Playoffs are really not that out of reach...

[hokiehead]

Watch what they do, not what they say. We've already seen the CFP committee give preference to Conference Champions in the past by ****ting on the Big 12 (TCU) a few years back because they don't have a CCG. Of course, they aren't going to reveal their selection criteria and what is weighted. They are leaving themselves as many "outs" as possible to justify whoever they put in the final four.

you're saying two different things here.
preference to a champion is one thing. preference to a conference which has a CCG is another.

that being said, it's my belief that what help the XII back two years ago was not lack of a CCG, it was lack of a conference champion (created by their commish changing the rules in the middle of the season). I still don't think Baylor had as strong a case as the other four, however, and acknowledge the SoS benefit from the other's CCGs was a factor.

I don't believe the committee gives a **** whether a conference has a CCG or declares their champion based on final standings. I do believe that the extra CCG gives those conference champions an SoS boost, however, but don't think the committee has ever indicated their considered the CCG heavier than any other game against a highly ranked opponent.

i understand why many feel that history suggests they do consider conference championships heavier. However, this is the first year where a non-conf champ has a really strong a case to be in the top four.

so, does anyone have a source for suggesting conference championships weigh more than the other criteria?

 

[PhillyBuff]

you're saying two different things here.
preference to a champion is one thing. preference to a conference which has a CCG is another.

that being said, it's my belief that what help the XII back two years ago was not lack of a CCG, it was lack of a conference champion (created by their commish changing the rules in the middle of the season). I still don't think Baylor had as strong a case as the other four, however, and acknowledge the SoS benefit from the other's CCGs was a factor.

I don't believe the committee gives a **** whether a conference has a CCG or declares their champion based on final standings. I do believe that the extra CCG gives those conference champions an SoS boost, however, but don't think the committee has ever indicated their considered the CCG heavier than any other game against a highly ranked opponent.

i understand why many feel that history suggests they do consider conference championships heavier. However, this is the first year where a non-conf champ has a really strong a case to be in the top four.

so, does anyone have a source for suggesting conference championships weigh more than the other criteria?

So what I am hearing from you is that PhillyBuff is right.... and Go Hokies.... help us get in!!!

 

[RiverBuff]

As Jim Mora says "Playoffs!!!!!!???!!!"

Sports is too much conjecturing and talking. Let's win Friday win, see how the other games play out, and then "talk"

 

[dwyermj]

FWIW Vegas is still taking bets on 8 teams to win the National Championship. Here are the current odds to win the CFP:

Alabama: 4/7
Ohio State: 11/4
Clemson: 11/2
Washington: 9/1
Michigan: 28/1
Wisconsin: 30/1
Penn State: 50/1
Colorado: 60/1

 

[letsgoavs192]

One thing I just thought of. IF we beat Washington and IF the committee puts us in (most likely if Clemson loses), we would more than likely be the 3 seed and avoid Alabama. I doubt they would want two Big 10 teams playing each other in the Semifinal game so they would probably have it 1 Alabama, 2 Ohio State, 3 Colorado, 4 Big 10 Winner (or possibly Michigan)

 

[Tatanka™]

One thing I just thought of. IF we beat Washington and IF the committee puts us in (most likely if Clemson loses), we would more than likely be the 3 seed and avoid Alabama. I doubt they would want two Big 10 teams playing each other in the Semifinal game so they would probably have it 1 Alabama, 2 Ohio State, 3 Colorado, 4 Big 10 Winner (or possibly Michigan)

Some on the committee might argue that they'd want to match the two Big 10 teams in a semifinal to eliminate the possibility of an all Big 10 final.

 

[PhillyBuff]

Some on the committee might argue that they'd want to match the two Big 10 teams in a semifinal to eliminate the possibility of an all Big 10 final.

I think you are right....

 

[Hawk Love]

Win = Rose
Lose = Alamo

 

[SotaBuff]

Win = Rose
Lose = Alamo

There's still a chance for us to make the Rose if it's a close loss. Have to show out, play Colorado football, and keep it close to avoid U$C jumping us.

But it will all be moot because the more I think about it the more I'm liking the underdog narrative that we have going into tomorrow and I think we pull out a close game. We have to play well and disciplined on special teams and limit turnovers. Do those two things and I like our chances.

Shoulder to Shoulder.

