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Official 2014 Bubble Watch Thread

Nebraska took care of Purdue by 19. Huskers are edging closer, but there's still work to be done. Road games at Illinois and Indiana along with a home game against Wisconsin will make or break them. You get the feeling it may be a year too soon, but given how weak the bubble is, they could certainly get in if they keep winning.
 
Providence narrowly avoids a disaster loss at Butler to remain on the ride side of the line.


FSU gets a big win at Pitt to keep their faint hopes alive
 
Monday:

Oklahoma State 17-10 (5-9) @ TCU 9-17 (0-14): Pokes finally ended their 7 game losing skid with a win over Texas Tech. RPI is 49. For Okie Lite, it's about just showing some life. A win at TCU will do absolutely nothing for the RPI, but it claws their Big XII record closer to respectability. They've got a rough stretch of KU, KSU, @ISU to end. Obviously a loss to TCU would be an absolute disaster and put them out. But assuming they win, if they can grab 1 or 2 of their final 3, they'll make it.

Maryland 15-12 (7-7) vs Syracuse 25-2 (12-2): Maryland is so far off the chart they aren't even a bubble team, but it's a slow night so I'll give them a mention. They have no good wins. At all. But they've avoided the bad loss thing for the most part (lost to Oregon State who's currently 101). Terp RPI is 68. With Cuse and UVA visiting College Park, they would enter the picture if they won those two (and all remaining games) paired with a deep ACC Tournament run. Highly unlikely, but they've got to find 68 deserving teams and frankly they're going to come up a few short this year when it comes to "deserving". The mid majors just don't have a whole lot of situations where there are 2 deserving teams from conferences, and major conferences like the SEC are atrocious outside of 2 squads. A few NIT caliber teams are going to sneak in, just a matter of who.
 
Tuesday:

Minnesota 17-11 (6-9) vs #20 Iowa 19-7 (8-5): Gophers are simply falling apart down the stretch, losing 6/8 including some of the weakest the B1G has to offer. RPI is 46. Gophers are right on the line right now, Lunardi has them his first team out. Bracket Matrix has them the next to last team in. They've played a very strong SOS and have beaten fellow bubbler Richmond but despite the solid OOC they didn't pick up any great wins as teams like FSU and Arkansas don't hold much value now. Nice wins over Wisconsin and Ohio State, though, but sub-100 losses to Northwestern and Purdue. Recently getting owned by Illinois on their home court doesn't look good, either. A win here against the Hawkeyes would be huge and pave the way for them to get in as long as they don't do anything stupid. After this it's @ Michigan and then Penn State at home to wrap up the regular season. If they only beat Penn State of these final 3 and enter the B1G Tournament at 18-13 (7-11) they'll have to win a couple games.

St John's 18-10 (8-7) vs Xavier 18-9 (8-6): The big bubble game of the night. Both Bracket Matrix and Lunardi have Xavier and St. John's in the field right now, both just barely. Xavier is viewed as having slightly more breathing room than St. John's. Xavier RPI is 50, St. John's 53. Both squads have one really solid win, then some wins over fellow conference bubble squads along with a couple sub 100 losses. St. John's has the easier remaining schedule. Bottom line is the winner gets a little bit of breathing room while the loser remains right near the cut line. This bubble battle involving these two programs along with Providence and Georgetown will continue into the Big East tournament.

Dayton 19-8 (7-5) @ St. Joseph's 19-7 (9-3): Another bubble battle. St. Joseph's is in right now as an 11 on both Bracket Matrix and Lunardi. However they're nearly the last team with a bye. Dayton meanwhile has come back from
the dead to make a final push, they're now up to the "first four out" on both BM and Lunardi. St. Joe's RPI sits at 38, Dayton at 55. St. Joes does not want to lose this with tricky road trips to George Washington and St. Bonaventure upcoming. Dayton meanwhile has won 6 in a row to get here but now hits a brutal stretch that has UMass, @ Saint Louis, Richmond after this. That's actually a blessing because it's an opportunity for big wins to push them into the field. When you're on the outside, playing garbage opposition won't do anything for you. Neither St. Joe's nor Dayton's fate will be decided here, but it will give us a big hint as to whether Dayton can make it and whether St. Joes can still fall out.

