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RPI Watch (Updated for 2/23 games)

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by Buffnik, Feb 19, 2012.

  1. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Status on 2/19:

    Pac-12

    #30 Cal (A-Loss)
    #54 Washington (H-Win)
    #66 Oregon (H-Win)
    #67 Arizona (H-Win / A-Loss)
    #75 Colorado
    #95 Stanford (A-Loss)
    #135 UCLA (N-Loss)
    #143 Oregon State (H-Win)
    #177 Washington State (H-Win)
    #236 Arizona State (H-Win / A-Win)
    #239 USC (A-Win)
    #277 Utah (H-Win / A-Win)

    OOC
    #15 Wichita State (N-Loss)
    #29 Colorado State (A-Loss)
    #86 Wyoming (H-Loss)
    #93 Maryland (N-Loss)
    #110 Georgia (H-Win)
    #153 Air Force (A-Win)
    #186 W Michigan (N-Win)
    #201 Fresno State (H-Win)
    #220 Cal State Bakersfield (H-Win)
    #250 Texas Southern (H-Win)

    Record: 16-8

    DII Non-RPI
    Ft Lewis (H-Win)
    New Orleans (H-Win)

    I don't see how this is a tournament resume no matter how I try to argue it. I'm actually worried that we can win our last 5 to be Pac-12 champs, win our first 2 games in the Pac-12 tourney to make the final, and then not get selected for the Dance if we lose in the finals to finish up at 25-9.
     
  2. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    We need a few teams to help us out. I think that if U dub cracks the top 50, and UCLA cracks the top 100 we may have a good enough resume. Assuming we beat Cal at home and U dub is in the top 50. That gives us two top 50 wins and with UCLA breaking through, no losses below 100. It wouldnt be a great resume, but it might be good enough. I am hoping though that it doesnt even matter and we win the conference tourney
     
  3. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    I'm seeing the same thing you are.

    Our early season OOC losses are going to kill us in this deal. If we had won two out of Wichita, CSU, Wyo, Maryland we would be pretty solid. One of those four would make us marginal, all four losses and NIT here we come again.

    The bad ones were CSU who has no size inside and Wyo which was a bad home loss where we just didn't play to our abilities.
     
  4. neil29fp

    neil29fp Club Member Club Member

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    Why is the UCLA loss considered to be played at a neutral site? I know their pavilion is being renovated, but that seems silly to call that a neutral site game.
     
  5. shang

    shang Member

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    agreed...the losses to wichita and csu, not so bad, but the losses to wyo and maryland are killers.... for them to get to the pac12 finals and lose...could be a repeat of last year...
     
  6. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    I don't know why they're doing it that way. But think about how over-inflated UCLA's RPI actually is by getting RPI credit for Neutral wins/losses for all their home games. If those are marked as home games, their RPI probably drops to the Washington State range.
     
  7. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    Agree on Wichita, a solid team that beats a lot of good schools. The CSU game we lost by 1 point! A single play and it is in the win column. Maryland is one we could have won but they are a program that is used to winning games against schools like CU in nuetral sites.

    I like how Tad's teams tend to peak near the end of the year, bodes well for when we start getting to the tourney every year. Now we just have to stop digging these holes at the start of the year that are hard to climb out of with bad losses.
     
  8. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    Getting to the first round of the dance would be absolutely huge for the team next year. Even if it is the play in round. Having been there, puts a lot of confidence into these guys. Would change the whole mentality for next year I think. I am hopeful, but as you guys point out, most likely an NIT resume at this point.
     
  9. rynobuff

    rynobuff Club Member Club Member

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    No, no, no you have it all wrong. We don't want to go to a post season tourney so the guys can hit the weight room quicker.
     
  10. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    Wrong font
     
  11. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    Yup, unfortunately there's nothing there that will even remotely impress the committee. :huh:
     
  12. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    Except when we win the mother****ing Pac 12 then they have no choice!
     
  13. JPinCO

    JPinCO VP of Quantified Self Club Member

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    I think that the PAC-12 has such a bad perception around the country (NCAA Selection Committee included), and the mid-major love is so high based on the past few years' performance, that it's likely they'll only take the Conference Champion this year. Let's also not forget the traditional East Coast bias. The intra-league victories are going to look hollow, because even the top teams (Cal, WA, CU) haven't really beat anyone, nor will they before Selection Sunday.

    My opinion: If Washington wins the conference tourney, they should be the only one dancing. Cal got pummeled by UNLV and Mizzou & beat no one of consequence. Their RPI is a farce and I think the selection committee should acknowledge that - especially if Cal gets bounced anywhere outside of the Conference Final. If Cal wins, Washington should have a shot because they kept their games with ranked opponents (Duke, Marquette) close.

    BUT- the Committee will see it differently. I think they take only Cal if they win it, and probably Cal + the Conference Champion as long as Cal wins at least 1 game in the Tourney.

    I think we have to win the tourney to get in, unfortunately. If we win out, beat WA and AZ in the P12 Tourney and lose in triple OT to Cal in the Final.....maybe then we get in.
     
