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2019 NFL Draft Thread

Buffnik said:
That also started with him making $3M at 18 years old instead of being in college. 26 years old and he has already made over $52M.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/bryce-harper-8658/cash-earnings/
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That’s great, but that’s not really relevant to Murray’s current situation and the comparisons to Harpers $330m contract.

Plus, he can still go to baseball in 2-3 years if the NFL doesn’t work out. It’s really a no brainer for him to choose football right now.
 
@MtnBuff RG3 was drafted in 2012. I didn’t join this site until 2015, so you definitely don’t remember me gushing over him at any point.

To your made up point, I understand that a QB basing his entire game on running isn’t going to work. Murray isn’t that guy, though, and it’s lazy to suggest that. I’ve already posted multiple items that suggests he is an elite college passer from the pocket.
 
Jens1893 said:
Did anyone read that Mtn post?
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The first sentence only, as usual. No upside to reading beyond that point.

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Jens1893 said:


Good luck if that's his mindset about money.
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At the top level, it's no contest. Peyton Manning made more than any other football player and his career earnings from football were $248 million. Rodgers will probably eclipse him, but it's hard to see him getting to $300 million, let alone $330 million. If he plays out his contract as currently structured he'd finish the 2023 season with $313 million, earning $25M in the last year. Stafford might also get to $300M, but it's going to be difficult for others given how the structure has changed for first round picks. Let's say Cam Newton signs the same contract extension that Stafford did two years ago, bumped up by 5%- he'd get to the same level of service as Stafford and he'd still be $4M behind Stafford. Same thing with Luck.

But Harper's already made $52 million from baseball earnings, and he's guaranteed by age 26 to get to $382 Million. Pujols, Sabathia, and Cabrera have already surpassed Peyton Manning, and Kershaw, Greinke, Arenado, Harper, Cano, Price, Stanton, and Machado are guaranteed to. There's also guys like Scherzer, Felix Hernandez, and Trout that will almost assuredly get there.

To @TSchekler 's point, there's an amount of risk mitigation to going with football as he'll probably get $20M (which is enough to set you up for life if you're smart) before he even throws a pass, which is what he wanted from baseball.
 
TSchekler said:
I don't pay attention to ****ty SEC football, but is Metcalf a good player or is he an underwear olympics winner? Obviously a major physical specimen that I could totally see some team drooling over and taking in the 1st round, but 26 receptions for 569 yards and 5 TDs last year is pretty pedestrian.
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A neck injury kept him out quite a bit. He also has quite the pedigree. His father and two uncles all played in the NFL. We’ll see if that translates to much on the field. I wouldn’t spend a first or second rounder on him, but I think he’ll do alright .
 
David Sills is going to be an interesting guy to watch in the draft. So productive at WVU. 6’4” 211 lbs and ran a 4.57 with a pretty noticeable stumble in his first few steps.
 
tante said:
Do you think Harper or Mahomes will make more over their career?
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If Mahomes has a 15-20 year HOF career, he will probably crush Harpers total earnings.

The wild card people aren’t talking about here is what things look like after the new NFL CBA is worked out. I imagine the PA is going to demand some kind of stipulations for fully guaranteed contracts, and a salary cap that allows their elite contracts to get more in line with NBA and MLB.
 
Gary Indiana said:
A neck injury kept him out quite a bit. He also has quite the pedigree. His father and two uncles all played in the NFL. We’ll see if that translates to much on the field. I wouldn’t spend a first or second rounder on him, but I think he’ll do alright .
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Well, he just ran a 4.33... at 6’3+ 228 lbs...
 
TSchekler said:
How many players make that and what is the likliehood that Murray would get to that point? Why are we using the top 3 contracts in baseball history as a benchmark for what he’s missing out on by going to the NFL? Is a 5’10” 200 lb guy going to hit 35+ HRs and drive in 120 RBIs year after year to warrant that? Highly doubtful. At best, he’s probably looking at an Andrew McCutchen type career and contract (3 years $50m).

Again, the elite money in baseball is much better than the elite money in football. That’s not up for debate. However, Murray has a much better chance to become an elite QB making $25m/year than he does an elite baseball player making that kind of money.
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Murray was asked about Harper's contract specifically and seemed to think it's no big deal because his yearly average is lower than that of the top level NFL QBs. Read the context.
 
TSchekler said:
If Mahomes has a 15-20 year HOF career, he will probably crush Harpers total earnings.

