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2018 Season Prediction Thread

How many wins this year?

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  • 6

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Results are only viewable after voting.
Bread said:
I just have to hear your full thought process here. In my mind just running through position groups:

QB: Edge CU
RB: as of now, edge Nubs
Wr: do I even need to state it? Edge Buffs
Corners: Edge Buffs
Safeties: Edge Buffs
Inside backers: Edge Buffs
Outside backers: tie/ Leaning towards edge Nubs unless our main 2 end up being Lewis/Taylor with Landman inside. Then edge Buffs
D-line: Edge Nubs
O-line: Edge Nubs
Special teams: Edge Buffs

So just right there it’s 6-4/7-3 Buffs. I very much understand that the lines are the most important part of a team, but by no means do I think they are more talented overall just because they have a better LOS situation right now. I just want to hear your thoughts on why they are more talented because I just don’t see it
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Fair.

I was going on Phil Steele rankings, supplemented by these recruiting rankings (NU listed first):

2017: 20-32
2016: 24-65
2015: 31- 70
2014: 32-63
2013: 17-67

My thesis being that NU is not void of talent. Issue was softness, development and bad HC fit. I also have a qualitative edge to NU HC staff.

My data do not take into account attrition, either in nor out. Grad transfer from USF (DB) will help fill what appears to be a bad weakness for NU. They could have had significant outflow as well.

Pick away. I’m not saying my analysis is perfect. One nit on your data. Did you compare unit to unit? Or cross units? For example, CU WR be NU DBs? Latter may give more insight to matchup advantages or disadvantages.

I think CU wins if Montez can execute tempo and keep his cool in a loud environment.
 
TSchekler said:
I'm not convinced they have a better OL than ours, either. Depth, almost assuredly, but I think CU's first OL group is going to be fine. Just can't afford injuries. As TDforTD said, they recruited well under Riley in terms of stars and rankings, but many of those highly touted players were just complete misses or have transferred out. Compound that with a completely new staff and scheme and CU coming to town in week two, and it's a bad matchup for them, IMO. CU wins.
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All fair. If NU wins, that says something under your circumstances.
 
hawg1 said:
Fair.

I was going on Phil Steele rankings, supplemented by these recruiting rankings (NU listed first):

2017: 20-32
2016: 24-65
2015: 31- 70
2014: 32-63
2013: 17-67

My thesis being that NU is not void of talent. Issue was softness, development and bad HC fit. I also have a qualitative edge to NU HC staff.

My data do not take into account attrition, either in nor out. Grad transfer from USF (DB) will help fill what appears to be a bad weakness for NU. They could have had significant outflow as well.

Pick away. I’m not saying my analysis is perfect. One nit on your data. Did you compare unit to unit? Or cross units? For example, CU WR be NU DBs? Latter may give more insight to matchup advantages or disadvantages.

I think CU wins if Montez can execute tempo and keep his cool in a loud environment.
Click to expand...
Good point, no I wasn’t comparing cross unit but that would definitely provide more insight. Just going off what I personally think of the units individually. Agreed, I really think this game comes down to Montez executing. If he does, it seems like game is in our favor.
 
I love the optimism, but I feel the Buffs are closer to a 5 win season than an 8 win season. I will be relieved if they can get to 6. Hope the rest of you have the pulse of the team better than me.
 
Buffs35 said:
I love the optimism, but I feel the Buffs are closer to a 5 win season than an 8 win season. I will be relieved if they can get to 6. Hope the rest of you have the pulse of the team better than me.
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WSU,kNU and ASU are the keys IMO. Win all three and CU is 7-5. Go 2-1 and they are 6-6. Drop all three? Katie bar the door.
 
BuffUp said:
I don't understand all the predictions for a loss to the nubs? they are going three and nine and one of those wins will be CU - no way... we beat those punks right there in lincoln. new coach, new staff, unproven qb, and a ****tier D with terrible DBs... no way we lose that one.
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It’s more so we haven’t proven anything on the road. We crush the nubs at home. First road game of the year scares me.
 
