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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

How come every conference is going toward divisionless but most tweets on the Big 12 alignment are people trying to divide it into 2 divisions? Did Yormark say something about this?
Lots of people aren’t paying attention.
 
I think some of you would like this:



That makes sense geographically to minimize travel but holy **** is it competitively unbalanced.

Interesting take by Nate Silver here - especially with regards to Stanford and Cal. One of the big punchlines, which I'd agree with, is essentially the fan apathy towards college football here relative to other regions.https://www.natesilver.net/p/ok-so-whats-your-college-football

And the Pac-12 left itself vulnerable with mediocre TV ratings. Over 2015-19, here’s how the various Pac-12 schools ranked in TV viewers per game among all college football programs:

  • USC — 16th
  • Stanford — 25th
  • Oregon — 26th
  • Washington — 28th
  • UCLA — 29th
  • Washington State — 39th
  • Utah — 41st
  • California — 47th
  • Arizona State — 50th
  • Colorado — 58th
  • Arizona — 62nd
  • Oregon State — 74th

...
The West has considerably lower overall college football avidity than the South or the Midwest, which lowers both the ceiling and the floor for TV ratings.

I haven’t read the article but if his argument is built upon that it’s a stupid argument- P12N had carriage in fewer households than pretty much if not all the other tier 3 distribution networks for the other conferences, and much of the content was on P12N. A better measure would be something like “Avg TV viewership on nationally televised games”. I bet a number of P12 schools do better by that metric.
 
That makes sense geographically to minimize travel but holy **** is it competitively unbalanced.



I haven’t read the article but if his argument is built upon that it’s a stupid argument- P12N had carriage in fewer households than pretty much if not all the other tier 3 distribution networks for the other conferences, and much of the content was on P12N. A better measure would be something like “Avg TV viewership on nationally televised games”. I bet a number of P12 schools do better by that metric.
Yea my thought too. Hope he addressed that in his article or it's just bad analysis
 
Why are people talking about the Pac living on and fighting to maintain its A5 or Power 5 status. It’s a distinction without a difference since the new playoff format simply takes the six highest ranked conference champs and the 6 best at large teams. It’s not A5 + 1, it’s just the top 6 ranked conference champs. The realignment happening now may cause them to adjust the number of conf champs vs at-large, but no version of the Pac going forward will change what they do there.
 
That makes sense geographically to minimize travel but holy **** is it competitively unbalanced.



I haven’t read the article but if his argument is built upon that it’s a stupid argument- P12N had carriage in fewer households than pretty much if not all the other tier 3 distribution networks for the other conferences, and much of the content was on P12N. A better measure would be something like “Avg TV viewership on nationally televised games”. I bet a number of P12 schools do better by that metric.
ESPN tracks ratings in like 55-60 US media markets for its broadcasts & then applies metrics on which teams give numbs where irrespective of being ranked to see who lifts broadcasts where.

I haven't seen that they've released this (I assume much of it is proprietary). But some has leaked out and, basically, the Northeast and Pacific Coast are dogsh!t for numbers. Not only do the teams in those regions not draw locally like top teams in other regions, they underperform in other markets.

iirc, Birmingham was the best CFB market.

Nothing surprising here, but it does emphasize that the Big 12 needs to be very careful and strategic with further expansion. Maybe it makes sense to have a team that anchors the NE and a team that anchors the PTZ, but for fan engagement it's all about the South and Midwest. Mountain isn't bad, but the population is small. Probably smart of Yormark to decide on owning Denver, Phoenix and SLC & leaving it at that (only states that matter in the region and all are growing like crazy).
 
Why are people talking about the Pac living on and fighting to maintain its A5 or Power 5 status. It’s a distinction without a difference since the new playoff format simply takes the six highest ranked conference champs and the 6 best at large teams. It’s not A5 + 1, it’s just the top 6 ranked conference champs. The realignment happening now may cause them to adjust the number of conf champs vs at-large, but no version of the Pac going forward will change what they do there.
As long as there is a stipulation in CFB that includes “top 4+ conference Champs” get in, I will feel OK about where we are.

