The matchup will likely look much different with Wes back and with Fletcher hopefully back to at least a few mins.
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Official 2014 Bubble Watch Thread
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
The matchup will likely look much different with Wes back and with Fletcher hopefully back to at least a few mins.
Just saw on twitter another impressive number.
Oregon and Baylor started the season a combined 25-1. Then both went a combined 5-16 and now they are on a combined streak of 12-1.
Ok.State also coming on strong towards the finish. If those three teams have maintained their level of play, buffs wouldn't even be on the bubble right now.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Nebraska wins at Indiana. Sets up a huge game for them against Wisconsin this weekend. If they can beat the Badgers, they get in IMO.
I agree with you; however it may take one win in the B1G Tourney to get in for sure. Who would have thought the Nebraska basketball team would be in this position at the beginning of the season? It's been a ride.
oh wow A&M. this has been incredibly bad.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Weak foul call on that rebound.
Wow. ATM is ****ing stupid. I hope the pull off a winning shot here though.
They are incredibly bad. Which is good for about a .500 record in the SEC. Buff fans need to keep in mind that Georgia is the 3rd best team in the SEC when discussing that there are 3 teams below the Dawgs that some of these ESPN idots are trying to put in the Dance ahead of CU.
sure seemed like a campaign centered around using BPI and Lunardi's opinion to push the Buffs onto the bubble in favor of other teams, even freaking Oregon.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Yup. Missouri needing a cheap foul to win by 1 at home over an Aggie squad whose RPI is 132 par for the course. Missouri has NO business making the Dance, this wasn't some fluke off night. It's how bad Missouri and the SEC are. Luckily they go to Knoxville next and unless they win, it's unlikely they sneak in.
It's been a ****ing campaign against CU by ESPN.
And you're right -- completely about justifying their "BPI" nonsense.
They don't talk about the win over Oregon. (They had one of CU's best wins listed incorrectly as "Oregon State" tonight.)
They don't talk about beating ASU post-Dinwiddie.
CU's 9 losses: 2 to Arizona (#1 RPI), 2 to UCLA (#22 RPI), 1 at ASU (#31 RPI), 1 neutral vs Baylor (#38 RPI), 1 neutral vs Oklahoma State (#40 RPI), 1 at Washington (#80 RPI), and 1 at Utah (#83 RPI).
CU's 21 wins include the following quality ones: 1 vs Kansas (#2 RPI), 1 vs Oregon (#29 RPI), 1 vs ASU (#31 RPI), 1 at Stanford (#42 RPI), 1 vs Harvard (#53 RPI), 1 vs Washington (#80 RPI), 1 vs Utah (#83 RPI), 1 vs Georgia (#84 RPI), and 1 vs Oregon State (#99 RPI).
We've also got wins over some teams in the 2nd 100: #105 UCSB, #124 Wyoming, #158 Elon, @ #167 CSU, 2 vs #178 USC, and #182 Arkansas State.
There's a reason why CU's schedule is ranked in the Top 15 in the nation. And the 9 wins against the Top 100 with another 7 against challenging opponents in the next 100 is why it's an absolute joke to talk about CU being a bubble team.
No bad losses.
Lots of quality wins.
I dare anyone to find another team talked about by ESPN as a "Bubble Team" with a resume that compares to the one the Buffs have.
Medford M.
Well-Known Member
Our resume is better than Iowa, who Lunardi would have you believe is a 5 seed.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Thursday:
Xavier 20-10 (10-7) vs #6 Villanova 26-3 (14-2): Xavier beat Creighton and then turned around and took a sub-100 loss to Seton Hall. Lunardi has Xavier a 9 seed, Bracket Matrix an 11 seed. RPI is 44. A win over Villanova would seal the deal, but a loss paired with a bad Big East tournament loss would leave Xavier sweating it out. They're probably in, but a lot can change if they enter Selection Sunday with 2 losses. Bracket Matrix has them far closer to where they really are than Lunardi, IMO.
Louisiana Tech 24-6 (12-3) @ Rice 7-21 (2-13): Lunardi has them in his "Next Four Out" (8th). RPI is 65. They've won at Oklahoma for their 1 top 50 win. They've lost to 206 East Carolina, 121 Louisiana-Lafayette and 99 UTEP. Not getting an at-large bid.
