Tad Boyle working the grad transfer market

[Buffnik]

http://www.buffzone.com/ci_30910102/tad-boyle-ready-cull-graduate-transfer-market-cu

"We're going to look at the graduate transfer market, which we've never done before," Boyle said. "We'll see what we can get and what's available. We're involved right now with a couple. We'll see if we can get that done. We may or may not. We've got a lot of oars in the water, so to speak. We recruit all season because of these kinds of scenarios. It's just the nature of college basketball today."

**************************
It looked like Rooney was listing some of the notable grad transfers this year, not necessarily having insight into who the Buffs had targeted (other than Nigel Johnson, who we lost to UVA). But one player he mentioned that I would be majorly interested in is Kendall Smith, a Cal State Northridge PG who started his college career at UNLV.

Smith's 2016-17 stats (from KenPom):
ORtg - 107.6
eFG% - 49.9
ARate - 28.0
TORate - 16.3
FTRate - 40.3
FT% - 77.6
2Pt% - 49.0
3Pt% - 34.5

Basically, he's not the complete player that Derrick White was, but his Steals, Assists & Turnovers are almost exactly the same. Everything is pretty much in the White ballpark other than blocked shots, but generally 10-20% less productive or efficient. Wouldn't replace what White brought (very few guys would), but he'd fill a lot of the gap.

 

[Buffs Basketball Fan]

Can you put up ken Pom numbers for the players leaving so we know what buffs need to replace

 

[Buffnik]

Can you put up ken Pom numbers for the players leaving so we know what buffs need to replace

OK. Here are the departing players, with the "Four Factors" in bold since they are the most correlated to winning games. Obviously, some stats are more important for a guard and some are more important for a big.

Name	ORtg	eFG%	TS%	OR%	DR%	ARate	TORate	Blk%	Stl%	FC/40	FD/40	FTRate	FT%	2PT%	3PT%
White	121.1	58.1	62.7	3.5	10.7	28.3	16.6	4.8	2.2	2.6	5.6	43.5	.805	.570	.401
Johnson	114.0	54.6	57.5	6.9	17.1	8.1	12.2	1.4	1.1	3.6	5.8	45.9	.673	.531	.386
Gordon	113.1	51.7	55.1	10.5	18.5	14.6	18.0	6.9	1.1	4.4	3.9	53.6	.654	.517	.333
Fortune	97.6	42.6	48.8	3.8	13.3	13.3	21.2	1.7	1.1	3.2	3.4	31.9	.852	.411	.292
Peters	99.1	46.0	47.8	2.1	7.5	11.6	13.7	0.3	1.6	4.0	3.8	35.6	.556	.429	.342
Akazili	77.4	30.5	35.4	2.6	8.0	21.6	28.2	1.1	1.6	5.2	2.9	26.6	.706	.419	.048

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Here's what we return (for Namon Wright, I used 2015-16 soph year at Mizzou):

Name	ORtg	eFG%	TS%	OR%	DR%	ARate	TORate	Blk%	Stl%	FC/40	FD/40	FTRate	FT%	2PT%	3PT%
King	106.5	54.6	56.2	8.0	19.4	5.0	17.8	0.8	0.9	3.0	3.6	25.9	.658	.520	.388
Wright	94.3	43.6	50.2	3.0	18.0	10.1	18.2	1.0	1.0	3.0	4.5	46.7	.761	.398	.315
Miller	104.7	54.6	54.2	8.6	19.9	6.0	16.0	1.6	1.1	6.4	4.2	42.8	.500	.547	.333
Collier	99.1	43.9	49.1	1.4	5.4	15.5	18.4	0.7	3.0	3.9	4.1	38.5	.740	.346	.333
Siewert	94.5	41.2	43.0	7.5	12.6	7.5	16.7	0.9	0.8	3.2	2.4	15.4	.643	.255	.386
Brown	94.6	42.6	46.2	2.5	3.5	8.0	17.3	0.9	1.5	3.4	2.8	25.9	.714	.429	.283

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Here's what jumps out at me with this:

• We got seriously sub-par production from our off guards last season (Wright at least draws fouls, so if he can improve other aspects, he should be a significant upgrade - and he did shoot 36.4% from 3pt as a frosh, so he's capable).
• King has got to get to the FT line more next season. If he does, his numbers would explode.
• We desperately need an Assists guy added to this class (JUCO or grad transfer). What we return hasn't been very good at sharing the ball. Though Dom was a 22.6 ARate as a soph, so he is capable of being a lot better here than he was last season.
• Miller has to improve his FT shooting and get is offensive rebounding numbers back up (13.4 as a soph) -- and stop fouling or he won't be able to stay on the court (but offensive rebounding was good last year and returns most of the guys who drove that).
• Collier and Siewert are shockingly bad from 2pt shot range. They need to get in the weight room because this usually means a guy is getting bodied off his spot.
• Brown and Collier disrupt things on defense by creating turnovers (particularly Collier), so they are useful even if they are mediocre on offense.
• We need someone to step up as a rim protector since we lose a lot of shot blocking from Wes and White (I think we're counting on freshmen here with Walton and Bey, but could use another athletic big added to this class and a guard who can block shots as a trailer like White).
• Our defensive rebounding looks really good for next year - one of the bright spots with what Wright brings from the off guard.

Looking at recruiting, a guy like Ondingo could make a big difference to the front court, considering the needs. So would a guy like France's Olivier Sarr. In the back court, Darrington or Ayayi would fill a huge void for a primary ball handler. Also, as I mentioned earlier, Kendall Smith would be a great addition.

In short, what we most need is a primary ball handler with a high ARate who will make the other players better while also adding consistent scoring punch (ideally as our #1 scorer). Secondarily, we need another big, athletic guy who can get offensive rebounds and improve our defense in the paint. In a blue sky scenario, we add a 3pt shooter for depth at the guard position because this doesn't look like a great shooting team next season once we get past George King and Lucas Siewert from 3pt range. But I don't know that we have room for 3 more players since it sounds like we're moving forward with a scholarship to Strating. If that happens, he better perform as an offensive rebounder and 3pt shooter for us while giving some gritty defense -- otherwise, it seems like it's a mistake.

 

[Hunchback Quaker]

OK. Here are the departing players, with the "Four Factors" in bold since they are the most correlated to winning games. Obviously, some stats are more important for a guard and some are more important for a big.

Name	ORtg	eFG%	TS%	OR%	DR%	ARate	TORate	Blk%	Stl%	FC/40	FD/40	FTRate	FT%	2PT%	3PT%
White	121.1	58.1	62.7	3.5	10.7	28.3	16.6	4.8	2.2	2.6	5.6	43.5	.805	.570	.401
Johnson	114.0	54.6	57.5	6.9	17.1	8.1	12.2	1.4	1.1	3.6	5.8	45.9	.673	.531	.386
Gordon	113.1	51.7	55.1	10.5	18.5	14.6	18.0	6.9	1.1	4.4	3.9	53.6	.654	.517	.333
Fortune	97.6	42.6	48.8	3.8	13.3	13.3	21.2	1.7	1.1	3.2	3.4	31.9	.852	.411	.292
Peters	99.1	46.0	47.8	2.1	7.5	11.6	13.7	0.3	1.6	4.0	3.8	35.6	.556	.429	.342
Akazili	77.4	30.5	35.4	2.6	8.0	21.6	28.2	1.1	1.6	5.2	2.9	26.6	.706	.419	.048

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Here's what we return (for Namon Wright, I used 2015-16 soph year at Mizzou):

Name	ORtg	eFG%	TS%	OR%	DR%	ARate	TORate	Blk%	Stl%	FC/40	FD/40	FTRate	FT%	2PT%	3PT%
King	106.5	54.6	56.2	8.0	19.4	5.0	17.8	0.8	0.9	3.0	3.6	25.9	.658	.520	.388
Wright	94.3	43.6	50.2	3.0	18.0	10.1	18.2	1.0	1.0	3.0	4.5	46.7	.761	.398	.315
Miller	104.7	54.6	54.2	8.6	19.9	6.0	16.0	1.6	1.1	6.4	4.2	42.8	.500	.547	.333
Collier	99.1	43.9	49.1	1.4	5.4	15.5	18.4	0.7	3.0	3.9	4.1	38.5	.740	.346	.333
Siewert	94.5	41.2	43.0	7.5	12.6	7.5	16.7	0.9	0.8	3.2	2.4	15.4	.643	.255	.386
Brown	94.6	42.6	46.2	2.5	3.5	8.0	17.3	0.9	1.5	3.4	2.8	25.9	.714	.429	.283

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Here's what jumps out at me with:

• We got seriously sub-par production from our off guards last season (Wright at least draws fouls, so if he can improve other aspects, he should be a significant upgrade - and he did shoot 36.4% from 3pt as a frosh, so he's capable).
• King has got to get to the FT line more next season. If he does, his numbers would explode.
• We desperately need an Assists guy added to this class (JUCO or grad transfer). What we return hasn't been very good at sharing the ball. Though Dom was a 22.6 ARate as a soph, so he is capable of being a lot better here than he was last season.
• Miller has to improve his FT shooting and get is offensive rebounding numbers back up (13.4 as a soph) -- and stop fouling or he won't be able to stay on the court (but offensive rebounding was good last year and returns most of the guys who drove that).
• Collier and Siewert are shockingly bad from 2pt shot range. They need to get in the weight room because this usually means a guy is getting bodied off his spot.
• Brown and Collier disrupt things on defense by creating turnovers (particularly Collier), so they are useful even if they are mediocre on offense.
• We need someone to step up as a rim protector since we lose a lot of shot blocking from Wes and White (I think we're counting on freshmen here with Walton and Bey, but could use another athletic big added to this class and a guard who can block shots as a trailer like White).
• Our defensive rebounding looks really good for next year - one of the bright spots with what Wright brings from the off guard.

Looking at recruiting, a guy like Ondingo could make a big difference to the front court, considering the needs. So would a guy like France's Olivier Sarr. In the back court, Darrington or Ayayi would fill a huge void for a primary ball handler. Also, as I mentioned earlier, Kendall Smith would be a great addition.

In short, what we most need is a primary ball handler with a high ARate who will make the other players better while also adding consistent scoring punch (ideally as our #1 scorer). Secondarily, we need another big, athletic guy who can get offensive rebounds and improve our defense in the paint. In a blue sky scenario, we add a 3pt shooter for depth at the guard position because this doesn't look like a great shooting team next season once we get past George King and Lucas Siewert from 3pt range. But I don't know that we have room for 3 more players since it sounds like we're moving forward with a scholarship to Strating. If that happens, he better perform as an offensive rebounder and 3pt shooter for us while giving some gritty defense -- otherwise, it seems like it's a mistake.

Wow, fantastic breakdown. A lot of work went into this. Kendall Smith seems like the ideal grad transfer target. His assist rate skyrocketed last year while his usage remained extremely high. That's good to se for such a high volume player, as his scoring didn't suffer that much. Exciting stuff. His Drtg is great at well

 

[BuffG]

Here's a list of mid-major grad transfers

Guys that haven't been mentioned that really stand out:

1. Kassius Robertson 6'3 G Canisius
He's shooting 40% on 452 3P attempts over his last 2 years
2. Henry Caruso 6'4 G/F Princeton
Coming off a foot injury but led Princeton with 15 pts, 6.2 rebs, 4.4 win shares, 25.2 PER and 5.2 BPM in '15-'16
3. Mark Alstork 6'4 G Wright State
Closest we'll get to a Derrick White replacement. Had eight 25+ pt games last year. Got 39 pts against Toledo. 29/10/8 slash against Miami(OH).

 

[Buffs Basketball Fan]

Great job Buffnik.
Puts things in context

See what's lost and what's missing.

 

[YngC]

Really, really frustrating article to read. Tad is so damn stubborn and he's behind his peers on accepting the reality of coaching at this level in 2017.

 

[Hunchback Quaker]

Here's a list of mid-major grad transfers

Guys that haven't been mentioned that really stand out:

1. Kassius Robertson 6'3 G Canisius
He's shooting 40% on 452 3P attempts over his last 2 years
2. Henry Caruso 6'4 G/F Princeton
Coming off a foot injury but led Princeton with 15 pts, 6.2 rebs, 4.4 win shares, 25.2 PER and 5.2 BPM in '15-'16
3. Mark Alstork 6'4 G Wright State
Closest we'll get to a Derrick White replacement. Had eight 25+ pt games last year. Got 39 pts against Toledo. 29/10/8 slash against Miami(OH).

Didn't CU strike out on a Caruso at guard a few years back? A&M got him, I believe?

 

[Buffnik]

Didn't CU strike out on a Caruso at guard a few years back? A&M got him, I believe?

Yeah. His dad was AD there or something.

 

[Hunchback Quaker]

Yeah. His dad was AD there or something.

Is this the same guy? Did he transfer?

 

[Goose]

Is this the same guy? Did he transfer?

Nope. That's Alex Caruso that we were after. He was the same class as XJ, Josh and Wes.