 

[SINKRATZ]

FWIW Vegas is still taking bets on 8 teams to win the National Championship. Here are the current odds to win the CFP:

Alabama: 4/7
Ohio State: 11/4
Clemson: 11/2
Washington: 9/1
Michigan: 28/1
Wisconsin: 30/1
Penn State: 50/1
Colorado: 60/1

Seems Vegas believes the current top 4 will remain the top 4 after this week.

 

[CUBUFF80]

So what I am hearing from you is that PhillyBuff is right.... and Go Hokies.... help us get in!!!

Were you always such a pain?

 

[SINKRATZ]

I'm seen a few posts on Allbuffs recently that suggest members heard or read that the committee weighs conference championships heavier than other criteria. However, everything I'm seeing suggests the contrary.

this is Kirby Hocutt a few weeks ago:

link

They may not weigh conference championships more than other criteria, but 3 of the 4 metrics they use are already reflected in the current rankings - if conference championships are 25% of their ranking criteria then the results this weekend could certainly have a big impact.

 

[SerenityBuff]

We're playing a really, really good football team on Friday, and we need to worry about beating them first and foremost. That said, I think Michigan is out, even with the head to head against us. They're .500 away from Ann Arbor IIRC, and their wins are over the worst P5 team in Rutgers and a pathetic Michigan State team. There's also the matter of yesterday-I think Michigan had several opportunities to put Ohio State away, and couldn't do it. They need to be playing in the Orange, Cotton, or Rose bowls. I'd love to see them again in Pasadena.

On a semi-related note, the crazy thing about OOC strength of schedule is that when UW scheduled Rutgers, they were a good team. And when UM schedules us, we were not. We were 2016 Rutgers. So UW was doing the right thing by scheduling a good Rutgers team and now their getting penalized for it. And vice-versa for Michigan scheduling us. I'm sure this point's been made somewhere in this thread, but I don't want to read it.

 

[PhillyBuff]

Were you always such a pain?

Mainly to Manhattan Beach Buff and junction buffan (their old names).... so u didn't see it as much....

Since Junction is no longer with us, I need to find new peeps to annoy....

 

[LongHaulBuff]

Junction is always with us!!

 

[MiamiBuffs]

Mainly to Manhattan Beach Buff and junction buffan (their old names).... so u didn't see it as much....

Since Junction is no longer with us, I need to find new peeps to annoy....

You can't argue with a mimosa.

 

[DesertDawg526]

Hey DD are you prepared to lose for the good of your family dynamic?

As if I have any control over the outcome

I certainly will respect any result and the winner is clearly the Pac12 Champ overall, no doubt. Today there are no excuses. Hopefully we'll see an injury free game with good officiating.

The winner deserves a CFB playoff spot and the loser deserves the Rose Bowl. Period. Congrats to both teams and may tonight be a great all around game!

 

[Hawk Love]

I just hate the politics IF we lose tonight. The Rose should be a given! I'm just worried USC and the power they yield, especially in So Cal, will be the reason they leapfrog us. While the Alamo is still a great bowl, it'd be a minor letdown after this season.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Joel doing work for this program on the national stage

 

[wsp4820]

Jesus, did Cowherd steal all of Trumps tanner? ****.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

I just hate the politics IF we lose tonight. The Rose should be a given! I'm just worried USC and the power they yield, especially in So Cal, will be the reason they leapfrog us. While the Alamo is still a great bowl, it'd be a minor letdown after this season.

I found this from 2015...

When it comes to selecting the teams for the remaining bowls, it's helpful to keep a few things in mind. First, forget about the divisions -- they're only used to select the Pac-12 Championship Game participants. For these bowl games, you need to think of the Pac-12 as a single table, ordered by conference record -- overall record is technically not part of the selection criteria. (Although we all know more wins overall make teams generally more attractive to bowls.)

Second, keep in mind that the rest of these bowl selections don't strictly follow the standings. Think of it more like a draft, where the Alamo Bowl gets the first pick of the remaining eligible teams, then the Holiday Bowl gets the next pick of the remaining eligible teams, etc.

Now, the Alamo Bowl committee can't just pick whoever they want; they have to select from among the team(s) with the best remaining record(s) and team(s) within one loss of those team(s). Same for the Holiday Bowl and Foster Farms Bowl. Link​

Rose takes the Pac12 Champ unless that champ is selected to the Playoff. If that happens Rose picks first among whose left. With USC holding a tie with us with their win I think the Rose would be free to pick them over us if we lose.

