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Pac-12 Bubble Watch Comparison

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by jgisland, Feb 5, 2012.

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How Many PAC-12 Teams Make The Tourney?

  1. 1

    3 vote(s)
    4.5%
  2. 2

    50 vote(s)
    75.8%
  3. 3

    13 vote(s)
    19.7%
  1. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    There has been a lot of talk on here recently about CU's tourney chances, I think we can all agree that the P12 will most likely get no more than 1 at-large bid. So how CU compares to the other P12 teams is vitally important.

    Spurred by this post on rushthecourt.net I put together a "Pac12 Bubble Watch" comparison. I will try to update this after the Saturday games each weekend throughout the rest of the season.

    A couple of things to note -
    -Only Division 1 games count, so when you tell me CU's win % is better 70% I will point you back to this where I am telling you that the Ft. Lewis game and the New Orleans game don't count towards their RPI.
    - The RPI Forecast is taken from rpiforecast.com, I used the RPI forecast that includes the conf tourney's. They have CU forecast to end up at 19-11, (they are 14-7 now, remember DII games don't count). So that means with 7 conf games remaining they are projecting CU to play in 2 conf tourney games. Going 4-3 in regular season play and going 1-1 in the tourney. This is better than KenPom.com has CU projected, he has them 3-4 only winning against Utah, ASU and Stanford.
    - A couple of the "bad losses" P12 teams had against out of conf opponents early on don't look so bad now. Specifically UW's loss to South Dakota St who possess a RPI of 57 and UCLA's loss to Loyola Marymount who now has an RPI of 114.

    TeamWin %RPISoSRPI ProjectionKenPomRPI Proj + KPQualtiy Wins (RPI 1-100)Bad Losses (RPI 150+)
    California0.764793321547NoneWSU
    Washington0.66666775767975154Oregon, Stanford, ArizonaNone
    Arizona0.6857648140121CaliforniaNone
    Oregon0.70833367947590165Nebraska, Stanford, ArizonaNone
    Colorado0.63636474727777154Washington, Arizona, OregonNone
    Stanford0.6666671001269561156CSU, NC State,CUNone
    Oregon St.0.60869613617212487211California, Texas, OregonIdaho, ASU
    UCLA0.5652171168210848156Arizona, CUNone
    WSU0.521739150137153114267California, StanfordUC Riverside , Utah, ASU
    ASU0.333333226111250242492None6 Losses to +150 RPI Teams
    USC0.2422757239213452TCUCal Poly, ASU
    Utah0.17391327381274305579None5 Losses to +150 RPI Teams
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2012
  2. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    Wow the pac12 is bad. We would be no better than 8th in the big 12 right now
     
  3. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    ymssr
     
  4. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    Wow, we really need to beat Cal at home. Badly.

    A sweep this week would be a good start.
     
  5. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Great post.

    CU is 72nd according to the most recent RPI update I saw. Arizona is 65th.
    Others of note: Cal 48th, Washington 75th, Oregon 84th

    liverpi.com has CU finishing 20-10 (12-6)
     
  6. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    Ya for some reason we are projected to lose to OSU...
     
  7. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    I used realtimerpi.com for my current rpi's, they haven't updated it yet through last night's late games. So I am sure you are right CU is higher than 81.
     
  8. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    Here is my take on what CU needs to do to get in:

    UW, Arizona and Oregon all possess higher RPI's than CU but CU has beat them all at home. CU needs to absolutely win either the road Arizona or Oregon game, they need to sweep 1 of these teams. CU doesn't play UW again and UW stocked up on home games early in the season (as did CU). UW only has 2 more home games, we need UW to pick up some road losses to jump ahead of them. CU then needs to bascially win out figuring they lose either to Oregon or Arizona on the road, that means home wins against CAL and Stanford, finishing 20-7. Then comes the conf tourney, figuring the above happens CU will get a first round bye, if they get 2 wins in the tourney that gets them to 22 wins and into the P12 champ game and I belive that gets CU in.
     
  9. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    If we're talking about past recent years when the Big XII has been loaded, yes. This year, Mizzou, KU and Baylor are obviously loaded, but there's a huge drop off after that. Iowa State is in 4th place.
     
  10. JimmyBuff

    JimmyBuff Well-Known Member

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    I think the Pac 12 will get 3 teams in. CU has a shot if they win at either Oregon or Arizona and do well in Pac 12 tourney.
     
