Lookin ahead to 2021-22

[Alfred91]

Yes, especially with where the compensation goes. Having said that a lot of 16 years start working at movie theatres, day cares, car washes etc. They have to start handling that money as well. However, the amount of money made with Ballislife videos, highlight reals, social media, youtube highlight clips etc is absurd. And as is the thought with college kids who coaches, Universities, media companies make millions off of but they don't get any compesation, the same can now be said of elite high school talent. I remember the game a few years ago that was Zion vs Lamelo and it was absurd, A list celebs, thousands of people, millions of views, ESPN covered it the whole 9. Those kids deserve to get paid. 16 year old tik tok creators making bank right now, why can't elite high school talent that produce the insane dunks, and shots that we all consume?

It's not about that.

It's about who's handling their education, what happens if there's a serious injury, what happens if they wash out.

One of the things that happened when kids started jumping straight from high school to the NBA was the lack of a safety net. Some kids fell hard.

If they're going to start taking 16 year olds, they better have a detailed plan on how to take care of these kids.

 

[JMBuffs]

Parq and Battey are amazing role players and bring a physical and unique element to the team but losing Kin and Horne (and even Schwartz) leaves a glaring hole as offensive facilitators.

 

[cu3x]

It's not about that.

It's about who's handling their education, what happens if there's a serious injury, what happens if they wash out.

One of the things that happened when kids started jumping straight from high school to the NBA was the lack of a safety net. Some kids fell hard.

If they're going to start taking 16 year olds, they better have a detailed plan on how to take care of these kids.

Back when I started at CU, they used the term 'in loco parentis (sp)', meaning CU was the students' "local parent" Same would apply if you do this with 16 or 17 year-olds. Especially if you take them on the road. I think they'd even be responsible for their mental health, all their leisure time activities, etc. etc.

 

[Buffsbball]

It's not about that.

It's about who's handling their education, what happens if there's a serious injury, what happens if they wash out.

One of the things that happened when kids started jumping straight from high school to the NBA was the lack of a safety net. Some kids fell hard.

If they're going to start taking 16 year olds, they better have a detailed plan on how to take care of these kids.

I agree with you, which is why I mentioned where the money goes. However, that shouldn't be the reason to prevent you from doing this because they are 16. They still should be compensated. There just needs to be a good plan in place. Online education makes things a lot easier these days. In soccer, teens sign big contracts all the time. American sports I feel run behind sports contracts/academies abroad. If a kid shows top 30 promise in a sport as a 16 year old, we should foster that, pour resources into that kid to see what they can turn into. School shouldn't be the top focus.

 

[Da Lama]

Let's assume none of the seniors come back, I think that's the safest bet.

I think there is a wide variance of possible outcomes for next year, given all the unknowns.

Parquet and Battey are solid veterans, floor-lifters for any P5 team, but it's hard to picture them being ceiling-lifters on their own. Everything else is uncertain.

We need 5-6 surprises to be top of the PAC, 3-4 surprises to be upper middle, 1-2 surprises to be lower middle of the PAC, or the last possibility -- our current freshman stagnate and next year's class plays like typical freshman and we find ourselves at the bottom of the league angrily typing #FIRETAD on internet message boards.

Walker and de Silva are already solid, if they make a Freshman -> Sophomore jump that could be surprise #1-2.

PG next year is a mystery, after being dominated by Kin for 4 years. Key could literally unlock this team's potential if he can run the show, minimize turnovers, and shoot better than 35% from 3. That seems like a bit of a long shot. Maybe Tad hedges and brings in a grad transfer PG. Either of those things happening is surprise #3.

I really have no idea what to expect out of Clifford and O'Brien, so I will cast them in with the incoming Freshman. This incoming class might be the best that CU has ever seen. From my thorough analysis of 2 minute YouTube highlight videos I can conclude that any one of Lovering, Allen, or Ruffin could compete for PAC Freshman of the year. Hammond is less hyped and even though I like his long-term potential I'm not projecting a huge contribution since he plays the most challenging position and doesn't seem to rely on incredible physical gifts like the others.

I think we need 1-2 of Clifford, O'Brien, Allen, and Ruffin to over-perform expectations. That's surprise #4-5.

I'm going to put Lovering in his own category. He passes every eye test, but he plays in Wyoming. So does that mean he's currently underrated as the ~#60 recruit in the nation because scouts haven't seen as much of him, or is he going to have an adjustment period because the step-up in competition is so great? He could be a 1-and-Done or he could look completely lost all season long. If he can get to a Josh Scott level of Freshman year contribution or better, that would be surprise #6.