I think Prime somewhat equalizes the revenue gap for CU as it pertains to how that might affect recruiting, so as long as CU has a clear path to a 12-16 team playoff, I think he’ll be happy here. If the auto bids go away and things trend toward B1G and SEC kind of closing things off to non-P2 (unofficially of course), that’s when I’ll get worried about his vision for what he can accomplish at CU.

However, I don’t see that happening as long as ESPN and Fox are paying for non-P2 content
 
After the networks devour the ACC, I suspect the MWC will be next.

Assuming the AAC picks up the PAC-4 schools, they will be going after SDSU, Boise State, CSU, and Air Force.

I don’t think Fox will have any interest in the MWC after getting USC, UCLA, UO, and UW.
Networks are not devouring the ACC. It does not look like some posters are looking at Market Conditions for media rights. It has all changed in the last year. There is a finite amount of money and it is all committed. Fox, ESPN, are not shelling out money for non-premium tier programs. They just committed available money to USC, UCLA, UW, OU, TX, Oregon, CU, UA, ASU and UU. The only way the MWC or AAC can pick up the remaining PAC schools is if a media company steps up and says we will give pro rata shares for the additional members.

With all due respect to Buffnick, I have never felt in todays market that adding G5 members adding any value unless they had a great brand AND were in a population Center and the Big 12 took most of those already. Tulane might slightly move the needle - SDSU and SMU do not.

In the future, football programs will be desire if they add significant Fan engagement. The Big 10 marquee games bring north of 10 million viewers, same for the SEC. The PAC 12 best rated game last year was
(7) USC at (16) UCLA – Week 12, Saturday, Nov. 19, 8pm ET, FOX Viewers: 4.53 million. And those 2 teams are going to the Big10.
 
Why are people talking about the Pac living on and fighting to maintain its A5 or Power 5 status. It’s a distinction without a difference since the new playoff format simply takes the six highest ranked conference champs and the 6 best at large teams. It’s not A5 + 1, it’s just the top 6 ranked conference champs. The realignment happening now may cause them to adjust the number of conf champs vs at-large, but no version of the Pac going forward will change what they do there.
Because only one G5 team thats conference champs can get into the playoffs. Whereas all P5 conference Champs get it. But the games matter a lot more when they have a chance to a playoff spot and you aren't fighting with MAC, MW, AAC, Sun Belt, and CUSA teams for that spot. That's a significant difference.
 
Normal (plus K-State)

CU
KU
ISU
OSU
KSU
Utah
Arizona
ASU

Weirdos and Randos

BYU
Baylor
TCU
WVU
UCF
Cinci
TT
Houston
this is basically perfect.

competitively imperfect i suppose but i respect the nod to tradition and such.
 
Because only one G5 team thats conference champs can get into the playoffs. Whereas all P5 conference Champs get it. But the games matter a lot more when they have a chance to a playoff spot and you aren't fighting with MAC, MW, AAC, Sun Belt, and CUSA teams for that spot. That's a significant difference.
That’s not true, there is no such stipulation. They chose to include 6 as the number of conf champs to guarantee at least 1 group of 5 champ gets in, but the criteria is just the 6 highest ranked conference champions. If those six are SEC, Big 10, Big 12, MWC, AAC, and Conf U.S.A., so be it and the ACC champ would not be an AQ. There is no carve out for any specific league or league type.
 
The PAC schools really don't have much value. I was told 15 mil on high end and that's if linked with attractive brands which aren't out there right now. Their brands are all worth 40 mil combined. They were never getting into the B1G. A case for Stanford in the B12 but not Cal and Stanford doesn't want to go to the B12.

The value is mainly PAC A5 status and their TV network which could be brought by ESPN for pennies on a dollar.

Rumor is UCONN and Oregon State is going to the B12 so the P4 could go to P3.