Aug: undefeated
Sep: 1 loss
Oct: 2 losses
Nov: 3 losses
Dec: undefeated
 
I think the offense will be good-great. Defense major question mark. Not sold on the DC.....if they get into shootouts, see season similar to last year because the pre-season sked is more challenging. I think our WRs could be in the top 5 in the country.....big, fast, athletic. D talent looks better...we shall see.
 
The run defense will improve from bad to decent or good this season. Pass D will stay about the same.
The offense will be about the same (erratic and sporadic depending on the quality of the defense we face week in and week out). Any improvements in Montez and the WRs are countered by Chiv being a rookie playcaller and the loss of Philip.
This equates to 6, 7, 8 or 9 wins.

I'll go with 8 wins because NCoY MM is Allsome.
 
UNDEFEATED. yeah, i say that every year, so i thought i'd get it out of the way.

we're going to have to pull some road upsets of merit to have a meaningful year.
 
I'll go with 7 and I think that's optimistic. Although I have a good feeling about Montez and the offense this season for some reason.

Wins: CSU, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Arizona State, Oregon State, Washington State, California

CSU should be a good game, but we should always beat them, and i think we do again this year. Final score: 31-21

Nebraska will be a tough one, especially in Lincoln, but I'm gonna be a homer and pick CU. Nebraska wasn't very good against the run last season so I hope CU can exploit that. Final score: 27-24

New Hampshire is New Hampshire. Final score: 44-7

Arizona State has a new coach and personally I'm just not very high on them this season. We shouldn't have lost to them last year and I think that's good motivation for this season. Plus the games in Boulder. Final score: 31-14

Oregon State is Oregon State and the game is at Folsom. I think CU wins handily. Final Score: 33-10

Washington State is going to be a weird team this year I think. We all know the air raid will be what they use, but they don't have Luke Falk this season. Final Score: 24-20

California is a team I really like this season, but I still think they are a year away in the PAC-12 South. They play Washington, Wazzu, USC, and Stanford in consecutive weeks before they play us. That is a brutal schedule and I think they will be completely worn down. Final score: 21-17

Loses: UCLA, USC, Washington, Arizona, Utah

UCLA is a team I think we can beat, but won't. Last years game we should have won but our receivers couldn't catch anything. Chip Kelly is a fantastic coach and I think UCLA pulls one out in Boulder. Final Score: 24-21

USC is USC and on the road. Final score: 34-10

Washington is Washington and on the road. Final score: 40-21

Arizona has Tate plus the game is on the road. I think this is another toss-up game and, if CU makes some plays and limits the turnovers, can go either way. Right now, though, I think Arizona grabs this one at home. Final score: 38-30

Utah is a team I think is going to be good this year. I like Kyle Whittingham as a coach as well. The games in Boulder but I think Utah will be too strong. Will they finally win the South? Final Score: 24-21
 
-BMP- said:
I'll go with 7 and I think that's optimistic. Although I have a good feeling about Montez and the offense this season for some reason.

Wins: CSU, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Arizona State, Oregon State, Washington State, California

CSU should be a good game, but we should always beat them, and i think we do again this year. Final score: 31-21

Nebraska will be a tough one, especially in Lincoln, but I'm gonna be a homer and pick CU. Nebraska wasn't very good against the run last season so I hope CU can exploit that. Final score: 27-24

New Hampshire is New Hampshire. Final score: 44-7

Arizona State has a new coach and personally I'm just not very high on them this season. We shouldn't have lost to them last year and I think that's good motivation for this season. Plus the games in Boulder. Final score: 31-14

Oregon State is Oregon State and the game is at Folsom. I think CU wins handily. Final Score: 33-10

Washington State is going to be a weird team this year I think. We all know the air raid will be what they use, but they don't have Luke Falk this season. Final Score: 24-20