TL;DR - If you're optimistic about next season, you're right. If you're pessimistic, you're right. If you're confident, you're wrong.

As I posted in another thread, Key needs to really elevate his game before next year. It's vitually impossible to follow Kin, but he should've been further along this year and that's worrisome. Because of that, I think it's vital Tad finds a grad PG this off season. And if Horne chooses to move on, he's got to find a grad forward that compliments Battey as well.

I also think you'll see most of the 2021 commits leapfrog O'Brien and Clifford. So if all the Seniors move on, here's what I think the roster should look like:

Starters:
G - Grad transfer
G - Parquet
F - Grad transfer
F - Walker
F - Battey

Bench:
1 - Barthelemy
2 - da Silva
3 - Lovering (because of size impact)
4 - Allen / Ruffin (Ruffin is my Walker-esque sleeper for next year)
6 - Clifford
7 - O'Brien
8 - Hammond

Starters if no Grad Transfers:
G - Barthelemy
G - Parquet
F - da Silva
F - Walker
F - Battey

 

[jumped ship]

Battey has been wildly inconsistent this year (though top line stats have stayed the same)...if he can get avoid fouls and better harness his emotions next season I see him averaging 12 and 7

Who else will give us double digit scoring? Walker, Allen, Lovering?

We need Horne to come back or to get a similar caliber grad transfer.

 

[FM-Buff]

It's not about that.

It's about who's handling their education, what happens if there's a serious injury, what happens if they wash out.

One of the things that happened when kids started jumping straight from high school to the NBA was the lack of a safety net. Some kids fell hard.

If they're going to start taking 16 year olds, they better have a detailed plan on how to take care of these kids.

European soccer and basketball has been doing this for years. I'm sure they will use many of their principles when starting.

 

[Alfred91]

I agree with you, which is why I mentioned where the money goes. However, that shouldn't be the reason to prevent you from doing this because they are 16. They still should be compensated. There just needs to be a good plan in place. Online education makes things a lot easier these days. In soccer, teens sign big contracts all the time. American sports I feel run behind sports contracts/academies abroad. If a kid shows top 30 promise in a sport as a 16 year old, we should foster that, pour resources into that kid to see what they can turn into. School shouldn't be the top focus.

European soccer and basketball has been doing this for years. I'm sure they will use many of their principles when starting.

I will actually defer to whatever light @Jens1893 can shed on the situation, but I have heard that the Euro situation is great for the players who can cut it, not so much for those who can't.

The concern should always be about long term wellbeing of the young athlete. I'm not saying that it's a terrible idea, but if you start pulling 16 year olds, you better have a support system better than any college could give, and it needs to provide more than just basketball and sitting in front of a computer screen for school.

 

[Da Lama]

Battey has been wildly inconsistent this year (though top line stats have stayed the same)...if he can get avoid fouls and better harness his emotions next season I see him averaging 12 and 7

Who else will give us double digit scoring? Walker, Allen, Lovering?

We need Horne to come back or to get a similar caliber grad transfer.

Walker will probably be a 10/5 guy next year. I imagine Battey will be the same. Allen, if he gets the PT, could hit 7/3. Same with Da Silva and Parquet. Next year is going to have to be scoring by committee. The scariest thing is we look devoid of clutch scorers next year. Need 2 grad transfers. Hopefully a half way decent showing in the dance will entice some grad players to consider CU.

 

[Jens1893]

I will actually defer to whatever light @Jens1893 can shed on the situation, but I have heard that the Euro situation is great for the players who can cut it, not so much for those who can't.

The concern should always be about long term wellbeing of the young athlete. I'm not saying that it's a terrible idea, but if you start pulling 16 year olds, you better have a support system better than any college could give, and it needs to provide more than just basketball and sitting in front of a computer screen for school.

What is the question?

 

[Alfred91]

What is the question?

The European soccer and basketball clubs that take kids in at a young age - do they take proper care of the kids so that, if their soccer/basketball dreams don't work out, they can transition easily into normal life?

I had heard that it wasn't necessarily the case, but I figured you'd have a better idea.

 

[Jens1893]

The European soccer and basketball clubs that take kids in at a young age - do they take proper care of the kids so that, if their soccer/basketball dreams don't work out, they can transition easily into normal life?

I had heard that it wasn't necessarily the case, but I figured you'd have a better idea.

There are support systems in place, of course. There're partnerships with schools where athletically gifted and promising kids go that allow them to combine both, but then you also need to see that a university degree doesn't have the same importance it does over there and that you can be perfectly fine with just a HS diploma and go from there.

