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Lunardi- bracketology

CVilleBuff said:
VCU scares the **** out of me, I could easily see us getting rattled and turning it over. They ate Butler alive. But the fact is with the seeding we're looking at makes it unlikely we get an opponent we feel great about.
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Yup. Really hoping that we either get hot and win out or get disrespected and drop down to a 10 seed.
 
Goose said:
Yup. Really hoping that we either get hot and win out or get disrespected and drop down to a 10 seed.
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Yeah, if we win out a 5 seed isn't out of the question. Think I'd rather be at 10 than 8/9 though.
 
CVilleBuff said:
25-9 with likely two more wins over Oregon, one over Zona, one over UCLA. My guess would be 6 or 7
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I would rather be an 11 than a 7, 8, 9, or 10. Yes that means our first round game is a little tougher but it means if we win our second round game is more winnable being against a 3. If we are a 7-10 our chances in the second round are about 10%. Ideal would be a 6 but I don't know if we can get that high unless we in out.
 
letsgoavs192 said:
I would rather be an 11 than a 7, 8, 9, or 10. Yes that means our first round game is a little tougher but it means if we win our second round game is more winnable being against a 3. If we are a 7-10 our chances in the second round are about 10%. Ideal would be a 6 but I don't know if we can get that high unless we in out.
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The 6/11 is my favorite. Decent matchups deep into the tournament. The downside is 6 is highly unlikely, and falling to 11 means we'd be sweating it out on Selection Sunday
 
At this point, I'll take any seeding that puts us in SLC the first weekend. The fans should travel well, we can utilize our acclimation to altitude, and we just might have some pro-PAC 12 Utes cheering for us. That puts us in a 8/9 situation, but I think the location is generally better for our odds of getting to the Sweet Sixteen (which are slim regardless).
 
Please just win vs Ore, Ore St, and Wazzou in the first round and I'll be happy
 
letsgoavs192 said:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

If this was our draw I would be so happy!! Get past VCU and we are very capable of beating New Mexico, then Michigan. And if we somehow got past those teams Gonzaga is the #1 seed we have the best chance of beating!

Thing that makes me nervous is we are back on the bubble.
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It's that whole "get past VCU" part where you lose me. VCU is a horrible match up for us. As Ziskin mentioned on twitter this morning, we'd have 20 turnovers EASY that game. And honestly, I think it might be closer to 30.
 
letsgoavs192 said:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

If this was our draw I would be so happy!! Get past VCU and we are very capable of beating New Mexico, then Michigan. And if we somehow got past those teams Gonzaga is the #1 seed we have the best chance of beating!

Thing that makes me nervous is we are back on the bubble.
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Going up against VCU in the first round would seriously suck. Gotta agree with Goose that the matchup is awful for us. Plus, Shaka's a pretty damn good coauch. I'd rather face almost any 6/7 seed that's up there over VCU.
 
letsgoavs192 said:
I would rather be an 11 than a 7, 8, 9, or 10. Yes that means our first round game is a little tougher but it means if we win our second round game is more winnable being against a 3. If we are a 7-10 our chances in the second round are about 10%. Ideal would be a 6 but I don't know if we can get that high unless we in out.
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I think the highest seed we can get right now is a 6, unless lots of teams above us fall and we can sneak into a 5. I'd like to avoid the 8/9 game at all costs, and think that a 7/10 matchup wouldnt be the worst for us - the 3 seeds on the nitty ( http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/nitty) are florida, KSU, UNM and MSU. We'd match up well with florida (who I think is overrated) and UNM. Those are all winnable games for the buffs (esp in SLC, with a fanbase similar to what was in abq last year)

Win out in the regular season, and at least 1 in the tourney (which is why the 5 seed wont be that bad - it basically gives us a pasty to feast on that still counts as a tourney win) and we should be fine come sunday. A tourney run would be nice, but I dont want them to be totally drained for the dance either...
 
30 turnovers? Are we that terrible? I think we have better ballhandlers than Longwood!

We aren't that bad against the press, and I'm sure Boyle will have us prepared for VCU if we end up playing them.

Actually, I think our worst matchup would be a team with a huge center that can block shots (~Washington and ASU). Those teams give us the most trouble.
 
VCU had 15 steals by halftime against Butler. Butler is normally a very good, well-coached team. Just say no to Shaka.
 
