Deleted member 807
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When MacIntyre actually wins 5 or 6 at CU, then is the time to ratchet up my expectations.
I've been expecting a bowl game every year for most of the last ten, and that approach has gotten old.
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How many wins for 2015 CU Football?
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
When MacIntyre actually wins 5 or 6 at CU, then is the time to ratchet up my expectations.
I've been expecting a bowl game every year for most of the last ten, and that approach has gotten old.
somebody
Well-Known Member
I'm afraid of yet another Baer defense giving up close to 40 points a game. Will there be an end to that? Biggest question mark.
If we only win 2 next year, we'll have the answer on "progress". 2 wins is totally unacceptable IMO.
I was trying to nicely say that number would or should make some seats including the big one uncomfortably hot.
@Hawaii ---> WIN
UMASS ---> WIN
CSU (Denver) ---> WIN
Nicholls State ---> WIN
Oregon
@Arizona State
Arizona
@Oregon State ---> WIN
@UCLA
Stanford
USC
@ Washington State ---> WIN
@Utah ---> WIN
We were a whole lot more competitive than we have been in recent years. Last year and the year before, we'd fall behind, and simply give up. This year's team was different. There was a new fight about them. The win total this year was low, and not impressive at all. It didn't look like any growth. There was though. A bit different play calling down the stretch in some games, we could have had 2-3 more wins. The staff nor the players gave up this season. For the first time in many many years, I am really excited and looking forward to next season.
UMASS ---> WIN
CSU (Denver) ---> WIN
Nicholls State ---> WIN
Oregon
@Arizona State
Arizona
@Oregon State ---> WIN
@UCLA
Stanford
USC
@ Washington State ---> WIN
@Utah ---> WIN
We were a whole lot more competitive than we have been in recent years. Last year and the year before, we'd fall behind, and simply give up. This year's team was different. There was a new fight about them. The win total this year was low, and not impressive at all. It didn't look like any growth. There was though. A bit different play calling down the stretch in some games, we could have had 2-3 more wins. The staff nor the players gave up this season. For the first time in many many years, I am really excited and looking forward to next season.
We haven't won 3 conference road games since 2002, when we went 9-5 and lost to Wisconsin in the Alamo Bowl.
Doesn't change my opinion on anything I posted.
We have a better shot against ASU than we do against AZ. I don't care if Zona is in Boulder or not, they are a much better team next year than ASU. The problem with the schedule is all the "winnable" conference games are on the road, while the ones we expect to lose are at home. However, as we saw this year, a few plays in UCLA, ASU, Cal, Utah and OSU go our way, and we're talking about a 6-7 win season, so I won't put it past next year's team to upset a few of the upper tier squads in Boulder.
FLounder is right. Zona and ASU are both good teams, but going on the road and beating ASU is a whole lot more difficult than beating UA at home.
Excited to have stanford at home. Think we get a good chance to knock off one of the Pac-12 "name" schools. Expect them to be down, compared to their recent run.
For any shot at a bowl, we HAVE to start 4-0. The schedulers weren't nice to us next year. However I think having CSU 3rd next year really helps us in that game. Not sure what to expect out of them at this point. Hawaii should be tougher, but so should we, probably will be way too close though. NSU and UMass SHOULD be comfortable wins.
OSU looks winnable, although they nailed their coaching hire. WSU is always winnable against the pirate. Our next best shot is probably zona at home. If I had to call out 3 conference wins to get to 7, those would be the 3.
I see 5 wins though. 3-1 non con and OSU and WSU. Tough schedule next year.
For any shot at a bowl, we HAVE to start 4-0. The schedulers weren't nice to us next year. However I think having CSU 3rd next year really helps us in that game. Not sure what to expect out of them at this point. Hawaii should be tougher, but so should we, probably will be way too close though. NSU and UMass SHOULD be comfortable wins.
OSU looks winnable, although they nailed their coaching hire. WSU is always winnable against the pirate. Our next best shot is probably zona at home. If I had to call out 3 conference wins to get to 7, those would be the 3.
I see 5 wins though. 3-1 non con and OSU and WSU. Tough schedule next year.
Everyone is entitled to one, no matter how unrealistic.
Damn straight!
Not exactly sure how you see it "unrealistic". I am one of the first to recognize the shortcoming of the teams I root for. I am hardly the optimist when it comes to any of my sports teams.
If you can tell me one trend that has lasted forever, then YOU have a good argument. History changes each year. Why not CU in '15? The staff have the players at least not laying down and quitting. The teams I have as W's on the road aren't world beaters by any stretch. We were very competitive with them this year, sans WashSt - but you never know what the pirate is gonna throw out onto the field.
Either way, I don't see it being unrealistic or even overly optimistic. I'm just basing my W/L prediction based on the product put onto the field, and the team growth the last 2 seasons.
