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AllBuffs | Unofficial fan site for the University of Colorado at Boulder Athletics programs

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Colorado - Stanford Game Thread

http://www.testudotimes.com/2014/3/10/5489958/foul-defend-up-three-final-possession-stats
The Decision:

Most coaches openly admit to being for or against fouling when up three late. It’s a commonly debated basketball topic with plenty of examples supporting both sides. Stats guru KenPom posted a breakdown last season. According to Pomeroy, who went through similar late-game scenarios from the 2009-10 college season to 2012-13, the difference is small. Teams who fouled won (either in regulation or in overtime) 92% of the time. Teams who let it play out and defend won 93% of those games.
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Here’s where the math comes into play. Virginia only makes 66.1% of its free throws, 11th in the league. The Cavaliers rebound 34.7% of their offensive opportunities and shoot 48.6% on two-point shots.
Make free throw66.1%
Offensive rebound34.7%
Make 2-pt FG48.6%
Since all three of them have to occur, Virginia only has a 11.1% chance to force overtime.
Click to expand...
 
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