Also, lost in our win tonight was Dayton's win at #17 Saint Louis. Flyers are up to 43 now in the RPI and may have just placed themselves in the field of 68.
Xavier 20-10 (10-7) vs #6 Villanova 26-3 (14-2): Xavier beat Creighton and then turned around and took a sub-100 loss to Seton Hall. Lunardi has Xavier a 9 seed, Bracket Matrix an 11 seed. RPI is 44. A win over Villanova would seal the deal, but a loss paired with a bad Big East tournament loss would leave Xavier sweating it out. They're probably in, but a lot can change if they enter Selection Sunday with 2 losses. Bracket Matrix has them far closer to where they really are than Lunardi, IMO.
Louisiana Tech 24-6 (12-3) @ Rice 7-21 (2-13): Lunardi has them in his "Next Four Out" (8th). RPI is 65. They've won at Oklahoma for their 1 top 50 win. They've lost to 206 East Carolina, 121 Louisiana-Lafayette and 99 UTEP. Not getting an at-large bid.
Also, lost in our win tonight was Dayton's win at #17 Saint Louis. Flyers are up to 43 now in the RPI and may have just placed themselves in the field of 68.
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CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
I'd disagree that we need a win at Cal to "likely lock up a bid". We did that tonight. However they are correct that Cal is in some serious trouble (although, in typical fashion, they make it sound like their loss to 20 win Utah squad is something far more awful than it really is). It's a huge game for us for Pac12 and Big Dance seeding. What you do in the conference tournament will often do very little for your tournament seed as they've largely made the bracket before all is done, and then just do a little tweaking for unexpected results. For example, 2011 Big XII tournament when our win over KState and hard fought close loss to KU fell on deaf ears. Basically, I'm saying if we're to get another nice win, it probably helps us get a better Dance seed if we win at Cal, than say beating Cal or Stanford in the conference tournament quarterfinal. Conference tournament wins can often get lost in the fog of what everyone else is doing. Hell, Oregon won the tournament last year and ended up a 12 seed when everyone had them at least that or higher heading into the conference tournament. I guess the committee was going to pull a shocker and leave them out had they not won, or else the committee had largely completed everything and didn't want to **** with making Oregon the 7 seed they should have been.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24470020/poppin-bubbles-nebraska-stays-in-the-mix
Regarding the BPI, I don't believe the committee uses it, or at least they're not supposed to. But the part that bothers me about that is it's one of those things like where a jury hears a witness but then the judge tells them to disregard that testimony. Umm too late, it's in their head subconsciously now.
The BPI sounds like a subjective ranking to me because not only do they not reveal the formula for how it's calculated because of some of the factors that are used like how a team is playing when a key player is injured and pace of play. It's like they have a panel who sit around and decide what type of BPI number to assign to each team based on some numbers along with the eye test. :huh:
The BPI sounds like a subjective ranking to me because not only do they not reveal the formula for how it's calculated because of some of the factors that are used like how a team is playing when a key player is injured and pace of play. It's like they have a panel who sit around and decide what type of BPI number to assign to each team based on some numbers along with the eye test. :huh:
89Buff
Well-Known Member
cubuffs85
Active Member
I agree with what Cville is saying in terms of conference tourneys have little impact. The committee starts working on the bracket when they get to Indianapolis as they are indulging in all that ice cream. They have many drafts of potential scenarios. By the time Sunday rolls along, it's just about wins/losses and really the only thing that changes is say a team like Northwestern made it to the Big 10 Tournament Finals -- at that point, there would be two potential brackets, one if Northwestern wins, one if they lose. Whether they beat Ohio State(or whoever they played) by 2 or 20 wouldn't matter for them or the other team.
cubuffs85
Active Member
Disappointed it can't be Beau or Ben Mills, lol.
I agree with you, although it does seem both Lunardi and Palm have CU as not quite a lock yet.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Xavier going to be one of those "coin flip" bubble teams the tv cameras are on. Musketeers are probably still in for now (344 other teams would lose to Villanova, too), but if they don't get a conference tournament win, they probably fall out.