Missouri 19-8 (7-7) @ Georgia 15-11 (9-5): Look at the conference records of these two. It drops a big hint as to how deserving Missouri is of a bid, because we know for a fact Georgia isn't really even a basketball team, they're a bunch of athletes playing basketball. Yet UGA is going to finish 3rd in the SEC. The bubble is so weak, however, that not only do Lunardi and Bracket Matrix have Missouri still in the field, they both have Missouri still an 11 seed holding one of the final byes. Missouri has one top 50 win. They're coming off a sub 100 loss to Alabama. Missouri has lost to a bunch of teams currently huddled just inside the top 100. But put it this way: they currently have 6 losses to teams that aren't remotely close to even sniffing the NCAA Tournament. A loss here in Athens would put Missouri under .500 in the abysmal SEC after 15 games. The schedule is light the rest of the way, but that means Missouri can't improve its stock, it can only hurt it. RPI is currently 45.
 
St. Joes completely obliterated Dayton, showing why they're going to make the Dance and why Dayton probably isn't.
 
CVilleBuff said:
St. Joes completely obliterated Dayton, showing why they're going to make the Dance and why Dayton probably isn't.
Click to expand...

The only reason for the "probably" is the remote chance they could sweep their last 3 games against better teams. This is a technical "probably", folks. Dayton is not going to be Dancing this season.
 
Nice win for Xavier at St. John's. Keeps Xavier with a little breathing room while St. John's just blew a crucial chance in a winnable top 50 home game. Work to do.
 
Clemson lost at Wake Forest. That's a killer for them. Not much on the Clemson resume.
 
Buffnik said:
Clemson lost at Wake Forest. That's a killer for them. Not much on the Clemson resume.
Click to expand...
Bzdelik is still Dead Man Walking there right? I mean who knows Wellman is chair of the committee so he can use that as an excuse to not fire him because he couldn't evaluate him.
 
Minnesota beats Iowa. Crucial win for the Gophers. They needed to show some life in the worst way. Should keep them on the right side of the cut line for now.
 
Iowa looks like they're going to fall out of the Top 25 next week. The Iowa resume is mostly impressive if we're playing horseshoes (lots of close losses).
 
cubuffs85 said:
Bzdelik is still Dead Man Walking there right? I mean who knows Wellman is chair of the committee so he can use that as an excuse to not fire him because he couldn't evaluate him.
Click to expand...

If I was in charge and they got an NIT bid I'd keep him. He has improved them each year. But I'm not a delusional, impatient Wake fan, so..
 
Missouri getting the **** beat out of them at Georgia. Not sure how on earth they're still listed as holding one of the final byes, but this asskicking has to hurt (they lost to Alabama right before this). A losing record in this year's SEC at the moment??
 
Wednesday:

Richmond 18-9 (8-4) @ George Mason 9-17 (2-10): Spiders are viewed as being just out. First team left out on Bracket Matrix, second team left out by Lunardi. RPI is 47. Avoiding a bad loss like George Mason is crucial. Spiders have VCU visiting next week. If they can avoid any silly slip ups (@ Mason, @ Rhode Island) and defeat VCU, they stand a good chance.

Pittsburgh 20-7 (8-6) @ Boston College 7-20 (3-11): Pitt's stock has been falling. Lunardi has them down to a 10 seed. RPI is 46, and they just lost to mediocre FSU at home for their third straight loss and had to put away bottom dwellers Virginia Tech and Miami in 2OT and OT before that. Then you look at Pitt's resume and realize they have one (1) top 50 win this entire season (over Stanford in November). If Pitt ****s around down the stretch and loses games like this, they can find themselves in deep ****. They're lucky this is an exceptionally weak bubble year.

