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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

PAC MAN said:
Nike, Amazon, and Microsoft people who are boosters of both schools could help with that shortfall.
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They are rich programs, but is Phil knight really giving $50m/year to Oregon? Even so, that’s just to get those programs back to even with everyone else. Most of those other programs also have rich donors. No matter how you slice it, they are at an incredible disadvantage, financially, and that’s not even touching on the 2-3 time zone travel 5-6 times:year
 
MtnBuff said:
Considering that the MWC was paying between $3-4 million per school they remain an option for cheap programming.

AAC has been paying close to $7 million per school. Question is will ESPN be willing to sweeten the pot enough to pay that much to eight additional schools.

Also a real question at this point if Stanford and Cal want to continue to try to compete at the highest level. I could easily see Stanford deciding to go the route of the Ivies and Cal following them.

Yes Cal has a huge stadium debt and both schools have some wealthy alums who want to see them continue at FBS but getting left out of the big media money doesn't help them in any way.
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I’d see it more likely Stanford goes independent, or has some sort of alliance with Notre Dame (better season gets the CFB playoff). I see Cal going Big West.
 
nolabuff said:
I still can’t get over the deal UW and UO are taking to get into the B1G. I guess if I were them, I’d be excited and it’s not like they had much of choice anyway. But it’s crazy to me to agree to make maybe as much money one day as the BIG12/ACC schools, which would still only put you at half the money of all the teams you’re actually playing against are making. Really the only benefit of this for them is that maybe they’ll get the same deal with the same conference structure that Rutgers gets now, in eight years. It seems like a pretty steep price to pay for ruining the competitiveness of your athletic program and becoming a cucked mockery for a decade.

It was easy to make sense of the unpopular direction college football was taking when the parties involved all benefited financially. When the schools start losing that benefit or are gambling their future on maybe having it, it does feel to me like a huge step towards finally breaking the whole thing and UW and UO will be the poster children of decisions that truly became illogical.
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I hope this does to UO and UDub what the PAC-12 did to us…abject losers.
 
MtnBuff said:
You are probably correct about ESPN or Fox being willing to pay for West Coast programing. The remaining schools plus the MWC would do that. The issue becomes how much they pay.

The PAC turned down $28.5 million per school early in the process. Now they might be lucky to close to $10 million per.
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The fall from the top (arrogance) is a heck of a price to pay.
 
With all the fuss about competitiveness of the B1G or PAC or Big 12, the national championship trophy will firmly reside in the SEC.
 
CUAviator said:
Little Rock?? WTH?
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Going Crazy Brock Lesnar GIF by WWE
 
MtnBuff said:
Given a choice between staying in a dying PAC, going to a second level B12, or taking a deal with the B1G that makes you a second class citizen for multiple years but still pays better than the other two options it isn't a hard choice and if Colorado had been given it I would fully expect us to take it as well.

There has been plenty of discussion here though that the current TV/Media revenue model isn't going to last.

A lot of younger adults don't even have a TV much less cable, many don't sit down and watch a program unless they are streaming something on their schedule. The cable companies are bleeding customers like they have been cut in the jugular.

Look what has happened in the music industry. For decades it was about selling records. Musicians went on tour with the specific intent of promoting record sales, radio was a driving force in selling records.

Now it is hard to find a place that sells "records" be they vinyl or CDs, people pay for a streaming service and tours are were the money is with concert ticket prices through the roof for the big stars.

I can understand UW/UO taking this deal but it is worth wondering what the future will look like. How much longer are media companies going to be willing to dish out billions of dollars for a dwindling market and instead does the future mean that we buy streaming rights for each game or for a season directly from the school or from the conference.
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A) agree we would have taken the deal if offered. But I am much happier where we are with a chance to actually win and make a name for ourselves (for however long it lasts) than to forever be the bottom feeder of the B1G.

2) Vinyl records are making a crazy comeback. we have a record player and my kids ask for vinyl as presents all the time.

d) Music tours are still nuts. Ask any Swiftie.
 
PAC MAN said:
After the networks devour the ACC, I suspect the MWC will be next.