The wild card people aren’t talking about here is what things look like after the new NFL CBA is worked out. I imagine the PA is going to demand some kind of stipulations for fully guaranteed contracts, and a salary cap that allows their elite contracts to get more in line with NBA and MLB.
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The owners will never go for that.

And further to your point: IF Mahomes has a 15-20 year Hall of Fame career and is still able to play at a really high level in his late 30s, he could quite possibly get there, yes. Harper has that money secured no matter what if he's able to physically play baseball until age 39. And he has all that tied up and secured at age 26, Mahomes is 23.

If Harper becomes Albert Pjuols and his production falls off a cliff, he has 330m coming his way. If you sign such a contract in the NFL and your production falls off a cliff, you'll have done really well if you can play on that contract for 3 years.
 
Jens1893 said:
Murray was asked about Harper's contract specifically and seemed to think it's no big deal because his yearly average is lower than that of the top level NFL QBs. Read the context.
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Yeah, he shouldn’t have said that but he’s defending his decision when asked about it.

In the larger context, he made the right choice, financially.
 
Jens1893 said:
The owners will never go for that.

And further to your point: IF Mahomes has a 15-20 year Hall of Fame career and is still able to play at a really high level in his late 30s, he could quite possibly get there, yes. Harper has that money secured no matter what if he's able to physically play baseball until age 39. And he has all that tied up and secured at age 26, Mahomes is 23.

If Harper becomes Albert Pjuols and his production falls off a cliff, he has 330m coming his way. If you sign such a contract in the NFL and your production falls off a cliff, you'll have done really well if you can play on that contract for 3 years.
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We’ll see. Cousins signed a fully guaranteed contract and set the precedent. You don’t think Mahomes is going to demand something very close to a fully guaranteed contract? And when he does, do you really think the Chiefs are going to say “no thanks” and let him walk? The moment the Vikings gave Cousins that deal, the league lost a lot of leverage in those negotiations.
 
TSchekler said:
Yeah, he shouldn’t have said that but he’s defending his decision when asked about it.

In the larger context, he made the right choice, financially.
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End of the day he needs to do what he feels is right or what he wants. He's an adult capable of making his own adult decisions and taking responsibility for them like an adult. It's no concern of mine and it's certainly no business of mine to judge it.
 
TSchekler said:
We’ll see. Cousins signed a fully guaranteed contract and set the precedent. You don’t think Mahomes is going to demand something very close to a fully guaranteed contract? And when he does, do you really think the Chiefs are going to say “no thanks” and let him walk? The moment the Vikings gave Cousins that deal, the league lost a lot of leverage in those negotiations.
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I disagree about the conclusion, especially since Cousins wasn’t as productive as his contract would’ve demanded. He got his but many GMs will tell agents “but what about Kirk Cousins?” and get crickets...
 
TSchekler said:
We’ll see. Cousins signed a fully guaranteed contract and set the precedent. You don’t think Mahomes is going to demand something very close to a fully guaranteed contract? And when he does, do you really think the Chiefs are going to say “no thanks” and let him walk? The moment the Vikings gave Cousins that deal, the league lost a lot of leverage in those negotiations.
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But Cousins was on the open market and could negotiate his contract with anyone who wished to talk to him, Mahomes may never get there. Plus it's only a 3 year contract and I believe he took a little less money in exchange for that as well. They could've easily made it a five year+ deal and put some more years in there for show. End of the day Matt Ryan got more money fully guaranteed at signing (94.5m v 84m) than Cousins did and Ryan had his salary guaranteed for 3 years as well.
 
Jens1893 said:
But Cousins was on the open market and could negotiate his contract with anyone who wished to talk to him, Mahomes may never get there. Plus it's only a 3 year contract and I believe he took a little less money in exchange for that as well. They could've easily made it a five year+ deal and put some more years in there for show. End of the day Matt Ryan got more money fully guaranteed at signing (94.5m v 84m) than Cousins did and Ryan had his salary guaranteed for 3 years as well.
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The shorter contracts in the NFL are more beneficial for the player. If Cousins has a bounce back year in 2019 and is solid in 2020, he’ll be looking at the same situation in 2021. For QBs, I think shorter, fully guaranteed contracts are going to be the norm going forward.
 