Tennessee 16-11 (7-7) @ Mississippi State 13-14 (3-11): Vols are on the cut line after taking a bad loss to Texas A&M this past weekend. RPI is down to 58. Lunardi still has them just in, Bracket Matrix has them out. At some point enough has to be enough when it comes to Tennessee and Missouri and their sub-par play and bad losses. A Tennessee loss to 211 ranked Mississippi State would have to be the end of the road. Tennessee has no chance to prove anything other than facing fellow undeserving squad Missouri in their final regular season game. Other than that, it's just more SEC trap games, Vanderbilt, @ Auburn. You can't gain any momentum and leapfrog teams when you blow your only chances for good conference wins. There's a tendency to overreact and call each game a "must-win" this time of year, but surely this is a "can't lose" for Tennessee who already has 3 sub-100 losses (and only 2 top 50 wins).

Cal 18-9 (9-5) @ #3 Arizona 25-2 (12-2): Bracket Matrix has Cal a 10, Lunardi has them a 9 (still trying to figure out which part of Cal getting bent over by UCLA in Berkeley and then limping past USC impressed Lunardi so much to move them up a seed). RPI is 52. Two sub-100 losses including USC. They're riding that win over Arizona for all it's worth, but have also beaten Stanford and Oregon. I get the sense Cal's situation is a little shakier than people seem to think. With that RPI at just 52 and a strong chance of going 0-2 this week, things might get a little dicey for the Bears by the time CU and Utah visit to close the regular season. Obviously a surprise win in Tucson to get a season sweep of Zona would just about lock it up, but Zona is going to be out for revenge and we know what a motivated Zona looks like.

Baylor 18-9 (6-8) @ #24 Texas 20-7 (9-5): Baylor has saved their season with 4 straight wins, most recently going in to a raucous Morgantown and crushing WVU's Dance dream. RPI is up to 43, and both Bracket Matrix and Lunardi have them as a 10 seed. Remaining schedule after this one is Texas Tech, Iowa State, @ KState. Given that Baylor is considered comfortably in as a 10 right now, even 2-2 in these last 4 would lead to a fairly worry-free Selection Sunday. Bubble is weak and despite the rather ugly conference record, they've avoided bad losses all season except for 1 (@ Texas Tech). The quality wins are there too.

Nebraska 16-10 (8-6) Illinois 15-12 (4-10): Both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix have Nebraska on the outside looking in, but they aren't far off. Husker RPI is up to 48. They've won 5 in a row and 7/8, which is a solid accomplishment in the B1G no matter who you are. They've got wins @ Michigan State, Ohio State at home, and over Minnesota. Two bad losses, UAB and Penn State. This is a big game for them, Illinois is not a horrible team (RPI is 87) but Nebraska is on the outside and this is a win they need. Remaining games after this are Northwestern, @ Indiana, Wisconsin. If they win all 4 they deserve to get in without a doubt, IMO. If they win 3, they'll need to get a couple wins in the B1G Tourney to have a legit shot. You get the feeling despite the wins over Michigan State, Ohio State and Minnesota that there are still doubts about the Huskers, so they need to win the 1 remaining regular season game against a Dance team (Wisconsin). With squads like Missouri and Tennessee ****ing up left and right, Nebraska deserves a long look if they finish strong.

Stanford 18-8 (9-5) @ Arizona State 19-8 (8-6): Lunardi has both of these squads as 9 seeds (not sure why he didn't drop ASU after getting embarrassed by Utah and losing to CU), Bracket Matrix has Stanford an 8 and ASU a 9. ASU's RPI is 33, Stanford's 40. Both are sitting pretty nicely right now. Barring a collapse (like, finishing the regular season 0-4 and limping out of the Pac12 tournament), it's hard to see how either doesn't get in. Still, this is one ASU is going to want badly after being taken out behind the woodshed by Utah, while Stanford certainly will want this as @ Arizona is up next. I wondered about ASU's weak OOC and whether they'd get away with it, but given how weak the bubble is, it sure seems like it at this point.
 
