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Fearless predictions for CU's 2018 season

I think 11-1 would have been impossible last year...but with all the rebuilding and new coaches in the South I think it isn't unreasonable. Basically the South would need to be a mess for it to happen, but the South could be a mess this year. We would have to hope that USC couldn't find a quarterback.

Given the South is a mess scenario, in the 11-1 outcome, our likely loss would be to UW and our hardest win would be a tough Utah team at Folsom.
 
Duff Man said:
@ Arizona because of where it falls. Friday night road game just a couple games after the vicious Washington/USC road swing.

I would also add finishing with Utah and Cal is not super tough, but those will be two really physical games.
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RichRod>>>Sumlin at scheming and coaching
 
8Jah said:
I think 11-1 would have been impossible last year...but with all the rebuilding and new coaches in the South I think it isn't unreasonable. Basically the South would need to be a mess for it to happen, but the South could be a mess this year. We would have to hope that USC couldn't find a quarterback.

Given the South is a mess scenario, in the 11-1 outcome, our likely loss would be to UW and our hardest win would be a tough Utah team at Folsom.
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11-1 is completely unreasonable.
 
Duff Man said:
11-1 is completely unreasonable.
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If you don't think it is possible for us to beat USC in LA, regardless of how their rebuild goes, then I can understand that. But if you think there is no reasonable way we could ever beat the other non-UW teams on our schedule given their own potential struggles...then I think you're just talking.

At least 10-2 is a reasonable possibility...certainly not a likely possibility, but a reasonable one.
 
8Jah said:
If you don't think it is possible for us to beat USC in LA, regardless of how their rebuild goes, then I can understand that. But if you think there is no reasonable way we could ever beat the other non-UW teams on our schedule given their own potential struggles...then I think you're just talking.

At least 10-2 is a reasonable possibility...certainly not a likely possibility, but a reasonable one.
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Your "reasoning" basically boils down to "any given Saturday."
 
8Jah said:
If you don't think it is possible for us to beat USC in LA, regardless of how their rebuild goes, then I can understand that. But if you think there is no reasonable way we could ever beat the other non-UW teams on our schedule given their own potential struggles...then I think you're just talking.

At least 10-2 is a reasonable possibility...certainly not a likely possibility, but a reasonable one.
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Remote possibility? Yes. Reasonable? Nope. Far too many questions in the trenches to make it reasonable.
 
Duff Man said:
Your "reasoning" basically boils down to "any given Saturday."
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Yeah, it’s one thing to think this is the year we massively upset USC in CA, but it’s another thing to believe we are actually talented and well coached enough to play with that level of consistency in every game.
 
The point of my mini-thread was that there is a much wider spread of potential outcomes in 2018 than any year in recent memory due to the amount of change in our conference

Seems that no one has a beef with the 1-11 possibility. Suppose that is what I would expect from a fan-base that has seen one winning season in the past decade.

Suppose for the same reason that it isn't surprising the beef is with 11-1. Note that we were 11-1 in 2016 and where 5-7 in 2017. In 2017 we lost three of those games by less than a touchdown on average...largely because of our own mistakes. These same three teams just changed their coaching staffs and none of them are keeping the same schemes. Three of the four additional teams that beat us are in rebuild years. In 2017 we played 5 of nine conference games on the road and didn't win a single close game. In 2018 we play five of nine conference games at home. We may also be improved some depending on your level of cool-aide intake. Not likely that we beat 6 of 7 teams that beat us last year, but it wouldn't be an unreasonable outcome.
 
Well, pretty sure your assertion of 1-11 was called stupid too. But just to make you feel better, it is REALLY stupid.

Turn a 10-2 record in 2016 magically into 11-1 (???), turn 5-7 with three self-losses magically into 8-4, and yes, everything is reasonable.
 
Duff Man said:
Well, pretty sure your assertion of 1-11 was called stupid too. But just to make you feel better, it is REALLY stupid.