The USC loss and those 2 losses to Seton Hall are what's really hurting them.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Saturday:
Our Buffs 21-9 (10-7) are @ Cal 18-12 (9-8): Buffs' win at Stanford almost certainly sealed the deal. It cleared one of the final holes in CU's resume: a quality win away from home. Lunardi has CU a 10 seed, Bracket Matrix has CU a 9. RPI is 28. Cal, meanwhile, has been going in the wrong direction. Bears are coming off a home loss to Utah, their 3rd straight loss and 8th loss in 12 games. Their RPI has fallen all the way to 60. Both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix now have Cal as the first team out. If Cal wins, they'll be in good shape to reclaim a spot. A loss will result in Cal having to go on a deep Pac12 tournament run. Big chance for CU to lock up a Pac12 tournament bye and improve their Dance seeding with another quality road win. This is going to have a tournament-like atmosphere, with Cal knowing this is basically a must-win. Great opportunity for the Buffs.
St. John's 19-11 (9-8) @ Marquette 17-13 (9-8): Lunardi has St. John's in his "Next Four Out" (6th) and Bracket Matrix has St. John's the 8th team out. RPI is 64. Red Storm have got to get this road win at Marquette and then go pretty deep in the Big East Tournament to get a bid. This is a bad last week of the regular season having beaten DePaul at home (DePaul is awful, a win did nothing) and now having to face a Marquette squad on the road that's tough but only 72 in the RPI. St. John's made a big push winning 9/10 in January and February, but ultimately that 0-5 start to Big East play was always probably going to be too much to overcome. Still alive, but their hopes will effectively end without victory at Marquette.
Baylor 20-10 (8-9) @ Kansas State 20-10 (10-7): Baylor is nearly safe now. Lunardi has them a 9, Bracket Matrix a 10, RPI is 39. Their most recent win, over #16 Iowa State, made it 6 wins in 7 games for Baylor. Bears have stashed a bunch of top 50 wins and only have 1 bad loss (Texas Tech). A Baylor loss to KState followed by bad Big XII tournament loss would push Baylor back, but it's really hard to see them falling entirely out.
Georgetown 17-12 (8-9) @ #6 Villanova 27-3 (15-2): Lunardi has Georgetown in his "Next Four Out" (7th) while Bracket Matrix has them the 6th team out. RPI is 58. Hoyas are coming off a 12 point win over #12 Creighton that kept their hopes alive. I'm somewhat surprised they are still considered well outside. They do have 3 bad losses (Northeastern, Seton Hall x2) but they've defeated Michigan State, Creighton, Kansas State, VCU and Xavier. Hoyas appear to need one more signature win to offset those 3 bad losses. If they can get a win at Villanova they'll leap a bunch of teams and be right on the cut line. A loss leaves them needing a very impressive Big East tournament and outside luck.
Oklahoma State 20-10 (8-9) @ #16 Iowa State 22-7 (10-7): Like Baylor, it's getting hard to see how Okie State could miss out. Both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix have them a 9 seed. RPI is 42. They've put that 7 game skid in the review mirror, having won 4 straight including a win over Kansas. The quality wins are there, there's only one bad loss (Texas Tech). A road loss against a top 25 Cyclone squad won't do much damage, and a bad Big XII tournament loss would hurt, but it isn't dropping them a dozen spots to be out of the field.
Stanford 18-11 (9-8) vs Utah 20-9 (9-8): Lunardi still has Stanford a 10 seed, while Bracket Matrix has them an 11. RPI is 47. Cardinal are still on the right side of things after losing to CU, but they've now lost 3 straight. If they pick up a 4th consecutive loss to end the regular season, things will get very shaky. They've got 4 top 50 wins and 1 bad loss (Oregon State). If Stanford beats the Utes, they're probably fine as long as they don't pick up a bad Pac12 tournament loss. If they lose, Stanford may be looking at needing to make the Pac12 tournament semifinal to feel completely safe. Like Cal, collapsing down the stretch is a terrible idea. Committee no longer readily admits it, but wins (or lack thereof) in late February and early March can have quite an influence. Meanwhile, Utah has won 3 straight but their RPI is still just 75. A win @ Stanford + a deep Pac12 tournament would get their RPI within range and warrant a look. They are up to 4 top 50 wins, but that historically weak OOC and a loss against Wazzu make it hard to see.
