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Montez

Highlander said:
This is exactly why Montez should come out a year early if he has a 1-2 round draft grade. He has a better chance to get with a better team than getting a top 5 grade next year and ending up with the Browns.
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At the end of the day it's all a gamble. If you wait too long you may end up like Matt Barkley, who was touted as an early first round pick before he went back to USC for another year and shredded his draft stock there. Barkley is now on his sixth team.

I just feel like Montez needs work and things will have to align for him in a certain way, more than they may have to for others, if he wants to establish himself as a legit NFL starter, which he has the athletic potential to do. How far he'll go is all down to the mental things as athletically the sky's the limit.
 
The Ogre said:
Can you explain your point?

Admittedly, I don't follow the NFL much, but all the trashing of Allen I've seen here made me look at his play yesterday. It was when the game was over, but he threw the ball pretty well. Many of his incompletions were stupid drops, including a TD. Is it widely believed that he will be a bust?
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Do you mean my point, which I believe I made clear, or why people are so down on Allen and how his game will transition to the NFL?

I guess the main points why people are so skeptical about Allen in the NFL is that he regressed from his sophomore to junior year and that his college completion percentage (56.2%) is like a death sentence when it comes to projection QBs in the NFL. His physical traits aren't doubted by anyone, I think, but there's much more to being a NFL level QB than being a good athlete.
 
Ringer said:
Even if Montez does well this entire season, he won't be a 1-2 rounder. He'll need another year. [said in a hopeful tone.]
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With QBs all bets are off, I think. It only needs one team and when you have the physical tools, there'll always be one team or GM who thinks that with the expertise of him and his coaching staff, he'll be the next best thing as they can just coach him and teach him to play QB.
 
Jens1893 said:
Do you mean my point, which I believe I made clear, or why people are so down on Allen and how his game will transition to the NFL?

I guess the main points why people are so skeptical about Allen in the NFL is that he regressed from his sophomore to junior year and that his college completion percentage (56.2%) is like a death sentence when it comes to projection QBs in the NFL. His physical traits aren't doubted by anyone, I think, but there's much more to being a NFL level QB than being a good athlete.
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Your point, as it related directly to Montez and his prospects of being drafted early enough for it it make sense to jump, wasn't clear to me. That's why I asked. Personally, I hope he manages to work out the major kinks and find himself in high demand - which I think is entirely possible.

You answered my second question.
 
The Ogre said:
Can you explain your point?

Admittedly, I don't follow the NFL much, but all the trashing of Allen I've seen here made me look at his play yesterday. It was when the game was over, but he threw the ball pretty well. Many of his incompletions were stupid drops, including a TD. Is it widely believed that he will be a bust?
Click to expand...

Allen is representative of the scouting divide in the NFL. Some coaches/personnel people look at profiles for players. Statistically, Allen underperformed against poor competition in a G5 conference. He matches the profiles of other players like Jake Locker and Kyle Boller: physically gifted QBs who were sub-standard statisically. Both of these QBs proved to be busts. Looking at other QBs who come from non-P5 competition, the QBs who make it in the NFL had dominant statistical histories. Allen has not shown that he can be an accurate passer throughout his entire college career. In the NFL, accuracy is at a premium.

Other coaches/personnel people see Allen’s physical gifts and maintain the steadfast belief that Allen’s inaccuracy can be coached out of him. They believe that his deficiencies in college were the result of his teammates’ lack of talent and not his responsibility. Allen is a real upside player given his cannon arm and prototypical build.

In the offseason, we did a very deep dive into Allen. I personally don’t think he can play at this level. Time will tell.
 
The Ogre said:
Your point, as it related directly to Montez and his prospects of being drafted early enough for it it make sense to jump, wasn't clear to me. That's why I asked. Personally, I hope he manages to work out the major kinks and find himself in high demand - which I think is entirely possible.

You answered my second question.
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That was mainly about money. You have to weigh things up and decide if another season in college is worth it and what it may cost you. If you go around the top 10 you're probably looking at a guaranteed 15-18m and that's an amount I think you have to absolutely jump at no matter what it means for your long term career. Even if you do flake out, that's money you have coming your way no matter what and I think that sets you up extremely well to do whatever you want afterwards.