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Richmond falls @ George Mason. Spiders were right on the outside looking in, this probably kills their legitimate hopes. Bad loss.
​
 
It's rare to see such a bad night for teams that were on or near the bubble.

Boise State
Nebraska
Cal
Baylor
Indiana State
Toledo (must win MAC now)
NC State
St. Bonaventure
Richmond

All of the above lost.

I'm pulling my hair out because the exceptions came from the SEC.

Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU all won.
 
Buffnik said:
It's rare to see such a bad night for teams that were on or near the bubble.

Boise State
Nebraska
Cal
Baylor
Indiana State
Toledo (must win MAC now)
NC State
St. Bonaventure
Richmond

All of the above lost.

I'm pulling my hair out because the exceptions came from the SEC.

Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU all won.
Click to expand...

Vols are the only one of those 3 SEC with any shot, IMO.

Richmond and Nebraska really had a chance to make a move and ****ed it up. Baylor and Cal are fine for now but I think things could get dicey for Cal. Others like Boise State, Indiana State, NCSU, St. Bonnie are all complete toast and off the grid, for me at least.
 
Thursday:

Arkansas 18-9 (7-7) @ #17 Kentucky 21-6 (11-3): Arkansas probably isn't worth a listing, but with so many bubble teams stumbling I'll throw them in here. RPI is 70, but they've beaten Kentucky, SMU, and Minnesota and only have one bad loss (@ Texas A&M). If they can find a win in Rupp tomorrow for a season sweep of Kentucky and then take care of their remaining slate of Georgia, Ole Miss, @ Alabama, you figure they'd enter the SEC Tournament with at least a chance. All hinges on winning tomorrow though, if they lose, forget it.

Southern Miss 23-5 (10-3) vs Florida International 13-15 (5-8): Southern Miss is the lone C-USA chance for an at-large. RPI is 35. However, they've beaten no one (best win is #84 Louisiana Tech), three sub-100 losses. Have a very, very hard time seeing how that's an even remotely deserving resume. But yet Lunardi and Bracket Matrix do have them lurking from the 4th to 8th team out. With no opportunities for top 50 wins, they can't do anything to change their garbage resume.

Green Bay 22-5 (12-2) @ Oakland 11-18 (6-8): Green Bay is the heavy favorite to win the Horizon auto-bid, so hopefully they won't be an issue. RPI is 53. They've defeated Virginia and only lost to Wisconsin by 3. They've got 3 sub-100 losses but if they lost to Cleveland State in the Horizon Tourney, it wouldn't be a "bad loss" per se, as Cleveland State has an RPI of 86. You wonder if Green Bay showing they can hang with, and beat, the big boys carries them in if they screw up.

Georgetown 16-11 (7-8) @ Marquette 16-11 (8-6): Hoyas are coming off a win over fellow bubbler Xavier to keep their hopes alive. They're definitely on the outside looking in. Marquette is a tricky road game, and then they've got Creighton and @ Villanova to end the season. Big remaining opportunities for Georgetown to get their RPI above the 60 spot it's currently at. Reality is they may very well go 0-3 in these games, but if they can find a way to win 2/3, Georgetown will remain in the picture heading into the Big East tournament. Marquette's RPI is 76 and thus too low for me to really take them seriously at this point. Remaining games after this are @ Villanova, @ Providence, St. John's. They'd need to win all 4 remaining games to have any shot.

Oregon 18-8 (6-8) @ UCLA 21-6 (10-4): Ducks are still lurking. They've quietly won 3 straight Pac games (albeit home games against OSU, UW, and Wazzu) to hang around. RPI is 43. Not a whole lot to offer in terms of good wins, but they've beaten fellow bubblers BYU and Georgetown which could come in handy. Also have a handful of other top 100 wins. They also only have one current sub-100 loss, and it's to 103 Oregon State (so very well might change and be no bad losses). Bracket Matrix actually has Oregon in right now as an 11, while Lunardi has Oregon as his 5th team out (but that last update was a few days ago and a bunch of teams ahead of Oregon have done stupid **** since). Ducks really need to add some more quality to the resume. They have proven they can hang with the top Pac teams (lost @ Zona by 2, and at home to UCLA by 2). This is the type of road win that would get Oregon into the field. After this, it's @ USC and then ASU and Arizona visit Eugene to end the season. If the Ducks win 3/4 (including two more quality wins), they would finish 21-9 (9-9) with an RPI in the 30s. Not sure that could be turned away. Winning 3/4 is a tall order though.
 
