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Official RPI Watch 2014-15

CVilleBuff said:
UCLA falls at Alabama 56-50. Bruins 8-5 with no decent OOC wins.
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Shocker of the year. I'd imagine Alford could have his seat get warm pretty quickly. Unless they do something special they'll also be left out of the tourney.


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EscapeFromNMBuff said:
Shocker of the year. I'd imagine Alford could have his seat get warm pretty quickly. Unless they do something special they'll also be left out of the tourney.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

They're in a similar predicament to CU. Nothing to speak of in regards to quality wins. UCLA's RPI is even worse than ours (UCLA 116, CU 96).
 
Daaah said:
How is the Pac 12 so bad?
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More talent leaving the Conference, then what has entered it. Plus situations like UCLA and to a much lesser degree Colorado, where a collection of young talent hasn't come together like expected.
 
Cal falls 55-52 to CSU-Bakersfield, who came in 2-10 and an RPI of 345.

With Washington and Cal's disastrous losses and UCLA continuing to be ****, it's time to question whether this is a 2-3 bid league, not 4-5.
 
Monday:

Lipscomb (5-7) @ Chattanooga (7-6): This would be a nice road win for Lipscomb if they can get it. Wouldn't count on it on the road. Lipscomb's RPI is currently 279...

San Francisco (7-6) @ Saint Mary's (8-3): USF got off to a nice start in WCC play with a win @ Pacific. Winning at St. Mary's would be a big RPI boost for USF (RPI 200). St. Mary's has an RPI of 89. USF is a definite underdog here but this St. Mary's team isn't as good as some of recent years. USF are 6 point underdogs.

Auburn (6-5) vs Middle Tennessee State (7-5): Auburn has been playing better lately. 3 wins in a row including a very nice win over Xavier. They should beat MTSU but it may not be easy. Auburn is favored by 7.5 but this one strikes me as a dangerous game for AU. We badly need Auburn to keep pushing towards top 100.

Stanford (7-3) vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff (3-10): Stanford is fresh off a potential season saving win @ Texas. A-PB is probably going to end up as one of those wins that hurts your RPI even with a win. Stanford should crush these guys, but should take note of Cal and Washington's disastrous losses...

Oregon (9-3) vs UC-Irvine (6-5): Oregon is fresh off an OT win over UCSB, who was preseason #2 in the Big West. UC-Irvine was preseason #1. UC-Irvine hasn't been living up to expectations but this is still a semi-dangerous game for the Ducks. Oregon is favored by 9.

Hawaii (10-4) vs Southern (3-10): Our loss to UH is just a killer. Despite having wins over CU, Nebraska and Pittsburgh, Hawaii's RPI is only 132. UH should roll Southern, but unfortunately Hawaii typically sucks whenever they visit the mainland so their future outlook for a large RPI rise seems limited once conference play forces them on to the road often.

As the final OOC games are played, the Pac is in horrible shape. Here are the current Pac RPI's:

11. Arizona
14. Utah
35. Washington
42. Stanford
95. Colorado
106. USC
115. UCLA
118. Cal
119. Oregon
146. Arizona St
171. Oregon St
225. Washington St

Hard to build a resume when this is what you're dealing with. RPI clearly isn't settled yet, but top 50 win opportunities are going to be at a premium. Washington's stock is starting to fall and Stanford being able to hold top 50 is a complete mystery (they're on a high right now after beating Texas).
 
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As we end non-conference play, Pac-12 is 6th in RPI.

1. Big 12 -- .6024 avg RPI
2. Big East -- .5773
3. SEC -- .5676
4. ACC -- .5670
5. B1G -- .5652
6. Pac-12 -- .5595
7. A10 -- .5517
8. WCC -- .5220
9. AAC -- .5184
10. MWC -- .5172

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html
 
Everything has gone as it should tonight except Oregon is down 33-26 at half to UC-Irvine. Knew this was a dangerous game for the Ducks, UC-Irvine is no slouch despite having played well below their potential so far this season.
 
Oregon headed to OT against a Big West squad in Eugene for the second game in a row.

Edit: Oregon tops UC-Irvine in OT 69-67.

Spots 4 through 8 are completely up for grabs in the Pac. It's going to be absolute chaos. And that's not even considering the possibility of Washington joining the murkiness of the middle (surely that has to at least be an option worth asking after their loss to Stony Brook even if it seems unlikely?). Stanford will Stanford and be in the upper-middle cluster**** with flashes of greatness and atrociousness canceling each other out.
 
