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RPI Watch: 2018 Season

Buffnik

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
As always, we'll look at CU's schedule in terms of RPI impact of each game while tracking our opponents. Stuff on the RPI and the NCAA Team Sheet is located below the Tables.

Schedule Table
OpponentDateLocationResultRPI
Northern Colorado11/10HomeWin114
Denver11/14HomeWin238
Quinnipiac11/17NeutralWin279
Drake11/18NeutralWin145
Mercer11/19NeutralWin206
Air Force11/26HomeWin234
Colorado State12/2AwayLoss209
New Mexico12/6HomeWin180
Xavier12/9AwayLoss2
San Diego12/12HomeLoss158
South Dakota State12/15HomeWin62
Iowa12/22NeutralLoss139
Oregon State12/29AwayLoss159
Oregon12/31AwayLoss80
Arizona State1/4HomeWin26
Arizona1/6HomeWin18
USC1/10AwayLoss50
UCLA1/13AwayWin53
Washington State1/18HomeWin186
Washington1/20HomeLoss46
Arizona1/25AwayLoss18
Arizona State1/27AwayLoss26
Utah2/2HomeWin60
Cal2/7HomeWin190
Stanford2/11HomeWin99
Washington State2/15Away186
Washington2/17Away46
USC2/21Home50
UCLA2/25Home53
Utah3/3Away60
P12 Tourney (TBD)3/7Neutral
P12 Tourney (TBD)3/8Neutral
P12 Tourney (TBD)3/9Neutral
P12 Tourney (TBD)3/10Neutral
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Colorado Team Sheet Table
D1 RecordColumn1 (30/50/75)Column2 (75/100/135)Column3 (160/200/240)Column4 (351)RPI
15-103-42-23-47-064
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
RPI for Selection
While the Selection Committee considers other factors, the RPI is extremely predictive. Since the tourney went to 68 teams, the highest RPI program from the Big Six conferences to not make the Dance was Missouri in 2009 with a 49. The lowest Big Six RPI to make the Dance? USC in 2011 at 67. Basically, if a Big Six team is Top 50 on Selection Sunday you can assume they're in.

Team Sheet Details
Also of note is that the Team Sheets the NCAA will use this year will be organized into 4 Columns.

Column 1: Home games vs. teams ranked 1-30, neutral games vs. top-50 teams, road games against top-75 teams
Column 2: Home games vs. teams ranked 31-75, neutral games vs. 51-100, road games vs. 76-135
Column 3: Home games vs. teams ranked 76-160, neutral games vs. 101-200, road games vs. 136-240
Column 4: Home games vs. teams ranked 161-351, neutral games vs. 201-351, road games vs. 241-351

As we talk about our opponents, we'll need to focus on which Column they end up in on our Team Sheet.

How RPI is Calculated
The RPI (Rating Percentage Index) is a measure of strength of schedule and how a team does against that schedule. It does not consider things like margin of victory, only whether or not a team won and where the game was played. It is used by the NCAA as one of their factors in deciding which teams to invite to the NCAA tournament and where to seed them.

The basic formula is 25% team winning percentage (WP), 50% opponents' average winning percentage (OWP), and 25% opponents' opponents' average winning percentage (OOWP).

For the 2004-05 season, the formula was changed to give more weight to road wins vs home wins. A team's win total for RPI purposes is 1.4 * road wins + neutral site wins + 0.6 * home wins. A team's losses is calculated as 0.6 * road losses + neutral site losses + 1.4 * home losses.

For example, a team that is 4-0 at home and 2-7 on the road has a RPI record of 5.2 wins (1.4 * 2 + 0.6 * 4) and 4.2 losses (0.6 * 7). That means that even though it is 6-7, for RPI purposes, it is above .500 (5.2-4.2).

This "weighted" record is only used for the 25% of the formula that is each team's winning percentage. The regular team records are used to calculate OWP and OOWP.

