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Official RPI Watch 2014-15

Sunday:

Oregon (12-5, 2-2) @ Washington (12-4, 1-3): Pretty key swing game for these two, especially Washington who has the difficult mountain road swing up next. Washington finally got a Pac win last time out against Oregon State, while Oregon fell at Wazzu. Washington's RPI is up to 59th while Oregon is down to 101st. Have to give Washington the edge since it's in Seattle. Huskies are favored by 4.

DePaul (9-9, 3-2) vs St. John's (12-4, 1-3): DePaul has lost their last two but remains playing at a far higher level than they were for most of their OOC. Big East is just a tough conference…the fact this decent SJU team is only 1-3 is testament to that. DePaul's RPI is only 181st due to the damage they did to themselves OOC. St. John's is favored by 5.5 in this one, hopefully DePaul can pull off another surprise W.
 
Georgia got an important SEC win over a pretty tough Ole Miss side. Unfortunately unless we start helping ourselves immediately none of this will mean squat
 
Been a really busy couple days for me, but CU's RPI is 79th heading into Wednesday.

On Wednesday, we've got:

Washington State (9-8, 3-2) @ #12 Utah (14-3, 4-1)

Auburn (10-7, 2-2) vs Mississippi State (8-9, 1-3)

Drexel (4-13, 2-4) @ Hofstra (13-6, 4-2)

Buffs losing to horrible ASU was a killer. Still, the RPI is in a place where we can make the NIT if we ever start playing like we should. Washington is a ****ing huge game. Huskies are solid but definitely not unbeatable in Boulder even without XJ. We'll see how much fight this team has in them on Thursday. There are still numerous winnable Pac12 games remaining if we pull our heads out of our asses, but it has to happen now (no wiggle room, we're too late as it is). If we can hold home court this week, we'd be back with a winning Pac record and an RPI in reasonable shape. Washington's RPI is 53rd. It's a huge opportunity to get a decent win and move ourselves into the 60s.
 
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Didn't know the RPI had anything to do with the NIT?

NCAA has owned the NIT since 2005. There's a flowdown with similar selection criteria. 32 teams. Auto-bids to regular season conference champs that didn't make NCAA. At-large selection based on resume, with RPI a major factor in the room. Ever since the NIT hasn't been an independent organization, the selection of teams based on who could make them the most money for tv eyeballs and hosting tickets hasn't been as important as the politics of fairness.
 
Thursday:

Our Buffs (9-8, 2-3) host Washington (13-4, 2-3): Buffs have lost 3 in a row, including a devastating loss to a bad ASU team last time out. XJ is suspended for this one, hopefully Jelly is back and contributes. This is where we start to find out if the Buffs can salvage something from this season or if the bottom falls out. Washington is a decent side, but by no means unbeatable in Boulder. Buffs desperately need a W. CU's RPI is 80th, Washington's 54th. Buffs are favored by 1.5.

#7 Arizona (16-2, 4-1) @ Stanford (13-4, 4-1): Looking forward to this one. Arizona is fresh off a big win over Utah in Tucson, but now comes a difficult road test. Stanford is quietly putting together a very solid season and could give Arizona all sorts of trouble in Maples. However, this is the type of game Arizona tends to show up in although they have been uncharacteristically shaky on the road this season. Arizona's RPI is 7th, Stanford's 24th. Arizona is favored by 4.

UCLA (11-7, 3-2) @ Oregon State (12-5, 3-2): Key game for these two. UCLA has regrouped to win 3 straight and put themselves in position to make a run at the postseason. Oregon State has shown they're dangerous at home by beating Arizona and is coming off a crucial road win at Wazzu. No one expected the Beavs to be in the thick of the Pac standings 5 games in. UCLA's RPI is 64th, Oregon State's 84th. Winner of this will have a hell of a lot of momentum. Oregon State is actually favored by 1.5.