From what I can tell the clubs see that the kids finish their HS equivalent education and have support systems to ensure that happens. They also have partnerships with "foster families" (and I don't mean that in a negative way here) kids can live with if it isn't feasible or possible for them to stay in their usual surroundings, eg as they come from too far away.

But then you also need to see how big the market is. It isn't like in the States where it's NBA/NFL or nothing, if you have gone through a professional academy you can most of the time at least make some money playing for another 10-15 years at the semi-pro level. I know of one guy who was a decent third division player here in his mid 20s, I assume he made somewhere between 80-100k, which for that age isn't bad, and he quit, signed for a fifth division club in his home town and went to school again and made enough money by playing at that level to fund his studies.

 

[Buffnik]

No one says a thing about teenage girls turning pro in tennis if they've got the talent. How many child actors are there? I don't see what the big deal is. There are laws and "best practices" templates long in place for this sort of thing.

 

[Ruckus]

Walker will probably be a 10/5 guy next year. I imagine Battey will be the same. Allen, if he gets the PT, could hit 7/3. Same with Da Silva and Parquet. Next year is going to have to be scoring by committee. The scariest thing is we look devoid of clutch scorers next year. Need 2 grad transfers. Hopefully a half way decent showing in the dance will entice some grad players to consider CU.

Walker is 7.7p and 4.4r per game this year while averaging fewer than 14 minutes per game. If he’s only 10/5 next year as a starter, we’ll kinda suck and it will be a disappointing sophomore campaign.

 

[Buffnik]

I thought Kee showed a lot in that UCLA game. He has learned to play under control and pick his spots. I'm feeling a lot better about him than I was a couple months ago. He's good, guys, just in a big shadow right now.

 

[Darth Snow]

I thought Kee showed a lot in that UCLA game. He has learned to play under control and pick his spots. I'm feeling a lot better about him than I was a couple months ago. He's good, guys, just in a big shadow right now.

Let's hope man. That was a really rough stretch and he's still jacking up shots. His offensive rating has continued to drop throughout conference play and is worst on the team.

 

[Medford M.]

Srarters:

PG: Grad transfer
SG: Parquet
SF: Allen
PF: Walker
C: Battey

Key back ups:

Lovering
Da Silva
Ruffin
Barthelemy

I'm a lot higher on O'Brien than most, so I'd love for him to be in the Ruffin spot, but until he proves it, I'm putting Ruffin in the rotation because of his shooting skills.

That leaves O'Brien, Clifford, and Hammond battling for the 10th spot as of now.

Add M'Baye and I think he challenges to take Da Silva's minutes.

 

[MtnBuff]

I will actually defer to whatever light @Jens1893 can shed on the situation, but I have heard that the Euro situation is great for the players who can cut it, not so much for those who can't.

The concern should always be about long term wellbeing of the young athlete. I'm not saying that it's a terrible idea, but if you start pulling 16 year olds, you better have a support system better than any college could give, and it needs to provide more than just basketball and sitting in front of a computer screen for school.

We can look in the United States to some of the individual sports where we start kids out very early in a full concentration on a sport. In things like gymnastics and figure skating.

The kids do get their HS education taken care of but with the focus on training for the sport it certainly isn't guaranteed to be the quality they would get in a good school system. More importantly they are in their little sport cocoon with none of the other school activities and social life and development they would normally get. Eventually in their late teens a few of them rise to the top and move into high level competition and potentially a very lucrative career. The majority of them are kicked to the curb, washed up before most kids even get started in their life's direction.

I can see having development leagues for kids once they are out of high school but even with these there should be provisions made to provide for education for those who don't make it financially in the sport.

 

[hokiehead]

It's not about that.

It's about who's handling their education, what happens if there's a serious injury, what happens if they wash out.

One of the things that happened when kids started jumping straight from high school to the NBA was the lack of a safety net. Some kids fell hard.

If they're going to start taking 16 year olds, they better have a detailed plan on how to take care of these kids.

serious question, i have no idea the answer. Tennis and hockey have historically been more aggressive in moving children up the pro levels than basketball. Do those sports have models for "taking care of those kids" that (a) accomplish what you're getting at and (b) could be adopted by the NBA?

edit: just saw the back/forth w/ Jens about European models. that seems equally relevant.

