As I said above, I think we might be heading for a SEC monopoly within the next ten years and I assume they’d rather be in than out. A duopoly is inevitable.
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Official realignment thread - SEC formally invites OU and Texas to join the conference in 2025
As I said above, I think we might be heading for a SEC monopoly within the next ten years and I assume they’d rather be in than out. A duopoly is inevitable.
If the Big 10 were to add Notre Dame, USC, UCLA, and Oregon (just as a hypothetical), Fox will throw the money at them.
I see no scenario where the power players in the north/Midwest are left out of the future of CFB. tOSU, Mich, and the B1G realize this (I’d throw ND in here too), I’m sure. It’s in their best interest to not join at the hip of the SEC. They’d be much better off looking after their own self interests. Just my opinion.
Let’s just put it this way - if KU ends up in the BIG, and we just stay in the Pac-12, imma be pissed.
Literally?
Iowa State, as a no-brainer. AAU. Built in rival with Iowa. Already in the same state as a prominent current member. Solid FB program. Athletic Dept is embroiled in scandal.
When this all washes out, and it may take a few years to get there, we will see a superconference or league or association or whatever you want to call it that will leave the rest of the NCAA behind and be essentially a college based pro sports league.
It will be based around what had been the SEC but will include the highest revenue, highest audience appeal programs. The rest will be left out to figure out their futures.
Who will be in? Most of the current SEC, Most of the current B1G, the top of the other three current P5 conferences including UT and OU from the B12, Clemson, FSU, and maybe 4-6 others from the ACC. Out of the PAC you will see USC, Washington, Oregon, and probably Stanford and/or UCLA. Add in ND and potentially a couple others who are willing to step up to the plate and make the financial commitment to playing in the new era and that will be the top level of college football.
They will take the lions share of the TV and media money and attention. Everyone else who wants to continue playing will be forced to deal with a downscaled revenue stream and less attention.
By creating a new organization instead of just extending the existing ones they will be able break from the financial obligations of the old NCAA and their conferences, they will simply not invite former conference members who don't meet the standards or revenue potential they desire. This will also allow them to make their own rules without worrying about the rest of the college programs approving.
The focus will be on the South and the Midwest where college football interest is the strongest but having programs on the West Coast and towards the Northeast will allow them to maintain a national appeal for the TV networks and advertisers.
You could make an argument that CU would fit into this who picture based on being one of the top 40 programs in terms of revenue, of being a known name nationally and a former power, and of providing a TV draw in the Rocky Mountain time zone much like the Broncos do for the NFL (and when the Broncos are at least decent they generate very good ratings.)
It wouldn't surprise me in the least though if CU is left on the outside looking in because of a clear lack of commitment to athletics. As I mentioned earlier our frequent appearances on the PAC12 Mtn schedule instead of in the national network time slots says a great deal about our national appeal as a program.
It will be based around what had been the SEC but will include the highest revenue, highest audience appeal programs. The rest will be left out to figure out their futures.
Who will be in? Most of the current SEC, Most of the current B1G, the top of the other three current P5 conferences including UT and OU from the B12, Clemson, FSU, and maybe 4-6 others from the ACC. Out of the PAC you will see USC, Washington, Oregon, and probably Stanford and/or UCLA. Add in ND and potentially a couple others who are willing to step up to the plate and make the financial commitment to playing in the new era and that will be the top level of college football.
They will take the lions share of the TV and media money and attention. Everyone else who wants to continue playing will be forced to deal with a downscaled revenue stream and less attention.
By creating a new organization instead of just extending the existing ones they will be able break from the financial obligations of the old NCAA and their conferences, they will simply not invite former conference members who don't meet the standards or revenue potential they desire. This will also allow them to make their own rules without worrying about the rest of the college programs approving.
The focus will be on the South and the Midwest where college football interest is the strongest but having programs on the West Coast and towards the Northeast will allow them to maintain a national appeal for the TV networks and advertisers.
You could make an argument that CU would fit into this who picture based on being one of the top 40 programs in terms of revenue, of being a known name nationally and a former power, and of providing a TV draw in the Rocky Mountain time zone much like the Broncos do for the NFL (and when the Broncos are at least decent they generate very good ratings.)
It wouldn't surprise me in the least though if CU is left on the outside looking in because of a clear lack of commitment to athletics. As I mentioned earlier our frequent appearances on the PAC12 Mtn schedule instead of in the national network time slots says a great deal about our national appeal as a program.
I'm having a really hard squaring your first sentence with your second.
Those are mutually exclusive outcomes, but you seem certain both of them will happen?
Just got back this week from taking my daughter to visit Madison. Holy ****balls that place was awesome. Buuuut, we were also there in July, not Nov.
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Add at least at the beginning of the second sentence.
Yeah, we’re below UC Merced and Florida State for Fuq’s sake (in that ranking).
My first thought this morning is that we all need to be focused on the B1G reaction.