USC (9-8, 1-4) @ Oregon (12-6, 2-3): USC looks well on their way to an 11 or 12 seed in the Pac tournament unless they pick it up. Meanwhile, Oregon has already faced ASU and OSU at home and Wazzu away. Now comes another Pac weakling in USC. The fact their Pac record is so mediocre despite a favorable early schedule does not bode well for the Ducks down the stretch. Oregon's RPI is 93rd, USC's 137th. Ducks are favored by 9.5.

ASU (9-9, 1-4) Cal (11-7, 1-4): Battle of two basement dwellers here. ASU was supposed to be this bad, while Cal has completely regressed as Pac12 started. Bears have lost 4 in a row and 6/7. ASU finally got their first conference win by narrowly beating CU in Tempe despite the Buffs missing both Josh Scott and Xavier Johnson. Cal's RPI is 120th, ASU's 133rd. I like Cal since this one is in Berkeley, but man these are two bad teams. Cal is only a 1 point favorite.

DePaul (10-9, 4-2) @ #24 Seton Hall (13-4, 3-2): 6 games into Big East play and DePaul is sitting tied for second a mere half game out of first place. No one saw that coming. DePaul's RPI remains low at 158th due to their disastrous OOC, but it is rising quickly. This is a tough test on the road though…a win in this one would be remarkable. Seton Hall is favored by 10.5.

George Washington (14-4, 4-1) @ Fordham (5-11, 0-5): GW remains in the thick of the A10 race. In my opinion, they're the #3 team in that conference behind VCU and Dayton. GW's RPI is 44th -- they're going to need to avoid any disastrous losses (like Fordham would be) down the stretch. Colonials are favored by 7.

Northern Colorado (9-7, 4-1) @ Eastern Washington (13-5, 4-1): UNC is off to an excellent start in Big Sky play. Their RPI is 220th, though. UNC is in position to get a nice seed in the Big Sky tournament if they keep this up. Avoiding this team - Eastern Washington - until as late as possible will be key. I don't give UNC much of a shot on the road against EWU, but if they somehow pull it off it will be a huge win that would vault them way forward (EWU's RPI is 58th). EWU is favored by 9.

San Francisco (8-11, 2-5) vs Pepperdine (12-6, 5-2): Dons are a mess, having lost 5/6. They should not be this bad, but I suspect Rex Walters has lost the locker room. USF has the players to hang with (and beat) everyone except Gonzaga and BYU in the WCC, so hopefully they can get a W here at home against Pepperdine after a long 3 game road swing. USF's RPI is 193rd. They're surprisingly favored by 2 in this one.

Hawaii (13-6, 1-2) vs UC-Davis (14-3, 4-0): Hawaii is off to a pretty poor start in Big West play. They dropped a game on the Islands they shouldn't have and as usual they struggle mightily on the mainland. UC-Davis is playing the best basketball in the Big West this season, so this is a big opportunity for Hawaii to get a big conference win and boost that RPI from the ugly 199th it currently is. Hopefully Hawaii has some home magic. Rainbow Warriors are favored by 2.5.

Lipscomb (9-9, 3-0) vs Jacksonville (7-13, 1-2): Lipscomb is off to a nice start in conference play, sitting tied for first in the Atlantic Sun. The RPI is slowly rising -- now up to 245th. This is a win they should get at home.
 
Thursday:

Our Buffs (9-8, 2-3) host Washington (13-4, 2-3): Buffs have lost 3 in a row, including a devastating loss to a bad ASU team last time out. XJ is suspended for this one, hopefully Jelly is back and contributes. This is where we start to find out if the Buffs can salvage something from this season or if the bottom falls out. Washington is a decent side, but by no means unbeatable in Boulder. Buffs desperately need a W. CU's RPI is 80th, Washington's 54th. Buffs are favored by 1.5.