Rose Bowl Game

Date: Monday, January 2
Location: Rose Bowl, Los Angeles, CA
2015: Stanford 45, Iowa 16
Selection Criteria: Pac-12 Champ vs. Big Ten, unless Pac-12 champ is selected for the playoff, in which case Pac-12 No. 1 would take its place.
Holliday Bowl

Date: Tuesday, December 27
Location: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
2015 Game: Wisconsin 23, USC 21
Selection Criteria: Pac-12 No. 2 vs. Big Ten

Foster Farms Bowl

Date: Wednesday, December 28
Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
2015 Game: Nebraska 37, UCLA 29
Selection Criteria: Pac-12 No. 3 vs. Big Ten

Link

 

[jkppkjjkp]

Not sure if these points have been discussed already, but here are my current gripes.

1. F*ck Ohio State and their "safe" spot in the CFP. There is a solid chance that they would be leaving this weekend with 2 losses if they had to play in a conference championship game. They needed OT to beat Wisconsin earlier this season, and over the past two weeks they essentially went to OT with Mich. State who took a crack at a 2 point conversion to win the game late, and had to go to OT to beat Michigan.
Ohio State's performance against top 25 opponents has been just OK. Their perception has been riding high solely off of the thumping they gave Oklahoma in September; that OU team was still finding it's footing. OU won it's two games after tOSU by a combined 11 points over TCU and Texas and since then has looked better against mostly mediocre competition. That win should not carry so much weight. When they played tough teams they went down to the wire, and even went down to the wire against MSU.

2. Much of the USC love is centered around the "fact" that they are a different team with Darnold at the helm; bully for them, but also f*ck U$C and Clay Helton for dropping the ball and leaving him on the sideline. Choosing to play the wrong QB should count against a team more than sitting an injured QB. Sefo makes CU a different team, and without him the Buffs lost by 4 points at USC, when USC had figured out who they were supposed to be playing at QB. USC should have zero claim to the Rose Bowl over Washington or CU.

 

[JCOLE12010]

USC is 1-2 vs CU utah and Stanford
CU is 2-1 vs USC UU and SU
end of discussion

 

[steph]

Why does everybody keep saying that if CU were to lose tonite they would have the same record as USC? Losing the championship game doesn't erase the fact that we have one more win than USC. Everyone talks about having 3 loses, but in my book we would have 1 more win, and in my book wins are a bit more difficult to get than loses. Screw USC, we are going to win tonite anyway and USC can go play Appalachian state in the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl where they belong

 

[MiamiBuffs]

Why does everybody keep saying that if CU were to lose tonite they would have the same record as USC? Losing the championship game doesn't erase the fact that we have one more win than USC. Everyone talks about having 3 loses, but in my book we would have 1 more win, and in my book wins are a bit more difficult to get than loses. Screw USC, we are going to win tonite anyway and USC can go play Appalachian state in the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl where they belong

Seems to be a legit point...

	Before CCG​	​	After CCG​	​	After CCG​	​
​	Conf​	​	CU Loses​	​	CU Wins​	​
Colorado​	8-1​	-89%​	8-2​	-80%​	9-1​	-90%​
Washington​	8-1​	-89%​	9-1​	-90%​	8-2​	-80%​
USC​	7-2​	-78%​	7-2​	-78%​	7-2​	-78%​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

However, in years when the Rose Bowl is not one of the semifinals and its champion is one of the four CFP teams -- a likelihood if Washington wins the Pac-12 Championship Game? Per its contract with the CFP, the Rose Bowl gets to choose a replacement from the remaining bowl eligible Pac-12 teams, which doesn't have to be the loser of the Pac-12 Championship Game. (Although it probably will be this year, if that happens.) Link


The Rose Bowl has always been one of the more noble of the bowls. Thus, I have a hard time seeing them picking someone other than Colorado with its 2nd best in conference record. That being said the Rose Bowl does appear to have the option of going in a different direction.

 

[slider]

Take a lap Miami.

Rose takes the highest ranked CFP team. Which will be CU. And if it's USC they're going and we're in the Alamo

 

[JCOLE12010]

what if CU gets killed?

 

[hokiehead]

... the committee has continually said is their largest criteria: Conference Championships.

Could you please site your source on this? everything I'm finding is to the contrary. sincerely interested Wisconsin fan here.

 

[SerenityBuff]

I still think we get the 4 seed.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Take a lap Miami.

Rose takes the highest ranked CFP team. Which will be CU. And if it's USC they're going and we're in the Alamo

Interesting take here