Oregon 21-8 (9-8) vs #3 Arizona 28-2 (15-2): Lunardi and Bracket Matrix both have Oregon a 10 seed. RPI is 31. Ducks have won 6 straight, going from 3-8 in the Pac to inside the Dance field with even a tiny bit of breathing room. If they beat the Wildcats, they're locked in. If they lose, they'll still likely get a bid as long as they don't pick up an awful Pac12 tournament loss.
Pittsburgh 22-8 (10-7) @ Clemson 19-10 (10-7): Lunardi and Bracket Matrix both have Pitt a 10 seed. RPI is 54. Pitt is coming off a home loss to a very mediocre NC State squad. That game sums up Pitt's season as a whole: unimpressive. Pitt has 1 top 50 win (against #47 Stanford in November). Aside from failing
in every opportunity they've had to add more quality wins, they've also sprinkled in a couple home losses to mediocre competition well outside the top 50. Add in their atrocious OOC schedule, and you see why the 22-8 record is highly misleading and why Pitt is on the bubble. If the Panthers win at Clemson and avoid a bad ACC tournament loss, they'll be OK. Anything less than that and they deserve to fall near the cut-line or even out entirely. At some point you've got to prove you can beat somebody with a pulse.
Missouri 21-9 (9-8) @ Tennessee 19-11 (10-7): The epic bubble battle of middling SEC teams. Lunardi has Tennessee in his "Last Four In" while Missouri is in his "Next Four Out", Bracket Matrix has Tennessee the next to last team in, and Missouri the third team out. Tennessee's RPI is 46, Missouri's 52. Both teams wasted all opportunities against Florida and Kentucky and also picked up bad conference losses. Tennessee is in the slightly better position of the two thanks to its win over Virginia and the fact it has managed to look decent against bad opponents recently. Missouri really damaged itself in recent losses to Alabama and Georgia. Most recently the Tigers weaseled their way out of taking another sub 100 loss against Texas A&M, winning by 1 after trailing the whole game. As such, they're still alive. If Missouri loses this game, they're done. Even if they win they'll need an SEC Tournament win or two to have any real shot. If Tennessee wins, they can probably make it in by just avoiding a bad SEC Tournament loss. If they lose, they'll need to go on an SEC Tournament run. Only one of these two teams is getting a bid, IMO.
Arkansas 21-9 (10-7) @ Alabama 12-18 (6-11): Lunardi has Arkansas in his "Last Four In", Bracket Matrix has them as an 11 seed holding the final bye. RPI is 56. Razorbacks have won 6 in a row, most recently putting up 110 on Ole Miss. They've put themselves on the right side of the bubble for now. A loss at Alabama would move them to the wrong side. If they can avoid a bad loss here and in the SEC Tournament, they should stay in. Another quality win in the SEC Tournament would certainly let them breathe easier.
BYU 21-10 (13-5) vs Loyola Marymount 13-18 (4-14) WCC TOURNAMENT Las Vegas, NV: Both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix have BYU an 11 seed. RPI 34. BYU will be fine with a loss in this tournament as long as it's against Gonzaga or even St. Mary's. It's these early rounds that are dangerous for BYU. The Cougars have a few bad losses, and adding another one will prove one too many to overcome despite their nice wins.
Dayton 21-9 (9-6) vs Richmond 18-12 (8-7): Lunardi has Dayton in his "Last Four In" (next to last team in) while Bracket Matrix has them the third to last team in. RPI is 43. They have been propelled into the field by their huge win at Saint Louis, their 8th win in 9 games. This has been a solid team aside from a 4 game losing streak in January while dealing with multiple injuries. If they beat Richmond and don't lose to someone awful in the A10 tournament, they should get in. They're still one more quality win from not being extremely nervous on Selection Sunday though.