For most NFL players the second contract is the big and most important one as that one really sets you up for the rest of your life financially, so you kind of have to weigh up between more cash now if it may mean a tougher path to the 2nd contract and the true jackpot or less cash in the short term, but an easier and more manageable path to the 2nd contract that, for a QB, will most likely easily net you 40m. I don't think you gamble on the money you get when you can be reasonably certain you're going to end up near the top of the first round and get 20m either way, but if it's say 3m as a 2nd round pick, I guess you at least have to think about staying for your senior year, with your stud WR being there also, and if more polish can improve your draft stock so you get picked higher and get more money.
 
manhattanbuf said:
Allen is representative of the scouting divide in the NFL. Some coaches/personnel people look at profiles for players. Statistically, Allen underperformed against poor competition in a G5 conference. He matches the profiles of other players like Jake Locker and Kyle Boller: physically gifted QBs who were sub-standard statisically. Both of these QBs proved to be busts. Looking at other QBs who come from non-P5 competition, the QBs who make it in the NFL had dominant statistical histories. Allen has not shown that he can be an accurate passer throughout his entire college career. In the NFL, accuracy is at a premium.

Other coaches/personnel people see Allen’s physical gifts and maintain the steadfast belief that Allen’s inaccuracy can be coached out of him. They believe that his deficiencies in college were the result of his teammates’ lack of talent and not his responsibility. Allen is a real upside player given his cannon arm and prototypical build.

In the offseason, we did a very deep dive into Allen. I personally don’t think he can play at this level. Time will tell.
Click to expand...
Essentially, Allen is the prospect that old-fashioned, non analytic scouts believe is best. Tall, big arm, and he played under center in college. You saw several of these old time football scouts and personnel literally outright dismiss his poor stats and horrendous accuracy.

These types still can't fathom that production should be the first thing you look at with a QB. Allen is widely believed to be a massive bust in the making. If I was a Bills fan, I would have been as despondent as I was when my Titans picked Jake ****ing Locker, another surefire bust that some how many didn't see coming.
 
Jens1893 said:
Depends on how we define 2nd or 3rd chances. I'm thinking Paxton Lynch here and I am not sure he's gonna get a 2nd chance. And Lynch showed how quickly you can outstay your welcome when it doesn't work.

When I look at the starters from this weekend I'd say Bradford, Fitzpatrick, Keenum, Taylor and Foles are the only guys who got several chances and 2 were starting because the actual starter (Jameis and Wentz) were unavailable. Brees, Smith, Cousins and Jimmy G are on their 2nd (or 3rd in Smith's case) teams, but none of them changed teams because they sucked.
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It's not just moving to a different team, but riding the bench for a while (Cousins, Flacco, hell even Brady), and/or getting benched for a while because you suck and getting a second chance on the same team (almost every QB in the league).

Hell, if you want an example on both extremes: Elway got a "second chance" after getting benched for sucking, and on the other extreme, so did Ryan Leaf.

If you've got the physical tools, the no fun league will give you a second chance.

The most important thing for Montez is that he's (hopefully) learned that he needs to always be working to get better, both mentally and physically.

If he's learned that singular lesson, has a great year, gets drafted, gets out in front of his skis and sucks, but keeps working to get better, he'll get a second chance.

All in all, if you're gonna go in the first 2, maybe 3 rounds, you go.
 
Jens1893 said:
At the end of the day it's all a gamble. If you wait too long you may end up like Matt Barkley, who was touted as an early first round pick before he went back to USC for another year and shredded his draft stock there. Barkley is now on his sixth team.

I just feel like Montez needs work and things will have to align for him in a certain way, more than they may have to for others, if he wants to establish himself as a legit NFL starter, which he has the athletic potential to do. How far he'll go is all down to the mental things as athletically the sky's the limit.
Click to expand...

I agree with you 100% on this.

Montez has all the physical tools but last season his performances were all over the chart. He had some quality games but he also had some "What in the **** was that?" games. Does anyone think the Montez we saw last season was ready for the combination of pressure, complexity, and defensive skill of the NFL.

It seems he has made a solid jump already this season. Very well may have to do with his new QB coach, may also just be some maturity kicking in.

Either way based on the jump from last year to this year so far and if it continues he will move himself up the draft boards. There is however a big difference in money and in opportunity between being a top 50 pick and being a top 250 pick. Unless he is pretty solidly locked into the top of the draft he would probably be better off sticking around for another year. He isn't likely to drop much and that extra year could mean moving up significantly.

Another potential factor. We give him grief about flashing the frat signs and some other stuff. All that though is an indication that he is enjoying being a college student and college football player. If he isn't going to go high in the draft that may be another reason for him to consider sticking around an extra year. Not a deciding reason but a part of the decision.
 
Medford M. said:
Essentially, Allen is the prospect that old-fashioned, non analytic scouts believe is best. Tall, big arm, and he played under center in college. You saw several of these old time football scouts and personnel literally outright dismiss his poor stats and horrendous accuracy.

