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Official Buffs Dance Resume Thread
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
Went ahead and updated RPIs. Ended up being mostly a positive week for CU. Buffs are at #15 now and the Pac-12 is looking very strong (everyone other than Wazzu in the Top 100 -- and Wazzu moved up a lot). I decided to include the change from last week in the table, which should give everyone a better sense of the trends. Also, I switched to Live-RPI so that I could get the update in real time instead of waiting overnight.
BehindEnemyLines
beware the habu
Stupid goats
Depends on where we are in the voting this week. If the Buffs are just outside the Top 25 in the "others" camp, then going 2-0 this week with the expected losses of teams above us just might push us in based on record, momentum and lazy slotting. Personally, I wouldn't vote CU into my Top 25 unless the Buffs beat Penn State and SMU (or Kent State) next week.
If we beat SMU and PSU I expect top 20.
SMU is GOOD this year. They have wins over Stanford (by 15), TCU, and Michigan (by 24!)
Didn't we already beat SMU in the closed scrimmage? I know scrimmages are different animals than real games but thats gotta give the team some serious confidence.
This is correct.
scoob
Well-Known Member
As far as RPI goes, the UNC win actually helped our RPI by 1.48%. CSU went from a factor of +3.23% to +1.75% on our RPI and UNC improved their factor on our RPI from -7.59% to -4.63% (my possibly flawed iteration from rpiforecast.com)
We were probably kidding ourselves that CSU was going to be a top 100 win anyway.
Go Bears!
Thanks. Where it hurt our resume is it dropped CSU from being a Top 150 road win.
I think a bad loss is more than canceled out when you beat Kentucky and the Zags.
Nicholls got crushed at Grand Canyon.
As an early scouting report for the upcoming game:
Frye is a decent player and they do have a couple 7 footers, but this is about the worst offensive team in the nation. It would take a monumentally bad effort on both ends of the floor for the Buffs to be challenged on Friday night.
As an early scouting report for the upcoming game:
Frye is a decent player and they do have a couple 7 footers, but this is about the worst offensive team in the nation. It would take a monumentally bad effort on both ends of the floor for the Buffs to be challenged on Friday night.
320th in O Eff on KenPom. So yeah. Close.
Tuesday games we care about:
LA Lafayette at #22 UCLA (7:00, PACN)... Bruins should roll in this one.
Mercer at Auburn (7:00)... Mercer's 8-1, so no slouch. Keep an eye on this one.
DePaul at Stanford (8:00, FS1)... good little test for Furd. DePaul isn't good, but every now and then they do something like whip ASU on the road.
UC Irvine at Oregon (9:00, PACN)... UCI is a very good program. Dangerous game for the Ducks.
LA Lafayette at #22 UCLA (7:00, PACN)... Bruins should roll in this one.
Mercer at Auburn (7:00)... Mercer's 8-1, so no slouch. Keep an eye on this one.
DePaul at Stanford (8:00, FS1)... good little test for Furd. DePaul isn't good, but every now and then they do something like whip ASU on the road.
UC Irvine at Oregon (9:00, PACN)... UCI is a very good program. Dangerous game for the Ducks.
They'll be riding our RPI the rest of the season, like parasites.
jumped ship
Well-Known Member
Man ESPN really chaps my bum. Not one vote for CU in their power rankings and saying that SMU won't be challenged.
RPI hits aside, I think only Arizona could know how big it is to pull off a convincing W in Fort Collins. Too many times have I seen ASU upset a solid squad at home because it was their super bowl.
RPI hits aside, I think only Arizona could know how big it is to pull off a convincing W in Fort Collins. Too many times have I seen ASU upset a solid squad at home because it was their super bowl.
Attachments
wyobuff
Well-Known Member
I most certainly dont want to be that guy (And dont think it will happen to us) but last year, the road win CSU "earned" at coors they thought would help them out a bit come end of the year, and we tanked and most likely caused them to miss the NCAAs.
The way the post UNC presser went with shyatt, the state of the mtn west this year and the fact that they are csu all comes together (for me) to say that dont be shocked if at the end of the season, this win isnt worth much.
The way the post UNC presser went with shyatt, the state of the mtn west this year and the fact that they are csu all comes together (for me) to say that dont be shocked if at the end of the season, this win isnt worth much.
Big difference is that CU plays in the Pac-12, which has the 3rd best conference record this year and 11 teams in the Top 100. Buffs control their own destiny in a way that CSU can't. Sitting on the #15 RPI and just need to take care of business by getting to 20+ wins.
ShockerHoops
Well-Known Member
Buff bro's, hello! Just stopping by to pass on congratulations on a great start to your season. Whoopin' some asses!
I hope I'm wrong in my prognostication at this point, because I don't see you guys losing another one. Hope y'all start 12-1 instead.
