Would SMU bring up that pony to Boulder to get run over by Ralphie?
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Official realignment thread - SEC formally invites OU and Texas to join the conference in 2025
Would SMU bring up that pony to Boulder to get run over by Ralphie?
My analysis is separate from the sovereign immunity ideas - as BuffsNYC points out, no one would ever contract with a TX school if that theory holds actual water.
I'm just asking the question of "what does the GOR actually mean in terms of cold hard cash?"
When the distribution of funds from the GOR is asymmetric, and you're within a few years of the expiration of the GOR, and the schools that are leaving get a meaningfully bigger payout where they're jumping, the GOR is not much more than a minor nuisance.
At the end of the day, unless you have damages that cannot be measured in dollars, any court will settle your claim for the dollar value of your damages rather than require specific performance. And because there's a time limit, value, and defined distribution scheme, any "damages" are going to be very easy to quantify in dollar terms.
It's going to be hard for the other 8 schools to demonstrate money damages greater than their increased distributions from what is remaining of the current Big12 media deals.
And to the extent that they could prove damages, the dollar amount will be a trifle for OU, UT & the SEC to cover.
So no, in this instance, the GOR is worth about the paper it was printed on.
Sure, in the first few years of a long term deal, a GOR is probably equivalent to handcuffs. But as the end of the term nears, it's more of a request to hang around rather than a requirement.
What drove expansion to 12 was the conference championship game.
What drove the next round (some to 14) was cable tv carriage deals. Big drawback here was unbalanced scheduling.
What probably drives this round is: compelling matchups and large base (alumni, home market, national prestige) for streaming along with, potentially, 16-team conferences opening up 2 very valuable semi-final round games as part of the conference championship media package. Plus perfectly balanced 9-game scheduling that protect/build regional rivalries if scheduling pods utilized.
Thank you good Manhattan, I'm a lucky fella and hit the jackpot
TCU, Okie Lite, Houston, SMU, TTU, Baylor, are all programs I’d be interested in taking a deeper dive into adding. All have had success, some in both FB and MBB, and all would at least be an attempt for the Pac 12 to solidify a strong Texas presence and obviously get into the CTZ.
New Mexico, UNLV, SDSU, do nothing for the conference to gain any competitive advantage whatsoever.
As I said, there are no good options, but trying to add multiple programs, possibly multiple current P5 programs, in all important Texas, would be the best bad option.
Hrmmm..... You obviously never met my smu regret.
It wasn't the "aww I wish it would have worked out" regret, but more of the I regretted it when I woke up...
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ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Adding Mountain West schools is addition for addition's sake. Moving into Texas is some way, shape, or form is smart (ideally involving a couple leftover Big 12 schools and Houston)-and it also helps CU.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
What about Tech, Okie Lite, and the Metroplex schools?
What about them? I included them in my post
Boy that would light the world on fire.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
As the four additions.
Agree…Ohio, PA, New Jersey, DC suck as far as recruiting goes.
I'm just going to throw this out here. This would be a worst case scenario for CU and I seriously doubt that would happen.
Given the UC system in California's refusal to admit any CSU school into the PAC, this could be an opportunity for UA-ASU-CU-UU to play some hardball with the UC schools if the UC schools really want to go the Pac-8 route. There are a little over 16 million people in AZ-CO-UT so that is a significant number not to mention PHX-SLC-DEN as major media markets. Suppose that doesn't work out and the Mountain Four needs to find a new home plus the B1G isn't interested, how could a return to the Big 12 look like?
West: SDSU, UNLV, ASU, UA, UU, and CU. You could choose between Boise State, BYU, CSU, and UNM for that seventh spot. They can do a blood bowl tourney and last one standing gets the last spot. Realistically I think BSU would get that one.
East: ISU, KU, KSU, OSU, TT, BU, and TCU. WVU would go to the ACC or AAC in this case and the Big 12 would waive any exit fee as a gesture of goodwill.
No promises with TV money but I think that new Big 14 would easily get a bigger media rights deal than the American Athletic Conference. The football would be still respectable and @Buffnik might love the potential of basketball in that conference.
Is the SWC trademark and name still available?
Given the UC system in California's refusal to admit any CSU school into the PAC, this could be an opportunity for UA-ASU-CU-UU to play some hardball with the UC schools if the UC schools really want to go the Pac-8 route. There are a little over 16 million people in AZ-CO-UT so that is a significant number not to mention PHX-SLC-DEN as major media markets. Suppose that doesn't work out and the Mountain Four needs to find a new home plus the B1G isn't interested, how could a return to the Big 12 look like?
