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Polls, rankings and bowl projections

Why the hell did the Utes finish several spots above the Buffs? They barely beat a high school team this week.
 
Ringer said:
I would like to agree with you, but a win would be against New Hampshire and several others teams above would have to lose.
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The win has to be impressive. Like 49-0 at halftime. The Buffs botched their one chance at the Top 25 last year by letting Northern Colorado hang around into the 4th quarter. There's both this week and the bye week for teams ahead of them to lose, so I'd say there's definitely a chance. But I wouldn't be shocked if they're still 27th or 28th heading into the UCLA game even with a dominating win against New Hampshire.
 
StormTrooper said:
Tom Fornelli has his own personal statistical formula that he uses to make his rankings. He was one of the first people to give the 2016 team attention after they performed really well against CSU and Idaho State.
His system has the Buffs ranked 10th nationally in performance through 2 weeks of the season.
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Where? I was going to post the link, but can't find it. I did find that Nebraska made his bottom 25.
I also found Dennis Dodd's power rankings, where we're #24.
 
starting in the top 25 helps maintain ranking even with a loss, but let's take CU for example. let's pretend we have a totally magical year and win out. it is guaranteed we will make the playoff. where starting low hurts us is that we can't sustain a loss as well as someone who starts highly ranked. as ****ed as all this is, it is still way better than the pre-playoff era and as much as i love CU, i don't think we are likely to contend for a playoff spot this year. although it would be super cool if we do.

we need to beat some ranked opponents and get us back into the polls. once we start doing that, we will again become one of the programs that the voters are predisposed to start in the top 25 every year.
 
Liver said:
starting in the top 25 helps maintain ranking even with a loss, but let's take CU for example. let's pretend we have a totally magical year and win out. it is guaranteed we will make the playoff. where starting low hurts us is that we can't sustain a loss as well as someone who starts highly ranked. as ****ed as all this is, it is still way better than the pre-playoff era and as much as i love CU, i don't think we are likely to contend for a playoff spot this year. although it would be super cool if we do.

we need to beat some ranked opponents and get us back into the polls. once we start doing that, we will again become one of the programs that the voters are predisposed to start in the top 25 every year.
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Playoffs? Shoot.

If CU wins out, it wouldn’t surpise me if the Rose Bowl still opts for USC.
 
Clean Undies said:
Playoffs? Shoot.

If CU wins out, it wouldn’t surpise me if the Rose Bowl still opts for USC.
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that's not how it would work. it is totally fantastical at this point, but if CU wins out, it will make the playoff. for sure. look back at 2016 for trajectory on that type of thing. as p12 champions, and undefeated, we would be a certain lock for the playoffs. as i mentioned above, where it gets more challenging is when you have a loss. like take uw this year for example. they've got the loss to an sec team. that could come back to bite them if they now win out and win the conference.
 
Liver said:
that's not how it would work. it is totally fantastical at this point, but if CU wins out, it will make the playoff. for sure. look back at 2016 for trajectory on that type of thing. as p12 champions, and undefeated, we would be a certain lock for the playoffs. as i mentioned above, where it gets more challenging is when you have a loss. like take uw this year for example. they've got the loss to an sec team. that could come back to bite them if they now win out and win the conference.
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:ROFLMAO: Ain’t it a luxury being in a position to speculate about going undefeated in Mid September?

While I agree with your analysis, the fantasy level is high. My absurd reply is that the FBI, NCAA, B1G and PAC-12 might make an unfavorable ruling on the 4th appeal of the bogus Adrien Zapruder Martinez film, causing CU to vacate the Nub victory, which allows the 3rd place SEC West school to get that final playoffs spot, and punches NU’s bowl ticket without Frost needing a makeup game against Akron. And the Rose Bowl committee snubs CU again because that’s what happened in 2016. :p

Meanwhile Laviska’s 1700 yards receiving & 30TDs places him solidly as the heisman runner up against Ohio State’s QB.

/TV$$$$bitterfanrant
 
Ringer said:
Why the hell did the Utes finish several spots above the Buffs? They barely beat a high school team this week.
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Because pre-season rankings. Enough voters had Utah in their top 25 preseason for them to have 60 votes. So, despite the fact that they struggled with FCS Weber State (they beat them by fewer points than Utah State and were within a touchdown at half) and G5 UNI at home, the voters who had them ranked see no reason to drop them because they're undefeated. This is exactly why no one should be ranked until ~Week 3.

Although I wouldn't worry about Utah. They're going to get smashed by UW this weekend.
 
Denver_sc said:
Because pre-season rankings. Enough voters had Utah in their top 25 preseason for them to have 60 votes. So, despite the fact that they struggled with FCS Weber State (they beat them by fewer points than Utah State and were within a touchdown at half) and G5 UNI at home, the voters who had them ranked see no reason to drop them because they're undefeated. This is exactly why no one should be ranked until ~Week 3.

Although I wouldn't worry about Utah. They're going to get smashed by UW this weekend.
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I think that's one thing we can pay attention to. This group is more than capable of beating anyone in the division, but I still root for the north in any cross division game we're not involved in. Stanford beating USC two years ago was what got us into the Pac 12 title game.
 
Darth Snow said:
stop talking about anything more than 9 wins.
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My ceiling for this team is/was 9 wins, as until they prove they can beat USC or UW, I will probably always chalk those two games up as auto losses. I throw a 3rd loss in there as this team inevitably having an off day against an equal opponent (yes, I believe CU is on par with every other team on the schedule save for SC and UW). That said, why throw a wet blanket on fans talking about 10+ wins?
 
TSchekler said:
My ceiling for this team is/was 9 wins, as until they prove they can beat USC or UW, I will probably always chalk those two games up as auto losses. I throw a 3rd loss in there as this team inevitably having an off day against an equal opponent (yes, I believe CU is on par with every other team on the schedule save for SC and UW). That said, why throw a wet blanket on fans talking about 10+ wins?
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I hate happiness, but I hate irrational sadness when we win 7-8 even more.
 
The world needs debby downers, too.

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I went with 8 to start the season, I think. Unless our D plays lights out the rest of the year, I don't see anymore than that. Yes, we can score but, an injury here or there, we'd be in trouble. I think the D will improve over the season, but not enough for over 8. Hope I'm wrong. Maybe over 8 with a bowl win.
 
Liver said:
that's not how it would work. it is totally fantastical at this point, but if CU wins out, it will make the playoff. for sure. look back at 2016 for trajectory on that type of thing. as p12 champions, and undefeated, we would be a certain lock for the playoffs. as i mentioned above, where it gets more challenging is when you have a loss. like take uw this year for example. they've got the loss to an sec team. that could come back to bite them if they now win out and win the conference.
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With all the press CU is getting right now with Landman, Montez and Shenault... If they were to win out, they would surely be a top four team (expecting Alabama and Ohio State wins out). If either falters CU would be all the rage.
 
Darth Snow said:
I hate happiness, but I hate irrational sadness when we win 7-8 even more.
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My expectation was 7-5, and I think that or 8-4 was pretty consensus around here. I'm not sure that there's somebody on the conference schedule other than USC and/or Washington that you can look at right now and say we should be an underdog in that game. 10 wins is very, very possible again. Will I be sad if we're 7-5 or 8-4 after Cal? No.
 
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