Providence 20-10 (10-7) @ #13 Creighton 23-6 (13-4): Lunardi has Providence his second team out, while Bracket Matrix has them the last team in. RPI is 55. A win at Creighton would clearly vault the Friars into the field, but it's unlikely they're able to get a win there on Doug McDermott's senior night. A loss on the road to a quality opponent like Creighton wouldn't be fatal, although it would leave Providence needing at least 1 Big East tournament win. Providence is the hardest team to get a read on right now. With most teams you generally know whether they're currently on or out. Providence is completely up in the air right now.
Green Bay 24-5 (14-2) vs Milwaukee 19-13 (7-9) HORIZON LEAGUE TOURNAMENT: Both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix have Green Bay getting the Horizon auto-bid. RPI is 51. Green Bay has beaten Virginia and only lost to Wisconsin by 3. Aside from that, it has been cupcake city. A loss in the Horizon tournament probably means no Dance, which would be a shame because Green Bay has all the makings of this year's small conference surprise.
Our Buffs 21-9 (10-7) are @ Cal 18-12 (9-8): Buffs' win at Stanford almost certainly sealed the deal. It cleared one of the final holes in CU's resume: a quality win away from home. Lunardi has CU a 10 seed, Bracket Matrix has CU a 9. RPI is 28. Cal, meanwhile, has been going in the wrong direction. Bears are coming off a home loss to Utah, their 3rd straight loss and 8th loss in 12 games. Their RPI has fallen all the way to 60. Both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix now have Cal as the first team out. If Cal wins, they'll be in good shape to reclaim a spot. A loss will result in Cal having to go on a deep Pac12 tournament run. Big chance for CU to lock up a Pac12 tournament bye and improve their Dance seeding with another quality road win. This is going to have a tournament-like atmosphere, with Cal knowing this is basically a must-win. Great opportunity for the Buffs.
St. John's 19-11 (9-8) @ Marquette 17-13 (9-8): Lunardi has St. John's in his "Next Four Out" (6th) and Bracket Matrix has St. John's the 8th team out. RPI is 64. Red Storm have got to get this road win at Marquette and then go pretty deep in the Big East Tournament to get a bid. This is a bad last week of the regular season having beaten DePaul at home (DePaul is awful, a win did nothing) and now having to face a Marquette squad on the road that's tough but only 72 in the RPI. St. John's made a big push winning 9/10 in January and February, but ultimately that 0-5 start to Big East play was always probably going to be too much to overcome. Still alive, but their hopes will effectively end without victory at Marquette.
Baylor 20-10 (8-9) @ Kansas State 20-10 (10-7): Baylor is nearly safe now. Lunardi has them a 9, Bracket Matrix a 10, RPI is 39. Their most recent win, over #16 Iowa State, made it 6 wins in 7 games for Baylor. Bears have stashed a bunch of top 50 wins and only have 1 bad loss (Texas Tech). A Baylor loss to KState followed by bad Big XII tournament loss would push Baylor back, but it's really hard to see them falling entirely out.
Georgetown 17-12 (8-9) @ #6 Villanova 27-3 (15-2): Lunardi has Georgetown in his "Next Four Out" (7th) while Bracket Matrix has them the 6th team out. RPI is 58. Hoyas are coming off a 12 point win over #12 Creighton that kept their hopes alive. I'm somewhat surprised they are still considered well outside. They do have 3 bad losses (Northeastern, Seton Hall x2) but they've defeated Michigan State, Creighton, Kansas State, VCU and Xavier. Hoyas appear to need one more signature win to offset those 3 bad losses. If they can get a win at Villanova they'll leap a bunch of teams and be right on the cut line. A loss leaves them needing a very impressive Big East tournament and outside luck.
Oklahoma State 20-10 (8-9) @ #16 Iowa State 22-7 (10-7): Like Baylor, it's getting hard to see how Okie State could miss out. Both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix have them a 9 seed. RPI is 42. They've put that 7 game skid in the review mirror, having won 4 straight including a win over Kansas. The quality wins are there, there's only one bad loss (Texas Tech). A road loss against a top 25 Cyclone squad won't do much damage, and a bad Big XII tournament loss would hurt, but it isn't dropping them a dozen spots to be out of the field.