California is a team I really like this season, but I still think they are a year away in the PAC-12 South. They play Washington, Wazzu, USC, and Stanford in consecutive weeks before they play us. That is a brutal schedule and I think they will be completely worn down. Final score: 21-17

Loses: UCLA, USC, Washington, Arizona, Utah

UCLA is a team I think we can beat, but won't. Last years game we should have won but our receivers couldn't catch anything. Chip Kelly is a fantastic coach and I think UCLA pulls one out in Boulder. Final Score: 24-21

USC is USC and on the road. Final score: 34-10

Washington is Washington and on the road. Final score: 40-21

Arizona has Tate plus the game is on the road. I think this is another toss-up game and, if CU makes some plays and limits the turnovers, can go either way. Right now, though, I think Arizona grabs this one at home. Final score: 38-30

Utah is a team I think is going to be good this year. I like Kyle Whittingham as a coach as well. The games in Boulder but I think Utah will be too strong. Will they finally win the South? Final Score: 24-21
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Coming strong with a well thought out first post. Welcome!

Quick note for any lurkers who are trying to decide on breaking the seal by posting something, there are several approaches that can work.

1. Have an intelligent take.

2. Bring some scoop (not something everyone can do).

3. Be funny (even fewer people can do this no matter what most of us think about ourselves).

4. Find an appropriate thread to drop "**** nebraska" or "**** csu" or "**** baylor" or any other college that isn't fit to sniff the Buffs' jock (Hint: every thread is appropriate for this).

5. Post a pic with some decent side boob or similar along with a sammich (best approach for 90% of people).
 
Buffnik said:
Coming strong with a well thought out first post. Welcome!

Quick note for any lurkers who are trying to decide on breaking the seal by posting something, there are several approaches that can work.

1. Have an intelligent take.

2. Bring some scoop (not something everyone can do).

3. Be funny (even fewer people can do this no matter what most of us think about ourselves).

4. Find an appropriate thread to drop "**** nebraska" or "**** csu" or "**** baylor" or any other college that isn't fit to sniff the Buffs' jock (Hint: every thread is appropriate for this).

5. Post a pic with some decent side boob or similar along with a sammich (best approach for 90% of people).
Click to expand...
Or "like" a whole bunch of posts without actually posting. Big Jim was notorious in a good way when he was just a lurker liking posts - then he actually posted and ruined his whole rep.
 
7-5
Mostly sure things, more or less in order of confidence:
  1. Washington is a loss. Needs little reasoning.
  2. OSU is a win. They’re awful.
  3. UNH is a win. They’re not bad at all, but greater talent and home opener, so..
  4. USC is a loss. In the Coliseum. Not quite in the Washington-loss class, but close.
  5. Utah is a loss. They’re loaded this year and especially strong up-front defensively which is strength against the Buffs weakness.
  6. ASU is a win. It’s at home and they’re not good.
  7. WSU is a win. It’s at home and they’re not good.
  8. CSU is a win. They’re the ewes but closer than we’d like to admit. The team who plays smarter and doesn’t give in to emotion will win.
  9. Arizona is a loss. The closest of my sure things. Tate and it’s on the road, so...
That’s 5-4 in the bank.
  1. Nubs - most if not all DL starters return. Yes, from a unit that sucked a year ago but according to Phil Steele that unit is predicted to make the biggest yoy improvement in all of the B10. If true, not a good matchup for a Buff OL that may still be trying to find its mojo. Their secondary is supposed to be much improved over last year too which could cause some problems. Oh, and it’s in very hostile territory. Hate this, but probably a loss.
To get to 7 wins, the Buffs have to win these close matchups:
  1. UCLA - Phil Steele predicts their LB corp to be top 45 but the Buffs get them at home following a bye. They’re not supposed to be very strong in DL so we should be able to control some things. Buffs pull away in the second half.
  2. Cal - Phil Steele predicts their LB corp to be top 50 which isn’t saying a lot but it’s something. He also thinks they’ll surprise this season. 81% chance they are better than they were last year. Away late in the season but with some marbles on the line, the Buffs find a way to win.
 
