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Other games weekend of 10/6-10/8

UCLA's upcoming stretch of @ Wazzu, Utah, @ CU suddenly looks pretty daunting, although I have no doubt that Wazzu will be absolutely horrendous in a remaining game or two per usual.

ASU has a sure-thing loss in @ Washington later on, but they've got Utah and Wazzu at home. They visit Tucson (and Eugene)
 
Saw ASU's backup QB on crutches. If Wilkins can't go, who do they have at QB? CU should beat ASU like a drum.
 
Jalapeno said:
And a win over Stanford looks doable. If that happens, CU most likely goes 3-1 on the road in the PAC-12...really helps CU's chances for the South.
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If we (or any other South team) make it to 7-2, it's very hard to imagine they wouldn't be the division champ. The winner may well be 6-3 on tiebreaker.

Hard to figure it all out with 6 games remaining, of course, but here's what I see: There's 1 South team *currently* in marginally better shape than CU: Utah. Why? Because their one loss is to a North team (Cal). The good news: Utah has 4 remaining on the road AND have to deal with Washington in SLC in addition to that.

We're the only South team with 4 remaining home games and everyone except UCLA has to deal with Washington (0-3 Arizona has already faced them, but they're essentially the first South team out of the running. Arizona pulling off a couple South wins would be helpful at this point, really.)

USC already has 2 Pac losses, thank god, and still have @ Washington and @UCLA. They're the biggest longterm threat due having the tiebreaker over us.
 
Ideally, the Buffs get to 6 wins before the Wazzu and Utah games. Don't want any "must win" games in late November, even at home. Despite what some folks believe, CU's defense isn't great and we will need to win at least one difficult high-scoring shootout in which the offense just takes a game over. I'm not tracking the scenarios of winning the P12 South, just the road to a Bowl Game at this point.

Other side notes: WYO whips the Cadets in Laramie. Bohl is finally getting the ship turned. CSU wins it's Summer Camp Pillow Fight with USU.
 
We need Stanford to beat Notre Dame next week because I don't see the Cardinal losing 4 straight.

Here's what I think the percent chance of winning our remaining games looks like.

ASU 58%
@ Stanford 40%
UCLA 51%
@Arizona 50%
Wazzu 48%
Utah 50%

And on a side note, Bama and Ohio state lose next week. Gonna be a huge shakeup in the polls. Nebraska loses to Indiana as well.
 
Way too early to predict outcomes. The PAC-South has been like this since we joined, except we were never part of the race. All the teams will drop games, and probably a few that shouldn't.

USC is the team to beat in my book. They should have won on the road @Utah and are clearly getting better each week. Their QB is legit. They blew ASU out at home last week. They manhandled the Buffs for much of that game and were physically superior. And they know how to play defense.

Utah, UCLA and Colorado can all play defense. Utah is loose with the ball and will lose games due to their QB throwing some picks. He's awful and spectacular all at the same time. UCLA's offense has been awful all year and with Rosen not getting protection, every game is contested. If he's out, the backup doesn't look too good. They ran for MINUS net rushing yards last night.

The Arizona schools cannot compete for a title with those defenses.
 
Unleash Hell said:
We need Stanford to beat Notre Dame next week because I don't see the Cardinal losing 4 straight.

Here's what I think the percent chance of winning our remaining games looks like.

ASU 58%
@ Stanford 40%
UCLA 51%
@Arizona 50%
Wazzu 48%
Utah 50%

And on a side note, Bama and Ohio state lose next week. Gonna be a huge shakeup in the polls. Nebraska loses to Indiana as well.
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How do you defend the 1% disparity in our chances between UCLA and Arizona and the 2% between Wazzu and Utah? Just trying to understand the slim margins.
 
Baylor, Tennesee & Nebraska are far and away the most over-rated teams in the polls. Also my most hated programs at the moment. All Dirty!
Big 12 is weak throughout. No championship teams in that division IMO. Baylor has to be derailed but their schedule looks weak.
Big 10 is strong at top, falls off quick. Nebraska schedule is full on retarded. Need them to get smacked by Indiana, good call @Unleash Hell ! I don't see Wisconsin as a great team.
Need Nebraska to get rolled if they make the B1G championship game by 50 at least!

Va Tech poised to jump forward.
 
Uncle Ken said:
How do you defend the 1% disparity in our chances between UCLA and Arizona and the 2% between Wazzu and Utah? Just trying to understand the slim margins.
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I have no idea. Just what my gut told me, other than Stanford they are all about 50/50 or there abouts
 
ESPN gave us a 40% chance of beating USC. Here are their current predictions of a Buff win on the remaining schedule:

ASU: 76%
Stanford: 46%
UCLA: 42%
Arizona: 66%
WSU: 60%
Utah: 72%
 
Anyone else bet the over on the Miami-FSU game? I got severely ****ed, took the over at 43.5 and that PAT would have almost sealed a win for me.
 
I thought Houston would win pretty handily but Navy would make it a game. I watched a lot of it, they were just flat better yesterday.
 
The Big 12 looks like a blazing dumpster and I couldn't be happier. Thankful for Washington at the moment or else the national talking heads would be saying that about the Pac-12, assuming they bothered to talk about the conference at all.
 
onealcd said:
Hahahaha now we are going to make fun of Herman for losing at navy? The guy beat Oklahoma and lost one game last year and now he sucks?
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Yes, losing to a service academy coming off a blow-out loss to AFA, (who subsequently lost to WYO)....heck yeah, we get to make fun of him. Didn't say he sucks, just that he's a tad over-rated, all things considered.
But, yeah, you're right, Houston beating up on that OU "D".....that OU defense looked just great against tOSU and almost as good yesterday against a short, true FR QB playing for a weak Charlie Strong offense! Mike Stoops is really gonna get another chance at HC because of his OU chops on "D".
 
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