Stanford 18-11 (9-8) vs Utah 20-9 (9-8): Lunardi still has Stanford a 10 seed, while Bracket Matrix has them an 11. RPI is 47. Cardinal are still on the right side of things after losing to CU, but they've now lost 3 straight. If they pick up a 4th consecutive loss to end the regular season, things will get very shaky. They've got 4 top 50 wins and 1 bad loss (Oregon State). If Stanford beats the Utes, they're probably fine as long as they don't pick up a bad Pac12 tournament loss. If they lose, Stanford may be looking at needing to make the Pac12 tournament semifinal to feel completely safe. Like Cal, collapsing down the stretch is a terrible idea. Committee no longer readily admits it, but wins (or lack thereof) in late February and early March can have quite an influence. Meanwhile, Utah has won 3 straight but their RPI is still just 75. A win @ Stanford + a deep Pac12 tournament would get their RPI within range and warrant a look. They are up to 4 top 50 wins, but that historically weak OOC and a loss against Wazzu make it hard to see.
Oregon 21-8 (9-8) vs #3 Arizona 28-2 (15-2): Lunardi and Bracket Matrix both have Oregon a 10 seed. RPI is 31. Ducks have won 6 straight, going from 3-8 in the Pac to inside the Dance field with even a tiny bit of breathing room. If they beat the Wildcats, they're locked in. If they lose, they'll still likely get a bid as long as they don't pick up an awful Pac12 tournament loss.
Pittsburgh 22-8 (10-7) @ Clemson 19-10 (10-7): Lunardi and Bracket Matrix both have Pitt a 10 seed. RPI is 54. Pitt is coming off a home loss to a very mediocre NC State squad. That game sums up Pitt's season as a whole: unimpressive. Pitt has 1 top 50 win (against #47 Stanford in November). Aside from failing
in every opportunity they've had to add more quality wins, they've also sprinkled in a couple home losses to mediocre competition well outside the top 50. Add in their atrocious OOC schedule, and you see why the 22-8 record is highly misleading and why Pitt is on the bubble. If the Panthers win at Clemson and avoid a bad ACC tournament loss, they'll be OK. Anything less than that and they deserve to fall near the cut-line or even out entirely. At some point you've got to prove you can beat somebody with a pulse.
Missouri 21-9 (9-8) @ Tennessee 19-11 (10-7): The epic bubble battle of middling SEC teams. Lunardi has Tennessee in his "Last Four In" while Missouri is in his "Next Four Out", Bracket Matrix has Tennessee the next to last team in, and Missouri the third team out. Tennessee's RPI is 46, Missouri's 52. Both teams wasted all opportunities against Florida and Kentucky and also picked up bad conference losses. Tennessee is in the slightly better position of the two thanks to its win over Virginia and the fact it has managed to look decent against bad opponents recently. Missouri really damaged itself in recent losses to Alabama and Georgia. Most recently the Tigers weaseled their way out of taking another sub 100 loss against Texas A&M, winning by 1 after trailing the whole game. As such, they're still alive. If Missouri loses this game, they're done. Even if they win they'll need an SEC Tournament win or two to have any real shot. If Tennessee wins, they can probably make it in by just avoiding a bad SEC Tournament loss. If they lose, they'll need to go on an SEC Tournament run. Only one of these two teams is getting a bid, IMO.
Arkansas 21-9 (10-7) @ Alabama 12-18 (6-11): Lunardi has Arkansas in his "Last Four In", Bracket Matrix has them as an 11 seed holding the final bye. RPI is 56. Razorbacks have won 6 in a row, most recently putting up 110 on Ole Miss. They've put themselves on the right side of the bubble for now. A loss at Alabama would move them to the wrong side. If they can avoid a bad loss here and in the SEC Tournament, they should stay in. Another quality win in the SEC Tournament would certainly let them breathe easier.
BYU 21-10 (13-5) vs Loyola Marymount 13-18 (4-14) WCC TOURNAMENT Las Vegas, NV: Both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix have BYU an 11 seed. RPI 34. BYU will be fine with a loss in this tournament as long as it's against Gonzaga or even St. Mary's. It's these early rounds that are dangerous for BYU. The Cougars have a few bad losses, and adding another one will prove one too many to overcome despite their nice wins.