Assuming the AAC picks up the PAC-4 schools, they will be going after SDSU, Boise State, CSU, and Air Force.

I don’t think Fox will have any interest in the MWC after getting USC, UCLA, UO, and UW.
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The AAC can only poach with A5 status. They need 100m to merge with the PAC. Their assets:
1. A5 status
2. TV production and equipment
3. Brand name
4. Stanford and Cal
5. Bowl tie ins are better than the AACs

Liabilities for a merge
1. Comcast owed 70m
2. Holiday bowl owed because of UCLA
3. Not enough west coast schools. The closest schools are Tulsa and Wichita to the P4 schools.

What needs to happen for Mike Aresco:

Work with ESPN on a plan.

1. Get them to fight to maintain the A5 status past 2025.

2. Get them to buy the PAC network for pennies on a dollar and do the production for the PAC.

3. Raid the MWC and Sun Belt for 2025. Hard to raid MAC because their GORs are a bitch like the ACC. These schools would love to join but they need assurance that the A5 status will remain throughout the duration of the contract to 2031. Teams that make sense: Fresno, Boise, Colorado State, UNLV, SDSU, GA State, Marshall, Louisiana. Grab UCONN and Gonzaga to make ESPN happy as hell. Even look at schools like Pepperdine and UC Davis. While Hawaii is a bad idea for the legit PAC, for this PAC, gives them another time zone for ad buys and more content. Schools like Pepperdine or Loyola Marymount for non Football gives you a presence in LA. Covers mostly every major market and with A5 status, everyone benefits.

Fight like hell to keep A5 status.

It's critical to ESPN to have an A5 conference that they are paying pennies on the dollar.

While 100m in debt is a lot. I believe the upside is significant for the AAC to make the investment but they need ESPN and Mike is probably the best Commissioner in CFB. He has to work his magic on this one. If he does. He would make ESPN life a lot easier.

While having a conference with 24-28 schools is less than ideal. It might be the best chance. Everyone else is around 16-18 that's A5 and you will need more schools especially from the west to join. Also, you need more Basketball powers. While UCONN won't join a G5 conference, they will if they can remain P5. My guess is 2026 is when a lot of these teams would be willing to join when they have a clearer picture that the conference retains its A5 status which is 90% of the value with the other 9.99 being the TV network, production, and equipment.
 
MtnBuff said:
Considering that the MWC was paying between $3-4 million per school they remain an option for cheap programming.

AAC has been paying close to $7 million per school. Question is will ESPN be willing to sweeten the pot enough to pay that much to eight additional schools.

Also a real question at this point if Stanford and Cal want to continue to try to compete at the highest level. I could easily see Stanford deciding to go the route of the Ivies and Cal following them.

Yes Cal has a huge stadium debt and both schools have some wealthy alums who want to see them continue at FBS but getting left out of the big media money doesn't help them in any way.
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Cal has too much debt and Stanford doesn't want to drop sports. I don't believe independent is an ideal choice for Stanford and it's not definitely not for Cal.
 
#1 pick said:
The AAC can only poach with A5 status. They need 100m to merge with the PAC. Their assets:
1. A5 status
2. TV production and equipment
3. Brand name
4. Stanford and Cal
5. Bowl tie ins are better than the AACs

Liabilities for a merge
1. Comcast owed 70m
2. Holiday bowl owed because of UCLA
3. Not enough west coast schools. The closest schools are Tulsa and Wichita to the P4 schools.

What needs to happen for Mike Aresco:

Work with ESPN on a plan.

1. Get them to fight to maintain the A5 status past 2025.

2. Get them to buy the PAC network for pennies on a dollar and do the production for the PAC.

3. Raid the MWC and Sun Belt for 2025. Hard to raid MAC because their GORs are a bitch like the ACC. These schools would love to join but they need assurance that the A5 status will remain throughout the duration of the contract to 2031. Teams that make sense: Fresno, Boise, Colorado State, UNLV, SDSU, GA State, Marshall, Louisiana. Grab UCONN and Gonzaga to make ESPN happy as hell. Even look at schools like Pepperdine and UC Davis. While Hawaii is a bad idea for the legit PAC, for this PAC, gives them another time zone for ad buys and more content. Schools like Pepperdine or Loyola Marymount for non Football gives you a presence in LA. Covers mostly every major market and with A5 status, everyone benefits.