somebody
Well-Known Member
Not sure what you mean by forever, maybe this just seems like forever. You're welcome to your opinion and I applaud your fandom, but don't claim realism. This is real (road conference games):
| 2014 |
| S 27 at California ......................... (2OT) L 56-59 4:01 |
| O 18 at Southern California ................... L 28-56 3:17 |
| N 8 at Arizona....................................... L 20-38 3:24 |
| N 22 at Oregon ........................................ L 10-44 3:01 |
| 2013 |
| S 28 at Oregon State .............................. L 17-44 3:28 |
| O 12 at Arizona State (N) ....................... L 13-54 3:00 |
| N 2 at UCLA ........................................... L 23-45 3:16 |
| N 9 at Washington (N) ........................ L 7-59 2:48 |
| N 30 at Utah ............................................ L 17-24 3:17 |
| 2012 |
| S 22 at Washington State ...................... W 35-34 3:47 |
| O 20 at Southern California ................... L 6-50 3:14 |
| O 27 at Oregon ........................................ L 14-70 3:01 |
| N 10 at Arizona........................................ L 31-56 3:07 |
| 2011 |
| O 8 at Stanford ...................................... L 7-48 2:53 |
| O 15 at Washington ................................ L 24-52 2:53 |
| O 29 at Arizona State .............................. L 14-48 3:05 |
| N 19 at UCLA ........................................... L 6-45 2:54 |
| N 25 at Utah ........................................... W 17-14 3:09 |
| 2010 |
| O 9 at Missouri (N) ............................... L 0-26 3:02 62,695 |
| O 30 at Oklahoma (N) ............................ L 10-43 3:30 |
| N 6 at Kansas ........................................ L 45-52 3:19 |
| N 26 at Nebraska ................................... L 17-45 3:11 |
I know the records. I know the results. Posting that doesn't really add anything.
My point is that the trend will not last forever. That itself is not "unrealistic". There is no fandom in that. Cal was ONE play away. Young team, still learning. I can accept that. For everyone who just want's to put L's up each year on our road games... that is unrealistic.
My point is that the trend will not last forever. That itself is not "unrealistic". There is no fandom in that. Cal was ONE play away. Young team, still learning. I can accept that. For everyone who just want's to put L's up each year on our road games... that is unrealistic.
:nod:
Last time I checked, every team doesn't have the same exact record every season. It's very reasonable to predict that CU will actually build upon its record and improve as they team matures. I think we're returning 9 starters on offense and 9 on defense, plus getting back guys from injury who had started in the past. Couple that with a lot of close games in 2014 and a lot of 2015 opponents with the question mark of breaking in a new QB.
I don't know if CU will have a breakout season back to relevancy and bowl qualification, but I do know that it's reasonable to say that 2015 is a year that stacks up as an opportunity for it to happen.
As I said in my original prediction post in this thread.... For the first time in a very long time, I am very excited for next season.
The product put on the field the past 12 years has been unable to do that, but go ahold and believe. I like it, I'm just not buying in to it.
I think you missed the "last 2 years" part.
This team has improved leaps and bounds in that time. Although the W/L doesn't show it, the play is much better.
That's fair, too.
Nobody should feel any certainty right now.
There's improvement. But there's a ton of improvement needed from our low point and where we need to be to win.
I personally think we're ready to win more than we lose, but it's just an opinion.
The past can absolutely be used to predict the future, but when people use one example it doesn't have all that much merit, there's just too small of a sample size from team to team each year to use one example. If you want to look at trends use the whole sample size and go from there.
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It is fair to look at the results in the standings.
It's also fair to look at how the team has trended. Compare the gain from 2012 to 2013 to 2014. We have seen significant incremental steps even if they haven't yet resulted in a jump in wins. If we get a similar gain this season then we should see it impact the win total. Not necessarily enough to get us in a bowl but enough to show real progress.
To me 4-5 wins including beating a couple real teams would be significant progress and something to continue building on.
It's also fair to look at how the team has trended. Compare the gain from 2012 to 2013 to 2014. We have seen significant incremental steps even if they haven't yet resulted in a jump in wins. If we get a similar gain this season then we should see it impact the win total. Not necessarily enough to get us in a bowl but enough to show real progress.
To me 4-5 wins including beating a couple real teams would be significant progress and something to continue building on.
somebody
Well-Known Member
I think you missed the last 2 years part, where we have zero of those road wins and the defense has actually gotten worse. We need a big change to make a big improvement. I don't see it, but I hope you're right.
somebody
Well-Known Member
We'll obviously never have the sample size to use statistics - the t test requires a minimum of 30 sample size and we only have one year before your team and your opponents change again. I'm not trying to use statistics, I'm just looking at the performance from these coaches and the core of these players. Without a big change in one or both, it's unrealistic to expect a big change in results.
In terms of a full season, I had more fun watching the Buffs this year than I have since 2001. The only real outlier during that time was the OU win in 2007 - that was amazing, but it was only one game. The GB years after 2001 always had a turd in there that left a really bad taste for the season and you could sense things were going downhill even though we kept winning the north division.
It feels like we were better this year. I enjoyed the team competing until the last moments of most games.
All that being said, I absolutely will not set myself up to be pissed off if we don't win seven and go to a bowl game. 5 wins in that schedule would obviously be +3 overall from last year and +2 in quality wins from 2013 when we had 4 wins, but 2 were against FCS schools. If we had a better draw on the home slate, I would be picking 6 wins, but Stanford, OU, USC, and Arizona is brutal. 2007 is the last time we won 2 conference road games - 7 seasons have passed since then and we have only won 2 conference road games total in the time frame. Yes, 2 total road conference wins in 7 seasons. The guys on next year's team were not even hosted by players who knew what it felt like to win multiple road conference games.
We absolutely have to learn how to win on the road, but it is really hard to predict winning 2-3 road conference games given our history. If we win 2, I would be ecstatic. As it is, I am predicting one, because I think we go 1-3 during the home conference slate and 3-1 in the pre-conference slate.
If I am proven wrong and we win seven - I'm going to the bowl with my oldest so she knows what it feels like to see CU have success in football.