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Darth Snow said:
I'm worried about cal. They got a coach. Year 2.
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Only thing with Cal is that seem very weak in the offensive firepower department. Strange to say about Cal that their strengths lie elsewhere, but it's what they are. If you can stop their power run game and force them to score a lot to keep up with you, they're not that hard of an out. But you can't get caught playing them at their game.
 
With a coach who hasn’t shown he can coach and win in the big time, I believe 4-8 is in the cards.

Wins...
CSU and UNH
Oregon State and Washington State

I hope to be proven wrong.
 
manhattanbuf said:
With a coach who hasn’t shown he can coach and win in the big time, I believe 4-8 is in the cards.

Wins...
CSU and UNH
Oregon State and Washington State

I hope to be proven wrong.
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I completely understand that people don’t believe MM is the right guy to take us to the next level. I’m not personally ready to go there but I see their point.

Saying he hasn’t shown he can coach and win in the big time is ridiculous though. He won 10 games and the PAC 12 south title, including the last 2 games of the regular season against tough opponents that were essentially games for the title. That isn’t logical...
 
dwyermj said:
I completely understand that people don’t believe MM is the right guy to take us to the next level. I’m not personally ready to go there but I see their point.

Saying he hasn’t shown he can coach and win in the big time is ridiculous though. He won 10 games and the PAC 12 south title, including the last 2 games of the regular season against tough opponents that were essentially games for the title. That isn’t logical...
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Macintyre has been the coach at CU for five seasons.

In those five seasons, he has had one winning season. We are all well aware of that magical season filled with mature, senior-laden NFL quality talent (especially on defense), a four year starter at QB, and one of the best DCs in the sport.

The other four seasons, Macintyre has averaged one conference win.
The other four seasons, Macintyre has averaged 3.75 wins per season.
The other four seasons, Macintyre has finished last in the Pac 12 South standings.

Even with a 10 win season, he has a 40% overall win percentage at Colorado. Even with an 8 win conference season, he has a 26.7% conference win percentage at Colorado.

Take out an aberrant season in 2016, his overall win percentage is 30%. Take out an abertant season in 2016, his conference win percentage is 11%.

Macintyre has not proven he can coach big time college football. As Macintyre’s mentor famously stated “you are what your record says you are”.
 
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Buffnik said:
Only thing with Cal is that seem very weak in the offensive firepower department. Strange to say about Cal that their strengths lie elsewhere, but it's what they are. If you can stop their power run game and force them to score a lot to keep up with you, they're not that hard of an out. But you can't get caught playing them at their game.
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Thanks, Buffnik. I just found this forum today and I want to contribute.

I've always just used Reddit and r/cfb for college football. Glad I found a more CU focused forum to use!
 
manhattanbuf said:
Macintyre has been the coach at CU for five seasons.

In those five seasons, he has had one winning season. We are all well aware of that magical season filled with mature, senior-laden NFL quality talent (especially on defense), a four year starter at QB, and one of the DCs in the sport.

The other four seasons, Macintyre has averaged one conference win.
The other four seasons, Macintyre has averaged 3.75 wins per season.
The other four seasons, Macintyre has finished last in the Pac 12 South standings.

Even with a 10 win season, he has a 40% overall win percentage at Colorado. Even with an 8 win conference season, he has a 26.7% conference win percentage at Colorado.

Take out an aberrant season in 2016, his overall win percentage is 30%. Take out an abertant season in 2016, his conference win percentage is 11%.

Macintyre has not proven he can coach big time college football. As Macintyre’s mentor famously stated “you are what your record says you are”.
Click to expand...
This can be said about a majority of teams in college football.
 
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