#7 Arizona (16-2, 4-1) @ Stanford (13-4, 4-1): Looking forward to this one. Arizona is fresh off a big win over Utah in Tucson, but now comes a difficult road test. Stanford is quietly putting together a very solid season and could give Arizona all sorts of trouble in Maples. However, this is the type of game Arizona tends to show up in although they have been uncharacteristically shaky on the road this season. Arizona's RPI is 7th, Stanford's 24th. Arizona is favored by 4.

UCLA (11-7, 3-2) @ Oregon State (12-5, 3-2): Key game for these two. UCLA has regrouped to win 3 straight and put themselves in position to make a run at the postseason. Oregon State has shown they're dangerous at home by beating Arizona and is coming off a crucial road win at Wazzu. No one expected the Beavs to be in the thick of the Pac standings 5 games in. UCLA's RPI is 64th, Oregon State's 84th. Winner of this will have a hell of a lot of momentum. Oregon State is actually favored by 1.5.

USC (9-8, 1-4) @ Oregon (12-6, 2-3): USC looks well on their way to an 11 or 12 seed in the Pac tournament unless they pick it up. Meanwhile, Oregon has already faced ASU and OSU at home and Wazzu away. Now comes another Pac weakling in USC. The fact their Pac record is so mediocre despite a favorable early schedule does not bode well for the Ducks down the stretch. Oregon's RPI is 93rd, USC's 137th. Ducks are favored by 9.5.

ASU (9-9, 1-4) Cal (11-7, 1-4): Battle of two basement dwellers here. ASU was supposed to be this bad, while Cal has completely regressed as Pac12 started. Bears have lost 4 in a row and 6/7. ASU finally got their first conference win by narrowly beating CU in Tempe despite the Buffs missing both Josh Scott and Xavier Johnson. Cal's RPI is 120th, ASU's 133rd. I like Cal since this one is in Berkeley, but man these are two bad teams. Cal is only a 1 point favorite.

DePaul (10-9, 4-2) @ #24 Seton Hall (13-4, 3-2): 6 games into Big East play and DePaul is sitting tied for second a mere half game out of first place. No one saw that coming. DePaul's RPI remains low at 158th due to their disastrous OOC, but it is rising quickly. This is a tough test on the road though…a win in this one would be remarkable. Seton Hall is favored by 10.5.

George Washington (14-4, 4-1) @ Fordham (5-11, 0-5): GW remains in the thick of the A10 race. In my opinion, they're the #3 team in that conference behind VCU and Dayton. GW's RPI is 44th -- they're going to need to avoid any disastrous losses (like Fordham would be) down the stretch. Colonials are favored by 7.

Northern Colorado (9-7, 4-1) @ Eastern Washington (13-5, 4-1): UNC is off to an excellent start in Big Sky play. Their RPI is 220th, though. UNC is in position to get a nice seed in the Big Sky tournament if they keep this up. Avoiding this team - Eastern Washington - until as late as possible will be key. I don't give UNC much of a shot on the road against EWU, but if they somehow pull it off it will be a huge win that would vault them way forward (EWU's RPI is 58th). EWU is favored by 9.

San Francisco (8-11, 2-5) vs Pepperdine (12-6, 5-2): Dons are a mess, having lost 5/6. They should not be this bad, but I suspect Rex Walters has lost the locker room. USF has the players to hang with (and beat) everyone except Gonzaga and BYU in the WCC, so hopefully they can get a W here at home against Pepperdine after a long 3 game road swing. USF's RPI is 193rd. They're surprisingly favored by 2 in this one.

Hawaii (13-6, 1-2) vs UC-Davis (14-3, 4-0): Hawaii is off to a pretty poor start in Big West play. They dropped a game on the Islands they shouldn't have and as usual they struggle mightily on the mainland. UC-Davis is playing the best basketball in the Big West this season, so this is a big opportunity for Hawaii to get a big conference win and boost that RPI from the ugly 199th it currently is. Hopefully Hawaii has some home magic. Rainbow Warriors are favored by 2.5.

Lipscomb (9-9, 3-0) vs Jacksonville (7-13, 1-2): Lipscomb is off to a nice start in conference play, sitting tied for first in the Atlantic Sun. The RPI is slowly rising -- now up to 245th. This is a win they should get at home.
 