TSchekler said:
The shorter contracts in the NFL are more beneficial for the player. If Cousins has a bounce back year in 2019 and is solid in 2020, he’ll be looking at the same situation in 2021. For QBs, I think shorter, fully guaranteed contracts are going to be the norm going forward.
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That's very possible. Even the superstars don't get contracts that "guarantee" you more than 3 years. If you get your contract structured in a way that makes it difficult for the team to get out of before 3 years are up (and that's essentially what guaranteed means in the NFL), you've done well. The norm there is about 2.

Plus the thing with Harper's contract is he traded security for flexibility. It's a two way deal and both sides commit to each other for 13 years, neither side has an out. The franchise knows it has to pay the player amount X no matter what and the same holds true for the player. He has to play for amount X for 13 years.
 
I think what people also leave out of the baseball vs football debate for Murray are his chances of hitting it big in either sport. I'd argue he has a much better chance at doing so in football than baseball. The A's took him much higher than most would have, he was ranked in the 30s for 40s by most baseball expert types. He has had 1 good year of college baseball, he didn't play the first year, and OPSed 400 in only about 50 at bats the other year. He also DHed as a HS senior. He majorly lacks reps, so on top of the 7-8 years he'd have to go through league minimum and then arb eligible, he'd probably need at least a couple of years in the minors. Also factor in if he isn't able to play SS or CF at a high level. And then factor in if he can't hit a curveball. He's never going to get Bryce Harper money.

At least in football you know he's super mobile and has a great arm, you just aren't sure the size and/or offense can translate.
 
A few NFL superstars are going to be able to demand fully or close to fully guaranteed contracts just as they have in recent years.

The NFLPA can demand guaranteed contracts all the want but the effectiveness of that union compared to the baseball union is a whole different thing.

Mark Schlereth has spoken often about how the NFLPA will fold in negotiations and how the owners know it.

Also a lot of assumptions about Murray becoming an elite level NFL QB for at least 15 years. Possible but not likely.

Compare the earnings of a second or third tier MLB player to a comparable NFL player and the baseball player comes out way ahead.

Even a guy people hate like Ian Desmond got 5 years, 70 million guaranteed in baseball. 30 year old DJ LeMahieu a marginal all-star just got $24 million over 2 years.
 
White_Rabbit said:
I think what people also leave out of the baseball vs football debate for Murray are his chances of hitting it big in either sport. I'd argue he has a much better chance at doing so in football than baseball. The A's took him much higher than most would have, he was ranked in the 30s for 40s by most baseball expert types. He has had 1 good year of college baseball, he didn't play the first year, and OPSed 400 in only about 50 at bats the other year. He also DHed as a HS senior. He majorly lacks reps, so on top of the 7-8 years he'd have to go through league minimum and then arb eligible, he'd probably need at least a couple of years in the minors. Also factor in if he isn't able to play SS or CF at a high level. And then factor in if he can't hit a curveball. He's never going to get Bryce Harper money.

At least in football you know he's super mobile and has a great arm, you just aren't sure the size and/or offense can translate.
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A lot of guys are super mobile and have great arms. How many 5'10" superstar QBs are there?

It's a question both ways.
 
MtnBuff said:
A lot of guys are super mobile and have great arms. How many 5'10" superstar QBs are there?

It's a question both ways.
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How many guys that size ever got a chance? Do you seriously believe that the 1 inch between Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray makes all the difference in the world? Or the 4 inches between Murray and Mayfield? Or the 2 inches between Murray and Drew Brees, a Hall of Famer?

As far as I'm concerned, if you can play and have the arm, you can play. NFL franchises get far too hung up on sheer height coz the nonsense that is "NFL group think". And Elway is the ringleader there.
 
Jens1893 said:
How many guys that size ever got a chance? Do you seriously believe that the 1 inch between Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray makes all the difference in the world? Or the 4 inches between Murray and Mayfield? Or the 2 inches between Murray and Drew Brees, a Hall of Famer?

As far as I'm concerned, if you can play and have the arm, you can play. NFL franchises get far too hung up on sheer height coz the nonsense that is "NFL group think". And Elway is the ringleader there.
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Not saying he can't be the first but if it didn't matter there would already be some. A lot more short QBs fail than succeed. I'm actually a lot more concerned about him holding up physically at about 200 lbs. Yes he bulked up to 207 for the combine but he is naturally lighter than that and is a guy who is going to take a lot of hits.

Wilson is one of my favorite QBs and I argued in favor of Mayfield last year. I don't see that with Murray. I could be wrong, lots of people are about QBs but I think people are selling themselves on him because of the lack of legitimate QB prospects in this draft.
 
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