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Official 2014 Bubble Watch Thread

Xavier beats Marquette by 3. Should be safe now, although one more win would certainly help them rest easier.
 
Friday:

Florida State 19-12 (9-9) vs #6 Virginia 25-6 (16-2): FSU beat Maryland, but that's probably not enough. Lunardi has FSU as the 2nd team out, Palm doesn't have FSU in the first four out. RPI is 52. A win over an opponent the caliber of Virginia would likely vault the Seminoles into the field. If they lose, they're not getting in.

Missouri 22-10 (9-9) vs #1 Florida 29-2 (18-0): Missouri is coming off a 2OT win over 146 Texas A&M. Lunardi has Missouri as the 6th team out. Palm has them as the last team in. RPI is 49. I've got to agree with Lunardi on where Missouri sits. They cannot possibly be in the field at the moment. A win over Florida would put Missouri in, but Missouri has been getting destroyed by any team with a pulse lately (and some without pulses, too). Actually incredible they're still even in the picture.

Nebraska 19-11 (11-7) vs #24 Ohio State: Lunardi has Nebraska holding one of the final byes (6 spots from the cut-line), Palm has Nebraska a 10 seed. RPI is 41. Nebraska should still remain in, even with a loss. A win would lock it up.

St. Joseph's 21-9 (11-5) vs Dayton 23-9 (10-6): Lunardi has both St. Joes and Dayton in his last four in. Palm has St. Joes a 9 and Dayton an 11. Odd. St. Joes RPI is 43, Dayton's 39. It's going to be a nerve wracking couple days for whoever loses this game. Both need this win to rest easy, although I suspect the loser probably still gets in.

Tennessee 20-11 (11-7) vs South Carolina 14-19 (5-13): Lunardi has Tennessee holding the final bye, Palm has Tennessee as the 2nd to last team in. RPI is 44. South Carolina popped Arkansas' bubble on Thursday in an upset win. This is Tennessee's first SEC tournament game and South Carolina's third so fatigue may play a role. Tennessee cannot lose this game. If they win, they're in pretty good shape given how the bubble is collapsing around them. However, they'd be wise to win a couple games and bow out to Florida or Kentucky in order to feel safe.

Minnesota 20-12 (8-10) vs #12 Wisconsin 25-6 (12-6): Lunardi has Minnesota as the 1st team out, Palm has Minnesota the 2nd team out. RPI is 47. Minnesota needs a quality win in the worst way right now. They'll get a bid if they can upset Wisconsin. If they lose, their fate is anyone's guess but they're probably out.

Providence 21-11 (10-8) vs Seton Hall 17-16 (6-12): Providence is Lunardi's last team in, Palm's 3rd to last. RPI 51. Providence outlasted St. John's and popped St. John's bubble in the process. Strangely enough, Seton Hall's upset of Villanova is not necessarily good for Providence. Seton Hall's RPI is 126, and so Providence now runs the risk of taking a bad loss that would be very damaging, while a win won't vault them forward much, if at all. Providence remains the biggest mystery of all.

Xavier 21-11 (10-8) vs #14 Creighton 25-6 (14-4): Lunardi has Xavier holding one of the final byes (7 spots from the cut-line). Palm has them an 11 seed as well. RPI 46. Xavier's win over Marquette on Thursday should be enough. A loss to Creighton won't do any damage. A win would lock it up. At this point Xavier not getting in would be surprising.
 
CVilleBuff said:
there will be some head scratchers, there always is
Click to expand...
That's why I edited to relatively. Last year IIRC was pretty free of controversy. You'll probably get them more with the seeds this year, but that's not as bad and more subjective to begin with.
 
Hope Missouri doesn't hear their name called Sunday either....F*** them for all those years of Big XII misery and the nasty shots they took at us when we were leaving
 
cubuffs85 said:
That's why I edited to relatively. Last year IIRC was pretty free of controversy. You'll probably get them more with the seeds this year, but that's not as bad and more subjective to begin with.
Click to expand...