Dayton 21-9 (9-6) vs Richmond 18-12 (8-7): Lunardi has Dayton in his "Last Four In" (next to last team in) while Bracket Matrix has them the third to last team in. RPI is 43. They have been propelled into the field by their huge win at Saint Louis, their 8th win in 9 games. This has been a solid team aside from a 4 game losing streak in January while dealing with multiple injuries. If they beat Richmond and don't lose to someone awful in the A10 tournament, they should get in. They're still one more quality win from not being extremely nervous on Selection Sunday though.
Providence 20-10 (10-7) @ #13 Creighton 23-6 (13-4): Lunardi has Providence his second team out, while Bracket Matrix has them the last team in. RPI is 55. A win at Creighton would clearly vault the Friars into the field, but it's unlikely they're able to get a win there on Doug McDermott's senior night. A loss on the road to a quality opponent like Creighton wouldn't be fatal, although it would leave Providence needing at least 1 Big East tournament win. Providence is the hardest team to get a read on right now. With most teams you generally know whether they're currently on or out. Providence is completely up in the air right now.
Green Bay 24-5 (14-2) vs Milwaukee 19-13 (7-9) HORIZON LEAGUE TOURNAMENT: Both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix have Green Bay getting the Horizon auto-bid. RPI is 51. Green Bay has beaten Virginia and only lost to Wisconsin by 3. Aside from that, it has been cupcake city. A loss in the Horizon tournament probably means no Dance, which would be a shame because Green Bay has all the makings of this year's small conference surprise.
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BehindEnemyLines
beware the habu
Cville - you know a helluva lot more about this stuff than I do, but I'm gonna throw a question out anyway. Lots of talk about TN, Arky, and Mizzery's possible dance tickets, but sitting 3rd in the $ec is Georgia. Do they have a shot (other than winning the conference tourney)?
One other interesting note - of the teams still in the bubble discussion, only 2 do not have a loss at the hands of a team with a 100+ rpi. Those two teams?
CU and Pitt.
This info was on a site earlier in the week therefore I believe we've taken care of our business. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Pitt makes it in without doing much more. The bubble really does seem that weak.
One other interesting note - of the teams still in the bubble discussion, only 2 do not have a loss at the hands of a team with a 100+ rpi. Those two teams?
CU and Pitt.
This info was on a site earlier in the week therefore I believe we've taken care of our business. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Pitt makes it in without doing much more. The bubble really does seem that weak.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Georgia would have to win the SEC tournament. Dawgs RPI is only 83 and they've simply got too many bad losses (Temple, Auburn, Georgia Tech) and no wins currently top 50 (they've swept Mizzou and beat Arkansas, but neither is top 50). I'm really happy with how Georgia was able to turn what looked like a complete disaster of a season for a while into an NIT caliber campign. In regards to why they aren't on the bubble, they've had a favorable SEC schedule (only faced Florida, Kentucky and Tennessee once) and largely feasted on sub 100 conference foes. Pair that with 3 sub 100 OOC losses and an awful SEC loss to Auburn, and that's why they aren't on the radar.
I agree that Pitt probably makes it. I only think they could truly fall all the way out if they lose to Clemson and then take a bad ACC tournament loss. However, it does seem like everyone is waking up to Pitt being a fraud hiding behind a weak OOC and losing to every halfway decent team they face. You're right though, arguing Pitt's resume is awful is one thing, but it's not like anyone waiting on the outside has a resume that's much better. Pitt's lack of a bad loss is the one positive about their resume. It's a matter of what should be selected: Georgetown, who has defeated Michigan State, Kansas State and VCU all away from home and Creighton and Xavier at home, but has 3 bad losses...or a Pitt squad that hasn't beaten anyone but also doesn't have a bad loss? I find myself tending to side with Georgetown, but the committee likely sides with Pitt. We've avoided the bad losses just like Pitt, but we've picked up some very nice wins. I think it would be criminal to seed Pitt ahead of CU, but it very well may happen.
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CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Yeah, a loss would have been about the end. Still alive, but probably need 2 wins
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Not really, but a Mizzou win would make things a bigger mess than it already is.