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Tuesday:

George Washington (9-3) vs VMI (5-7): GW is sitting pretty with an RPI of 17 after winning the Diamond Head Classic. They've now got the quality OOC wins needed for their Dance resume and should challenge VCU for the A10 title. VMI is actually a really entertaining squad to watch because of their style of play (2nd in NCAA ppg at 87.7) but GW should win comfortably.

Oregon State (8-3) vs UC-Santa Barbara (5-6): Don't like this match up for OSU. UCSB is fresh off an OT loss at Oregon. They've also beaten Wazzu by 28, lost to CSU by 2, SMU in OT and played Kansas tough at Phog. These guys are much better than their record shows. Beavs are 1 point underdogs. If they pull this off it would actually be a very nice win for OSU and their 167 RPI. UCSB could well be a Cinderella come March.

USC (7-4) vs Vermont (5-6): USC's RPI is 101. I have no idea how or why, but I'll take it. We desperately need all opportunities for top 100 wins. USC is fresh off a nice road win @ Boston College, but lost to Army before that. Story of USC's season: do something horrific and then follow it up with a surprise decent win. Trojans simply have to win this one at home. They're only favored by 5 which doesn't say much for perception of USC/Pac considering UVM is a mid-tier America East team. Stony Brook who's in the same conference just came west and won @ Washington, so...

#10 Utah vs Carroll: NAIA opponent. No RPI effect.
 
One surprise tonight:

Oregon State defeated UCSB 76-64. Nice win for the Beavs. May not sound impressive, but OSU was the underdog and when you look at UCSB's results it's clear. Dare I say Oregon State may pluck off some teams in Corvallis this year who shouldn't lose there?
 
Wednesday: CU RPI is 91st. One piece of good news: USC has entered the top 100 at 96th, which now places 6 Pac teams top 100 and UCLA, Cal and Oregon sitting just outside. It ain't pretty, but those 3 should enter the top 100 as conference play gets underway as many mid and low majors with ridiculously inflated RPI's will drop due to weak conference schedules.

Georgia (7-3) @ Kansas State (7-5): Chance for the Dawgs to get a decent OOC road win. Georgia's RPI is sitting pretty at 23 and this would be a nice boost. KSU has had some perplexing losses this year but they've also played Arizona very tough (lost by 4) beaten Purdue, lost at Tennessee by 1, etc. They're not awful. This is a game Georgia could really use a win in for their resume because the SEC will only offer so many chances for quality wins. KSU favored by 4.

DePaul (6-7) vs Marquette (8-4): DePaul is miserable and now begins Big East play. DePaul has now lost 6 in a row. Marquette has been inconsistent this year but it's hard to see how they could lose to DePaul. Marquette is only favored by 5 which is surprising.

Air Force (7-4) @ San Diego State (10-3): Air Force gets underway with MWC play. Guess it's good to get the toughest game out of the way first. This one is probably going to get ugly.

#24 Colorado State (13-0) vs Boise State (10-3): CSU escaped Las Cruces with the narrowest of wins to remain undefeated. Now they start MWC play. Boise State has been a bit of a disappointment thus far blowing a couple winnable games. However, they were picked to finish 2nd in the MWC preseason and presumably remain somewhat dangerous. CSU is favored by 8 here, but if the undefeated record is starting to put pressure on them, Boise could steal a win in Moby. CSU RPI is excellent at 19.

Wyoming (11-2) vs UNLV (9-3): Wyoming is paying for their weak OOC with an RPI of 139. Who knows what to make of UNLV. UNLV has defeated Arizona yet lost to Arizona State by 22, Stanford by 29, beat Morehead St, Sam Houston St and Portland by a *combined* 5 points. Laramie is a tough place to play. UNLV showed their potential against Arizona, but they've been far more bad than good this season. Until they show Arizona wasn't a fluke, I won't like their chances in a difficult MWC road game. Wyo is favored by 6. They need this win.
 
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Georgia wins @ K-State 50-46. Nice road win for the Dawgs. 7-0 run to finish game and get the win. KState basically did what we would have done. Georgia's RPI is now up to 18th with the win.
 
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AFA loses by 4 at SDSU.... and...

DePaul beat Marquette. There's no figuring those guys out.
 
Buffnik said:
AFA loses by 4 at SDSU.... and...

DePaul beat Marquette. There's no figuring those guys out.
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DePaul is just unreal. How do you beat Marquette after what they looked like in Hawaii. DePaul's win vaulted them forward 40 spots. Unfortunately they landed on 235.
 
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