  14. PhillyBuff

    PhillyBuff Club Member Club Member

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    ahh... so u dont think double overtime will do it huh?
     
  15. DesertDawg526

    DesertDawg526 Resident Dawg Club Member

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    I really think we'll see at least two teams get in, and here's why...

    The only way we have one team is if Cal outright wins the conference title with no co-champion and Cal wins the tourney. If this happens we may only have one team.

    But, the conference auto-bid goes to the tourney winner. There is a very good chance that the tourney winner could be different than the regular-season conference champion.

    As bad as the perception of the Pac is, I do not see any way that the regular season conference champion does not go. Imagine if the Big East or Big X conference champion was left out.... granted, we're not as strong a conference currently but I have a really hard time seeing the conference winner of a BCS conference being left out (in the event the conference champion does not win the tournament). It wouldn't even matter if the conference champion was bounced in their first tourney game IMO...

    What would complicate things further is if we have regular season conference co-champions. This could happen in many scenarios and realistically include a 2 or 3 way tie. Let's say Cal, UW and CU end in a 3 way tie for conference co-champions. Let's further say UW plays CU in the championship game of the tourney, with one of the teams bouncing Cal after they get a tourney win. Would the selection committee leave out Cal? Despite being conference co-champion. We could see up to three teams I think with this type of scenario.

    Either way this next two weeks of basketball should be fantastic to watch with so much on the line:nod:
     
  16. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Two teams will get in.

    Up to 73 in the RPI :lol:. If it makes us feel better, Cincinnati is being talked about as a contender with an RPI of 85th
     
  17. SECOBuffsFan

    SECOBuffsFan Active Member

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    But Cincy in Big East where some analyst make the argument all 16 should get in
     
  18. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    I hope you're not even trying to remotely trying to compare the Pac to the Big 10 or the Big East....
     
  19. DesertDawg526

    DesertDawg526 Resident Dawg Club Member

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    No. Read my post. Right now the Pac is as bad as it's ever been. But I don't think the selection committee would leave out the regular-season conference winner of a BCS conference period (essentially my point).

    One thing of note is that the Pac is as good as any conference at putting guys into the NBA over the past 10, 20 or 30 years... We're down right now but we'll be on a huge upswing over the next few years at the rate talent is coming into the conference.
     
  20. buff4bcs1985

    buff4bcs1985 Hail to the King

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    did the afa sdsu game give us a huge bump?
     
  21. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    No. It's a small bump. We need AFA to get into the top 150 and this put them close. The selection sheets the committee looks at breaks down game results against the top 50, 51-100, 101-150, etc. The more teams that can bump up into the next grouping, the better. That AFA win moved them way up to just outside the top 150. We want that road win to look as good as possible.
     
    jgisland likes this.
  22. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    Doesn't matter that the Pac is a BCS conference, it sucks this year. The MWC, with two-thirds as many teams, will get more teams in. The A-10 will get as many teams in as the Pac.
     
  23. buff4bcs1985

    buff4bcs1985 Hail to the King

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    do you think us getting screwed last year helps us with the committee if we are on the bubble?
     
  24. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Yeah, but the Big 6 conferences pay the bills and generate the ratings. Relations with the NCAA are strained enough as it is. They better not leave out a regular season champ.
     
  25. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    No. See Virginia Tech.

    Regardless, it shouldn't matter.
     
  26. DesertDawg526

    DesertDawg526 Resident Dawg Club Member

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    +1

    This is all I'm essentially saying. I don't care how bad the conference is right now... I will be shocked if the Pac-12 champion is left out of the dance.

    It could happen, but I sincerely doubt the selection committee will go down that road... unless there is a 3-way tie for 1st (the only scenario I can see where a Pac-12 co-champion could be left out - even then it's iffy to leave a conference co-champion of a BCS conference out).
     
  27. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    I do agree that the regular season Pac-12 champ will get in. But in the end I don't think more than 2 teams get in.
     
  28. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    If pac 12 regular season champ and tourney champ are the same team, I think we may be a one bid league. The top two or three really have to show well these next two weeks.
     
  29. SECOBuffsFan

    SECOBuffsFan Active Member

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    I believe 3 from Pac 12 get in
     
  30. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    If you do it based on who deserves to get in the PAC is in trouble as a one or maybe two bid conference. As much as they try to make it seem like it is based on what happens on the floor though we know full well that the NCAA is all about pleasing their "Network Partners" and "Corporate Sponsors."

    What this means it that if there is any way they can justify it they will try to get 3 PAC teams in the bracket. From the west coast they will have the St. Mary's and the Gonzagas, etc. but when it comes to TV appeal the PAC schools are the names that get interest on the schedule and this will not be ignored. They are not willing to sacrifice 1/2 the country when their revenues can change significantly based on 1/10 of a rating point.

    The PAC still has to cooperate. They have to provide some teams that can at least justify an argument for inclusion in the bracket. If they continue to knock each other off the top and the only team with a decent record in the end in the Conference champ and tourney champ then 1 team could happen. If a couple of teams can step up at the end, even if they don't win the tourney but justify an arguement about "hot at the right time" and "finishing strong" then three is very likely. The money will make it so.
     

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