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Official Allbuffs CFB gambling thread
- Thread starter ahoelsken
- Start date
Where are the futures on bovada?
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Click on basketball and go to college. The futures are all they have right now
I’m never money-line betting a team coached by Ed Oaf against Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa.
I like the Beavers bet. I’m on the other side on the other two.
Too many close calls for Gophers, played too many back-up QBs for my liking. Not sure how good they are.
I think Bama DBs clog up LSU WRs knocking Burrows off his quick release throws. And I think Bama can run on LSU.
Good luck.
Minnesota is a fun story, but they have been living a lie. They literally haven't played anyone all year that has a winning record.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
I wouldn't have done that but I think their O is legit and I'm not sure Tua is going to be healthy.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Penn State's going to win, but I don't think they're going to blow Minnesota out. Minny isn't a playoff contender, but I think they're a pretty good football team
Tua will be fine. I have concerns that either team scores much. ATS is your better bet.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
For the record-I fully expect Tua to be healthy enough to play. I don't expect a fully healthy QB. Klatt said the average recovery time for that procedure is 3 weeks with Stink and Evans today, and Saturday will be right about three.
Yep. A lot of times, these type games turn out to be opposite of what's expected. I've heard shoot out from quite a few, in regards to this one. Wouldn't be shocked at all if it wasn't.
He actually said that 3 weeks was the absolutely bare minimum recovery time. I think Tua struggles, but it won’t matter. @hawg1 is right, Bama can run the ball against LSU’s front 7, and Bama’s defense is made to stop offenses like this. Man under, jam guys at the line and make Burrows read the field. I like the under in this game.
I have significant under action. Line moving our way!
I’m on under. Small wager on Bama -6.5
We ended up with a serious amount on Under 65.5 and 65 before the books made bigger line moves. I will be praying for the slug fest.
This doesn’t address the central premise that ATS is still the better bet than LSU ML. Of course Tua will not be 100%. He just had surgery a few weeks back. However, he will be good enough to manage the offense. They have a ton of really good players, the better defense, and better coaches.
To me, a ML wager only makes sense when your handicapping gives you a probability that’s in line with the team’s likelihood to win. I don’t think LSU beats Alabama 36.36% of the time in Tuscaloosa with Ed O at the helm. I do think they cover 6.5/7 more than 52.38% of the time. That’s why I see ATS as the better choice for the money.
I bet prices first, teams second.
Those are very specific probabilities. Out of curiosity, how did you calculate that?
Odds Calculator | Online Sports Betting Tools - SportsbookReview.com
Converts betting odds between many different formats - US, decimal, fractional, percentage, Hong Kong, Indonesian, and Malay formats. Betting tools from SBR.
www.sportsbookreview.com
Thank you.Odds Calculator | Online Sports Betting Tools - SportsbookReview.com
Converts betting odds between many different formats - US, decimal, fractional, percentage, Hong Kong, Indonesian, and Malay formats. Betting tools from SBR.
I only like ML in 2.5 - 4 range, especially if it’s a bad number (2.5 or 3.0) and it won’t budge to a better number.
i like your analysis.
Montgomery paper had good article on tightrope procedure and Tua prognosis.
As I mentioned, we have a serious wager on Under 65.5/65 in the LSU - Alabama game. That will decide the entire weekend.
Added (for now)...
KState +7
ASU +3
Wisconsin - Iowa Under 38
Duke +7.5
Illinois +14.5
Will look for a few other moves near close.
Good call on Beavs vs UDub.
I like these, plus ECU +21 and NCSt +34