  11. JimmyBuff

    JimmyBuff Well-Known Member

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    Actually think Washington will get in and wouldn't mind having them win out. It will help our RPI
     
  12. Nor Cal Buff

    Nor Cal Buff Well-Known Member

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    Unless I misunderstand the way RPI is calculated, we would want the schools we play twice to do well and the schools we play once to do poorly against those schools we play twice. So even though Washington is considered a quality win, from a pure RPI perspective we would want them to lose every game they play the rest of the way except for against Wazzu and the LA schools where we would be RPI neutral.
     
  13. GoBuffs!!

    GoBuffs!! Active Member

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    I think some could argue that we would be lucky to be 8th in the Big 12 right now. The Pac12 is pretty bad. But I have faith that in a few years the Pac12 will be much stronger than the Big 12.
     
  14. mattrob

    mattrob Club Member Club Member

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    I seem to remember a quality win for Cal a couple of weeks ago.
     
  15. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Have you watched Iowa State this year? They're not the same old Iowa State. They're still not a powerhouse, but that's a good team. I could see them making a tiny bit of noise in the tourney if they get decent matchups.
     
  16. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    we need to have a big road win. Most likely we will lose to both Oregon AND Arizona on the road, but they need to find a way to win one of those games if they want a shot. Since we usually play better on Thursday, I can't decide if going up against Arizona first is good or bad for us.
     
  17. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    Beyond the arc started their bubble talk today.


    PAC-12
    Locks: None | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, Washington

    Colorado (13-7 | 7-3) | RPI: 80 | SOS: 85 | – The Buffaloes have to stay with the Pac-12 leaders and probably win a regular-season title to earn an at-large bid. Georgia is Colorado’s best non-conference victory and that wont’ help much. The Buffs are just 2-6 vs. Top 100 teams and are 3-6 away from home.
     
  18. SECOBuffsFan

    SECOBuffsFan Active Member

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    I want to know who is on the selection committee...if Dan Beebe is still on it (even though he is no longer Big XII commish) we have NO shot
     
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  19. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    Very good point, but Beebe is out. Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione has replaced Beebe.
    [h=2][/h]
     
  20. JPinCO

    JPinCO VP of Quantified Self Club Member

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    The PAC-12 NIT (Not-Invited-Tournament) footprint is starting to look pretty big.
     
  21. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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  22. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Yup, loaded up on transfers. However I still maintain they are miles and miles behind the 'big 3'. CU could compete with ISU, KSU, Texas, etc.
     
  23. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    How to End Bubble Speculation

    Using RPI Forecast's projected end of season RPI & the CURRENT KenPom rankings, only two PAC-12 teams would make it. So here we go....

    TeamRPIKenPomTOTAL
    California402161
    Arizona7838116
    Washington7064134
    Stanford9060150
    UCLA10751158
    Colorado7684160
    Oregon St11377190
    Oregon89107196
    Washington St164120284
    Arizona St240221461
    USC232202434
    Utah274312586
     
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  24. GoBuffs!!

    GoBuffs!! Active Member

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    Even if we win out, and make it to the championship game, I think its hard to say we will make it in as a At-Large team. We need to win the PAC-12 Tournament, or go to the NIT, simple as that.

    Keep in mind, I have not seen any reason to think that CU cannot have a fairly good chance at winning the PAC 12 tournament, its not like the Big 12 was.
     
  25. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Theoretically, winning out and making the championship game would put us at 25-8 (15-3). We would undoubtedly get in in that scenario. Unquestionably. Now, that's not going to happen, so we needn't worry.
     
  26. Bone Buff

    Bone Buff Well-Known Member

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    Valid question, how many PAC 12 teams get in? I somewhat doubt we're a 1 bid conference, but does the tourney take 2 or 3?
     
  27. dio

    dio Admin Club Member Junta Member

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    everything i've heard is a 2-bid league this year
     
  28. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Surest way for it to be a 2 bid league is for someone other than Cal to get the automatic bid. Cal is in a good place right now with an RPI of 48 (Zona 65th, CU 72nd, Washington 75th). If one of CU/Zona/Washington doesn't kick some ass down the stretch, it's going to be iffy for a second bid if Cal takes the auto.
     
  29. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    One of the mods want to make this a poll question?
     
  30. BuffLuKe

    BuffLuKe Club Member Club Member

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    I wouldnt trust getting an at large unless we play really well down the stretch. Even then, Id be worried. **** it, win the tourney and leave no doubt.
     

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