I did get info that Comcast debt still has to be paid by the previous schools in during that time so that could be a coup for any conference that wants to merge.
I still don't get the UConn thing, and I think the XII has enough basketball brands-

KU-Blue blood.
Arizona-close to blue blood, but I can't give them that status because they haven't been to a Final Four since 2001. Let's say very good program.
Houston-Final Four in 2021, #1 seed last year.
**** Bailer-2021 champs
Texas Tech-2019 runners up. Sweet 16 in 2022. Bad last year, but they made a good hire in Grant McCasland.
TCU-Two words: Jamie Dixon.
K-State-Haven't they been to three elite eights since 2010?

I think you add Wazzu over UConn. Another basketball cupcake would help this league. I think Wazzu's a threat to sue here just like OSU is, and I don't think that's worth it for anyone. You're also getting a school that would willingly give you a lot of late night inventory, and would likely take......$20Mish.
 
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I still don't get the UConn thing, and I think the XII has enough basketball brands-

KU-Blue blood.
Arizona-close to blue blood, but I can't give them that status because they haven't been to a Final Four since 2001. Let's say very good program.
Houston-Final Four in 2021, #1 seed last year.
**** Bailer-2021 champs
Texas Tech-2019 runners up. Sweet 16 in 2022. Bad last year, but they made a good hire in Grant McCasland.
TCU-Two words: Jamie Dixon.
K-State-Haven't they been to three elite eights since 2010?

I think you add Wazzu over UConn.
I don't know how much Wazzu can move the needle. At least with UConn you have growth potential considering the population, its hoops programs, and cooperation & desire from ESPN on building that brand.
 
There is no A5 designation so I wish people would not use it. The Power 5 were allowed some autonomy in the NCAA bylaws. Without doing a 5 paragraph post - it is the Power 5 or P5 that are allowed autonomy not some A5 designation.
 
That’s not true, there is no such stipulation. They chose to include 6 as the number of conf champs to guarantee at least 1 group of 5 champ gets in, but the criteria is just the 6 highest ranked conference champions. If those six are SEC, Big 10, Big 12, MWC, AAC, and Conf U.S.A., so be it and the ACC champ would not be an AQ. There is no carve out for any specific league or league type.
You don't think an A5 status conference won't have precedence? Be logical.
 
There is no A5 designation so I wish people would not use it. The Power 5 were allowed some autonomy in the NCAA bylaws. Without doing a 5 paragraph post - it is the Power 5 or P5 that are allowed autonomy not some A5 designation.

The term Power Five is not defined by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), and the origin of the term is unknown. It has been used in its current meaning since at least 2006.[2] However, the Power Five conferences are identified individually under NCAA rules as "autonomy conferences," which grants them some independence from standard NCAA rules to provide additional resources for the benefit of student-athletes.[3][note 2]

The term is also occasionally used in other college sports, although in many non-football sports, most notably basketball, anywhere from six to ten conferences may be considered "high-major"–the Big East Conference, Atlantic 10 Conference, American Athletic Conference (AAC), Mountain West Conference, and West Coast Conference, in addition to the Power Five football conferences.[citation needed]

 
I don't know how much Wazzu can move the needle. At least with UConn you have growth potential considering the population, its hoops programs, and cooperation & desire from ESPN on building that brand.
ESPN wants them. Wazzu is obviously more proven. Gets good ratings on ESPN as well.
 
@BlackNGold, there is massive value to being A5 and even ND is A5 due to the ACC. Yes, maintaining A5 status is probably worth 2.5 billion dollars if not more. It's an exclusive club.
 
I don't believe even becoming a non A5 is an option for any of the 4 schools. It would kill them. They would have to merge.
 
ESPN wants them. Wazzu is obviously more proven. Gets good ratings on ESPN as well.
What I'm really curious about is the chatter about Gonzaga & UConn joining. I'd assume the Huskies would be non-football but they'd get some sort of fb scheduling plan on the ND model.

Gonzaga is a real problem for Wazzu.

Also, I wonder if the increased exposure of Big 12 teams by playing UConn & Gonzaga (plus conference tourney) has carryover from the basketball popularity of those programs and would give a bump to Big 12 football ratings in the future.

And if this happens & works out, we're going to be talking about raiding Big East, A-10, WCC, etc. for non-football expansion.
 
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