 

[Hunchback Quaker]

Add Markel Crawford from Memphis to the grad transfer list. Averaged about 13 a game last year. Big guard, good defender. If CU chooses to pursue, I don't think they'll be the only ones

 

[Darth Snow]

hrmm

 

[BuffinCali]

Kendall Smith is a very good player! I saw him place twice this season. This would be a very nice get.

 

[Buffnik]

hrmm

Oh, hell yes!

Some quick stats on Bibbins for what he averaged the past 2 seasons:

PPG = 12.6
Reb = 3.2
Ast = 4.8
eFG% = 50.3
ARate = 29.0
FTRate = 44.5
FT% = .865
2Pt% = .425
3Pt% = .408
TORate = 20.6 (this has to improve)
Stl% = 2.0
DR% = 9.1 (which is absolutely insane for a 5'8" PG)

 

[Buffnik]

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jbibbs21

Pretty sure that Will was referencing Compton Magic not only because of some guys Tad recruited from there like Spencer & XJ... but Namon Wright is also an alum and he is following Bibbins. Hmmmm.

 

[Buffnik]

Also, we're in the mix for McKinley Wright (Mr. Basketball for Minnesota who had been an Archie Miller commit).

 

[Mack66]

We need this guy

 

[Hunchback Quaker]

So, should we just take the Long Beach State starting backcourt?

 

[Buffnik]

So, should we just take the Long Beach State starting backcourt?

Wouldn't be the worst thing. Blackwell would redshirt his transfer year and then take the point in 2018-19. Better than we've got.

 

[Hunchback Quaker]

Wouldn't be the worst thing. Blackwell would redshirt his transfer year and then take the point in 2018-19. Better than we've got.

I agree, and I like both players, but I'd like some size, too. If I had my choice, I'd love Darrington and Kendall Smith. But realistically, that's not going to happen. Could do much worse than the LBSU crew

 

[CUFan]

Would have liked to get a visit from Michael Weathers, Miami (OH):

http://247sports.com/Bolt/Arkansas-to-get-official-visit-from-transfer-point-guard-52226872

 

[jcatcher]

Really, really frustrating article to read. Tad is so damn stubborn and he's behind his peers on accepting the reality of coaching at this level in 2017.

Tad wants to do it like Wisconsin does. Get 3* guys from your footprint and keep them for four years and you have a team. And to be fair, Wisconsin is about the size of Colorado. The problem is, within 150 miles of Madison includes all of Chicago and Northern Illinois as well as Minneapolis/St. Paul. 10's of millions of people. CO gets to pick and choose the best from Hugo and Las Vegas, New Mexico.

 

[BuffinCali]

Tad wants to do it like Wisconsin does. Get 3* guys from your footprint and keep them for four years and you have a team. And to be fair, Wisconsin is about the size of Colorado. The problem is, within 150 miles of Madison includes all of Chicago and Northern Illinois as well as Minneapolis/St. Paul. 10's of millions of people. CO gets to pick and choose the best from Hugo and Las Vegas, New Mexico.

The problem is: Tad is a solid coach but a mediocre recruiter and his current staff have proven to be below average recruiters. Bottomline, Tad need a better staff around him, particularly recruiting assistants if he is not going to be that champion.

 

[Buffnik]

The problem is: Tad is a solid coach but a mediocre recruiter and his current staff have proven to be below average recruiters. Bottomline, Tad need a better staff around him, particularly recruiting assistants if he is not going to be that champion.

Tad is a pretty strong closer. Our close rate when we get guys onto campus is pretty great (other than a string of losses that all seemed to be SGs -- boy did that show up in the results the past few years). I don't think he's the best talent evaluator since he seems to get enamored at times and talks himself into players. I totally agree that on his staff he needs talent evaluator hawks who can sell. It would be great if they also engaged on social media to build hype & enthusiasm, too.

 

[BuffinCali]

Yes, social media chomps would be very beneficial from ALL of the staff, including Tad. Look what Chev has done with football!

 

[tante]

Tad wants to do it like Wisconsin does. Get 3* guys from your footprint and keep them for four years and you have a team. And to be fair, Wisconsin is about the size of Colorado. The problem is, within 150 miles of Madison includes all of Chicago and Northern Illinois as well as Minneapolis/St. Paul. 10's of millions of people. CO gets to pick and choose the best from Hugo and Las Vegas, New Mexico.