Seeding is going to be a complete crapshoot, for sure. And we'll probably have a couple odd bubble selections, it does get a little murky differentiating between the last couple teams in and first couple out.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Seeding is going to be a complete crapshoot, for sure. And we'll probably have a couple odd bubble selections, it does get a little murky differentiating between the last couple teams in and first couple out.
Click to expand...
Whenever anyone suggests in cfb, something like "no deserving teams should be left out" for a playoff -- no matter what number they pick, you will have controversy. Whether it's 2, 4, 8, 10, 16. If #69 thinks they were wronged, you bet as hell #17 in a hypothetical expanded playoff is going to raise hell.
 
cubuffs85 said:
Whenever anyone suggests in cfb, something like "no deserving teams should be left out" for a playoff -- no matter what number they pick, you will have controversy. Whether it's 2, 4, 8, 10, 16. If #69 thinks they were wronged, you bet as hell #17 in a hypothetical expanded playoff is going to raise hell.
Click to expand...

True. But it's better to have those controversies in football around who gets the 15th and 16th spots than over who gets the 3rd and 4th. The farther removed from #1, the less risk that you're leaving out a potential champion.

In basketball, for example, it would really such for some worthy teams if we only had 48 in the tourney and were only picking around a dozen at-large bids.
 
Buffnik said:
True. But it's better to have those controversies in football around who gets the 15th and 16th spots than over who gets the 3rd and 4th. The farther removed from #1, the less risk that you're leaving out a potential champion.

In basketball, for example, it would really such for some worthy teams if we only had 48 in the tourney and were only picking around a dozen at-large bids.
Click to expand...
That would be too many games and I know the lower levels do an expanded playoff, they also have few regular season games and no conference championship games.

I get what you're saying though. I like for college football how much the regular season matters. I think you got the opposite issue in cbb.

68 teams is too many but it's a great Tournament, I say just leave it as is. If there were 48 teams making it, you'd almost surely have to take away automatic bids or force conferences to merge.
 
Goose said:
**** you Ohio State.
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Unless this ends up helping our seeding. I wouldn't cry about a Rd1 game against OSU. They didn't challenge themselves in the non-con and didn't do much in the B1G. They're really down this year. Matta's a good coach, though. That would worry me.
 
Buffnik said:
Unless this ends up helping our seeding. I wouldn't cry about a Rd1 game against OSU. They didn't challenge themselves in the non-con and didn't do much in the B1G. They're really down this year. Matta's a good coach, though. That would worry me.
Click to expand...

see, this is the worst case scenario. It leads to Nebraskans being happy, the B1G bragging about how deep they are, and OSU not dropping enough to face us.

**** the B1G*.

* - I really should just add that to my signature.
 
It's the natural progression, right? CU had a rivalry with Nebraska. CU left the Big 12 for the Pac-12. NU left the Big 12 for the B1G. Pac and B1G are traditional rivals.

Now we get to hate an entire conference. **** those guys! **** their networks carriage contracts! **** their misplaced arrogance! **** their bowl game embarrassments elevating the SEC! **** their constant Dance ****-ups in the Finals! **** THE B1G AND **** THE HUSKERS!!!!!

I think this works. I think there's a place for my hate.
 
Don't look now, but the luckeyes have cut the fuskers lead to 2 with under 2 to play.

This is like watching that epic battle between Freddie and Jason. I don't want either to win.
 
****ers will probably sneak in, but man, they really don't deserve it.
 
St. Joe's beat Dayton.

Flyers may be out. It's tough for the committee to take 6 teams from the A-10. That's pushing it. A-10 wasn't good enough to justify that.
 
Buffnik said:
St. Joe's beat Dayton.

Flyers may be out. It's tough for the committee to take 6 teams from the A-10. That's pushing it. A-10 wasn't good enough to justify that.
Click to expand...

Have to wonder if it hurts them with the play in games being in Dayton. Will the committee avoid them to avoid giving them an advantage?
 
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