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Arkansas wins at Kentucky in overtime for a season sweep of UK. Hogs looked like a team hungry to make a last push for a bid tonight, something no SEC team outside of the "big two" has shown yet. If they win out (very manageable schedule) and have a nice SEC tournament, they could sneak in.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Arkansas wins at Kentucky in overtime for a season sweep of UK. Hogs looked like a team hungry to make a last push for a bid tonight, something no SEC team outside of the "big two" has shown yet. If they win out (very manageable schedule) and have a nice SEC tournament, they could sneak in.
Click to expand...

Of all the SEC pretenders, I like Arkansas the best. I'm biased based on my love affair with the "40 minutes of hell" style and Coach Anderson being the heir apparent to that. But they've been the one SEC team in the bubble conversation that has consistently looked like a tourney team to me. Tennessee looks like the best of that bunch, but the Vols can also look like the worst of that bunch.
 
Buffnik said:
Of all the SEC pretenders, I like Arkansas the best. I'm biased based on my love affair with the "40 minutes of hell" style and Coach Anderson being the heir apparent to that. But they've been the one SEC team in the bubble conversation that has consistently looked like a tourney team to me. Tennessee looks like the best of that bunch, but the Vols can also look like the worst of that bunch.
Click to expand...

After tonight, they are more deserving than the Vols or Missouri, IMO. Sweep of Kentucky is very nice for the resume, and also have wins over tourney squads in SMU and Minnesota. Just one weak loss, to the Aggies very early in SEC play. Arkansas has shown now on 4 occasions it can beat Dance squads, outside of the isolated once or twice the Vols and Missouri have proven that, and Arkansas has largely avoided the bad losses that plague others.
 
Georgetown falls by 2 @ Marquette. Needed that one. Won't proclaim Georgetown dead yet given that their final 2 regular season games are Creighton and @ Villanova. If they found a way to win those they'd be in business. However, for now it's looking bleak.
 
If we're a bubble team, then I think Iowa officially joins the bubble talk with their 3rd straight loss tonight at Indiana.
 
Medford M. said:
If we're a bubble team, then I think Iowa officially joins the bubble talk with their 3rd straight loss tonight at Indiana.
Click to expand...

I'll agree with that one. I watched them for a while last night and wasn't really impressed.

There will be a bunch of rhetoric about b10 being such a tough league, but outside of the top 3, the rest are very mediocre (the luckeyes are capable of being dangerous or being bad on any given night).
 
Yale down four at Princeton early in the second half. A loss there would just about cement Harvard in the Tournament.
 
Saturday:

Our Buffs 20-8 (9-6) are @ Utah 18-9 (7-8): We're in good shape. RPI is 26, Bracket Matrix has us a 9 seed, Lunardi a 10. One more win will lock things up, although we probably get in even without a win in these final 3 due to the bubble being so weak (although it would make for a nervous Selection Sunday). Let's not let it come to that. As Nik said, if this team wants a bid then go kick down the ****ing door and seize it. Let's lock this up and get some respect back after last Saturday's embarrassment. Utah's RPI is 95, so if we do lose, it's not a bad loss. For those murmuring about Utah potentially being a bubble team: No. They chose their fate when they scheduled the 346 ranked OOC.

Dayton 18-9 (7-6) vs UMass 22-5 (9-4): Dayton's RPI is 56, they're viewed as about the 7th team out right now. Wins over Gonzaga, Cal, George Washington, but 3 sub-100 losses. Dayton probably needs all 3 remaining games: UMass, @ Saint Louis, Richmond. Tall order and unlikely.