Fight like hell to keep A5 status.

It's critical to ESPN to have an A5 conference that they are paying pennies on the dollar.

While 100m in debt is a lot. I believe the upside is significant for the AAC to make the investment but they need ESPN and Mike is probably the best Commissioner in CFB. He has to work his magic on this one. If he does. He would make ESPN life a lot easier.

While having a conference with 24-28 schools is less than ideal. It might be the best chance. Everyone else is around 16-18 that's A5 and you will need more schools especially from the west to join. Also, you need more Basketball powers. While UCONN won't join a G5 conference, they will if they can remain P5. My guess is 2026 is when a lot of these teams would be willing to join when they have a clearer picture that the conference retains its A5 status which is 90% of the value with the other 9.99 being the TV network, production, and equipment.
Click to expand...

The MWC is going to find itself on the same shaky ground that the PAC just exprienced in just a couple of years if not next year or right after the ACC gets cut to pieces. The AAC can wait on those MWC schools.

The AAC needs to try to get the P12's A5 charter or whatever it is. Could be done through a merger with the PAC-4 and might need to be done before the MWC can act. The AAC will win that battle in my eyes at this point.

Scary thought but if the PAC fell apart and the Big 12 didn't pick CU up, the AAC would have been where CU went not the MWC.

After the AAC raids the MWC, the MWC could go after the western C-USA schools such as UTEP, NMSU, and Sam Houston State. If not, NDSU and SoDSU will be the next targets out of the FCS ranks. The WAC still has their FBS charter as well.
 
CUAviator said:
A) agree we would have taken the deal if offered. But I am much happier where we are with a chance to actually win and make a name for ourselves (for however long it lasts) than to forever be the bottom feeder of the B1G.

2) Vinyl records are making a crazy comeback. we have a record player and my kids ask for vinyl as presents all the time.

d) Music tours are still nuts. Ask any Swiftie.
Click to expand...
Vinyl is making a comeback but it's a niche, the money is in streaming and concerts.

The music tours are absolutely crazy, as you mentioned try to get tickets for the top ones.

I can remember in Vancouver BC seeing Fleetwood Mac, Joe Walsh, Heart, and 3-4 other headliners in a stadium show for about $15. At that time it was all about promoting records.

Now we have groups that haven't put out any notable music in 25+ years selling tickets for hundreds of dollars per seat, and those tickets getting flipped by a scalper for double or triple.
 
PAC MAN said:
The MWC is going to find itself on the same shaky ground that the PAC just exprienced in just a couple of years if not next year or right after the ACC gets cut to pieces. The AAC can wait on those MWC schools.

The AAC needs to try to get the P12's A5 charter or whatever it is. Could be done through a merger with the PAC-4 and might need to be done before the MWC can act. The AAC will win that battle in my eyes at this point.

Scary thought but if the PAC fell apart and the Big 12 didn't pick CU up, the AAC would have been where CU went not the MWC.

After the AAC raids the MWC, the MWC could go after the western C-USA schools such as UTEP, NMSU, and Sam Houston State. If not, NDSU and SoDSU will be the next targets out of the FCS ranks. The WAC still has their FBS charter as well.
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The PAC schools really don't have much value. I was told 15 mil on high end and that's if linked with attractive brands which aren't out there right now. Their brands are all worth 40 mil combined. They were never getting into the B1G. A case for Stanford in the B12 but not Cal and Stanford doesn't want to go to the B12.

The value is mainly PAC A5 status and their TV network which could be brought by ESPN for pennies on a dollar.

Rumor is UCONN and Oregon State is going to the B12 so the P4 could go to P3.

I did get info that Comcast debt still has to be paid by the previous schools in during that time so that could be a coup for any conference that wants to merge.
 