Turn a 10-2 record in 2016 magically into 11-1 (???), turn 5-7 with three self-losses magically into 8-4, and yes, everything is reasonable.
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Should we evaluate every coach and program based on a retrospective of how good previous seasons would have been if everything had broken right for them? :D

Guys, you are what your record is. No moral victories. No excuses. Teams win or lose because they deserved to win or lose. Whatever "luck" there is for good or bad evens out.
 
hawg1 said:
Leaders don’t dunk.
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Hot take...QB's dont' need to be "leaders", especially if you mean vocal leaders. "Vocal leaders" are overrated IMO. I'd prefer him to go out there and play, and keep his mouth shut, and take care of business. I hate the frat signs, but dunking the ball over the goal post is fine, and if you don't think so, you're old and out of touch. I suppose you think Tony Gonzalez was a bad teammate and leader because he dunked it after every TD. Oh wait, is it OK for him to do it because he's not a QB? You must hate when Tom Brady emphatically spikes it and screams at everyone when he takes a QB sneak 1 yard for a TD.
 
Have just returned from Las Vegas. Most lines I saw for the buffs football team this season were either 4 (over juiced) or 4.5 (regular juice both sides).

Given your collective confidence, I expect that y’all will have an Allbuffs pooled wager for six figures of the over?
 
8Jah said:
The point of my mini-thread was that there is a much wider spread of potential outcomes in 2018 than any year in recent memory due to the amount of change in our conference

Seems that no one has a beef with the 1-11 possibility. Suppose that is what I would expect from a fan-base that has seen one winning season in the past decade.

Suppose for the same reason that it isn't surprising the beef is with 11-1. Note that we were 11-1 in 2016 and where 5-7 in 2017. In 2017 we lost three of those games by less than a touchdown on average...largely because of our own mistakes. These same three teams just changed their coaching staffs and none of them are keeping the same schemes. Three of the four additional teams that beat us are in rebuild years. In 2017 we played 5 of nine conference games on the road and didn't win a single close game. In 2018 we play five of nine conference games at home. We may also be improved some depending on your level of cool-aide intake. Not likely that we beat 6 of 7 teams that beat us last year, but it wouldn't be an unreasonable outcome.
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I do. There's no ****ing way we lose to CSU. Our defense finished 109th in the country last year......(total defense) and the goats still couldn't find the end zone against us. I don't expect them to like be able to move the ball at will against us with a new QB and pretty new OL (don't they have 1 returning starter along their OL?)
 
8Jah said:
Time for midsummer revision.

In the modern history of CU football we have 2012 and we have 2016. In 2012 we knew we would be bad - and it was much worse than we could have ever thought. In 2016 we hoped for the potential of our most experienced team in years - and it turned out better than anyone even hoped. 2018 is the year where we just don't know what will happen.

If MM just mails it in like last year, if Eliot is as bad as he might be, if we lose an offensive tackle, if the 2017 version of Javier Edwards is still our best option at NT, if we lose to CSU, if we realize our cool-aide is sour...then things could really go South. Under these very possible circumstances, it is no ****, totally reasonable that we go 1-11. Though the 2012 CU buffs where one of the worst teams in FBS history, the 2018 buffs could end with the same record.

If our Oline is better than it looks on paper (very possible), Drake is as good a teacher as anyone could hope, an experienced and conditioned Edwards improves as much as is realistically possible, Drew Lewis, Worthington and Taylor learn to fully leverage their freakish athletic abilities, Roper unlocks the sick potential within Montez, our receivers are as dominating as we think they might be, McMillian is able to do for CU what he did for Virginia Tech in 2015, MM realizes his job is on the line again and if Eliot proves to be the serviceable D coordinator MM hoped he would be....then things could look better than expected in a conference where USC/WSU are rebuilding and UA/ASU/UCLA are adjusting to new coaching staffs. Under these very possible outcomes I think our reasonable upper potential is 11-1 at the end of conference play..as good as 2016.
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Why is it that the “positive” outlook looks SO MUCH more difficult. The negative looks so easy to accomplish.
 
ahoelsken said:
I do. There's no ****ing way we lose to CSU. Our defense finished 109th in the country last year......(total defense) and the goats still couldn't find the end zone against us. I don't expect them to like be able to move the ball at will against us with a new QB and pretty new OL (don't they have 1 returning starter along their OL?)
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I feel like we say this every year. Literally.
 