West: SDSU, UNLV, ASU, UA, UU, and CU. You could choose between Boise State, BYU, CSU, and UNM for that seventh spot. They can do a blood bowl tourney and last one standing gets the last spot. Realistically I think BSU would get that one.
East: ISU, KU, KSU, OSU, TT, BU, and TCU. WVU would go to the ACC or AAC in this case and the Big 12 would waive any exit fee as a gesture of goodwill.
No promises with TV money but I think that new Big 14 would easily get a bigger media rights deal than the American Athletic Conference. The football would be still respectable and @Buffnik might love the potential of basketball in that conference.
Is the SWC trademark and name still available?
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
That's why we're playing Houston, TCU, SMU, North Texas, and Oklahoma State, guys. We have those opportunities because we have an AD who was smart enough to tell little brother its 4-6 games a decade or nothing.
I've seen a lot of arguments against the B1G that involve Nebraska's struggles. That argument doesn't work in my view-and its because of the way they schedule. Its always one power 5 game OOC (Us, Oklahoma, Us again) and two buy games (Fordham, Buffalo, North Dakota, and Georgia Southern). We schedule differently-We're playing two power 5s OOC the next three years.
We also aren’t in ****ing Lincoln Nebraska.
Texas kids love Colorado and as long as we have Texas schools on the calendar we will still attract talent from there.
Insiders Predict Arkansas Will Be 1 of 4 SEC Teams Needed to Block Entry of Texas and Oklahoma
Why Arkansas is expected to join Texas A&M in blocking Texas and Oklahoma's bid to join the SEC and form the nation's first superconference.
www.bestofarkansassports.com
Arkansas might be the third out of four blocking votes along with A&M and Mizzou.
The razorbacks hate Texas. For good reason. But I'd still be surprised if they turned down the money
Assuming we stay put, I'd want TCU and Houston for sure, recruiting reasons. The others, I flat don't know. Not going to go through them all, they've all been mentioned, maybe Utah State hasn't, idk. If U$C, UCLA, decide to bolt, then what?
That hate goes back a long ass time, too. I'd be surprised about the money part. Money talks, bull**** walks.
I could see Arkansas, Mizzou, A&M and LSU as possible no votes in theory but doubt all needed end up doing so in fear of what it would look like in their future standing in the SEC.
It’s like looking at national recruiting rankings vs conference rankings when you are in the SEC. Yes we have a top 30 class but we are also second to last in our division. Yes Arkansas makes more money than the rest of the country but that doesn’t matter when your whole conference makes the same amount. They just spend the money on stupid **** anyways.
The final vote will likely be 14-0. At least publicly
The Pac12 can't limit themselves with AAU and academic requirements if they want to remain one of the power 4 conferences that will likely be left. There's no schools left in the Mtn or Pacific timezones that are worth talking to (except maybe BYU, who is at the very least worth having a discussion with). That leaves Oklahoma State and the Texas schools to get into that state for recruiting and also into the CTZ as has been mentioned.
Can the Pac12 move forward as a power conference in football without expanding? Sure, as long as USC and another high-profile school doesn't bolt. But they will only get 1 team into the expanded playoff most years and the vast majority of the national attention will be elsewhere, just like it is now. Which will continue to result in a much lower TV contract and the cycle continues.
And neither does their academic standing.
I would take Rice, Texas Tech, OSU, and Houston. If I was being selfish about CU's bowl chances, I would take UNM, UNT, UTEP, and UNLVAs expected:
Report: Iowa State and Kansas are talking to the Big Ten
The losers of this whole debacle are the other eight Big 12 schools. At least two schools are being proactive, reaching out to the Big Ten.longhornswire.usatoday.com
Simplest way this rolls is:
SEC to 16 thru OU & UT
B1G to 16 thru ISU & KU
ACC to 15/16 thru WVU & sorta ND a member
That leaves the B12 with BU, TTU, TCU, OSU and KSU.
That also leaves the most valuable non-Power Conference schools as UCF, Houston, BYU, USF, SMU, Temple, USF, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Memphis and Boise State. Drops off from there with service academies, lack of national profile/market, lack of facilities, lack of size/resources and/or big schools too late to the party.
I'm not sure what the Pac-12 should do.
But if it does anything, I'd be shocked if it allowed any university that isn't currently D1A in football, isn't at least Carnegie Tier 1 on research intensity or any university East of the I-35 corridor states.
Here's the list of remaining Big 12 and non-Power Conference schools that would fit that profile if things break the simple way I started this post with for the SEC, B1G and ACC:
Colorado State
Hawaii
Houston
Kansas State
Nevada - Las Vegas
Nevada - Reno
New Mexico
North Texas
Oklahoma State
Rice
Texas - El Paso
Texas Tech
If you had to pick from the above 12 schools, which 4 would you take?