I hope I'm wrong in my prognostication at this point, because I don't see you guys losing another one. Hope y'all start 12-1 instead.
scoob
Well-Known Member
Essentially tonight is RPI damage control. Nothing good can happen. If they all win, our RPI goes down a bit. If one team loses, it goes down more.
I was musing on the subject of RPI the other day (I have a long'ish commute and a wondering mind), specifically on CU's RPI (VT's is uninteresting this year). This caused me to spend a little time analyzing the Pac schedule (while my wife and I watch Gray's Anatomy "together").
As @Buffnik posted below and in the OP, RPI is 25% your opponent's opponent's (OO) record. This got me thinking about the next level of teams to root for, not just our opponents.
this is why, for RPI purposes, OOC wins by Pac12 teams should be the number one thing we root for. Not only are all of those teams are CU's opponents for ~50% of our schedule, they are also our opponents' opponents' for ~50% of the teams on our schedule.
After Pac 12 teams, rooting for our non-conf opponents makes the most sense. but not all non-conf opponents are created equal.
Weighted heaviest in RPI calculations, are teams we play that are also played by other Pac teams. My analysis says BYU is the only team that falls in that category by playing Utah as well. Actually, since CU plays UU twice in regular season, we can count BYU as showing up twice as our OO.
After our own opponents, the Buffs RPI is most helped by teams that show up multiple times on Pac12 schedules. My quick analysis shows:
4x:
UNLV - UCLA, Oregon, ASU, AU
Gonzaga - UW, WSU, AU, UCLA
UCSB - Cal, OSU, ASU, UW
3x
Long Beach St - UCLA, OU, AU
Boise St - AU (twice?), OU
2x
Kansas, Cal State LA, Witchita, SDSU, NW Christian, Monmouth, Rice, Savannah St, Idaho St, Valporiso, St Mary's (Cal), Cal State Northridge, Fresno St, Kentucky, Cal State Fullerton, Idaho, N. Arizona, Cal Poly, Texas, Sacramento St, Seattle
Realistically, if any of those Pac 12 teams show up on CU's schedule twice, those OO's count an additional time.
I should also note that all of this is about raw RPI; none of this applies to "wins over top 50/100/150 RPI teams", which is a different criteria for NCAA selection and seeding.
As @Buffnik posted below and in the OP, RPI is 25% your opponent's opponent's (OO) record. This got me thinking about the next level of teams to root for, not just our opponents.
this is why, for RPI purposes, OOC wins by Pac12 teams should be the number one thing we root for. Not only are all of those teams are CU's opponents for ~50% of our schedule, they are also our opponents' opponents' for ~50% of the teams on our schedule.
After Pac 12 teams, rooting for our non-conf opponents makes the most sense. but not all non-conf opponents are created equal.
Weighted heaviest in RPI calculations, are teams we play that are also played by other Pac teams. My analysis says BYU is the only team that falls in that category by playing Utah as well. Actually, since CU plays UU twice in regular season, we can count BYU as showing up twice as our OO.
After our own opponents, the Buffs RPI is most helped by teams that show up multiple times on Pac12 schedules. My quick analysis shows:
4x:
UNLV - UCLA, Oregon, ASU, AU
Gonzaga - UW, WSU, AU, UCLA
UCSB - Cal, OSU, ASU, UW
3x
Long Beach St - UCLA, OU, AU
Boise St - AU (twice?), OU
2x
Kansas, Cal State LA, Witchita, SDSU, NW Christian, Monmouth, Rice, Savannah St, Idaho St, Valporiso, St Mary's (Cal), Cal State Northridge, Fresno St, Kentucky, Cal State Fullerton, Idaho, N. Arizona, Cal Poly, Texas, Sacramento St, Seattle
Realistically, if any of those Pac 12 teams show up on CU's schedule twice, those OO's count an additional time.
I should also note that all of this is about raw RPI; none of this applies to "wins over top 50/100/150 RPI teams", which is a different criteria for NCAA selection and seeding.
Slurpeee
It's only a gambling problem if you don't win.
I love this this thread, in particular the daily posts from Buffnik and Cvillebuff. In fact those posts just motivated me to get off my butt and pay $20 for the a membership upgrade. I really appreciate both of your succinct daily posts/takes on the games du jour. It is precisely what my college-hoops-loving-brain-dead-ADD-ridden mind needs. Not sure where the $20 goes, but seems like I should be paying for this service in some way, shape or form. Tis way more valuable than most the other crap I subscribe to and never use (looking at you gym membership).
Don't know who you dudes are, but if I'm ever at the Dark Horse bar and hear someone refer to themselves a "Buffnick or Cvillebuff", drinks are on me.
scoob
Well-Known Member
You could root for them, but the overall effect on our RPI is really not material. There are 222 teams that will have some effect on CU's RPI by the end of the season (more once we play either Kent St or SMU).
Just root for your Hokies. They will affect our RPI by three hundredths of a percent, so each of their individual games are worth like nine ten-thousanths of a percent overall.
Go Hokies!
The money goes to paying for my membership. Thanks.
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