Not ideal, just want one of those 2-3 to be us.
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RPI Watch: 2018 Season
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
We are surprisingly good for such a young team this early in the season. If they continue to develop, I haven't seen anything from any of the other P12 teams that scares me- is there any reason that we should consider a P12 tourney championship out of the realm of possibility?
Yes. Guys, I’m very encouraged by our start - the team has shown a LOT more early than I expected. But we’ve played a BAD schedule. We’ve played one top 100 KenPom team - #86 Mercer. Drake is the only other top 200 opponent we’ve faced and they’re currently 197. Meanwhile the worst team in the P12 is #163 Wazzu. I realize these rankings are still really early but we’ve played the five worst teams we’ll see this season already. The schedule is about to get a lot tougher.
I mentioned this is a coversation with some Junta members but honestly my goal is 6-12 / 7-11 in the P12. Protect home court as much as possible and steal a game on the road if we can. That’d put us around .500 for the season and with a chance at an NIT bid.
I was starting to feel pretty good about the Buffs chances, then I researched Buffnik’s RPI forecast. They predict the team finishes 17-13 with a RPI of 73.8. That would mean going 11-13 from here on out.
Need to see what we have against higher caliber opponents.
Yeah, I happened to watch a few minutes of UNC v. MSU last night. The length on teams like that would kill us. We're going to need more from the frontcourt going forward.
Yes, the season will definitely get rougher. But we might actually have a couple guys on the team that are the kind of players that push you for some magical conference tourney run. Sure, we need lighting to strike 4 days in a row, but I feel the energy that could maybe make it happen. Have to see how it develops of course, but in several of the previous years I didn't see the glimmer of that lightning.
dyemeduke
Well-Known Member
[/QUOTE]
Performances this so far definitely hurt the RPI of PAC 12 teams and the conference overall. This in turn means trouble for teams like Colorado who are likely to be on the bubble at best come March. We should all be rooting for PAC 12 teams to win every non-conference game. I think that this is going to be a down year for the PAC 12 in terms of NCAA tourney bids ... maybe 3 or 4, tops.[/QUOTE]
And that's unfortunate, because going into this season, I was excited about the PAC being the second best conference after the ACC. I thought we had a lot of solid teams on paper.... ...
And I personally don't think we'll be a bubble team - I think we'll be NIT bound, if that, and with such a young team, I'm fine with that as long as we compete. I would love to be proven wrong though. I was very high on McKinley Wright going into the year, but even I'm impressed so far. I hope your expectation are more correct than mine.
Performances this so far definitely hurt the RPI of PAC 12 teams and the conference overall. This in turn means trouble for teams like Colorado who are likely to be on the bubble at best come March. We should all be rooting for PAC 12 teams to win every non-conference game. I think that this is going to be a down year for the PAC 12 in terms of NCAA tourney bids ... maybe 3 or 4, tops.[/QUOTE]
And that's unfortunate, because going into this season, I was excited about the PAC being the second best conference after the ACC. I thought we had a lot of solid teams on paper.... ...
And I personally don't think we'll be a bubble team - I think we'll be NIT bound, if that, and with such a young team, I'm fine with that as long as we compete. I would love to be proven wrong though. I was very high on McKinley Wright going into the year, but even I'm impressed so far. I hope your expectation are more correct than mine.
jumped ship
Well-Known Member
speaking of length, I know he wouldn't have red-shirted last year had he not transferred...but Tre'shaun is basically averaging 20, 10, and 4 for Toledo through 5 games. Happy for him
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aghcsm
Well-Known Member
Winning the P12 tourney is always within the theoretical realm of possibility for all conference teams, that’s why it’s played. How possible?Depends how much the team develops. Yes things are looking good, can’t do any more at this point than win all your games.
Goose downed!
@jgisland did a nice deep dive on twitter into our numbers. Here's some info:
To add further color to his notes, King is putting up some insane shooting numbers. 59th in the nation in eFG% and 76th in TS%. McKinley is no slouch himself either, at 272nd for eFG% and 281st for TS%. King's ORtg is 235th in the nation right now (124.4) which makes sense when you see JG's comments about his shot selection. McKinley is 151st in the nation in Assist Rate and somehow 325th in the nation in Blocked Shot Rate. Namon is pulling the Tad special - he's not fouling a lot (only 2.3 per 40 minutes), but getting fouled a lot (6.3 per 40 min) and getting to the line a lot (121st in the nation).
Unheralded player - DeLeon Brown. He has an ORtg of 114.5 (5th on the team - although two ahead of him are Schwartz and Siewart who are only playing 33% of the team's minutes), he's not turning the ball over (only 8% of his possessions - 112th in the nation) and is 412th in the nation in steal percentage.
Now that I've given you sunshine & lollipops, I'm gonna rain on your parade a little bit. We still turn the ball over more than average, and we're not shooting well from 3 point land at all (257th in the nation). And adding on to my concerns about our schedule from earlier, we've played the 309th hardest schedule in the nation overall, and defensively we've played the 336th hardest schedule. There are only 351 teams. Further, using KenPom rankings, five of our six games so far have been the five worst opponents we'll see all season. Mercer is the 14th best team on our schedule. Luckily for us, CSU is the 7th worst team we'll face this year, so our first real road test will at least be against one of the worst teams we'll see this season.