Tennessee 17-11 (8-7) vs Vanderbilt 15-12 (7-8): Vols are right on the line. Lunardi has them in his "last four in", Bracket Matrix has them "first four out". RPI is 50. They've beaten Virginia and Xavier, but have 3 sub-100 losses. After this it's @ Auburn and then home against Missouri to end the regular season. They need all 3, Missouri will serve as essentially a bubble elimination game if they make it there without stumbling.

Baylor 18-10 (6-9) vs Texas Tech 13-15 (5-10): Baylor is seen as an 11 seed right now, holding one of the final byes. RPI is 45. Their run of 4 straight wins ended at Texas. Texas Tech at home is simply a "can't lose" game for a team in Baylor's position. They then end with Iowa State, @ Kansas State. Winning 2 of these final 3 will do the trick for Baylor. Plenty of solid wins, and only one bad loss (@ Texas Tech).

Missouri 19-9 (7-8) vs Mississippi State 13-15 (3-12): Missouri is coming off a disastrous two losses to Alabama and Georgia. Lunardi has dropped the Tigers out of the field into "first four out", while Bracket Matrix has them hanging by a thread in "last four in". RPI is 48. They've beaten UCLA, that's it for quality wins unless you want to count Tennessee. They've technically avoided bad losses except for Alabama, but the truth is they've lost to many teams who are just inside the top 100. Tigers have 7 losses to teams who aren't even remotely sniffing the NCAA Tournament. Anyone who saw Missouri these last two games knows this team doesn't belong in the Dance, and they may not even care. Mississippi State is absolutely horrendous (RPI 224). A Missouri loss would end their hopes right then and there. After that it's Texas A&M (RPI 123) and then @ Tennessee. Missouri needs all 3. Outside of a win at Tennessee, the other games hold no value whatsoever other than not losing. As I mentioned earlier, Tennessee/Missouri is shaping up to be a bubble-elimination game.

Pittsburgh 21-7 (9-6) @ Notre Dame 15-14 (6-10): Both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix have Pitt as a 9 seed. RPI is 46. I'm frankly not sure which part of Pitt's ONE (yes, 1) top 50 win (over 42 Stanford in November) has people so impressed. Pitt loses to mediocre FSU on their home court and then stumbles by in a narrow win over Boston College and Lunardi moves them up a seed. Unreal. Notre Dame is a sub-100 opponent. If Pitt loses this, they need to come under serious questioning. I know this is a weak bubble, but Pitt getting a free pass despite only 1 top 50 win (and let's face it, it's Stanford. Not exactly a power) is absurd.

Richmond 18-10 (8-5) @ Rhode Island 12-17 (3-11): Spiders are coming off a devastating loss at lowly George Mason. That essentially ended their realistic hopes. Still, they're hanging around in "Next Four Out" categories on Lunardi and Bracket Matrix. RPI is 53. Anything less than winning out (VCU, @ Dayton are after this) and then having an impressive A10 tourney will result in Richmond falling short. A shame, before their top scorer went down a few weeks ago they were poised to make it.

Arkansas 19-9 (8-7) vs Georgia 16-11 (10-5): Razorbacks are a bit of a mystery. Lunardi doesn't even have them on his radar because he updated prior to their win at Kentucky. Bracket Matrix has them as the final team making the Dance. RPI is 60, but they've got a sweep of Kentucky and wins over SMU and Minnesota. At a time when Tennessee and Missouri keep losing, Arkansas made a statement last night. I'd favor them making it over the Vols or Missouri. If Arkansas can win out (after this it's Ole Miss, @ Alabama) and then have a solid SEC tournament, I believe they can get a bid.

BYU 20-10 (12-5) @ San Diego 16-14 (7-10): BYU's final regular season game, and what a dangerous one it is. BYU has wins over Texas, Stanford and Gonzaga. But they've got 4 sub-100 losses. Lunardi has them as one of the last teams holding a bye, Bracket Matrix has them as "last four in". RPI is 33. BYU's recent win over Gonzaga is viewed as vaulting them into the Dance. A loss here to 152 San Diego to end the regular season would change that. They simply cannot afford another bad loss. As long as they win this and don't do anything stupid in the WCC tournament, they'll be fine. We'll see how they cope with the pressure.