 

[jumped ship]

serious question, i have no idea the answer. Tennis and hockey have historically been more aggressive in moving children up the pro levels than basketball. Do those sports have models for "taking care of those kids" that (a) accomplish what you're getting at and (b) could be adopted by the NBA?

edit: just saw the back/forth w/ Jens about European models. that seems equally relevant.

a big difference with Tennis and Hockey is the support system that those youth athletes already have in place (statistically speaking) – you aren't getting a lot of kids from lower income families playing country club or boarding school prep sports

don't wan't to go off on a tangent but I used to get so peeved at the fact that golf and tennis were D1 sports, while I ran at UofA there was a stark difference in the kind of places those kids lived versus most other athletes

this Overtime League looks like an impending disaster to me, total exploitation and not addressing the root issue that many of us talk about re: amateur athlete compensation

 

[Alfred91]

serious question, i have no idea the answer. Tennis and hockey have historically been more aggressive in moving children up the pro levels than basketball. Do those sports have models for "taking care of those kids" that (a) accomplish what you're getting at and (b) could be adopted by the NBA?

edit: just saw the back/forth w/ Jens about European models. that seems equally relevant.

I think it's interesting that I just mentioned that I had questions and concerns, and we had people jump in and aggressively be like, LeT tHe KiDZ gEt PaId!

My concern is simply that when kids started jumping straight from high school to the NBA, it was a total disaster for quite a few young men. I was simply questioning what this new league is going to do to support these 16, 17, and 18 year olds educationally, mentally, and emotionally so that what happened then doesn't happen to these even younger kids.

I should also mention that what Jens said is available to kids in European pro academies in terms of 'foster families' is also used in the Canadian major junior hockey leagues. Generally, with gymnasts, ice skaters, and golfers, the kids remain at home with their families. I'm sure everyone has heard the stories of families moving to be closer to Olympic training facilities in gymnastics, skating, etc.

I just haven't seen anything about it with this new outfit, and it should be one of their first priorities.

 

[241Volcanos]

Srarters:

PG: Grad transfer
SG: Parquet
SF: Allen
PF: Walker
C: Battey

Key back ups:

Lovering
Da Silva
Ruffin
Barthelemy

I'm a lot higher on O'Brien than most, so I'd love for him to be in the Ruffin spot, but until he proves it, I'm putting Ruffin in the rotation because of his shooting skills.

That leaves O'Brien, Clifford, and Hammond battling for the 10th spot as of now.

Add M'Baye and I think he challenges to take Da Silva's minutes.

Da Silva might end up being really good.

 

[BuffsNYC]

It's not about that.

It's about who's handling their education, what happens if there's a serious injury, what happens if they wash out.

One of the things that happened when kids started jumping straight from high school to the NBA was the lack of a safety net. Some kids fell hard.

If they're going to start taking 16 year olds, they better have a detailed plan on how to take care of these kids.

Why? Nobody’s looking out for the average teenager except his or her family.

 

[MtnBuff]

Why? Nobody’s looking out for the average teenager except his or her family.

To an extent you are correct and certainly at the revenue sports factory programs at certain universities the players are seen as a disposable commodity to be used to make money with.

I think there are though a good number of coaches who while they want to win and they have to win to keep their jobs also really do care about the kids.

I feel good about supporting CU hoops and Tad because I know that while he expects his players to make the sacrifices demanded of D1 basketball players he takes a lot of pride in making sure that his players go to class and earn degrees. Beyond that he tries to be a positive influence on them as human beings.

We have had a few players come through that from a basketball standpoint looked like wasted scholarships but unlike some other coaches Tad has kept them around and allowed them to get the benefits of being part of the program. Some others he has helped to find a place to transfer to that suited their needs.

No illusions though. Far too many kids are recruited as college athletes and when they don't perform as the coaches would want are kicked to the curb. Many others spend 4-5 years at a school performing on the field or court and only come out of it with the credits needed for them to have stayed eligible and sometimes these are a sham having been earned in classes set up for no other purpose than to keep athletes eligible.

 

[Medford M.]

Da Silva might end up being really good.

He could. I'm not denying that.

 

[Buffnik]

Da Silva might end up being really good.

I think he'll end up being a similar type player as his brother, but not score quite as much.

 

[Alfred91]

Why? Nobody’s looking out for the average teenager except his or her family.

I am literally scratching my head, trying to figure out what your point is.

 

[Go Buffs]

I am literally scratching my head, trying to figure out what your point is.

 

[BuffsNYC]

I am literally scratching my head, trying to figure out what your point is.

Young people in this country are regularly chewed up and spat out by a culture that doesn't care for them at a!!, Yet I keep reading these high-minded paens to the idea that it would be immoral to "exploit" elite teenage arhletes. It's weird.

 

[Alfred91]

Young people in this country are regularly chewed up and spat out by a culture that doesn't care for them at a!!, Yet I keep reading these high-minded paens to the idea that it would be immoral to "exploit" elite teenage arhletes. It's weird.

Cool. Well, I guess as you get to watch their games on ESPN?

Very strange departure from your takes on the P&R board.