DePaul wins @ #24 Seton Hall, 64-60. Just an absolutely incredible in-season turnaround by DePaul. Blue Demons now 5-2 in the Big East....meaning they are tied for 1st.
 
CU RPI went from 94 to 88 with the win over Wazzu. It's a start…at least it's going in the right direction for the first time in a couple weeks.
 
Buffs are in 7th now (tiebreaker over both UCLA and Wazzu for now).

Arizona and Utah are obviously top 2. Stanford is doing what it takes to get a top 4 seed.

Oregon State is playing way better than expected at 5-2, but do they really remain in the top 4 when 18 games are done?

Cal is a complete disaster.
 
Losing those games against ASU and UDub are going to be nut pinchers come March and seeding for the PAC tourney.
 
Losing those games against ASU and UDub are going to be nut pinchers come March and seeding for the PAC tourney.

Yup. While the final bye is certainly completely up for grabs (I'm handing Stanford the 3rd bye. They aren't spectacular but they're not doing the stupid **** nearly everyone else is) you get the feeling blowing both of those crucial swing games would come back to haunt CU if we managed to finish strong and push for 4th. UW will have the tiebreaker if we don't win in Seattle. That's a killer as UW looks to be in the thick of getting the final bye. Only real way to get into it is either figure out how to win a few road games (not 1 or 2) and/or clamp down and stop losing at the Keg.
 
CSU laying it on SDSU in Moby. Huge MWC game. Eustachy is such a good coach

Amazing job with 9 new guys. The Avila kid has this knack of throwing off balance shots at the rim and they bounce around and fall in. I watched some of the game and he had a few of those.
 
Yup. While the final bye is certainly completely up for grabs (I'm handing Stanford the 3rd bye. They aren't spectacular but they're not doing the stupid **** nearly everyone else is) you get the feeling blowing both of those crucial swing games would come back to haunt CU if we managed to finish strong and push for 4th. UW will have the tiebreaker if we don't win in Seattle. That's a killer as UW looks to be in the thick of getting the final bye. Only real way to get into it is either figure out how to win a few road games (not 1 or 2) and/or clamp down and stop losing at the Keg.
Right now I'm guessing:

#1 & 2 Arizona/Utah- I think Zona is the better team, but Utah's PAC schedule is more favorable. Only play Ford & OSU once.

#3 & 4 Stanford/OSU- OSU is the surprise, given mediocre ooc results, but they haven't lost at home this year and beat Arizona already. They also get Utah at home later. Stanford has a good ooc with wins over UCONN and Texas already.

#5/6/7/8 Washington/UCLA/Colorado/Oregon- Tough call here. I lean towards that order.

#9/10 ASU/Wazzu- solidly...

#11/12 Cal/USC- also a given. Thought Cal was decent b/c of good ooc but I guess not.

Comes down to those 50/50 games. Losing to Wash was tough.
 
Right now I'm guessing:

#1 & 2 Arizona/Utah- I think Zona is the better team, but Utah's PAC schedule is more favorable. Only play Ford & OSU once.

#3 & 4 Stanford/OSU- OSU is the surprise, given mediocre ooc results, but they haven't lost at home this year and beat Arizona already. They also get Utah at home later. Stanford has a good ooc with wins over UCONN and Texas already.

#5/6/7/8 Washington/UCLA/Colorado/Oregon- Tough call here. I lean towards that order.

#9/10 ASU/Wazzu- solidly...

#11/12 Cal/USC- also a given. Thought Cal was decent b/c of good ooc but I guess not.

Comes down to those 50/50 games. Losing to Wash was tough.

We're pretty much in agreement. My one question is whether Oregon State can truly hold on to 4th for 18 games. Might be ridiculous since they've already proven they can beat Arizona, but it's a long haul schedule and I just wonder if they might not blow a couple "should wins" and enter the UW/UCLA/CU/Oregon chaos. Beavs go to the Desert this week, they'll need a win in Tempe to keep on track for a bye.