Oregon 19-8 (7-8) @ USC 10-18 (1-14): Ducks are fresh off a crucial 2OT win at UCLA (albeit with UCLA missing two of their best). They've won 4 straight and their RPI is all the way up to 32. Lunardi's last update (before their win at UCLA) had them "first four out", while Bracket Matrix has them in as an 11 seed. I believe if the selection was now, Oregon would get in. Obviously they have to win at USC, a loss would be devastating. Then they wrap up the regular season hosting ASU and Arizona in Eugene. If they beat USC, I believe they only need to win 1 of ASU/Zona. A 21-9 (9-9) record with an RPI around 30 would be too hard to turn away given the state of the bubble. Keep in mind Oregon is coming off an exhausting 2OT win late on Thursday night. As bad as USC is, Oregon is likely going to be tired and can't be caught overlooking the Trojans. A loss is not an option if Oregon is to complete this "comeback".

Xavier 19-9 (9-6) vs #9 Creighton 23-4 (13-2): Xavier is coming off a nice win at fellow bubbler St. John's. Lunardi has them a 10 seed, Bracket Matrix an 11. RPI is 41. A win over Creighton would lock up a bid. After this it's @ Seton Hall, then home for #8 Villanova. Xavier is probably in because losses to Creighton and Villanova wouldn't be damaging. Unless they finish 0-3 and lose to someone awful to start the Big East tournament, they'll be fine.

Nebraska 16-11 (8-7) vs Northwestern 12-16 (5-10): Huskers are coming off a loss @ Illinois. While not a "bad loss", Nebraska is on the outside looking in. If they had any margin of error before, it's now gone. Lunardi and Bracket Matrix both have the Corn as the 5th team out. RPI is 51. After Northwestern, it's @ Indiana and then home against Wisconsin. Simply put, they have to win all 3. I've said all along it's likely a year too soon for the Huskers. The opportunity is still there, but finding a win in Bloomington and then beating Wisconsin is a lot to ask of them.

Minnesota 18-11 (7-9) @ #16 Michigan 20-7 (12-3): Gophers are coming off a win over Iowa which may have saved their season. They had been collapsing, but this win has kept them in the field. Both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix have Minnesota as "Last Four In". RPI is 44. After this they end the season at home against Penn State. A win in Ann Arbor is highly unlikely, but it would bring Minnesota to safety. Assuming they lose here, as long as they beat Penn State and don't exit the B1G tournament in the first game against someone awful, they should make it. Still looks like it may be a very nervous Selection Sunday unless they find themselves another quality win.

Cal 18-10 (9-6) @ Arizona State 20-8 (9-6): Both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix have ASU an 8 seed and Cal a 10. ASU RPI is 30, Cal 47. One more win should lock it up for both of these squads. After this ASU ends on the road at Oregon and Oregon State, while Cal hosts Utah and Colorado. ASU is viewed as being a little more safe right now, but this is their final home game before a tricky road swing in Oregon. Cal has been playing very poorly lately, but gets to end with 2 home games. Unless one of these schools collapses and loses all 3 remaining games and then loses to USC or Wazzu in the Pac tournament, they should be fine. With Cal viewed as a 10 and their RPI only 47, things could get really shaky if they don't find another win.

Oklahoma State 18-10 (6-9) vs #5 Kansas 22-6 (13-2): Both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix have Okie State as the last team holding a bye (the 5th to last team in the field). RPI is 49. They stopped the run of 7 straight losses with 2 straight wins over Big XII cellar dwellers Texas Tech and TCU. Oklahoma State needs another win or two against quality opposition to show they belong. They've got 3 chances to do so with KU, KSU and @ Iowa State their remaining games. 2 wins and they're in. 1 win and they'll need to do something in the Big XII tournament. Huge opportunity for them here.
 
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