Interesting take by Nate Silver here - especially with regards to Stanford and Cal. One of the big punchlines, which I'd agree with, is essentially the fan apathy towards college football here relative to other regions.https://www.natesilver.net/p/ok-so-whats-your-college-football

And the Pac-12 left itself vulnerable with mediocre TV ratings. Over 2015-19, here’s how the various Pac-12 schools ranked in TV viewers per game among all college football programs:

  • USC — 16th
  • Stanford — 25th
  • Oregon — 26th
  • Washington — 28th
  • UCLA — 29th
  • Washington State — 39th
  • Utah — 41st
  • California — 47th
  • Arizona State — 50th
  • Colorado — 58th
  • Arizona — 62nd
  • Oregon State — 74th

...
The West has considerably lower overall college football avidity than the South or the Midwest, which lowers both the ceiling and the floor for TV ratings.
 
#1 pick said:
Cal has too much debt and Stanford doesn't want to drop sports. I don't believe independent is an ideal choice for Stanford and it's not definitely not for Cal.
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Cal and Stanford both have endowments that make the debt irrelevant if they choose to do so. Each also has mega wealth alumni who would financially support the athletic programs even if football revenues aren't an issue.

Neither "wants" to drop from FBS level football but neither would be overly bothered by it either, their identities aren't reliant on winning trophies.

Some of their supporters would welcome dropping top level football just as those at Harvard and Yale do.

Again this doesn't mean they would drop sports, the money is there for them to continue to compete in as many Olympic sports as they want. Could easily see them Going FCS in football and WCC in everything else.
 
#1 pick said:
The PAC schools really don't have much value. I was told 15 mil on high end and that's if linked with attractive brands which aren't out there right now. Their brands are all worth 40 mil combined. They were never getting into the B1G. A case for Stanford in the B12 but not Cal and Stanford doesn't want to go to the B12.

The value is mainly PAC A5 status and their TV network which could be brought by ESPN for pennies on a dollar.

Rumor is UCONN and Oregon State is going to the B12 so the P4 could go to P3.

I did get info that Comcast debt still has to be paid by the previous schools in during that time so that could be a coup for any conference that wants to merge.
Click to expand...

I guess those photos of empty bleachers did take a toll on the value of Stanford & Cal. Stanford tore down their old 85,000 seat stadium yet to see that they can't fill the 50,000 seat replacement. What amazes me is that 50K version was built for just $90M. I don't think this is just a Stanford program...just look at the SJSU stadium situation the last few years. I don't think the Bay Area is a good area for sports right now.

I never thought CU was going to be off the hook for that Comcast money but let's see how the P12N sale goes since each school owns a share in that network I believe.

OSU to the Big 12...I think they need to take WSU with them. Cal would probably be a better option. In that case, WSU to MWC and Stanford goes independent in football.
 
Buffnik said:
How come every conference is going toward divisionless but most tweets on the Big 12 alignment are people trying to divide it into 2 divisions? Did Yormark say something about this?
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It's what people are used to.

It doesn't matter anyway, divisions or pods or rivalry partners are all just scheduling tools now.
 
Buffnik said:
How come every conference is going toward divisionless but most tweets on the Big 12 alignment are people trying to divide it into 2 divisions? Did Yormark say something about this?
Click to expand...

I don't think BY has said anything about divisions going forward.
 
MtnBuff said:
Vinyl is making a comeback but it's a niche, the money is in streaming and concerts.

The music tours are absolutely crazy, as you mentioned try to get tickets for the top ones.

I can remember in Vancouver BC seeing Fleetwood Mac, Joe Walsh, Heart, and 3-4 other headliners in a stadium show for about $15. At that time it was all about promoting records.

Now we have groups that haven't put out any notable music in 25+ years selling tickets for hundreds of dollars per seat, and those tickets getting flipped by a scalper for double or triple.
Click to expand...
Yep. At least when I go see Metallica in a few weeks they’ll have out out an album this year (which, quite frankly, is better than anything they’ve done in decades).
side note, it’s a two day concert - Friday and Sunday. My daughter is meeting my son and me there. But the Sunday is the day before her first day of class, and my son doesn’t want to miss school on Monday, so looks like we won’t be seeing the second day of the concert (with Pantera opening).
 
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