Medford M. said:
Hot take...QB's dont' need to be "leaders", especially if you mean vocal leaders. "Vocal leaders" are overrated IMO. I'd prefer him to go out there and play, and keep his mouth shut, and take care of business. I hate the frat signs, but dunking the ball over the goal post is fine, and if you don't think so, you're old and out of touch. I suppose you think Tony Gonzalez was a bad teammate and leader because he dunked it after every TD. Oh wait, is it OK for him to do it because he's not a QB? You must hate when Tom Brady emphatically spikes it and screams at everyone when he takes a QB sneak 1 yard for a TD.
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I hate everything Brady does.
 
The class of the PAC12 is in the North this year: UW, UO and Stanford. You then have this middle seven that are nearly even...mostly in the South: UA, ASU, Cal, CU, UCLA, WSU. USC and Utah stick out a little above the middle seven and if USC finds a QB they could be in that group with UW. OSU is clearly in the basement.

You can defend a case where any one of the middle seven teams is explosively good: Tate/Sumlin become unstoppable, Kelly transforms the talent at UCLA into a power house, Wilcox takes the next step, the Pirate does what he does, etc... There is also a ****load of change and thus big downside for each team. The middle seven teams are all wildcards.

The middle seven team that really struggles could only win one game in conference.

The middle seven team that clicks (eg. Tate and Sumlin become unstoppable) is going to beat the other seven and possibly even USC and Utah. If CU is one of the middle seven teams that clicks, we don't have to play UO and Stanford this year. Losing to UW bounds our upside.
 
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Medford M. said:
Hot take...QB's dont' need to be "leaders", especially if you mean vocal leaders. "Vocal leaders" are overrated IMO. I'd prefer him to go out there and play, and keep his mouth shut, and take care of business. I hate the frat signs, but dunking the ball over the goal post is fine, and if you don't think so, you're old and out of touch. I suppose you think Tony Gonzalez was a bad teammate and leader because he dunked it after every TD. Oh wait, is it OK for him to do it because he's not a QB? You must hate when Tom Brady emphatically spikes it and screams at everyone when he takes a QB sneak 1 yard for a TD.
Click to expand...
As for his antics, my problem with them was he was doing them while CU was terrible last year. It's like pimping a homerun when you are down 10 runs. If he starts every game and they win 8 games or more, he can do anything he wants so long as he isn't penalized. Strike that, if he contributes to 8 or more wins, he can even be penalized.

Crash Davis: Your shower shoes have fungus on them. You'll never make it to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes. Think classy, you'll be classy. If you win 20 in the show, you can let the fungus grow back and the press'll think you're colorful. Until you win 20 in the show, however, it means you are a slob.
 
Buffs35 said:
As for his antics, my problem with them was he was doing them while CU was terrible last year. It's like pimping a homerun when you are down 10 runs. If he starts every game and they win 8 games or more, he can do anything he wants so long as he isn't penalized. Strike that, if he contributes to 8 or more wins, he can even be penalized.

Crash Davis: Your shower shoes have fungus on them. You'll never make it to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes. Think classy, you'll be classy. If you win 20 in the show, you can let the fungus grow back and the press'll think you're colorful. Until you win 20 in the show, however, it means you are a slob.
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I seem to remember a certain John Mackey award winner dunking the ball while getting blown out by Oregon in a bowl game.
 
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