I'm not saying we wouldn't turn it over 20 times, but 30 seems kinda high especially if you give Tad a week to prepare for the press, I'm sure he will get us ready, and the game will be played on a neutral court, so I doubt they will be able to play as physical against us as they do at home against Butler.

I hope we don't play them either, but I don't agree they are the worst matchup for us. A team with a big center gives the most fits IMO.
 
We need to win these next two games. The pressure is mounting. If someone like ASU wins the pac12 tourney, and we lose 2 of the next 3 we could be in the NIT real quick. CMON BUFFS!!!!
 
Don't like Lunardi showing us an 11. I think it's a little low, personally. 11 is a great seed, but not when you're playing VCU in the first round (yes, good chance they would eat us alive). I live in Virginia, I get more VCU exposure than most of you, and this is NOT a good matchup for CU. They have their off-nights, they're not unbeatable, but I would really prefer to avoid them.
 
I'm starting to get a bad feeling about our tourney shot. We REALLY need to sweep the Oregon schools this weekend.
 
azbuff said:
I'm starting to get a bad feeling about our tourney shot. We REALLY need to sweep the Oregon schools this weekend.
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We're in very good shape. A top 50 road loss at Cal did no serious damage. Our RPI is 28, or resume is solid. Our chances from a highly accurate matrix composite puts it at 97.97%. One more win ices it (please let's sweep this week). The true bubble is embrassingly weak, and the factors that led to the snub in 2011 simply aren't present with our résumé.
 
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I know Lunardi is treated like god in the world of bracketology, but I would focus more on who he has in and out and the general seeding area and not so much exactly where he has CU or any team slotted.

Consider what he predicted last year.

Lunardi correctly picked 67 of the 68 tournament teams, missing only by picking Seton Hall instead of Iona. He got the seed right for 35 of the 68 teams (51%). He either got the seed or was off by one for 61 of the 68 teams (90%). That may be where the real expertise lies. Of the seven he missed, he was only off by two seeds for six. Seton Hall he missed because he had them in the tournament.
 
jgisland said:
I know Lunardi is treated like god in the world of bracketology, but I would focus more on who he has in and out and the general seeding area and not so much exactly where he has CU or any team slotted.

Consider what he predicted last year.

Lunardi correctly picked 67 of the 68 tournament teams, missing only by picking Seton Hall instead of Iona. He got the seed right for 35 of the 68 teams (51%). He either got the seed or was off by one for 61 of the 68 teams (90%). That may be where the real expertise lies. Of the seven he missed, he was only off by two seeds for six. Seton Hall he missed because he had them in the tournament.
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Agreed. And not a whole lot of stock to put into this until Lunardi's final Selection Sunday bracket, when he makes furious changes on a scale you don't see until then.

Much of CU being where Lunardi has CU currently may also have to do with all the likely seedings of the other Pac-12 teams, and trying to avoid first/second game matchups. CU may have been knocked down a seed-line for this very reason.
 
CVilleBuff said:
We're in very good shape. A top 50 road loss at Cal did no serious damage. Our RPI is 28, or resume is solid. Our chances from a highly accurate matrix composite puts it at 97.97%. One more win ices it (please let's sweep this week). The true bubble is embrassingly weak, and the factors that led to the snub in 2011 simply aren't present with our résumé.
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I said this in another thread, but if we split these last 2 home games (particularly if the win comes against lowly OSU) and then lose our first game in the conference tourney, there'll be reason to be nervous on selection Sunday.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
I said this in another thread, but if we split these last 2 home games (particularly if the win comes against lowly OSU) and then lose our first game in the conference tourney, there'll be reason to be nervous on selection Sunday.
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There will be reason to be nervous, but the argument is if we beat OSU, a loss to Oregon isn't a bad loss. I really think nothing except 3 more losses straight leaves us in any real danger. I'm certainly not trying to put that to the test, though. This team better come out ready to take care of business. It sounds weak, but this just isn't a normal year... The true bubble is SO weak
 
Palm having Ohio State as a 7 seed (vs CU) just looks downright silly now. Ohio State just won at Indiana. Now 22-7 (12-5), Some excellent wins, no bad losses, one game out of 1st in the B1G. They're simply not going to be a 7 seed, not even close.
 
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