So just to be clear both Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig were 4 star players for Wisco, so they are starting with talented guys. This was a very senior heavy roster, very similar to ours. I expect them to take a large step back and probably not make the dance next year, also similar to us.

The year before, when the made the title game, they had 5 star Sam Dekker and 4 star Kaminsky. But to your point they identify talent, develop them over time, and repeatedly put out teams made up of mostly juniors and seniors and that is absolutely something we need to get better at.

 

[YngC]

Tad had a formula: Find guys that fit your measurables that do one or two things really, really well and hope to develop them (Spencer, Andre, Wes). That was supplemented by taking a few fliers (Ski, Mills, Jenkins) and landing a highly ranked guy or two, like XJ or Wes.

In 2013, he went away from that. I really liked Fletch, but as a recruit, he didn't have something that he was already really good at. Hopkins had really good athleticism, but he didn't have a skilled specialty. Dustin was a supposed great shooter, but we obviously haven't seen that translate to his college career anywhere. King was his flier for the class, and I'd say it's been a net positive, but still. In 2016, he finally got back to it with Peters and Siewart, with Del being the flier.

What hurt this program more than anything else was the close to the 2012 class. Instead of landing Ty Wallace, Boyle settled for Talton. Then, when he realized that was too big of a reach in a class where he already reached, he panicked and talked himself into signing Stalzer. It was a disastrous mistake and he hasn't recovered fully.

 

[Buffnik]

Tad had a formula: Find guys that fit your measurables that do one or two things really, really well and hope to develop them (Spencer, Andre, Wes). That was supplemented by taking a few fliers (Ski, Mills, Jenkins) and landing a highly ranked guy or two, like XJ or Wes.

In 2013, he went away from that. I really liked Fletch, but as a recruit, he didn't have something that he was already really good at. Hopkins had really good athleticism, but he didn't have a skilled specialty. Dustin was a supposed great shooter, but we obviously haven't seen that translate to his college career anywhere. King was his flier for the class, and I'd say it's been a net positive, but still. In 2016, he finally got back to it with Peters and Siewart, with Del being the flier.

What hurt this program more than anything else was the close to the 2012 class. Instead of landing Ty Wallace, Boyle settled for Talton. Then, when he realized that was too big of a reach in a class where he already reached, he panicked and talked himself into signing Stalzer. It was a disastrous mistake and he hasn't recovered fully.

Close of 2012 was part of a potpourri of mistakes and bad luck at the guard position. But that was the year Tad and his staff knew they absolutely had to get immediate backup help at the primary ball handler spot. Mistakes followed by, as you said, going away from the formula the next year on Hopkins. Then we've had Dom with injury problems that messed up his freshman and junior seasons along with the 2015 sight-unseen flyer on Tommy and, again, not getting a guy for that role in the 2016 class. Huge hole to fill as the 2017 class gets completed.

But, as your post also reveals, the off guard has been as bad. We missed on so many guys who were close on: Hield, Mathews, Dorsey, Shamet.

Transfer market has helped a lot with Chen, Carlon, Fortune and White, but it hasn't been enough. Hopefully Tad has looked at his recruiting record with guards and realized that if we miss on the main freshman targets it's better to fill the gap when immediate help is needed by taking a transfer (grad or JUCO) than to take a flyer on a high school kid.

 

[Hunchback Quaker]

Tad had a formula: Find guys that fit your measurables that do one or two things really, really well and hope to develop them (Spencer, Andre, Wes). That was supplemented by taking a few fliers (Ski, Mills, Jenkins) and landing a highly ranked guy or two, like XJ or Wes.

In 2013, he went away from that. I really liked Fletch, but as a recruit, he didn't have something that he was already really good at. Hopkins had really good athleticism, but he didn't have a skilled specialty. Dustin was a supposed great shooter, but we obviously haven't seen that translate to his college career anywhere. King was his flier for the class, and I'd say it's been a net positive, but still. In 2016, he finally got back to it with Peters and Siewart, with Del being the flier.

What hurt this program more than anything else was the close to the 2012 class. Instead of landing Ty Wallace, Boyle settled for Talton. Then, when he realized that was too big of a reach in a class where he already reached, he panicked and talked himself into signing Stalzer. It was a disastrous mistake and he hasn't recovered fully.

Can't help but notice that 2016 was the year he got back to his formula, meaning 2013-2015 he was off of his formula, recruiting-wise. Those are the exact years Rodney Billups was coordinator, are they not?