Pretty remarkable how Cal has regressed. There were signs in the OOC that their record was probably better than they were (they eeked out numerous games) but to be losing to ASU in Berkeley by 35? What the hell?

Anyway, we really really need to get a win @ USC. Can't do squat if you can't win any road games.
 
We're pretty much in agreement. My one question is whether Oregon State can truly hold on to 4th for 18 games. Might be ridiculous since they've already proven they can beat Arizona, but it's a long haul schedule and I just wonder if they might not blow a couple "should wins" and enter the UW/UCLA/CU/Oregon chaos. Beavs go to the Desert this week, they'll need a win in Tempe to keep on track for a bye.

Pretty remarkable how Cal has regressed. There were signs in the OOC that their record was probably better than they were (they eeked out numerous games) but to be losing to ASU in Berkeley by 35? What the hell?

Anyway, we really really need to get a win @ USC. Can't do squat if you can't win any road games.

I don't think it'll be as mashed as last year. #10 OSU was 8-10 in conference, #3 Oregon was 10-8 in conference.

I think #3 wins 12 conference games...I think Stanford can do it. Also feel seeds 8 and lower finish below .500

#4-#8 could be within 2 games.
 
Tuesday games are full of danger/opportunity.

Georgia 13-5 (4-2) hosts Vanderbilt 11-8 (1-5) at 5pm on SECN. Georgia won by 3 at Vandy earlier this year.

George Washington 16-4 (6-1) is at #14 VCU 16-3 (6-0) at 5pm on CBSSN. This game will loom large in the A10 standings.

DePaul 11-10 (5-3) is at Providence 15-5 (5-2) is postponed due to a blizzard coming in. Will be rescheduled.

Wyoming 17-3 (6-1) is at Utah State 11-8 (4-3) at 7pm. Utah State is very tough at home.

Auburn 10-9 (2-4) hosts Texas A&M 13-5 (4-2) at 7pm on SECN. Auburn needs this one.

CSU 18-2 (5-2) is at Boise State 14-6 (4-3) at 9pm on ESPNU. BSU is a solid program and a tough place to get a win.
 
Tuesday games are full of danger/opportunity.

Georgia 13-5 (4-2) hosts Vanderbilt 11-8 (1-5) at 5pm on SECN. Georgia won by 3 at Vandy earlier this year.

George Washington 16-4 (6-1) is at #14 VCU 16-3 (6-0) at 5pm on CBSSN. This game will loom large in the A10 standings.

DePaul 11-10 (5-3) is at Providence 15-5 (5-2) is postponed due to a blizzard coming in. Will be rescheduled.

Wyoming 17-3 (6-1) is at Utah State 11-8 (4-3) at 7pm. Utah State is very tough at home.

Auburn 10-9 (2-4) hosts Texas A&M 13-5 (4-2) at 7pm on SECN. Auburn needs this one.

CSU 18-2 (5-2) is at Boise State 14-6 (4-3) at 9pm on ESPNU. BSU is a solid program and a tough place to get a win.

Don't like those MWC road games. And shame on Wyoming for having an RPI of 71 despite being 17-3.

VCU has found their form. GW would need a heroic performance to win…that's a brutal gym to visit in Richmond with the crowd + havoc. With VCU's RPI being 4th, GW will likely rise regardless.

Georgia's RPI is still 25th, should beat Vandy in Athens.

And meanwhile, we're 93rd :( we need some damn road wins to really move forward.
 
Georgia won, GW lost.

As expected, so far.

Wyoming down 3 at half.

Auburn (bad surprise here) down 7 at half.
 
CSU falls 82-78 @ Boise St. Drops CSU into a 5 way tie for 3rd in the MW and drops their RPI to 32nd. Still in good shape, but the MW does not allow for hardly any wiggle room because there just are very few true quality win opportunities.
 
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