These types still can't fathom that production should be the first thing you look at with a QB. Allen is widely believed to be a massive bust in the making. If I was a Bills fan, I would have been as despondent as I was when my Titans picked Jake ****ing Locker, another surefire bust that some how many didn't see coming.
Click to expand...
I screamed “Nooooooooooooo” at the top of my lungs in a crowded restaurant at lunch when I saw the buffs drafted Tebow. That was the end of my active Broncos fandom.
 
To me, first 2 rounds means you go. 4 or lower, you stay (especially at QB). Where it get interesting is round 3.

If round 3 is where you're projected, it's a tough call. I can understand going either way. If it were me, I'd see if I could get an insurance policy for injury, and stay in college. If I couldn't get one, I honestly don't know what I'd do...
 
chitownbuff said:
Steven Montez - QB - Buffaloes
NFL Draft Scout's Rob Rang listed Colorado redshirt junior QB Steven Montez as the top riser of the week after his performance on Saturday against Nebraska.
Rang's report starts with a doozy. "When discussing the top underclassmen quarterbacks, Auburn's Jarrett Stidham and Oregon's Justin Herbert get most of the attention but no one has been better than Montez over the first two weeks of the season," he writes. Montez (6'5/235) has been exceptional in those first two weeks, although the Colorado State pass defense leaves a lot to be desired. "Scouts have always been intrigued with Montez's size and howitzer of arm," Rang writes, "but it is the improved maturity and accuracy he has shown this season that has his stock on the rise." Montez entered the year as a potential Day 3 pick. It seems like that stock has improved considerably, and will continue to rise if this continues if he plays like this in conference action.
Source: NFL Draft Scout
Sep 10 - 4:52 PM
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The rise is real.
 
skibum said:
To me, first 2 rounds means you go. 4 or lower, you stay (especially at QB). Where it get interesting is round 3.

If round 3 is where you're projected, it's a tough call. I can understand going either way. If it were me, I'd see if I could get an insurance policy for injury, and stay in college. If I couldn't get one, I honestly don't know what I'd do...
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Are you taking financials into account here at all?
 
Jens1893 said:
Are you taking financials into account here at all?
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Yep. Injury risk is not zero.

But if you get injured your payout is, in fact, zero.

You have to think about maximizing upside, but you also need to consider limiting downside loss as well.

$750k today is worse than $10mm next year. But it's also a hell of a lot better than $0 next year.
 
I want nice things so I want Montez to come back next year - can You imagine how potent our offense will be then? just need to work on the RB situation.
 
My take is if Montez is projected to go mid 2nd round or higher then he should declare. Otherwise return for another year under Roper.
 
Pats take him in Rd. 2, dude is the heir apparent to Brady.

Stenstrom is the starter next year...

Until then, soak it all in!
 
Jens1893 said:
Do you mean my point, which I believe I made clear, or why people are so down on Allen and how his game will transition to the NFL?

I guess the main points why people are so skeptical about Allen in the NFL is that he regressed from his sophomore to junior year and that his college completion percentage (56.2%) is like a death sentence when it comes to projection QBs in the NFL. His physical traits aren't doubted by anyone, I think, but there's much more to being a NFL level QB than being a good athlete.
Click to expand...

I've got a different take on Josh Allen. I am from Wyoming (originally) and still follow the Pokes. Allen is a stud who is comfortable in a pro style offense. Yes, his completion percentage wasn't great but you have to realize he was working with an extremely young and inexperienced group at OL and WR. Hell, his Center was a true freshman from my hometown (he's a beast but probably played against 180 pound DL in HS) and started every game. His recievers were smart but slow. Never any separation at all. If anything, this probably prepared him a lot more than some of the QB's who were throwing to wide open dudes who could outrun any DB. Just my take. This kid has a huge arm, good attitude and work ethic and a huge amount of air space before he gets anywhere close to his ceiling.
 
MDBuff83 said:
Pats take him in Rd. 2, dude is the heir apparent to Brady.
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I wouldn't wish being Brady's replacement on anyone, much less a guy like Montez.

That whole house of cards might fall down then. Belichick might retire soon after or at the same time.

Would you want Montez to step in to replace Tom Brady under Josh McDaniels? What a nightmare.
 
If all he needs to work on is mental, he is going to go VERY high in the draft. NFL GM's and coaches know they can fix the mental side. They actually instill the mental aspects that THEY want and not have to override what a college QB coach did.
 
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