To add further color to his notes, King is putting up some insane shooting numbers. 59th in the nation in eFG% and 76th in TS%. McKinley is no slouch himself either, at 272nd for eFG% and 281st for TS%. King's ORtg is 235th in the nation right now (124.4) which makes sense when you see JG's comments about his shot selection. McKinley is 151st in the nation in Assist Rate and somehow 325th in the nation in Blocked Shot Rate. Namon is pulling the Tad special - he's not fouling a lot (only 2.3 per 40 minutes), but getting fouled a lot (6.3 per 40 min) and getting to the line a lot (121st in the nation).
Unheralded player - DeLeon Brown. He has an ORtg of 114.5 (5th on the team - although two ahead of him are Schwartz and Siewart who are only playing 33% of the team's minutes), he's not turning the ball over (only 8% of his possessions - 112th in the nation) and is 412th in the nation in steal percentage.
Now that I've given you sunshine & lollipops, I'm gonna rain on your parade a little bit. We still turn the ball over more than average, and we're not shooting well from 3 point land at all (257th in the nation). And adding on to my concerns about our schedule from earlier, we've played the 309th hardest schedule in the nation overall, and defensively we've played the 336th hardest schedule. There are only 351 teams. Further, using KenPom rankings, five of our six games so far have been the five worst opponents we'll see all season. Mercer is the 14th best team on our schedule. Luckily for us, CSU is the 7th worst team we'll face this year, so our first real road test will at least be against one of the worst teams we'll see this season.
schedule wizardry by Tad this first part of the season imo.
aghcsm
Well-Known Member
Just because I don’t know - does the HC have a big role in selecting who and when and where for the upcoming season? Obviously only regarding OOC games and of course home-and away commitments may already be in place. Either way, starting with weak opponents is generally a good practice, and particularly beneficial with a bunch of new guys.
in bball, the HC basically builds the schedule for each season during the offseason prior. Sometimes a few pieces are already there due to home and homes or other things, but Tad is the guy who runs the schedule. Which is why we don't know the schedule until late in the year.
aghcsm
Well-Known Member
In that case - good work Tad!
Buffs Basketball Fan
Well-Known Member
South Dakota State up 7 with 11 minutes to play at Wichita State
OP updated with current RPIs of all teams CU has played.
Buffs finished the non-conference at 8-4 without any wins of much quality. 0-1 in Column 1 games, 0-1 in Column 2 games, 2-2 in Column 3 games and 6-0 in Column 4 games.
Avoiding the bad loss was a big deal that gives hope, though. Nothing ugly on the resume and puts the Buffs at #106 RPI, which is definitely within striking range of the NIT and leaves open the possibility for the Dance if CU does well in conference play.
Pac-12 has some opportunities at the top with ASU at #3, UA at #21, USC at #43, Utah at #56, UCLA at #59, and Washington at #70. These are all teams the Buffs play twice (along with WSU at #150). It may not be good for overall conference record but it's great for RPI that the teams we will only play once are #185 Cal, #199 Stanford, #91 Oregon and #203 Oregon State.
As has been mentioned a lot on this board, the Pac-12 had a horrible non-conference season as a whole. We're sitting last among the Power 6 conferences.
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]The Pac-12 has the 2nd best SOS, but the problem is that the conference lost almost all its big games while dropping some real clunkers.
The Diamond Head Classic finale can improve this a bit.
USC plays NM State (#31) today at 4pm on ESPN2.
On Wednesday, we'll start conference play around the country.
Buffs finished the non-conference at 8-4 without any wins of much quality. 0-1 in Column 1 games, 0-1 in Column 2 games, 2-2 in Column 3 games and 6-0 in Column 4 games.
Avoiding the bad loss was a big deal that gives hope, though. Nothing ugly on the resume and puts the Buffs at #106 RPI, which is definitely within striking range of the NIT and leaves open the possibility for the Dance if CU does well in conference play.
Pac-12 has some opportunities at the top with ASU at #3, UA at #21, USC at #43, Utah at #56, UCLA at #59, and Washington at #70. These are all teams the Buffs play twice (along with WSU at #150). It may not be good for overall conference record but it's great for RPI that the teams we will only play once are #185 Cal, #199 Stanford, #91 Oregon and #203 Oregon State.
As has been mentioned a lot on this board, the Pac-12 had a horrible non-conference season as a whole. We're sitting last among the Power 6 conferences.
| Conference | Rank | Conf RPI | OOC W-L (%) | OOC Sos Rk | OOC SOS |
Big 12 | 1 | 0.5927 | 101-16 (86.32%) | 7 | 0.5195 |
Big East | 2 | 0.5868 | 99-23 (81.15%) | 5 | 0.5268 |
SEC | 3 | 0.5865 | 121-40 (75.16%) | 1 | 0.5485 |
ACC | 4 | 0.5800 | 144-37 (79.56%) | 6 | 0.5228 |
Big Ten | 5 | 0.5623 | 116-44 (72.50%) | 8 | 0.5194 |
Pac-12 | 6 | 0.5540 | 103-44 (70.07%) | 4 | 0.5277 |
The Diamond Head Classic finale can improve this a bit.
USC plays NM State (#31) today at 4pm on ESPN2.
On Wednesday, we'll start conference play around the country.
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ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
We need Iowa, Oregon State, and CSU to step up and get some big wins.
BehindEnemyLines
beware the habu
Xavier lost on the road. May have been looking ahead.
Tied at 77 with 35 seconds left