That conference has the most money, was the first to launch a network, has both ESPN and FOX behind it, and has been the most aggressive with expansion in the past. It also has been the only conference that has previously considered the idea of expanding to as many as 20 in comments by leaders.
If the SEC has actually meddled by taking "superconference" and trying to talk to Michigan & OSU, there's a chance at the following:
1. B1G poaches the SEC with offers to Missouri & Kentucky. (No GOR in the SEC).
That moves the conference to 16 while gaining MU-NU football rivalry, MU-Illini hoops rivalry & UK-Indiana hoops rivalry.
2. B1G is able to offer a 4-team package to the B12 to bring in KU, OU, ISU & UT to take the B1G to 20.
The B1G adds a bunch more rivalries (OU-NU in football, MU-KU in hoops, ISU-Iowa in everything, OU-UT in everything), and the conference pretty much maintains its culture of state land grant universities with AAU membership (only OU & UK fail to check both boxes).
B1G could them go East/West with:
East: Michigan, MSU, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, Ohio State, Kentucky, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland.
West: WI, MN, Iowa, Illinois, ISU, NU, KU, Mizzou, OU, UT.
Expect the Big Ten to get very aggressive now. Also, their new media deal is coming up first so they have the most impetus to increase value.
That conference has the most money, was the first to launch a network, has both ESPN and FOX behind it, and has been the most aggressive with expansion in the past. It also has been the only conference that has previously considered the idea of expanding to as many as 20 in comments by leaders.
If the SEC has actually meddled by taking "superconference" and trying to talk to Michigan & OSU, there's a chance at the following:
1. B1G poaches the SEC with offers to Missouri & Kentucky. (No GOR in the SEC).
That moves the conference to 16 while gaining MU-NU football rivalry, MU-Illini hoops rivalry & UK-Indiana hoops rivalry.
2. B1G is able to offer a 4-team package to the B12 to bring in KU, OU, ISU & UT to take the B1G to 20.
The B1G adds a bunch more rivalries (OU-NU in football, MU-KU in hoops, ISU-Iowa in everything, OU-UT in everything), and the conference pretty much maintains its culture of state land grant universities with AAU membership (only OU & UK fail to check both boxes).
B1G could them go East/West with:
East: Michigan, MSU, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, Ohio State, Kentucky, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland.
West: WI, MN, Iowa, Illinois, ISU, NU, KU, Mizzou, OU, UT.
Expect the Big Ten to get very aggressive now. Also, their new media deal is coming up first so they have the most impetus to increase value.
IDK why all this talk about USC wanting to change / upgrade. They haven't been significantly relevant for awhile and don't appear to be doing things to change their path, e.g., keeping Helton as coach. I like Bohn, but he's not going to take them to another level as AD. It's not the Pac-12 that's really holding them back.
Can Oklahoma vote ”No” on Texas?
Insiders Predict Arkansas Will Be 1 of 4 SEC Teams Needed to Block Entry of Texas and Oklahoma
Why Arkansas is expected to join Texas A&M in blocking Texas and Oklahoma's bid to join the SEC and form the nation's first superconference.www.bestofarkansassports.com
Arkansas might be the third out of four blocking votes along with A&M and Mizzou.
A lot of focus on hoops here when it’s largely irrelevant in the grand revenue scheme.
Because while the results on the field haven't shown it they don't see themselves as being anything other than one of the elite programs in the nation.
More importantly they have some boosters with very big wallets who won't settle for them becoming a "second tier" school in anything that is publicly viewed. If the administrators (not just athletic administrators) want to keep their jobs they will find a way not to be left behind.
At the same time U$C has a huge following on the West Coast and nationally. And don't discount that if this super league comes to pass the revenue potential for the schools involved is likely to mean tens of millions of dollars per year in difference over the schools left behind.
And un-Texas like
Good post. Thanks.
Seriously though, Ark or A&M should suggest they vote on the schools individually….then just suggest in alphabetical order. Then…oops, OU is a member, they vote NO, along with a few other schools. Now OU is in, UT is out. Every has good chuckle.
Let’s just say for argument‘s sake that this works and they block UT from leaving.
A) Does OU still try to get out?
2) What actually happens to the Big XII after UT tried to stab them in the face? Does it crumble anyway? Do other teams try to find a way out?
Ideally:
KU & ISU to Big Ten
Baylor & Miami (or FSU) to SEC
WVU & UCF (plus ND) to ACC
OU, UT, OSU & TTU to P12
We get one hell of a regional & power-balanced Power Four conferences of 64 teams.
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I don’t think it’s accurate, but when they added FSU to that list, it made me laugh. How are they even remotely in the class of the other 3?
Somebody needs to tell them that they currently lack a quorum in the legislature, and there's zero chance they'll get a quorum before the conference change goes down.
If people aren't following politics at all right now: it is literally impossible for the Texas legislature to pass anything at the moment.
Except covid...
And gun stuff.
Football is easily as important as those two down there, so yes, I expect something to get done quickly