As always, only games against Division I opponents count in the RPI.
 
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Nice to be able to type "Win". (y)

Next up is Air Force on Sunday. They're 2-0 with games against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Pacific the next 2 days. Hopefully they come into the Keg at 4-0 -- and they've got a good chance to make that happen.
 
In the Creighton vs UCLA game, Creighton had no way to match up with Welsh on the interior.

So he got his. 16 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocked shots.

But Creighton won by 11.

They turned that matchup issue around by spreading 5-out on the offensive end while going smaller. Forced Welsh to guard on the perimeter while opening up a ton of driving lanes. Plus, it made Creigton stronger in the open court. They pushed pace and won 100-89.

That has to be CU's blueprint for when we play the Bruins. Play Siewert a lot of minutes and go 5-wide with Wright-Wright-Dom/Brown-King out on the perimeter with him. Drive & either finish or dish. Pressure the ball for quick UCLA shots on the other end. Don't let them play the way that fits their personnel better.
 
not sure where to put this, but this thread is just as good as any other...Michael Porter Jr out for the season... ....wow. Probably doesn't affect CU in most ways - save for those convoluted, RPI relationships.
 
Goose said:
GOD DAMMIT IOWA! If you ****ers lose to Nebraska on Friday to complete this I swear to God I will hunt your athletic department down and haunt them forever.
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It's Iowa, you know they're going to beat Wisconsin and some other team they have no business beating
 
Goose said:
I know, but ****, I don't want that RPI hit.
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We've got to beat them now to avoid an issue.

However, this helps South Dakota State's strength of schedule a lot and could very well mean that they won't be a Column 4 game in Boulder. That would be a very good thing.
 
Buffnik said:
We've got to beat them now to avoid an issue.

However, this helps South Dakota State's strength of schedule a lot and could very well mean that they won't be a Column 4 game in Boulder. That would be a very good thing.
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I'm gonna defer to you on the RPI thing. But I assumed (possibly incorrectly) that they were already out of column 4. I was more concerned with getting Iowa as high as possible.

EDIT - forgot, because it's a home game they need to be higher than just 200. So you're right. This isn't the horrible outcome I thought it was.

I still will wreck their **** if Iowa loses to Nebraska this Friday though.
 
Goose said:
I'm gonna defer to you on the RPI thing. But I assumed (possibly incorrectly) that they were already out of column 4. I was more concerned with getting Iowa as high as possible.

EDIT - forgot, because it's a home game they need to be higher than just 200. So you're right. This isn't the horrible outcome I thought it was.

I still will wreck their **** if Iowa loses to Nebraska this Friday though.
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Iowa needs to beat Nebraska and snag some pelts in B1G play. They still have every chance of being a Column 2 as a Top 100 RPI on a neutral court. I'd be very surprised if they're not at least Column 3 as RPI 101-200 with the schedule they'll play.
 
jcatcher said:
Wisconsin isn't any good this year. They have one All-American and a bunch of scrubs. Losses already to Xavier and Baylor.
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A lot of teams in the country would lose to Xavier and Baylor. Either way, Iowa should not beat them, but you know they'll pull upsets.
 
jcatcher said:
Wisconsin isn't any good this year. They have one All-American and a bunch of scrubs. Losses already to Xavier and Baylor.
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I agree they're not great this year, but losses to X and **** bailer don't really prove that point, both very good teams
 
UCLA got a big one for the Pac. Move to 4-0 with a 72-70 win over Wisconsin.
 
Buffnik said:
UCLA got a big one for the Pac. Move to 4-0 with a 72-70 win over Wisconsin.
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cmgoods said:
3-1. They lost to Creighton yesterday 100-89.
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Buffnik said:
4-1, actually. Good catch.
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giphy.gif
 
Pac-12 is not looking good so far, folks. Maybe that's good for us this season. But damn. Arizona just lost to NC State.
 
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