way, but Northwestern and Miss St. lost, so will be on bubble. Palm put Grambling in his bracket--I did not know they already won the regular season conference title--hopefully they win out and maybe become a Q3. Richmond won again moving to 65, if they beat Davidson in their tourney they could get into Top-50, for a Q1.

It is nerve-racking but a bit fun to be on the bubble, as we pay more attention.

With a win tonight, I think we could move into the 26-28 range on NET.

The only thing that's keeping us uncertain is our lack of Q1 wins, so hopefully things break so we finish with more than 1 of those. If that number climbs to 2-4, CU becomes an absolute lock for a bye on the 6-10 seed line.

 

[Buffnik]

Got a road win and it was a Quad 1 - helping the 2 major deficiencies on our resume.

Non-con opponents were helpful, too. Pepperdine, Utah Tech, Milwaukee and Grambling all won. Only Iona lost.

I expect we'll like our NET tomorrow and any of the bracketology updates.

 

[tante]

Did we just get a road win against a quad 1 team and drop from 31 to 32 in kenpom?

 

[Buffnik]

Did we just get a road win against a quad 1 team and drop from 31 to 32 in kenpom?

We entered at #32.

Our score went up from +17.60 to +17.81 with a couple of our non-con wins getting victories tonight but not in the math yet. Could be we jump TCU tonight since we're only 0.05 behind them.

 

[Bubblebuff]

Washington over Wazou was equally as big of a win for us. Now we’re basically locked in to have two Quad 1 road wins! Solid measures all around! Win 3 more and we might be an 8 or 9. Win 4 and the pac12 title and we’re a Uconn-esque 7 seed poised to make a run, with KJ being the next kemba walker.

 

[Alfred91]

Washington over Wazou was equally as big of a win for us. Now we’re basically locked in to have two Quad 1 road wins! Solid measures all around! Win 3 more and we might be an 8 or 9. Win 4 and the pac12 title and we’re a Uconn-esque 7 seed poised to make a run, with KJ being the next kemba walker.

@Darth Snow

 

[Buffnik]

Thru March 7th games:

#29 NET
#32 KenPom

 

[Denver_sc]

Now #29 in NET but still #32 on KenPom.

SOR improved to #44 (had been ~#50).

I don't think the committee pays attention to BPI, but also improved there to #47.

Looks like Bracket Matrix culled the number of brackets that they are reporting down to 90 (had been around 110). I can't imagine too many have updated this morning yet, but Buffs still in fewer than 1/3rd (29).

 

[RumblinBuff]

Now #29 in NET but still #32 on KenPom.

SOR improved to #44 (had been ~#50).

I don't think the committee pays attention to BPI, but also improved there to #47.

Looks like Bracket Matrix culled the number of brackets that they are reporting down to 90 (had been around 110). I can't imagine too many have updated this morning yet, but Buffs still in fewer than 1/3rd (29).

BPI and SOR are both used by the selection committee.

NET, KenPom, KPI, BPI, and SOR are all the highlighted metrics in use this season

 

[Robert Sorell]

Now #29 in NET but still #32 on KenPom.

SOR improved to #44 (had been ~#50).

I don't think the committee pays attention to BPI, but also improved there to #47.

Looks like Bracket Matrix culled the number of brackets that they are reporting down to 90 (had been around 110). I can't imagine too many have updated this morning yet, but Buffs still in fewer than 1/3rd (29).

Matrix hasn't updated yet today, all of the listed brackets are 3/7 or earlier.

 

[CitizenKane]

Matrix hasn't updated yet today, all of the listed brackets are 3/7 or earlier.

Lenardi updated this morning and still has the Buffs out and below Utah, which tells me he doesn't account for last night's games at all

 

[RumblinBuff]

Lenardi updated this morning and still has the Buffs out and below Utah, which tells me he doesn't account for last night's games at all

I refer to my previous statement on the matter:

 

[Denver_sc]

Matrix hasn't updated yet today, all of the listed brackets are 3/7 or earlier.

I did find a few brackets that have updated this morning, and boy are they infuriating:

Sports Illustrated

CBS

USA Today

All of them have Mississippi State seeded with a bye, Virginia higher seeded than CU, SI and USA Today have Seton Hall with a bye, and Villanova higher seeded than CU. SI doesn't even have CU in the first four. Here's a blind resume comparison:

Spoiler: KEY:

A: CU, B: Villanova, C: Miss St, D: Virginia, and E: Seton Hall

 

[torero]

Lenardi updated this morning and still has the Buffs out and below Utah, which tells me he doesn't account for last night's games at all

If only there were some measure of who performed better against a group of common opponents, like a division or some other grouping, to see which team is more tournament worthy, instead of which team beat St Mary’s in November to compare teams.

 

[Robert Sorell]

We entered at #32.

Our score went up from +17.60 to +17.81 with a couple of our non-con wins getting victories tonight but not in the math yet. Could be we jump TCU tonight since we're only 0.05 behind them.

Where do you get the NET values?

 

[Buffnik]

Where do you get the NET values?

Good question. I don't know. All I can find is the rank, not the score. RPI sucked, but was much more transparent on this.

 

[jumped ship]

at the end of the day, what impacts who the committee selects most are Quad 1 wins. last night was huge but we need 1 more for me to not be anxious on selection Sunday

everything else is just analysis paralysis

 

[Denver_sc]

Where do you get the NET values?

To clarify, he was talking about KenPom in that post, not NET

 

[Preston Slaughter]

I am shocked how little credit we are getting for that win last night. Seemingly the only thing that impacts us is if other bubble teams lose.

 

[DBT]

You guys are getting me worried. I went into last night’s game thinking a win would put us on track for the tournament. Guess I was wrong. Almost seems like we need three more wins.

 

[HudsonBuff]

I don’t see how Saint John’s gets in ahead of us.

 

[Preston Slaughter]

I thought we'd be a ten seed now and pretty comfortably in if we win the next two and lose to Wazzou. Now I'm thinking that we'd still be sweating it out in that scenario.

 

[Darth Snow]

Something weird happening this year. This team should be in at this point but teams with weaker resumes are consistently ahead of us.

 

[Buffnik]

I don’t see how Saint John’s gets in ahead of us.

I get the arguments for Villanova and St. John's out of the Big East. But I have no idea how Seton Hall and Providence could be considered comparable to CU. No one should be able to make that case with a straight face.

 

[torero]

I'm more baffled by the love the Big 10 is getting. Purdue is slightly ahead of Arizona, and Illinois is ahead of Wazzu, but I can't comprehend how that translates to 6 Big 10 bids and 3 at most for the Pac. Do people think wins over a really ****ty Michigan team matter?