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Official Allbuffs CFB gambling thread

Stanford Steve likes Beavs. Three reasons: spot, lagging Stanford O, Beavs being able to score on likes of Okie St.

Plus as a former Stanford player, he says Reaser is hard.

Good luck.
 
First off, what is great about this thread is that without tallying the numbers, it seems as though 50% of the bets people like win and 50% lose. If I had to *bet* I would actually say that more that 50% of the bets posted have lost.

Jon Wilner posted some data about PAC 12 teams playing Friday night road games. Friday Pac12 Home teams are 13-2 since the start of the 2016 season (excluding rivalry games since a flight is usually not involved). Road teams are 5-10 ATS in those matchups. I liked Cal in the Friday night game this week even without those stats but my conviction has gone up. I’m taking Cal -4.5.

Jayden Daniels is a very talented QB but watching the game against Michigan State made me realize that his biggest weapon is his running ability. He is not yet a good passer. I’ve never been so sure of his desire to run than that last series against CU when they were down by 3 and needed to get into FG range. It was 3rd or 4th down and I kept yelling at my TV... he’s going to try and run it. Thankfully our D coordinator was smart enough to put a spy on the play which I think was Landman which shut it down. Cal wins by 10+ IMO
 
CaliBuff901 said:
First off, what is great about this thread is that without tallying the numbers, it seems as though 50% of the bets people like win and 50% lose. If I had to *bet* I would actually say that more that 50% of the bets posted have lost.

Jon Wilner posted some data about PAC 12 teams playing Friday night road games. Friday Pac12 Home teams are 13-2 since the start of the 2016 season (excluding rivalry games since a flight is usually not involved). Road teams are 5-10 ATS in those matchups. I liked Cal in the Friday night game this week even without those stats but my conviction has gone up. I’m taking Cal -4.5.

Jayden Daniels is a very talented QB but watching the game against Michigan State made me realize that his biggest weapon is his running ability. He is not yet a good passer. I’ve never been so sure of his desire to run than that last series against CU when they were down by 3 and needed to get into FG range. It was 3rd or 4th down and I kept yelling at my TV... he’s going to try and run it. Thankfully our D coordinator was smart enough to put a spy on the play which I think was Landman which shut it down. Cal wins by 10+ IMO
Click to expand...

You’d probably need to break down by poster. Plus, if you win over 55% with proper bankrolll management, you can win at betting sports. 60% the the holy grail for the sharpest of sharps.
 
CaliBuff901 said:
First off, what is great about this thread is that without tallying the numbers, it seems as though 50% of the bets people like win and 50% lose. If I had to *bet* I would actually say that more that 50% of the bets posted have lost.
Click to expand...

Honestly I'm on house money for 2019 after my US Open win with that fine Canadian/Romanian.

Here's my 12 team parlay for $11K on DraftKings:

Giants -3

Packers -4

Vikings +2.5

Texans -4.5

ASU +5

OSU -17.5

Temple -9.5

TEN/ATL U 45.5

Purdue +15.

KC -6

CLE/BAL O 45.5

K State-OSU O 60.5

And a partridge in a pear tree.
 
crosby87 said:
Honestly I'm on house money for 2019 after my US Open win with that fine Canadian/Romanian.

Here's my 12 team parlay for $11K on DraftKings:

Giants -3

Packers -4

Vikings +2.5

Texans -4.5

ASU +5

OSU -17.5

Temple -9.5

TEN/ATL U 45.5

Purdue +15.

KC -6

CLE/BAL O 45.5

K State-OSU O 60.5

And a partridge in a pear tree.
Click to expand...
Bianca bet was best I’ve seen on this thread so far. Well done.

I cashed Orioles under, Marlins under, Cardinals over, Nationals over season win totals this week. I’m not on house money, but did help soften a subpar CFB season so far.
 
That's a good job. Didn't the Marlins come out of the gate fast too and make you a little nervous? Also, Mattingly re ups? I guess there's no pressure for him. He is a terrible manager BTW.
 
crosby87 said:
That's a good job. Didn't the Marlins come out of the gate fast too and make you a little nervous? Also, Mattingly re ups? I guess there's no pressure for him. He is a terrible manager BTW.
Click to expand...

Thanks.

Season prop baseball sweats are horrible. Long time line. Many ups and downs, schedule watching, weathering streaks, etc. Marlins start caused indigestion early for sure.

Tim Kirkjian was on Behind the Bets before season started. He’s pretty good on these big picture team issues. I took his advice 4/4.

Now football.

Bama -37
OSU vs Stanford under 58

I find CFB bets increasingly sharp this year. Models and power rankings are getting populated with real data, likely making lines even sharper going forward.
 
CaliBuff901 said:
First off, what is great about this thread is that without tallying the numbers, it seems as though 50% of the bets people like win and 50% lose. If I had to *bet* I would actually say that more that 50% of the bets posted have lost.
Click to expand...

To get the real story you'd need to get what everyone is betting too. I'm at a hair over 50% on my year so far but up 80% because I put a big bet on the CSU game. Have a big bets outstanding on over CU +4 wins and UCLA -5.5 wins.
 
hawg1 said:
Thanks.

Season prop baseball sweats are horrible. Long time line. Many ups and downs, schedule watching, weathering streaks, etc. Marlins start caused indigestion early for sure.

Tim Kirkjian was on Behind the Bets before season started. He’s pretty good on these big picture team issues. I took his advice 4/4.

Now football.

Bama -37
OSU vs Stanford under 58

I find CFB bets increasingly sharp this year. Models and power rankings are getting populated with real data, likely making lines even sharper going forward.
Click to expand...

Agreed. The first couple weeks I thought there were some games to exploit. The last two weeks there hasn't been many games I've liked.
 
There are just too many dud teams. I mean seriously, what is the most exciting game this week? ND/UVA? Ugh.
 
hawg1 said:
Bianca bet was best I’ve seen on this thread so far. Well done.

I cashed Orioles under, Marlins under, Cardinals over, Nationals over season win totals this week. I’m not on house money, but did help soften a subpar CFB season so far.
Click to expand...

What’s the total you got for the O’s? Most of the numbers I saw were in 49-51 range, which have all gone over.
 
manhattanbuf said:
Navy +13.5 for a dime
Click to expand...

The service academies are so hard to get a handle on week to week. Nice bet.

Memphis could be undefeated going into their last game vs Cincy, just looking at their schedule.

My $20 parlay is already toast as the Eagles showed up. A-Rodg can enjoy Danica and her 12 year old boy body today to drown his sorrows.
 
crosby87 said:
The service academies are so hard to get a handle on week to week. Nice bet.

Memphis could be undefeated going into their last game vs Cincy, just looking at their schedule.

My $20 parlay is already toast as the Eagles showed up. A-Rodg can enjoy Danica and her 12 year old boy body today to drown his sorrows.
Click to expand...

Thanks. I feel good because I got great CLV, which mattered for this cover.
 
Finebaum asked the other day if Trevor Lawrence still plays CFB. They should just let him play 1 series per game to get him ready for NFL preseasons.
 
Don’t have a dog in the fight, but the over in the Penn State - Maryland game is a bad beat. One team has 52 with a 61.5 closing total and the under is still a big favorite.

Edit: Penn State with 59. Opening number goes over. Nearly all others go under. Whoa
 
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